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riversco

stock talk

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I'd like to start a little stock chat thread if you'll oblige. Today seems as good a day as any.

 

Regarding the 800 point drop in the Dow and the market correction, one of two things will occur:

1. We are heading for an imminent recession

2. This is just a correction and the market will rebound to new highs.

The FIRST sign of a recession is a hiring freeze. Jobs just dry up. Corporations are smart and they know when the recession is actually coming. You don't need all the information corporations have, you just need to see how they act. Corporate America is still on a hiring binge. That means we will get option 2. The correct strategy is to buy into panic selling and just sit on it. I saw this coming ahead of time and sold a lot of stock beforehand. I'm looking to rebuy lower. We probably drop more but I have signals in place if not. Its easy money really. I can't guarantee we just saw the low or not. We could easily drop more. But the point is not picking bottoms, its just buying a deep discount while knowing we'll head back to new highs. If I bought this morning, and we dropped another 10% before bottoming, I'd be fine with that. I think it goes lower so I'm going to wait on rebuying in my case.

 

So for example, TNA is at $71. You could buy around here TODAY as of this posting and (in the short term) it might drop more to $60 or maybe even $50 or $40. But at some point in the next 6-12 months, it will set a new high. I think its really pessimistic to say 12 months but I'll throw that in there. I think there is a very good chance you double your money in 12 months at some point.

 

I might not stop by regularly to respond but I hope that's ok.

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An update of my battle plan this morning:

 

1. October 11th was the down day with the biggest trading volume which is what we will now base the rest of analysis on.

2. We often see one more huge drop after a huge down day with huge volume, so I waited on buying. If we got that, I would have bought.

3. Instead, we got a bounce.

4. In almost all cases, price has to retest the low. So a good bet here is to wait for some sort of retest of the lows of October 11th. There is a chance the retest never happens though.

5. The least-likely event is that (1) the down day with huge volume marks the exact low AND (2) the market just rebounds to new highs with no retest. If THAT occurs, I never rebuy and instead I wind up sitting in cash unfortunately. (1) has occurred and now we waiting to see if (2) occurs.

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I'm still playing $V. I have 100 Call options @ $150 12/21

 

I was loving life earlier this month. Getting killed right now.

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oving Forward (PA up to eleven, please.)

 

1. If you wish to post at the FF Today Forums, you must play by these rules and guidelines. I cant stress this enough. If you cant or dont want to follow these guidelines then your account will be deleted and you are welcome to find a board that suits your posting style. The FF Today Forums are a great resource for fantasy football discussion but its important for you to follow the rules and guidelines. in order to keep this a pleasant environment for everyone. Playing policeman is no fun, trust me, but unfortunately it must and will be done. Those of you with active accounts, I would strongly encourage you to please re-read the forum guidelines before posting. There will be no warnings for breaking the forum rules.

 

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O

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oving Forward (PA up to eleven, please.)

 

1. If you wish to post at the FF Today Forums, you must play by these rules and guidelines. I cant stress this enough. If you cant or dont want to follow these guidelines then your account will be deleted and you are welcome to find a board that suits your posting style. The FF Today Forums are a great resource for fantasy football discussion but its important for you to follow the rules and guidelines. in order to keep this a pleasant environment for everyone. Playing policeman is no fun, trust me, but unfortunately it must and will be done. Those of you with active accounts, I would strongly encourage you to please re-read the forum guidelines before posting. There will be no warnings for breaking the forum rules.

 

2. We are currently accepting new registrations at this time.

 

3. Since weve upgraded to a newer version of the forums software you may experience some issues when trying to login or retrieve information from your account. In most instances, this can be resolved by logging out and logging back in; or clearing your browsers cache. If you are having problems logging in, please send me an email mike@fftoday.com and I will assist you as best I can.

 

Remember, the guidelines and rules of The FF Today Forums are here to ensure that this remains a great resource for fantasy football discussion, so the rules will be enforced. Most of you will have no problem following them. Please use you common sense and if you have a question, ask first before posting and I will do my best to help make the line clearer for you. Communicating on a message board is different from face-to-face communication. Only the words are seen, not your facial expressions or tone of voice. Please pay careful attention to how you use your words.

 

O

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Unless you have to sell your stocks soon for some reason...its all a moot point. Same with this same conversation in 2009.

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Unless you have to sell your stocks soon for some reason...its all a moot point. Same with this same conversation in 2009.

I sold everything other than my V options and worthless MU calls Thursday late afternoon. I'll jump back in later. I need to see a few days of growth

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I have avoided looking at my accounts, finally looked today. Not good. To make matters worse, I opened a new ira a month or two ago.

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I heard an interesting comment at a conference earlier this week. He expects the US markets to rise because of European traders pouring money into US markets to protect their assets until they see who is elected to replace Merkel.

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I heard an interesting comment at a conference earlier this week. He expects the US markets to rise because of European traders pouring money into US markets to protect their assets until they see who is elected to replace Merkel.

 

US markets will go to new highs. Maybe not straight away, we might retest the lows, but we're not headed for a recession or anything.

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I sold everything other than my V options and worthless MU calls Thursday late afternoon. I'll jump back in later. I need to see a few days of growth

$V is taking off. I need it to get above $150 in the next month and a half for my option call

 

Also the discounts where too great to pass up so I bought some blue chips

 

AMZN 1625.90

MORE V 135.30

AAPL 219.93

MSFT 106.23

C 66.01

BAC 27.75

PFE 43.73

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Bought a bunch of TNA at $61 this morning because it looks like the day we caught the bomber is the bottom.

 

Checking in on this. Closed at $70.80 today. Gain of 16% so far. There is no recession on the horizon and this will hit new highs eventually. I expect it to at least double before I cash. The way I actually played this was (1) designed x amount of money for the trade. (2) use 90% of it to buy at $61. (3) 10% of it stays in cash JUST IN CASE this is one of those times that TNA drops something like 75% from its all time high. If we had gotten a huge smash down like that, I'd lower my average cost and use the 10% to buy a bunch down there. Apparently that doomsday scenario won't materialize, but the 10% will stay in cash.

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The huge market drop was due to a partial inversion of the yield curve and worries of a china tariff and some worries of global growth tossed in.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-03/u-s-yield-curve-just-inverted-that-s-huge

 

Partial inversions of the yield curve happen from time to time but are rather weak in predicting recessions. It gets interesting if the entire yield curve inverts like it did in 2000 and 2007.

 

A partial inversion last occurred in October 2013 and it meant nothing. Market just went straight up for months.

https://www.cnbc.com/2013/10/11/inverted-yield-curve-sign-has-wall-street-on-edge.html

 

So its something to watch but not really interesting yet.

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Keep in mind the job market is still incredibly robust by any measure. We've seen a big drop of about 20% but bull markets DO correct 20% sometimes. 1998, 2011, and 2015. in 1987 it fell about 40% and was not the end of the bull market. There is no recession in sight. We'll hit new highs before a recession shows up.

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Keep in mind the job market is still incredibly robust by any measure. We've seen a big drop of about 20% but bull markets DO correct 20% sometimes. 1998, 2011, and 2015. in 1987 it fell about 40% and was not the end of the bull market. There is no recession in sight. We'll hit new highs before a recession shows up.

Yawn. What new high am I looking for and when should I expect this kimosabi?

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Yawn. What new high am I looking for and when should I expect this kimosabi?

 

We're 4 months into this correction. Start at 4 months after the 1998 correction began, it took 4 more months to set a new all time high. In 2011, it took 7 months. In 2015, it took 9 months. After the 1987 crash it took 23 months. Interestingly, no recession ever showed up until after we hit a new all time high. And then I didn't buy at the all time high, I bought at a severe discount. So if we nudge past the all time high, I'm doubling my money.

 

This is more like investing than a quick turn around. I'm getting a good price and I know there's no recession coming. Sit on for months, maybe a little over a year, and make lots of money.

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There is definately a correlation between Trump haters and pessimists on the stock market. I agree there is no recession in the near future and the Trump haters selling lately will be making yet another mistake.

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On 10/29/2018 at 6:48 AM, riversco said:

Bought a bunch of TNA at $61 this morning because it looks like the day we caught the bomber is the bottom.

As of now,this trade is showing a profit.  TNA is over $62 and should be heading for new all time highs.  The goal is not to pick bottoms but make money and this will make plenty of money.

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2 hours ago, riversco said:

As of now,this trade is showing a profit.  TNA is over $62 and should be heading for new all time highs.  The goal is not to pick bottoms but make money and this will make plenty of money.

You bought it at 61 and it's now at 62?  Inmean yeah...that's an increase.  Cant deny that 

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