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SMath3333

Gurley vs. Bell for the #1 pick in PPR Leagues

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I have seen the experts split on Bell vs. Gurley in PPR leagues. Clearly they are both studs and perhaps you cant go wrong selecting either one. But, here are ten reasons for selecting each. Im interested in other opinions.

 

Reasons for Selecting Bell over Gurley

1. Gurleys 2017 season was kinda flukey. Several long runs and receptions, some for TDs that are not likely to be replicated in 2018. Due for huge regression to the mean.

2. Bell will likely see more carries than Gurley and will likely outgain him in rushing yardage.

3. Bell will likely see more targets than Gurley and will likely have more receptions and receiving yards.

4. Bell has shown more consistency over the years, when hes not injured or in trouble. We saw Gurley suck in 2016, albeit under Jeff Fisher. Weve never seen Bell suck.

5. Bell is likely to be franchise tagged and will be motivated to play for his next contract.

6. Steelers may run Bell into the ground if they believe that they will let him go as a free agent next season. Lots of wear and tear, but lots of yardage.

7. Steelers offensive line > Rams OL

8. Steelers QB and WRs > Rams QB and WRs (= defenses cant stack the box vs the run)

9. Atlanta shut down Gurley in the playoffs. Will teams watch tape and scheme against Gurley in 18?

10. Rams signed Brandin Cooks in the offseason. He may be used more frequently around the goal line.

 

Reasons for selecting Gurley over Bell

1. Bell is a knucklehead. We dont know when/if he will sign. We dont know if he will get into off the field trouble (e.g. drugs, drunk driving, smacking his b!tch around, etc).

2. Bell is more injury prone.

3. Bell may show up to camp in less-than-peak condition and get off to a slow start ala 2017.

4. Gurley is younger. (Bell has more mileage)

5. Gurley is more likely to have more TD opportunities, as Steelers pass more often around the goal line.

6. Steelers will have a new offensive coordinator (= question mark about Bells usage in 18)

7. Sean McVay seems pretty committed to giving Gurley lots of opportunities.

8. Gurley was the #1 scoring RB in 2017 by a wide margin. Is therefore the safer bet?

9. Gurleys bye week is Week 12. Pretty late in the season. This allows you more time to work the waiver wire in preparation for his bye week.

10. Gurleys Yards per Carry and Yards per Reception were significantly better than Bell in 2017.

 

I will wait and see how the preseason plays out before making a decision but its a toss-up to me right now.

 

Any opinions either way?

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Bell

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If Bell gets a franchuse 1 year deal they will run him into the ground. He will be thE RB1. Take him. If he signs long term (which I doubt), then he is a coin flip RB1. Take him anyway.

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Last season 14 teamer ppr I had the second pick.

 

I was going with D Johnson, he was the first pick, I got lucky and picked Bell second.

 

Either way they will be two of the top three I think.

 

The Zeke is the other one. Dont forget that the Zeke wwas third best in avg per game points in both non ppr and ppr last season

 

Thanks.

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I'd expect Gurley to regress. 2000 yards and 19 TDs is a career type year, but even 75% of that is #1 overall worthy. Plus a year of tape and an offseason to study it does wonders for defenses. One more thing... Gurley was used heavily in the pass game probably out of necessity since the Rams didn't have much for weapons through the air. I mean he was 2nd in targets and 1st in receptions on the team. I don't think McVay would consider that optimal. Cooks will probably take a bunch of targets away.


On the other hand, with bell, he had a steep drop off in ypc last year, and you have to question if his mind will be right.


Seems like Gurley is the better option.

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Going into last season Gurley was coming off a season with a 3.2 avg per rush.

 

Last season Bell had 60 more rush att then the season before, that might have avg down too a very good 4.0 with 321rush att.

 

Now this season I will be in a non ppr league, the first one in a many seasons.

 

So my number one rb is the Zeke.

 

But if you have a top three pick one of those three would be the call, then it’s all about luck.

 

Thanks.

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Going into last season Gurley was coming off a season with a 3.2 avg per rush.

 

Last season Bell had 60 more rush att then the season before, that might have avg down too a very good 4.0 with 321rush att.

 

Now this season I will be in a non ppr league, the first one in a many seasons.

 

So my number one rb is the Zeke.

 

But if you have a top three pick one of those three would be the call, then its all about luck.

 

Thanks.

Yeah but Gurley had Jeff Fisher that year he had a 3.2 ypc average. Bell didn't have that excuse. Fisher is worth -1.5 ypc easy.

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Don't forget that Todd Haley is gone. The QB coach is taking over. From his time at Memphis (where Deangelo Williams broke a bunch of records), the assumption is he may favor a more up-tempo, no huddle, spread type offense, but he favored a power running scheme at Memphis. Bell has been in a zone blocking scheme forever.

 

That doesn't mean Fichtner can't adjust, but it would probably be worth keeping an eye on the wire for tidbits about scheme changes.

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Yeah but Gurley had Jeff Fisher that year he had a 3.2 ypc average. Bell didn't have that excuse. Fisher is worth -1.5 ypc easy.

Lol good reply.

 

But I have a question, wasn’t Fisher his coach in 2015 when Gurley has a 4.8 per rush avg?

 

Thanks.

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Gurley for me. He's two years younger and has more than 600 less touches on him then Bell.

 

Bell was over the dreaded 400 touches last year, has a new OC and this year's schedule is far more difficult imo.

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I have the #4 pick too... I think you cannot go wrong with ANY of these 4 RB's... but in a PPR league, do you take one of the BIG 4 runningbacks or do you take WR Antonio Brown? There appears to be more depth at RB this year compared to last year.

 

So what's better at pick #4 (in a 12 man PPR league), Brown/Howard (RB) or Elliott/Mike Evans (WR)?

 

 

I'll be happy to pick at #4 and take whichever RB is still there out of Bell, Gurley, Johnson and Elliott.

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I have the #4 pick too... I think you cannot go wrong with ANY of these 4 RB's... but in a PPR league, do you take one of the BIG 4 runningbacks or do you take WR Antonio Brown? There appears to be more depth at RB this year compared to last year.

 

So what's better at pick #4 (in a 12 man PPR league), Brown/Howard (RB) or Elliott/Mike Evans (WR)?

 

 

 

 

Antonio Brown is tempting at #4 but I just could not bring myself to pass on one of the top 4 stud running backs. I'm old school. I like that Elliott/Mike Evans combo and it is possible that Davante Adams might even still be there as well. I really, really like him this year with Rodgers back and Jordy Nelson gone.
I screw around with a mock draft simulator some and when I pick at #4 I prefer how my team shakes out a lot better when I take one of the stud RB's and build from there. It is obviously no guarantee that a real draft will play out the same way but it does give you a good idea of what kind of players will be available when you experiment with different strategies.

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Agreed.

 

I would go with the one of the top Rbs early, and rebound with either a Howard in the second or a Adams.

 

I would have no problem going rb/rb.

 

I wouldnt pass on one of the top four or even five best Rbs for Brown.

 

Of what new things Rbs have a lot of depth, you need too check out the WRs.

 

I always say their is more depth later in the draft for WRs then Rbs.

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Antonio Brown is tempting at #4 but I just could not bring myself to pass on one of the top 4 stud running backs. I'm old school. I like that Elliott/Mike Evans combo and it is possible that Davante Adams might even still be there as well. I really, really like him this year with Rodgers back and Jordy Nelson gone.
I screw around with a mock draft simulator some and when I pick at #4 I prefer how my team shakes out a lot better when I take one of the stud RB's and build from there. It is obviously no guarantee that a real draft will play out the same way but it does give you a good idea of what kind of players will be available when you experiment with different strategies.

 

Adams has always kind of been the guy i got late in drafts. Now that he is a number 1 receiver and on everyones radar i cant see drafting him with him getting the attention of defenses. Like to hear from some homers about who steps forward in GB at receiver that will make Rodgers deserving of number 1 qb status.

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Heavy on Bell if he holds out the preseason and plays on the franchise tag. He will need a game to get up to speed but will play stronger through the year and will catch 80+ and get many yards rushing.

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I still like DJ #1.

 

Which seems like it favors me since hes looking to fall to 3. But Id take him at 1 if I get that pick.

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Zeke.

 

No concern about the lack of offensive production from Zona?

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They haven't played even preseason yet. I'm confused.[/quote

 

Do you see them having offensive production problems this season?

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i think both will give #1 type numbers. i take bell because of consistency, strength of schedule (gurley gets 6 games vs 49ers, seahawks, and cards), and potential contract situation. Gurley is a top back, but is due to dip ... still should post good ff numbers.

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I dont trust Bell or Gurley.

 

I think DJ is the safest bet. Hes the entire offense.

I also believe hes the best back in football.

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Zeke should be in the conversation. Losing Dez make the offense better. Addition by subtraction.

To be the man you have to be the man. At least Dez has been there. Allen Hurns projection by this board is 688 yds and 4 TDs. I like Zeke, but is there anything that says respect the pass?

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Zeke should be in the conversation. Losing Dez make the offense better. Addition by subtraction.

I dont see it. I agree Zeke is a damn good back and has a damn good line. But hes gonna be running into stacked boxes all season until dak makes them do otherwise. And with the complete lack of proven production at te and wr, I just dont have faith he can do it.

 

Id have zeke #4 for that reason.

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The mistake here is thinking that Dez commanded so much respect last year. Defenses weren't scared of Dez. They were already keying on the run.

 

Now Dak doesn't have to waste downs trying to throw jump balls to Dez that he won't come down with.

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The mistake here is thinking that Dez commanded so much respect last year. Defenses weren't scared of Dez. They were already keying on the run.

 

Now Dak doesn't have to waste downs trying to throw jump balls to Dez that he won't come down with.

Your mistake is thinking Dak is legit, some of his stats should pacify you this year 3yds at a time makes a good qb rating.

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I'll be happy to pick at #4 and take whichever RB is still there out of Bell, Gurley, Johnson and Elliott.

 

You big wimp.

 

Jk, I'm the same way. Then you won't beat yourself up if you end up with the wrong RB because he fell to you.

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You big wimp.

 

Jk, I'm the same way. Then you won't beat yourself up if you end up with the wrong RB because he fell to you.

 

I like the idea of being guaranteed one of the 4 stud RBs and then picking in front of the other 3 stud RB owners in the 2nd round.

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I’m being paranoid here but all these guys smell like a trap and I want to take Kamara and be done with it.

 

Haha. I kind of agree with you. Kamara is a beast and I am shocked folks have been talking him down so much. I am dumb lucky that in 2 different 2 player keeper leagues I am getting to keep him as a FA keeper that counts as my round 8 pick in both leagues. :doublethumbsup: (12 team and 10 team leagues w/ $75 buy ins.)

 

One of the Leagues I have the option of keeping DJ as a 1st round keeper or Hopkins as a 3rd round keeper. Once everyone is paid up and we do the random draft order this will help me decide which one is my 2nd keeper.

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Haha. I kind of agree with you. Kamara is a beast and I am shocked folks have been talking him down so much. I am dumb lucky that in 2 different 2 player keeper leagues I am getting to keep him as a FA keeper that counts as my round 8 pick in both leagues. :doublethumbsup: (12 team and 10 team leagues w/ $75 buy ins.)

 

One of the Leagues I have the option of keeping DJ as a 1st round keeper or Hopkins as a 3rd round keeper. Once everyone is paid up and we do the random draft order this will help me decide which one is my 2nd keeper.

DJ should be your 2nd keeper. I think DJ or Zeke can be fantasy MVPs this year. Hopkins is great but I do not think he has the potential as DJ. Floor and ceiling are higher for DJ.

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