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tanatastic

Let’s talk about 4 rookie RBs with 3-5th rnd value and RB1 upside.

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Derrius Guice- People love this kid and hes supposed to be the man for redskins running game.

 

Sony Michel- Yes its the patriots but they spent a 1st on him. That has to mean something.

 

Rashaad Penny- Seattle also spent a 1st on this guy. The Oline sucks but the offense moves regardless.

 

Royce Freeman- Denver 3rd rounder, strong runner. Booker is there now but he was behind CJ who they cut. Its usually the other guy in Denver that busts out, hes that other guy.

 

Any thoughts on these guys? I dont know too much about them or their running strengths. I just see opportunity and upside aplenty in all 4.

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Guice is the one too own

 

 

Saw that Carson was working with the first team in Seattle.

 

Booker and Feeeman looks like a split.

 

And Michel is a rb for the Hoody.

 

Thanks.

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Well, they all should get/earn their chances this season.

I guessGuice is the one people are highest on but I could see Penny being that guy too.

The other two are in less predictable situations but could take off if they get in favor.

Booker in Denver hasn't been the most impressive when he's been on the field so Freeman could emerge quite easily as the RB to own.

Michel was a 1st rounder so he will most certainly see the field but in NE you don't know how consistent his touches will be week to week, if he excels then he could be solid week to week but who knows?

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I was pretty excited about Penny, but then I read that Carson is running first team.

 

I do agree about Booker and freemen, I like Freeman more, but I dont see either one being a full rb1.

 

Guice I think is th only one.

 

Michel is diffently the wild card, Im going too target him if the price is right.

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I was pretty excited about Penny, but then I read that Carson is running first team.

I do agree about Booker and freemen, I like Freeman more, but I dont see either one being a full rb1.

Guice I think is th only one.

Michel is diffently the wild card, Im going too target him if the price is right.

Give Penny time, its not even preseason or August yet and Carrol lies all the time. You think he would tip his hand if he doesnt have to? Penny is a rookie, hes warming up, I wouldnt expect him to be getting all the snaps when camp has only just started. They used a first round pick on him, when the time comes, if they like him, he will have a chance to run with the job. Even then, I fully expect Carroll to continue to build up all the other RBs as per coaching norm. I will use the eye test for him in preseason. If he passes, Im getting him.

 

Broncos RBs I agree, no way to tell and either guy or neither could get a bulk.

 

Michel is indeed a gamble no matter what since hes a patriot. I expect Brady to start regressing and the offense to lean on the run a bit more. Again, they spent a first on him, that has to mean something.

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I think it's possible that all of them could outperform their ADP, but I'm willing to bet that none actually do. Note, I said "outperform". I think they will live up to their billing in so much as, finish between 15-20, as RB2's. This year, I'm avoiding all rookies. I think almost everyone of them will bust. Outside of Barkley, in re-drafts, I'm taking none. In keeper and dynasty's, I'll take Barkley, Mayfield, and Rosen, I'm punting the rest of this class. I think none of the rest see beyond their 3rd year of their rookie contract and are out of the NFL (QB's may linger), by the end of their contracts. Biggest bust draft of my lifetime.

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Skins fan here. I dont trust Gruden with the running game. He acts like he wants to run. Hates running the ball. Loves calling pass plays.

 

And the Skins defense is suspect. Dont reach for Guice at the very least.

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Skins fan here. I dont trust Gruden with the running game. He acts like he wants to run. Hates running the ball. Loves calling pass plays.

 

And the Skins defense is suspect. Dont reach for Guice at the very least.

Does having Smith at QB change that? The Skins plodder role seemed to be fairly productive last year.

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I think Jones in Tampa definitely needs to be on this list. I think he and Guice have the best chances to do something this year in terms of fantasy football. I don't necessarily love any of the rookie backs to be consistent performers, but these two should be able to beat out their main competition for carries and play on teams where the coaches would ideally like to have one main back for at least 1st and 2nd downs.

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Guice runs angry and actually seems to look for contact. That's scary from a longevity perspective. He also looks to be a 2 down back as the Redskins have a very good receiving back. I lean toward Guice in TD leagues but less so in PPR.

 

The Bucs have a lot of weapons - excellent depth at WR and TE and now Jones in the mix. One would think people would be high on Winston... which shows how much of jackass he can be. I might reach for Jones in PPR.

 

Penny is polarizing. People love him or hate him it seems. Carson running with the 1st team doesn't bother me, especially this early. Certainly a situation to monitor. I can see three backs in the mix (add Prosise) and the Seahawks do seem to be slipping personnel wise.

 

Michel is a guy I'd like to see have a shot but we know how difficult NE can be to predict. I'd like to think Belichick would use a talent if he had it (see Corey Dillon). Another good situation to monitor in August. Just don't fumble, Sony.

 

Booker hasn't been able to size anything yet... although, I do think undersized Deangelo Henderson can steal some touches. My opinion of Freeman too will depend on what we see this preseason. Seems like a great opportunity for him if he can distinguish himself somewhat.

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I was pretty excited about Penny, but then I read that Carson is running first team.

 

I do agree about Booker and freemen, I like Freeman more, but I dont see either one being a full rb1.

 

Guice I think is th only one.

 

Michel is diffently the wild card, Im going too target him if the price is right.

this isnt unusal. Carrol makes people earn their spot on the roster.

 

if hes still running with the second team without a sniff of the fist team offense by the halfway point of the exhibition season I'd then get concerned. for now, it matters very little.

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Skins fan here. I dont trust Gruden with the running game. He acts like he wants to run. Hates running the ball. Loves calling pass plays.

 

And the Skins defense is suspect. Dont reach for Guice at the very least.

well, it looks to me like Guice is the heir apparent. not because of his great skill, but more because the competition for the job hasnt really shown up.

 

that may change, but there is nothing about last seasons production that makes any of the incumbent skins backs look like they can get it done.

 

That is not necessarily a reason to pick him. but if he looks like he will win the job at the time you are drafting, it is a reason to make room for him on your roster even if its as a low end RB2 or high end RB3

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Where would Roland Jones fit in this group?

Like Jones.

 

I he’s surely another target for me.

 

It just depends on how the team will use him.

 

I’m in a non ppr league so Barber might be the better one too own based on tds.

 

He’s a wait and see.

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Yeah you all could be right about Penny.

 

He’s been or was moving up my list an then I read that news about Carson running with the first team.

 

But I can how that might just might be offseason work out stuff.

 

Thanks for the insite.

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Penny still has to learn the blocking schemes. and when to do blitz pickup. I doubt he works with the 1's until hes reasonably solid in these areas. That will take some time.

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Penny has talent. But in a redraft? Meh no thanks. The Seahawks have been AWFUL at running the ball for the last 2 years. Leading RB rusher in 2016 had 469 yards. Leader last year had 240 yards. All RBs tried out had a bad to awful YPC. Seattle is going to be bad this year. Behind in games. I see Penny losing 3rd downs often even if he becomes the #1 RB.

 

 

I just see no reason why people are high on him early on.

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Guice runs angry and actually seems to look for contact. That's scary from a longevity perspective. He also looks to be a 2 down back as the Redskins have a very good receiving back. I lean toward Guice in TD leagues but less so in PPR.

Guice didnt have the injury issues that Fournette had in college though. Definitely something to keep in mind.

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In order that I would rank them (i.e. most likely to have RB1 Upside)

 

1. Freeman - Denver's O-line was actually a top 10 rated line for run blocking last year. They are projected to be in the 10-15 range this year, so the line is good enough. I've read some Denver insiders reports on Booker, that he's not a good fit for their blocking scheme. He doesn't have great vision, but does have great acceleration so if the hole is in the place it's supposed to be, Booker can make a play, if not he runs up the back of his linemen. Freeman, the insider feels, is a better fit for the blocking scheme, and elicits more positive reactions from the coaches. Essentially they are reading into the situation the Freeman will be the Game 1 starter. Booker will have a role as he's a good pass catcher and good in space. But if you're looking for an RB1 I think Freeman is the pick of this group and its not even close. I think that Denver's offense will be substantially better with a real QB and Freeman can take advantage of that as their lead back.

 

2. Penny - I wouldn't draft Penny ahead of Guice, but in terms of opportunity to be the #1 back, he's got more of a path to a heavy workload than Guice does. His pros are that he had the highest yards after contact of any back in the draft class and he'll need the behind a Seattle O-line that was ranked 25 in run blocking and is projected to be in the bottom half (15-20) range again this year. In addition, the Seahawks substantially over-drafted him, meaning they will give him every advantage to take the lead role. You don't invest that type of capital for a guy to back up Chris Carson. The knock on him is that his pass blocking skills were non-existent coming out of college. That is less of a concern when Russell Wilson is your QB, but still not something that typically gets you a heavy RB workload in the NFL. Also there is Chris Carson, who was very productive in a limited role behind that terrible o-line last season so if Penny is a flop, at some point they'll move on to Carson if he's a better RB. In addition you've still got Procise and McKissic who could prevent Penny from being an every down back as they could serve as passing down RB's. His outcomes are hard to predict, and I'm avoiding him, but if he's the player the Seahawks think they drafted, he'll be a 3 down back for them.

 

3. Michel - Every instinct tells me to AVOID this guy at all costs. But I also cannot get past the fact that the patriots spent a lot of draft capital on Michel. I think there are two drawbacks to him. First, the Pats will change the game-plan from week to week, so if there's a game where they feel they can pound Jeremy Hill for 25 carries and that's the most effective way to win, that's what they'll do. Second, Michel had a bit of fumblitis last year at UGA and that will get him benched pretty quickly. That said, when I look at Dion Lewis game log from week 6 on, he recorded double digit touches every week and only had less than 14 on 2 occasions. I suspect they want Michel to fill that role and will protect him less than they did Lewis because of the injury concerns. They realized that Lewis was a dynamic 3 down back and rode him heavily down the stretch for playoff seeding. In terms of competition, there is nobody on the roster with Michell's skillset. Burkhead is solid but not spectacular. Hill, Gillislee, and White all have limited RB skillsets. Actually as I'm writing this, I'm talking myself into putting Michel over Penny on this list. My only fear is the game to game unpredictability and the hoodie's rep of removing fumblers from games.

 

4. Guice - THe main problem with Guice is he's in a throwing offense and he's 2 down back. He's actually not a bad receiver from what I understand, but Chris Thompson is the undisputed pass catching back in that offense so despite the fact that Guice is arguably the most talented RB of this group, he's only going to have 2 downs to work with in most cases and this limits him to an RB 2 no matter how many yards and carries you predict for the skins offense as a whole.

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There's talk that Chris Thompson may not be fully healthy until November, making Guice somewhat more interesting.

I heard that yesterday and while it could add to his early season workload, I think a Healthy Chris Thompson is clearly the 3rd down back.

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Guice is a darn good rb.

 

I think he will be the best of the bunch.

 

He’s a good low rb2 high rb3 or in a non ppr flex guy.

 

Thanks.

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Nyheim Hines will outscore Sony Michel this year. Book it

Is this based on the recent news about Michel kneee scope?

 

And also you speaking of ppr or non?

 

Thanks.

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I tend to watch highlight reels this time of year on rookie running backs. The one I liked most that stood out was Ronald Jones of Tampa. He is as advertised and emulates Jamal Charles very well! Guise has been compared to Lynch...I just don't see it. The rest are committee bound

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I tend to watch highlight reels this time of year on rookie running backs. The one I liked most that stood out was Ronald Jones of Tampa. He is as advertised and emulates Jamal Charles very well! Guise has been compared to Lynch...I just don't see it. The rest are committee bound

You weren't impressed by Freemans highlight reel??

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I called that prior to the news bc Im a sage. I believed it prior to surgery but for sure now.

Is this based on the recent news about Michel kneee scope?

 

And also you speaking of ppr or non?

 

Thanks.

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You called it before the knee scope? Really? Show us where?

 

In your first reply on this topic you stated that he has RB1 potential.

 

The sudden change in opinion after the fact is a little laughable.

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Guice is a tough call. He won't be playing on 3rd down which is a concern.

 

Also, despite running hard against top defense (Alabama, auburn, Florida), he averaged only 3.5 yards vs them.

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I'm hearing Carson is looking really good in the Seattle camp. I was targeting Penny before the draft but I hate that he ended up in Seattle.

 

I was all in on Michel but haven't heard much about his knee problems. Wait and see I guess for me.

 

I have Booker as a cheap keeper, but I don't know where that RBBC with Freeman will go. If I can get Freeman cheap I may take him. If one of the two get injured, the other could be a 3 down back.

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Skins fan here. I dont trust Gruden with the running game. He acts like he wants to run. Hates running the ball. Loves calling pass plays.

 

And the Skins defense is suspect. Dont reach for Guice at the very least.

:thumbsup:

 

I like Royce. Booker has not lived up to what the coaches thought he would be. Royce is out performing Booker in camp. I think Royce starts to get the majority of the playing time by week 4.

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Kerryon Johnson is being slept on a bit. Needs a couple things to go right but so do most of these named.

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Last year was an anomaly in terms of rookie rb success...hunt, fournette and Kamara all establishing themselves as RB1's in their 1st year. Rare.

 

Not buying into that happening again. Other than Barkley I see no other rookie putting up numbers like the three mentioned above. Not buying into any of the rookie in the 1st 5 rounds. Been doing this way too long to fall for it.

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Last year was an anomaly in terms of rookie rb success...hunt, fournette and Kamara all establishing themselves as RB1's in their 1st year. Rare.

 

Not buying into that happening again. Other than Barkley I see no other rookie putting up numbers like the three mentioned above. Not buying into any of the rookie in the 1st 5 rounds. Been doing this way too long to fall for it.

Every year rookie RBs break out and become next years early round picks. History is on the side of the rookie RBs, not against them. Dont be so quick to write them off, the rookie hesitation is what gets you huge discounts on fresh legs and good production annually.

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I agree with you tanatastic. One or two will be in next years first two rounds. However, drafting one of these guys other than Barkley in the first 5 rounds is risky, like throwing a dart blind-filded.

 

I'm the 5-8 round I'll take a shot. Ronald Jones imo is in the best position to succeed . And I'll be drafting him on most teams

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I agree with you tanatastic. One or two will be in next years first two rounds. However, drafting one of these guys other than Barkley in the first 5 rounds is risky, like throwing a dart blind-filded.

I'm the 5-8 round I'll take a shot. Ronald Jones imo is in the best position to succeed . And I'll be drafting him on most teams

I agree, 5 and beyond is good value, that lets you take some risk but also get dividends if it pans out. Paying for a breakout that hasnt come yet is usually a trap.
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