Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Djgb13

Hillman or Ball?

Recommended Posts

Theres a lot of hype about Denver's RB Montee Ball and mock drafts have him going in 4-5th rounds. However, from the reports it has Hillman winning the starting job so far. Preseason will give us a better look at how things are but still Ive got to pose the question. Who should you draft? If Hillman is winning the starting RB position then you would think to draft him. However, according to The Post concedes Montee Ball "is to be the featured back" eventually, and the Broncos hope he "develops into a 15- to 20-carry back in the NFL". When would he be the feature back? This year? Next year? It makes drafting either one of these guys hard since you dont know who will be the one actually carrying the rock. So who would you say it would be smart to draft?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on format - in dynasty leagues Ball is the guy. In redraft it could be pretty evenly split. Waiting till the preseason shakes out will help determine who's the back to target. Ball is going mid 4th and Hillman gets taken in the 9th. If neither runs away with the job during preseason I'd advise you to look elsewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm a Hillman owner in a keeper format, and I as much as I hate to admit it, I'm chalking this Hillman starting hype up to the Broncos simply wanting to make Ball earn it. I'd be really really surprised if Hillman was starting week 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on format - in dynasty leagues Ball is the guy. In redraft it could be pretty evenly split. Waiting till the preseason shakes out will help determine who's the back to target. Ball is going mid 4th and Hillman gets taken in the 9th. If neither runs away with the job during preseason I'd advise you to look elsewhere.

amen i agree with this person statement on all counts

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hillman seems like he's built like a scat-back/change of pace player more than a feature back. Reminds me of Dexter McCluster when I look at him.

 

Everyone knows that if a RB is gonna earn playing time in a Manning led offense, you better know how to pass protect. If Ball can prove he can handle that responsibility, he's the guy to own.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Depends on format - in dynasty leagues Ball is the guy. In redraft it could be pretty evenly split. Waiting till the preseason shakes out will help determine who's the back to target. Ball is going mid 4th and Hillman gets taken in the 9th. If neither runs away with the job during preseason I'd advise you to look elsewhere.

This, Ball is the stronger player but as a rookie their could be plenty of carries for Hillman. Ball can mess up a block and be on the bench... It is a lot of risk to take with a 4th round pick. If you want to take one I would lean towards Hillman just because of the lower price tag.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hillman seems like he's built like a scat-back/change of pace player more than a feature back. Reminds me of Dexter McCluster when I look at him.

 

Everyone knows that if a RB is gonna earn playing time in a Manning led offense, you better know how to pass protect. If Ball can prove he can handle that responsibility, he's the guy to own.

Hillman's weight is up this year--he's at 200 after playing far under that last year. Still, I think his good camp means he'll get 8-12 touches a game instead of 5-8. They want Ball to hammer teams 15+ times, and get the goal line work.

 

Ultimately, I'll guess about a 60/40 split of Ball/Hillman, with Ball getting an even higher percentage of the rushing scores. Disclosure: I own both guys, but am probably still a little down on Hillman after he looked so bad last year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't really matter anyway. Manning calls his own plays and wants to throw it every down, so the more important qustion is who gets the goalline work, and that's going to almost assuredly be Ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't really matter anyway. Manning wants to throw it every down.

 

Wrong. I shortened your quote to the part I want to address. I don't have a horse in this race but to use this as a reason is incorrect. If you want, you can go back and look up yearly stats for yourself but Manning's Colts and even the Broncos liked to run the ball.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Wrong. I shortened your quote to the part I want to address. I don't have a horse in this race but to use this as a reason is incorrect. If you want, you can go back and look up yearly stats for yourself but Manning's Colts and even the Broncos liked to run the ball.

 

All the top QBs outside of Rodgers like to run the ball a lot. Rodgers I think is warming up to it, but they just never have the personnel to do it. I think people would be surprised if they look up the stats, usually the Saints, Colts (Manning Colts) and Pats have top 10 rushing offenses. The problem is though that they tend to spread out who runs it so it's tough for fantasy purposes to get that bellcow.

 

From the reports I've read out of practice Ball has that job. Peyton is working with him after practice teaching him pass protection. If Peyton is making all that effort it's because he wants to make sure he's going to get protected, not just on a whim for a guy that won't start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Wrong. I shortened your quote to the part I want to address. I don't have a horse in this race but to use this as a reason is incorrect. If you want, you can go back and look up yearly stats for yourself but Manning's Colts and even the Broncos liked to run the ball.

I don't know. THese are the stats for Manning lead teams over the years since Edge and Manning split up.

 

 

year       passing yards rank              rushing yards rank
2007             6                              18
2008             5                              31
2009             2                              32
2010             1                              29
2012             5                              16

 

Probably poor word choice on my part. I should have said Manning teams don't rush for a lot of yards, so it only matters who gets the goalline work. I doubt this year will be some banner year for Manning's runningback.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Manning either calls the running play or audibles to the RB a lot at the GL, I like Ball this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't know. THese are the stats for Manning lead teams over the years since Edge and Manning split up.

year       passing yards rank              rushing yards rank
2007             6                              18
2008             5                              31
2009             2                              32
2010             1                              29
2012             5                              16

Probably poor word choice on my part. I should have said Manning teams don't rush for a lot of yards, so it only matters who gets the goalline work. I doubt this year will be some banner year for Manning's runningback.

 

I agree that it's very likely that the Denver backfield becomes a fantasy mess. And now that you've rephrased what you meant, I agree with it. While the rush yards may not be there (they were for Edgerrin, but saying Ball can be Edge right out of the gate is silly), the attempts will. How those attempts are divided and what the RBs do with them is up for debate. I'm certainly avoiding Ball at his current adp and haven't decided on Hillman.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly? I'd rather spend a 13th rounder on Moreno. Peyton has a way of making sure the guys he trusts get opportunities (Tamme, Stokley, Collie, etc). And last year, Moreno proved he can do quite well in that offense if he can stay healthy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

lol i think the broncos rb postion is getting to much air time . amen . i will wait to see what happens in the preseason

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly? I'd rather spend a 13th rounder on Moreno. Peyton has a way of making sure the guys he trusts get opportunities (Tamme, Stokley, Collie, etc). And last year, Moreno proved he can do quite well in that offense if he can stay healthy.

:thumbsup: This

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That ralphster guy is smoking something special. Knowshon is the back to own with Fox's love for veterans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly? I'd rather spend a 13th rounder on Moreno. Peyton has a way of making sure the guys he trusts get opportunities (Tamme, Stokley, Collie, etc). And last year, Moreno proved he can do quite well in that offense if he can stay healthy.

Agreed. Moreno has been a disappointment up to this point in his career but I think he gained the trust of Manning late in the season last year. I can't wrap my head around drafting Ball so early knowing Fox/Manning can put the rookie in the doghouse with one missed assignment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With regards to his current ADP Ball won't be on any of my squads. I may miss the boat but I don't want to be left holding 60 yards and maybe a TD weekly.

 

Hillman or Moreno I'd take a depth shot on late.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I still think it's Montee's job at the end of the day. Would be tough to stomach using a fourth on him though, given the uncertainty. A boom or bust pick for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm kind of curious if Hillman came out this year where he would have slotted into the RB prospects.

 

It's somewhat interesting to me that there is a big assumption that the rookie RB drafted his year at 58th overall seems to be the favorite over the 2nd year player drafted 67th overall last year.

 

Maybe that's b/c Hillman just played small though. We've seen him and haven't seen Ball and Ball appears to be a more physical, between the tackles guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is this a surprise to everyone? This is Stephen Davis / Deshaun Foster all over again...

 

Coach Fox has always had this type of backfield-

 

Foster/Davis

Stewart/Williams

Hillman/Ball

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm kind of curious if Hillman came out this year where he would have slotted into the RB prospects.

 

It's somewhat interesting to me that there is a big assumption that the rookie RB drafted his year at 58th overall seems to be the favorite over the 2nd year player drafted 67th overall last year.

 

Maybe that's b/c Hillman just played small though. We've seen him and haven't seen Ball and Ball appears to be a more physical, between the tackles guy.

Yeah, Hillman being so below-average last year kind of makes that a tough one. Bigger and presumably better Hillman might have been a better prospect, but I think he had to go through the rookie year to get where he is now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why is this a surprise to everyone? This is Stephen Davis / Deshaun Foster all over again...

 

Coach Fox has always had this type of backfield-

 

Foster/Davis

Stewart/Williams

Hillman/Ball

Manning doesn't do that though, and it's his offense. Peyton likes to find one guy he can totally rely on and leave it at that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Manning doesn't do that though, and it's his offense. Peyton likes to find one guy he can totally rely on and leave it at that.

 

That's a good point. Typically pass protection is the biggest thing a rookie needs to get a handle on though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Knowing what we now know - Fox not liking rookies, Manning likes one guy and runs the offense, Elway stating twice before they envision Hillman as their 3rd down back - I'd expect that Knowshon would start the season. He's made of glass though, so I'd imagine Ball/Hillman make their presence felt early on (by week 3 or so). What ratio the time share ends up at would be mostly up to Ball. If he's running with authority and not missing his blocking assignments he'll have value. If not then its 50/50 timeshare and neither will go for more than RB3 or 4 numbers.

 

At this moment I'd prefer to stay away from the the DEN backfield.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I consider Moreno kind of a non-factor except when/if they use him as a blocker and occasional receiver on passing downs. With Hillman seeming much improved, I could see a scenario where he and Ball split 350-400 carries in some fashion, with Moreno totaling just 40-60 or so on the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless Ball is just a lights out good runner expect a lot of Moreno at RB in Denver at least this year or at least until M. Ball learns to pass block well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

That's a good point. Typically pass protection is the biggest thing a rookie needs to get a handle on though.

Wasn't Peyton loading Ball's ability to pass block during OTAs? Or am I dreaming that up?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Living in Charlotte I've seen my fair share of Fox.

RBBC, trust me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×