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The Football Guru

Instant Fantasy Analysis - RB Saquon Barkley, Giants

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Perhaps the most complete running back prospect I have ever seen, it is conceivable Barkley can have a Marshall Faulk-like impact on this offense. Barkley is ridiculously elusive for a 230-pound back, but he also bring the power, which often gets lost when people only watches highlight tapes. The Penn State product averaged nearly six yards per carry for his career despite suffering from poor line play. The most common knock against Barkley is his number of negative runs, but the same was said about Barry Sanders. Barkley understands he has the ability to make something out of nothing. Assuming the Giants keep improving their line - they added OT Nate Solder in free agency - Barkley shouldn't need to do the same thing in the NFL nearly as often. He is also a natural as a receiver, which means he will be the unquestioned three-down back in New York for as long as he wants. He should be the clear 1.01 pick in dynasty formats and is worthy of a first-round pick in redrafts.

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Yea low rb1.

 

Very good pick up for the Gmen.

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Yea low rb1.

 

Very good pick up for the Gmen.

Great pick, they have needed a difference maker and pair him with obj the offense can get some identity. He will be like Zeke, workhorse. Maybe even better who knows, depends if the QB can get some consistency.

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He could be better then the Zeke, but I won't count on Zekes ff numbers

 

They don't have nearly the Oline the Cowboys have.

 

But agree he will be the piece that I think can get them into the playoffs

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Fantasy value guys? Back end rnd1, mid rnd 2 seems likely.

 

Yeah, I'm adding those now. Sometimes you forget to do what you're supposed to do when you've spent the last month evaluating them as real players :D :P

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I think in ppr I would rank Mccaffery over him.

 

I would rank Mccaferry over M Gordon in ppr leagues

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I think in ppr I would rank Mccaffery over him.

 

I would rank Mccaferry over M Gordon in ppr leagues

 

If Carolina doesn't go with a early-down back tomorrow, I could get on board with this. I like C-Mac as a three-down back (Carolina's o-line gave him no shot last year), but I know there are plenty of folks who have already written him off as a runner.

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The Giants made a mistake. They need so much help and then they grab a RB at #2? Oh my. They will get like 4 wins next year if they are lucky.

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I'll take the over four wins.

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If Carolina doesn't go with a early-down back tomorrow, I could get on board with this. I like C-Mac as a three-down back (Carolina's o-line gave him no shot last year), but I know there are plenty of folks who have already written him off as a runner.

 

yah I am just assuming they are adding an RB tomorrow, someone like Chubb imo

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I think in ppr I would rank Mccaffery over him.

 

I would rank Mccaferry over M Gordon in ppr leagues

 

I don't see Mccaffery taking a 65 point leap

 

I also look at how Gordon was used at the end of the season, and the Chargers now realize to just give him the ball every way possible

 

I think Gordon is a lock for 10+ td's

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As of right now, my top 10 RB's are...

  1. Johnson
  2. Elliott
  3. Barkley
  4. Bell
  5. Gurley
  6. Bell
  7. Freeman
  8. Kamara
  9. Hunt
  10. Gordon

 

I'm sure this will change about 100+ times between now and September.

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I don't see Mccaffery taking a 65 point leap

 

I also look at how Gordon was used at the end of the season, and the Chargers now realize to just give him the ball every way possible

 

I think Gordon is a lock for 10+ td's

 

Yeah maybe, but I think there was plenty of work left for Mccaffery.

 

Now that Stewart is gone.

 

I can see more a lot more rushing att then he had last season, he only had 117 for only 435 yards and two rushing tds.

 

Even if those number double that would put him within reach.

 

I can easily see him gaining more then 65 plus ppr points.

 

Proverbs 27.

 

Thanks for your reply.

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I think he'll be a more consistent version of Kareem Hunt. Similar big play and receiving ability, but better at taking a no yard play and turning into 4 yards and doesn't have a coach that will suffocate his numbers. His ability to take nothing and turn into a little something, is what really separated him in college to me. A lot of big play backs, turn four yards into no yards, always trying to hit the homerun.

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I think he'll be a more consistent version of Kareem Hunt. Similar big play and receiving ability, but better at taking a no yard play and turning into 4 yards and doesn't have a coach that will suffocate his numbers. His ability to take nothing and turn into a little something, is what really separated him in college to me. A lot of big play backs, turn four yards into no yards, always trying to hit the homerun.

I would agree with you if the giants didn't draft him. I am stunned the giants didn't trade back some. They have so many needs and a QB with one foot in retirement.

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I agree with post # 16.

 

And that's exactly why the Gmen made the right move.

 

Leviticus 19:12.

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As of right now, my top 10 RB's are...

  1. Johnson
  2. Elliott
  3. Barkley
  4. Bell
  5. Gurley
  6. Bell
  7. Freeman
  8. Kamara
  9. Hunt
  10. Gordon

 

I'm sure this will change about 100+ times between now and September.

 

wow

a rookie, playing behind the Giants Oline, ahead of Gurley and Leveon, gimme some of that good stuff

 

although I do give you credit for listing Bell twice, cause hes that good

 

what you are saying is that you think Barkley is going to have one of the best 5 rookie RB seasons of all-time to justify that pick

 

and while he has the talent and he might, it is highly unlikely

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wow

a rookie, playing behind the Giants Oline, ahead of Gurley and Leveon, gimme some of that good stuff

 

although I do give you credit for listing Bell twice, cause hes that good

Im with you on this one

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Perhaps the most complete running back prospect I have ever seen, it is conceivable Barkley can have a Marshall Faulk-like impact on this offense. Barkley is ridiculously elusive for a 230-pound back, but he also bring the power, which often gets lost when people only watches highlight tapes. The Penn State product averaged nearly six yards per carry for his career despite suffering from poor line play. The most common knock against Barkley is his number of negative runs, but the same was said about Barry Sanders. Barkley understands he has the ability to make something out of nothing. Assuming the Giants keep improving their line - they added OT Nate Solder in free agency - Barkley shouldn't need to do the same thing in the NFL nearly as often. He is also a natural as a receiver, which means he will be the unquestioned three-down back in New York for as long as he wants. He should be the clear 1.01 pick in dynasty formats and is worthy of a first-round pick in redrafts.

 

Now all they need is someone that bags groceries. Been a while for a RB to be ultra-productive in a Giants uniform and don't think lightning strikes next year. Add Stewart is around, it would be a rookie move to draft this guy in the first 2 rounds in a regular draft when being wrong isn't an option.

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Stewart is a good pick up, he will make for a good back up.

 

Gallman could be a interesting late pick up in ppr.

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This kid is a smoother running Adrian Peterson with 10lbs that can catch and is intelligent enough to pick up the blitz.

 

Seriously, what's not to love?

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This kid is a smoother running Adrian Peterson with 10lbs that can catch and is intelligent enough to pick up the blitz.

 

Seriously, what's not to love?

Ron Dayne was a can't miss pick also. Go giants.

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Ron Dayne was a can't miss pick also. Go giants.

 

If you just seriously compared Barkley to Ron F*cking Dayne, you should leave and never come back. Seriously, consider another hobby.

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If you just seriously compared Barkley to Ron F*cking Dayne, you should leave and never come back. Seriously, consider another hobby.

Sure. Coming from someone who can't recall the Ron Dayne college record setting NFL hype going into his NFL draft. People were saying he was the most complete and sure thing running back there can be. But you argue in retrospect to what he produced in the pros because that is all you got.

 

And by the way, as crappy as Ron Dayne was, that giants first round pick still has more yards rushing in the NFL than Barkley.

 

It's easy for someone like you who can only name call as a means for an argument and to talk big talk.

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Ron Dayne was a can't miss pick also. Go giants.

Dayne was the 11th pick, not the 2nd. 11th picks are never considered "can't miss". Pipe down.

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Sure. Coming from someone who can't recall the Ron Dayne college record setting NFL hype going into his NFL draft. People were saying he was the most complete and sure thing running back there can be. But you argue in retrospect to what he produced in the pros because that is all you got.

And by the way, as crappy as Ron Dayne was, that giants first round pick still has more yards rushing in the NFL than Barkley.

It's easy for someone like you who can only name call as a means for an argument and to talk big talk.

Yeah Dayne was all that and a box of chocolates, but what does he have too do with the Barkely pick?

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And yet another child speaks up...

When you say things like the 11th pick in a draft was considered can't miss you need to be corrected. You're welcome.

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When you say things like the 11th pick in a draft was considered can't miss you need to be corrected. You're welcome.

Dayne was hyped a ton, just like Barkley, Curtis Enis, Trent Richardson, Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, etc...

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Ki Jana Carter is about the only bust I can think of that came with this kind of hype. Barkley showed he can do it all at an elite level in college, now he just needs to make the transition when the running lanes decrease and disappear quickly.

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wow

a rookie, playing behind the Giants Oline, ahead of Gurley and Leveon, gimme some of that good stuff

 

although I do give you credit for listing Bell twice, cause hes that good

 

what you are saying is that you think Barkley is going to have one of the best 5 rookie RB seasons of all-time to justify that pick

 

and while he has the talent and he might, it is highly unlikely

 

LOL, yeah, I don't know why I had Bell in there twice. The second one should have been McCoy.

 

In 2016, according to football outsiders, the Giants ranked 24th in run blocking. That year, they had no quality RB and only Beckham as a legit receiving threat. Last year, while Beckham missed 75% other their games, it allowed Engram to develop as a pass catcher. Along with that, and mediocre play from the RB position, the Giants still improved on run blocking, and ranked 15th. This year, they'll have a better developed TE, Beckham, and now an elite prospect in Barkley. If the Giants' line can improve without Beckham in the lineup, why would you not expect them to improve even more with him back plus Barkley?

 

Yes, Bell is still relatively young, but he is coming off of a 406 touch season. Technically, he wasn't as good last year as he was the year before when he touched the ball 70 less times. In 2016, he had 261 rushes and 75 receptions, and he had 1884 yards and 9 TD's. In a PPR league, that's 317.4 points and 0.94 points every time he touched the ball. Last year, he had 321 rushes and 85 receptions with 1946 yards and 11 TD's for 345.6 PPR fantasy points. That equates to 0.85 points per touch. That's a 10% drop despite a 17% increase in workload. From a fantasy perspective, this is Bell's (fantasy), points per touch during his career...

2013: 0.76

2014: 0.99

2015: 0.81 (injury - only 6 games)

2016: 0.94 (4 game suspension - 12 games)

2017: 0.85

 

I think coming off another season where he doesn't participate in camp, I think he's going to be slow to start and I believe he'll get a lesser workload and as a result, less performance. Why? Because when you look at the 2014 season when he was younger, he had 373 touches, but still managed almost 1 fantasy point per touch. If you pro-rate 2016 to 16 games, he would have been at 448 touches! Now, he probably wouldn't have gotten that many had he played all 16 games, but the point is, in previous years, he's been more productive with more touches... until last year. I think it's a sign of the hits taking their toll.

 

With Gurley, I simply don't think he'll see the touches. I think they'll have Goff throw the ball more with the addition of Cooks and simply the maturation of Goff. I think Gurley receiving fantasy points will take a sizeable hit. Sure, I do believe his rushing could improve, but I don't think improve as much or more than his receiving will decline.

 

With Barkley, I think he gets a significant chunk of the workload in an offense that could be extremely efficient.

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I agree, nice post TB, but somehow see Barkleys usage in the running game dependent upon Giants ability to stay in the game.

 

Agreed. It pretty much comes down to whether or not you believe that the addition of Barkley and Beckham being back are enough to keep the ball in their offenses hands long enough to give the defense help. Will they put points on the board and allow the defense to play from an advantageous position? Will they run more plays to keep the defense off the field and the offense on the field? If you think the answer is "yes" to both of those questions, then you'd think you'd rate Barkley very high. If you think the answer is "no" to either one or both of those questions, then you'd likely rank Barkley lower.

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I agree, nice post TB, but somehow see Barkleys usage in the running game dependent upon Giants ability to stay in the game.

I disagree. this kid can catch the football. he can play on every down.

 

scouting report I read said he beats up linebackers on wheel routes, he's an effective separator in his routes, and is a good pass catcher.

 

I think he's fine regardless of situation.

 

also, someone earlier mentioned the Giants line was awful. Last years squad was awful, but they have acquired Solder from New England. He will fill the largest problem area on this line.

 

Hernandez was drafted with the second pick of round 2. hes a first round talent and is an especially good run blocker.

 

I'd bet money they slot him in right next to Solder and half of that line is fully rebuilt.

 

I'd say this line went from terrible last year to at least adequate this year. possibly better if this kid is as good as advertised.

 

I'm betting on a very good rookie season for Barkley

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I would agree with you Ray.

 

He’s a three down back, and he will respond and put up numbers too match it.

 

I

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Ki Jana Carter is about the only bust I can think of that came with this kind of hype. Barkley showed he can do it all at an elite level in college, now he just needs to make the transition when the running lanes decrease and disappear quickly.

ill try to get back to you on his name, but 1 year I read a book that said if you ever was to take a chance on a sure thing for a Rb this is the guy. he had like 3 TDs the first game and basically done.

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