Doug Orth's Big Boards 2.0 - Top 200

[Gepetto 976]

JuJu and Marquise Goodwin too low

 

Marlon Mack and Chris Carson too low

 

Sammy Watkins and Jimmy Graham too high

 

Tarik Cohen and Tevin Coleman too high.

 

Otherwise I really like the rankings.

[Mullog 12]

I've been using Doug's Big Board for years. Thank you sir! Your efforts are greatly appreciated and have helped me win multiple titles in my competitive leagues.

 

All hail The Guru!

[bobby heenan 60]

Going to do one of my free leagues and draft based solely on this information. Should be fun!

 

Just did a mock draft with this board - PPR Flex 9th Spot

 

1) Fournette

2) Adams

3) Howard (board said to pick Mixon; went Howard)

4) Fitzgerald

5) Robinson

6) Crowell (Wentz, Cousins, Brees, Cam still available; waited until next round)

7) Cousins (the other 3 were picked early in round 7)

8) Dion Lewis

9) Crowder

10) Burton

11) Parker

12) Eagles DST

13) Chris Carson

14) Crosby

 

Solid picks. Everyone took the mock seriously. Fournette and Howard is a solid 1-2 punch. I feel like my WR's are a little weak, but Adams should have a big year.

 

I think I would flex Dion Lewis the most...even over Crowell and Robinson. Lewis should be a PPR gem and was great value in the 8th round. Crowder is a nice pick in the 9th round. Big board had him at #59 overall.

 

Half of this may not be reasonable when it comes to actual draft day in a few weeks when people move up and down. Just thought it would be fun. Carson and Parker probably won't fall that late. Same with Crowder.

i love the fournette/adams start....id be thrilled to start that way

 

that being said i probably would have gone mixon....but thats just a call....the rest of my team would prob look different than yours...but i def love the 1-2 start

[tanatastic 2,061]

People still fall for the Crowell trap?

 

I’m loving Crowder to bounce back and catch a lot of passes.

[thePRO 78]

i love the fournette/adams start....id be thrilled to start that way

 

that being said i probably would have gone mixon....but thats just a call....the rest of my team would prob look different than yours...but i def love the 1-2 start

 

Yea, I'd be real happy with that 1-2 punch. I think Mixon and Howard will finish the year pretty close to each other. I gotta watch Mixon a little closer this preseason.

 

People still fall for the Crowell trap?

 

I’m loving Crowder to bounce back and catch a lot of passes.

 

Just a mock. Crowell was the best value pick at that spot. Don't think I'd draft him in a $$$ league though. Jets could be a mess this year. Who else is running for them? They still have Powell right? I'd probably avoid that whole situation now that I'm thinking about it more.

[the spanker 28]

Is anyone out there worried about D. Cook's TDs being vultured by Murray?

 

That Cook is coming back from injury and the team won't have any reason to overwork him?

 

Doug has him ranked pretty high over some stud WRs (Thomas, Adams Julio, for example).

[The Football Guru 210]

Is anyone out there worried about D. Cook's TDs being vultured by Murray?

 

That Cook is coming back from injury and the team won't have any reason to overwork him?

 

Doug has him ranked pretty high over some stud WRs (Thomas, Adams Julio, for example).

 

I think it is more of a concern than most seem to think. With that said, everything I hear coming out of Minnesota is the Vikings will let Cook hit the ground running.

[DrG 94]

Quick the helmet rule which you mentioned should also affect rbs and efforts at ball control. Vogue to use some rbs all over the field. And as we have seen a spike in early round rb selection I expect those teams will seek to maximize their investments. I hope there will be some wr rebound as this means it will be easier to find we value later in the draft. A few years ago we were talking about the death of the bell cow rb. Not quite.

[bjsteel 34]

It's completely silly and almost irresponsible, as a supposed "expert", to rank Fournette #2 in PPR (or in any league). I understand wanting to be "different" and perhaps "bold", but come on. And then to say you probably wouldn't draft him #2 if given the option, seems like a complete waste of time, regardless how you spin it. I've followed you over the years and have used your big board in the past, but once I saw Fournette #2, I almost stopped, until I saw Bell at 11????? If Bell were there at 8, and you were on the board, would you not take Bell? I would think your BOARD would represent what you would pick if given the choice, no way Bell last until 11, even if you are drafting...makes ZERO sense.

 

I would love for you to join a big $ PPR league, have the #2 pick, and draft Fournette (put your money where your mouth is). Don't rank him #2 and not pick him. Otherwise, put him where you would actually take him if given the choice!

 

And Kamara at 17 with Ingram out the first 4-weeks? This guy is a PPR machine, crazy where you have him ranked.

[The Football Guru 210]

It's completely silly and almost irresponsible, as a supposed "expert", to rank Fournette #2 in PPR (or in any league). I understand wanting to be "different" and perhaps "bold", but come on. And then to say you probably wouldn't draft him #2 if given the option, seems like a complete waste of time, regardless how you spin it. I've followed you over the years and have used your big board in the past, but once I saw Fournette #2, I almost stopped, until I saw Bell at 11????? If Bell were there at 8, and you were on the board, would you not take Bell? I would think your BOARD would represent what you would pick if given the choice, no way Bell last until 11, even if you are drafting...makes ZERO sense.

 

I would love for you to join a big $ PPR league, have the #2 pick, and draft Fournette (put your money where your mouth is). Don't rank him #2 and not pick him. Otherwise, put him where you would actually take him if given the choice!

 

And Kamara at 17 with Ingram out the first 4-weeks? This guy is a PPR machine, crazy where you have him ranked.

 

I think you mostly misinterpreted what I said. It's not about me being bold or different, it's about readers saying they want it and criticizing those analysts when they do it. I knew I was going to ruffle a few feathers doing it. That either makes me crazy (possible) or someone who very much believes in what he is saying.

 

If you want to ignore the warning signs with Bell and Kamara, that's your call. The overriding point was I would take Bell once if I was given a multitude of high picks in drafts, which almost never happens. I want almost no shares of Bell this year and I'll stick by that even if he proves me wrong. I only want one share so I can diversify my portfolio.

 

Kamara was historically efficient from a yardage and touchdown standpoint. Payton has already said he doesn't want to put much more on his plate. I tend to believe him b/c Payton has been an RBBC guy since he arrived.

 

I will take Fournette if/when the time comes, although I doubt I'll get a top three pick. I can't remember getting such a pick in the last 3-4 years and I've been in an average of about 12 leagues (so around 50 drafts).

 

I'm dropping roughly $5-6 K into money leagues this year (most of which is house money) and my Big Boards are what I use. I play 1.5 K leagues on Fuzzy's and a handful of RTS leagues. Come join me.

[Laurence Maroney's Nuts 2]

It's completely silly and almost irresponsible, as a supposed "expert", to rank Fournette #2 in PPR (or in any league). I understand wanting to be "different" and perhaps "bold", but come on. And then to say you probably wouldn't draft him #2 if given the option, seems like a complete waste of time, regardless how you spin it. I've followed you over the years and have used your big board in the past, but once I saw Fournette #2, I almost stopped, until I saw Bell at 11????? If Bell were there at 8, and you were on the board, would you not take Bell? I would think your BOARD would represent what you would pick if given the choice, no way Bell last until 11, even if you are drafting...makes ZERO sense.

 

I would love for you to join a big $ PPR league, have the #2 pick, and draft Fournette (put your money where your mouth is). Don't rank him #2 and not pick him. Otherwise, put him where you would actually take him if given the choice!

 

And Kamara at 17 with Ingram out the first 4-weeks? This guy is a PPR machine, crazy where you have him ranked.

 

You're right man. He should just copy and past cookie cutter Yahoo or ESPN rankings huh...

[Brutal Brutus 182]

It's completely silly and almost irresponsible, as a supposed "expert", to rank Fournette #2 in PPR (or in any league). I understand wanting to be "different" and perhaps "bold", but come on. And then to say you probably wouldn't draft him #2 if given the option, seems like a complete waste of time, regardless how you spin it. I've followed you over the years and have used your big board in the past, but once I saw Fournette #2, I almost stopped, until I saw Bell at 11????? If Bell were there at 8, and you were on the board, would you not take Bell? I would think your BOARD would represent what you would pick if given the choice, no way Bell last until 11, even if you are drafting...makes ZERO sense.

 

I would love for you to join a big $ PPR league, have the #2 pick, and draft Fournette (put your money where your mouth is). Don't rank him #2 and not pick him. Otherwise, put him where you would actually take him if given the choice!

 

And Kamara at 17 with Ingram out the first 4-weeks? This guy is a PPR machine, crazy where you have him ranked.

I understand not agreeing with an expert but you are being a complete douche. The best part of fftoday is that they differ from most sites and are willing to discuss their opinions on here.

I have Bell in a keeper league and I have my worries about him this year. Between the high mileage and the contract it's perfectly logical to think he could be in for a down year. Everyone is looking for this year's Gurley. Doug clearly thinks that Fournette could be that guy and gave his reasonings as to why. You are free to disagree, but be contrustive or move on.

[seafoam1 1,878]

I understand not agreeing with an expert but you are being a complete douche. The best part of fftoday is that they differ from most sites and are willing to discuss their opinions on here.

I have Bell in a keeper league and I have my worries about him this year. Between the high mileage and the contract it's perfectly logical to think he could be in for a down year. Everyone is looking for this year's Gurley. Doug clearly thinks that Fournette could be that guy and gave his reasonings as to why. You are free to disagree, but be contrustive or move on.

The one reason I am totally in on Bell is because it looks like this is his last year in Pittsburgh. What motivation do the Steelers have to preserve him for the following year? The dude is great and he has not needed preseason which helps put less work on his body. Plus he is playing for a contract somewhere else.

[The Football Guru 210]

The one reason I am totally in on Bell is because it looks like this is his last year in Pittsburgh. What motivation do the Steelers have to preserve him for the following year? The dude is great and he has not needed preseason which helps put less work on his body. Plus he is playing for a contract somewhere else.

 

I get it. If Bell stays healthy, I'm the fool. I think the Steelers will run his wheels again off too. I just don't think he'll hold up this time around. But again, let me point out the evidence against him:

 

Since 2000, there have been 16 instances (Bell will make it 17) in which a back saw 400-plus touches one year and played the next. Fifteen of the 16 failed to match or exceed what they did the previous year and the average drop-off was 110 touches, 796 total yards and 7.4 touchdowns. (For what it's worth, most of the backs dropped off substantially - it wasn't just a few outliers.) For those that care about such things, those backs averaged 0.7 yards per carry less than the previous year. He has a first-time play-caller calling the shots now.

 

There are more reasons, as I stated in the article.

[The Football Guru 210]

I understand not agreeing with an expert but you are being a complete douche. The best part of fftoday is that they differ from most sites and are willing to discuss their opinions on here.

I have Bell in a keeper league and I have my worries about him this year. Between the high mileage and the contract it's perfectly logical to think he could be in for a down year. Everyone is looking for this year's Gurley. Doug clearly thinks that Fournette could be that guy and gave his reasonings as to why. You are free to disagree, but be contrustive or move on.

 

Appreciate the support

[seafoam1 1,878]

I get it. If Bell stays healthy, I'm the fool. I think the Steelers will run his wheels again off too. I just don't think he'll hold up this time around. But again, let me point out the evidence against him:

 

Since 2000, there have been 16 instances (Bell will make it 17) in which a back saw 400-plus touches one year and played the next. Fifteen of the 16 failed to match or exceed what they did the previous year and the average drop-off was 110 touches, 796 total yards and 7.4 touchdowns. (For what it's worth, most of the backs dropped off substantially - it wasn't just a few outliers.) For those that care about such things, those backs averaged 0.7 yards per carry less than the previous year. He has a first-time play-caller calling the shots now.

 

There are more reasons, as I stated in the article.

I completely get your point on his workload, but in a PPR, I'm looking forward to him being around the 75-80 catch range. Even if he drops in his yards per carry, I don't think he drops that much in receptions. Does he? I haven't looked at the 16 backs you mentioned, but how many of them had 85 receptions the year before their drop off? Maybe more than I think?

[The Football Guru 210]

I completely get your point on his workload, but in a PPR, I'm looking forward to him being around the 75-80 catch range. Even if he drops in his yards per carry, I don't think he drops that much in receptions. Does he? I haven't looked at the 16 backs you mentioned, but how many of them had 85 receptions the year before their drop off? Maybe more than I think?

Let me get back to you on that. I have the research but am a bit busy at the moment.

[robb 71]

Let me get back to you on that. I have the research but am a bit busy at the moment.

Probably working on the non-PPR Big Board, right?

[The Football Guru 210]

Probably working on the non-PPR Big Board, right?

That's done, now I'm working on the TFC board

[robb 71]

That's done, now I'm working on the TFC board

 

If you are already working on the TFC Board.......did I miss the non-PPR BB?? I use this one a bit now.

[The Football Guru 210]

 

If you are already working on the TFC Board.......did I miss the non-PPR BB?? I use this one a bit now.

 

Nah, you didn't miss it. I think Mike posted it today, but not to the front page.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/18_pma_big_board_nonppr_1.html

[robb 71]

Nah, you didn't miss it. I think Mike posted it today, but not to the front page.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/articles/orth/18_pma_big_board_nonppr_1.html

Thanks Doug. I didn’t see this on the “Rankings/Projections” tab, so I appreciate the new link.

 

Great job again as you really are the Woolu Guru!

[The Football Guru 210]

Thanks Doug. I didn’t see this on the “Rankings/Projections” tab, so I appreciate the new link.

 

Great job again as you really are the Woolu Guru!

 

I feel loved

 

[Mike FF Today 607]

 

If you are already working on the TFC Board.......did I miss the non-PPR BB?? I use this one a bit now.

 

Just posted the Non-PPR and Half-Point PPR a little while ago.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

The one reason I am totally in on Bell is because it looks like this is his last year in Pittsburgh. What motivation do the Steelers have to preserve him for the following year? The dude is great and he has not needed preseason which helps put less work on his body. Plus he is playing for a contract somewhere else.

Yeah but what motivation does Bell have for being run into the ground? I think he's already proved what he can do in this league and the only thing that will change his value in free agency is an injury. He has every reason to avoid a 400 touch season and he may try his best to do so.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Yeah but what motivation does Bell have for being run into the ground? I think he's already proved what he can do in this league and the only thing that will change his value in free agency is an injury. He has every reason to avoid a 400 touch season and he may try his best to do so.

He is still getting paid millions to do a job. I think an attitude like that would affect his value to a team in a negative way. Im not going to give some a contract who purposely sits out just to avoid more wear and tear

[Quickolas1 80]

Yeah but what motivation does Bell have for being run into the ground? I think he's already proved what he can do in this league and the only thing that will change his value in free agency is an injury. He has every reason to avoid a 400 touch season and he may try his best to do so.

 

Is he going to refuse to go into the game?

Or purposely drop handoffs and alligator arm passes that come his way?

[Brutal Brutus 182]

 

Is he going to refuse to go into the game?

Or purposely drop handoffs and alligator arm passes that come his way?

He won't refuse to play but he could easily take a few extra breathers, or potentially take an extra week or so to heal a nagging hamstring or ankle. Players that get the ball 400+ times fight through nagging injuries, he doesn't have a lot of incentive to do that. Teams already know what he can do so he has very little prove this season. If things go down hill early, I don't see him pushing his body to the limit in weeks 14-16. Not saying he will do these things but I think there's a chance he could.

[American Chewy 98]

Thanks for this. Warming to taking fornette with 7th pick in .5 ppr

[The Football Guru 210]

Thanks for this. Warming to taking fornette with 7th pick in .5 ppr

 

I'm backing off a bit from No. 2 in PPR after considering the likelihood David Johnson pushes for 80 catches (initially a bit worried a poor line and Chase Edmonds might steal a few more touches than expected) and Zeke pushes for 400 touches, but I can't see ranking LF any lower than fourth. I really like him (obviously) in 0.5 and standard scoring.

[The Football Guru 210]

I completely get your point on his workload, but in a PPR, I'm looking forward to him being around the 75-80 catch range. Even if he drops in his yards per carry, I don't think he drops that much in receptions. Does he? I haven't looked at the 16 backs you mentioned, but how many of them had 85 receptions the year before their drop off? Maybe more than I think?

 

Tomlinson was three of the 16 instances. He "improved" once and fell off twice, although his drop-offs weren't nearly as dramatic as some of the others.

 

The closest comp to Bell's 2017 season was Steven Jackson in 2006 (346 carries, 90 catches). Deuce McAllister (2003) wasn't too far off (351, 69). Edgerrin James (2000) too (387, 63). Jackson missed four games the next year, Deuce missed two and Edge missed 10 after tearing his ACL.

[Brutal Brutus 182]

I'm starting to get this feeling that Gordon is in for a big year. Zero competition for touches, and coaches are already talking about getting him more involved in the passing game. If he can just have a slight uptick in effectiveness he could enter into the elite territory.

[Mike FF Today 607]

Added a Big Board for the High Stakes league - The Fantasy Championsip

[Mike FF Today 607]

Another High Stakes league - The FFPC

[Mike FF Today 607]

OK, here comes 2.0. Top 200 for PPR is posted.

[Frozenbeernuts 1,652]

Tyreek Hill at 18. Biggest miss of the year I bet

[We Tigers 71]

I keep talking myself in and out of Chris Hogan--will he still see significant targets when Edelman is back? Is his huge ADOT from last year the real deal, or something he achieved only because Cooks was already pulling the coverage away?--and the latest Big Board just helps me do that a little more. THANKS FOR NOTHING DOUG

[The Football Guru 210]

I keep talking myself in and out of Chris Hogan--will he still see significant targets when Edelman is back? Is his huge ADOT from last year the real deal, or something he achieved only because Cooks was already pulling the coverage away?--and the latest Big Board just helps me do that a little more. THANKS FOR NOTHING DOUG

 

My goal is to help everyone do nothing better so that someone else can do nothing the best

[Mike FF Today 607]

OK, Top 200 for Non-PPR is ready.

[the spanker 28]

Doug! In the good name of Capt Kirk of the USS Enterprise to Scotty--'I need that POWER'!

 

Beam down those kickers and defensive rankings.....I'm in trouble tomorrow.

 

Energize!