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Norv Turner RB History and Christian Mcaffrey

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I honestly went into this thinking it would justify Mcaffrey as likely producing higher than his 15th finish last year and FFT projected 15th for this year, but going thru the data, now not so sure.

 

Ultimately I go round and round coming to conclusion that FFToday’s projections are about right, but figure I’d share anyway, but just so you know before reading on, no convincing data either way.

 

Norv Turner as HC or OC can see breakdown by season here, highlights/lowlights of those seasons follow:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/TurnNo0.htm

 

1991-1993 Cowboys

Emmitt Smith, now that OL didn’t hurt but still…

 

1994-2004 Redskins

Terry Allen several productive years including monster 1550totyds/20td season

Nevah Bench Stephen Davis, productive seasons

 

2005-2006 Raiders

’05, Amos Zeroue lead back 100 carries, Tyrone Wheatly 80 carries, Zeroue 48recs

’06, Lamont Jordan 272atts/1025yds, 70recs/563yds, 11tds

 

2007-2012 Chargers

’07-’11, had this guy you may have heard of…Ladainian Tomlinson who had some somewhat productive years

’12, Forgettable year by Ryan Matthews

 

2013 Browns

Considering this a throw away….Lead back was WillisMcaghee who only had 138 carries, 3 other RBs had 40something carries. Off note that lead receiving RB, Chris.Ogbonnaya had 48 recs (Mcaghee past his prime and Obbonnyaya who? And the Browns. Kind of why I’m considering a throw away season)

 

2014-2016 Vikings

’14, Matt Asiata, Jerick Mckinnon combined for 277atts/1108yds/4.5ypc, 71recs/447yds

’15, Then Adrian Peterson 1700totyds/11tds (including 30recs)

’16, Asiata/Mckinnon again for 1350totyds/10tds

 

 

 

So when Turner has had a Bellcow guy, that RB has very good production. But when he hasn’t it either has not gone well or the production is there…but split between two RBs.

 

Let’s look closer at most recent history of this with Asiata/Mckinnon, as think Anderson/Mcaffrey are in this mode (actually with Mcaffrey being more talented) than the failed RBBC under Turner.

 

2014

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2014.htm

 

2016

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/min/2016.htm

 

 

31

 

 

Now with this info let’s assume, and per pre-season and all talk out of Panthers camp, sounds like looking to have Mcaffrey be the lead back, albiet just slightly the lead back.

 

Let’s say 160carries at 3.7 ypc from last year that’s 592 rushing. His YPC was better 2nd half of last year, so think he could get to 4 (640yds if so), but let’s stick with the 592.

 

Now receptions were more evenly distributed between Asiata /Mckinnon, but would expect Mcaffrey to get lion share.Not the 80 last year, but think 65 is realistic at his last year’s 8.1 ypc that’s 526. See article below where Panthers are looking to get Mcaffrey recs, but more in space so he take advantage of his speed/elusiveness. So I could see a 10.0 ypc, which would be 650yds. (Note the article also cites committed to running game so would expect Anderson to be very much in the mix)

 

https://247sports.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/ContentGallery/The-plan-Norv-Turner-will-follow-to-right-the-Panthers-offense-118965700/

 

So, low end 592rushyds/527recyds/6td low end, 640rushds/650recyds/9tds high end.

Which puts him in line with FFToday’s projections.

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His ceiling is around RB 10 or so, his upside is capped because of Cam and CJ at the goal line. His floor is high considering his catches and talent but people need to relax just a bit.

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...but people need to relax just a bit.

 

Yeah this includes me as reading how Panthers want to use him more, had semi-convinced myself he was going to def break into top10, but after looking at info I shared, think he'll be right where expected.

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I think his ceiling could be higher. It isn't ridiculous to see 275 touches. This all hinges on how Norv sees him. If he thinks he is special then I see no reason that his ceiling isn't higher. If he gets 200 carries at 4.0 ypc and 75 catches at 8 ypc, say you give him about 6 tds total. That's realistic while still being optimistic which is what makes a good ceiling in my opinion.

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I think his ceiling could be higher. It isn't ridiculous to see 275 touches. This all hinges on how Norv sees him. If he thinks he is special then I see no reason that his ceiling isn't higher. If he gets 200 carries at 4.0 ypc and 75 catches at 8 ypc, say you give him about 6 tds total. That's realistic while still being optimistic which is what makes a good ceiling in my opinion.

I can buy this.

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His bigger issue is the mediocre OL that was in front of him is now down 2 starters. Fortunately he'll be the pass catching back and won't lose that production, but I'm a bit concerned about how effective their run game will be.

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i was about to start a thread on McCaffery..

i feel his stock is rising after the last pre-season game.. if he gets 250+ carries, is he a top 10 1st round selection?

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i was about to start a thread on McCaffery..

i feel his stock is rising after the last pre-season game.. if he gets 250+ carries, is he a top 10 1st round selection?

Yes if he got that many carries he would be higher on draft boards but it’s a heavy long shot to get that many. It’s just not his style of football.

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250 touches is near top 5 status in my opinion. He wasn't even THAT efficient last year but 250 touches, depending on how they are split, really increases his value. I agree that's a bit optimistic just because of CJ and Cam, but again if Norv loves him then anything mentioned in this thread is easily attainable.

 

Edit: PPR scoring

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Yes if he got that many carries he would be higher on draft boards but it’s a heavy long shot to get that many. It’s just not his style of football.

 

Or Turner's. Again when he's had a bellcow, Turner will ride him, but if not he has history of sharing with 2 backs. So 250 would likely make Mcaffrey top5-8, but per what Turner has done historicially, most recently with Asiata/Mckinon, high end for carries around 165, then say 65 recs, then that's like 230 touches, 20 touches isnt' much but think it is diff between 5-8 and 12-15.

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I’m all in on this post.

 

I think Anderson has great value.

 

He’s a better player going into this season then Stewart was going into last season.

 

And Anderson can also produce in the passing game.

 

I was on the band wagon about Mccaffery being a top ten rb, and then after the draft even more so, and then they sign Anderson.

 

I think Mccaffery will end up around where he finshed last season.

 

Thanks very interesting and very good insite.

 

Appreciate it.

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Few things not mentioned. A healthy Greg Olsen, emergence of Funchess last year, Torrey Smith, and CJ Anderson with a running QB. Other then that you will swear every game when goal-line work goes to Newton and CJ before McCaffery.

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seeing him go early 2nd seems a reach but i totally understand if you are drafting late 1st and go beckham or julio and still want a top RB coming back

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I think the fruit of Eddies loins may have a great chance to replicate Gurley numbers of last season

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I just don’t think so.

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McCaffrey will be a workhorse, 3dn RB. I have him ranked RB9. Not many feature RB anymore. Anywhere in the 2nd round is $. Anderson is a back-up, change of pace RB. McCaffrey will get fed.

This is wishful thinking. There's no freakin way McCaffrey will hold up being a 3-down between-the-tackles runner and last the season. I understand, RB's get hurt, it's the nature of the job. But 5'11/205lb RB built slightly like him don't hold up to that abuse. I'd still rather have guys like Hunt, Cook, Barkley and maybe Mixon and Fournette.

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This is wishful thinking. There's no freakin way McCaffrey will hold up being a 3-down between-the-tackles runner and last the season. I understand, RB's get hurt, it's the nature of the job. But 5'11/205lb RB built slightly like him don't hold up to that abuse. I'd still rather have guys like Hunt, Cook, Barkley and maybe Mixon and Fournette.

In a ppr he's a stud. I gotta believe his carries go up to maybe 150 from 117. And another 110-120 targets for 85 catches. Maybe 9-11 TDs this year? Love it!

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In a ppr he's a stud. I gotta believe his carries go up to maybe 150 from 117. And another 110-120 targets for 85 catches. Maybe 9-11 TDs this year? Love it!

Agree, in PPR he's a great #2RB to have on your roster. My point is that guys who are trying to convince themselves he's about to become a 3-down back are putting way too much faith in his ability to be a consistent 1st/2nd down runner.

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Agree, in PPR he's a great #2RB to have on your roster. My point is that guys who are trying to convince themselves he's about to become a 3-down back are putting way too much faith in his ability to be a consistent 1st/2nd down runner.

I have him in my main league, and I don't want him getting 200+ rushes. Maybe being on the field more, but no, not 300+ touches. I hated last year that he went to Carolina, but I give the coaches credit on his usage in his first year. This year he may turn out to be an RB1, but even if he finishes top 15 I'm cool with that. I did hear he was going to get more work this year. We will see.

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This is wishful thinking. There's no freakin way McCaffrey will hold up being a 3-down between-the-tackles runner and last the season. I understand, RB's get hurt, it's the nature of the job. But 5'11/205lb RB built slightly like him don't hold up to that abuse. I'd still rather have guys like Hunt, Cook, Barkley and maybe Mixon and Fournette.

He has been used as a 3dn feature RB all preseason and executed a GL carry. Coaches have said they are giving him more touches this yr. He'll be a RB1 (top12) in std, higher in PPR.

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I think Anderson will make Mccaferry a rb2 in non ppr.

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I think Mccaffery will be the Rb1 on the Panthers.

 

But Anderson will indeed reduce Mccaffery value in a non ppr to a rb2.

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I think Mccaffery will be the Rb1 on the Panthers.

 

But Anderson will indeed reduce Mccaffery value in a non ppr to a rb2.

Anderson only increases McCaffery's value. Another ok RB to get some carries to keep the offense in motion only helps up McCaffrey's reception numbers, and McCaffery will absolutely get more carries but without getting so many that it hurts his receiving stats.

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Rec numbers only count in a ppr league.

 

Non in a non ppr league.

 

Sorry about that confusion.

 

In a ppr league I think he will be a rb1.

 

But in a non ppr league a rb2.

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He has been used as a 3dn feature RB all preseason and executed a GL carry. Coaches have said they are giving him more touches this yr. He'll be a RB1 (top12) in std, higher in PPR.

In preseason :rolleyes:

 

lots of things happen in preseason. talk to me 4 weeks in when he can't move after 20 touches. i'm not calling him a bust, i'm saying there's no freakin way he maintains the role of 3 down back for the entire season. he won't hold up.

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In preseason :rolleyes:

 

lots of things happen in preseason. talk to me 4 weeks in when he can't move after 20 touches. i'm not calling him a bust, i'm saying there's no freakin way he maintains the role of 3 down back for the entire season. he won't hold up.

 

I haven’t seen so many people scrutinize preseason useage more than this season. It means less than nothing. It’s for getting guys reps, shaking the rust, evaluating rookies and guys on the bubble. Coaches don’t tip their hand or show their game plans at all.

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In preseason :rolleyes:

 

lots of things happen in preseason. talk to me 4 weeks in when he can't move after 20 touches. i'm not calling him a bust, i'm saying there's no freakin way he maintains the role of 3 down back for the entire season. he won't hold up.

 

He was a workhorse at Stanford. Expecting 15-17 touches, that'll put him in RB1 discussion. Preseason tells us what to expect.

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CJ Anderson will get the first hand off of the season for the panthers and start the game. Just a little prediction.

Yep. And he will end game 1 with 12 rushes for 37 yards and no receptions.

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Think CMC will finish top 10 and have a 2017 Kamara type season.

I think he will be just a notch below Kamara last season. My guess is top 12 ppr. That's what I'm hoping for from a 2nd rd pick. Anything better is gravy.

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Think CMC will finish top 10 and have a 2017 Kamara type season.

Would be almost impossible considering the efficiency Kamara had. Might never see a season like that again from anyone.

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Would be almost impossible considering the efficiency Kamara had. Might never see a season like that again from anyone.

 

Not efficiency but he can make it up with Volume and i think he'll have close to 400 touches.

 

16 carries avg

9 rec avg

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Not efficiency but he can make it up with Volume and i think he'll have close to 400 touches.

 

16 carries avg

9 rec avg

250 carries is extremely unlikely. 144 rec is not even worth mentioning. People are entering delusion status with his volume.

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