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Looking Ahead To Redrafts 2019: First Four Rounds: 1/15 Update...

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This is something I like to post on site in late December and then update it every few weeks for a couple of months. The first edition assumes minimal team changes for the following players (which isn't realistic) and does not include potential rookies. This is just a glimpse of what a redraft (non-PPR) might look like for 2019 based upon what is known today. It is meant to generate some discussion, so feel free to disagree and/or offer up alternative choices. QBs are also valued a little higher by me based on some of the scoring systems I play being QB-friendly.

Round One:

1. Todd Gurley
2. Ezekiel Elliottt
3. Saquon Barkley
4. Christian McCaffrey
5. Le'Veon Bell
6. Alvin Kamara
7. Melvin Gordon
8. DeAndre Hopkins
9. David Johnson
10. Patrick Mahomes
11. Davante Adams
12. Julio Jones

Round Two:

13. Leonard Fournette
14. Joe Mixon
15. Travis Kelce
16. Antonio Brown
17. Tyreek Hill
18. Michael Thomas
19. Phillip Lindsay
20. James Conner
21. Adam Thielen
22. Mike Evans
23. Dalvin Cook
24. Odell Beckham, Jr.

Round Three:

25. Nick Chubb
26. Keenan Allen
27. T.Y. Hilton
28. Zach Ertz
29. A.J. Green
30. JuJu Smith-Schuster
31. Marlon Mack
32. Derrick Henry
33. Andrew Luck
34. Chris Carson
35. Stefon Diggs
36. Amari Cooper

Round Four:

37. Mark Ingram
38. Jordan Howard
39. Tyler Boyd
40. Sony Michel
41. George Kittle
42. Robert Woods
43. Aaron Jones
44. Aaron Rodgers

45. Ben Roethlisberger

46. Tarik Cohen
47. Kenny Golladay
48. Jared Goff

Thoughts??

 

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Yeah, DJ too high imo. Folks are gonna be really gun-shy next year.

 

 

I expect Chubb to be a 2nd rounder instead of early 3rd, and Dalvin Cook to move up to mid second due to his late-season heroics and propensity to catch the ball.

 

Also expect hype to propel Guice into the late 3rd-early 4th.

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This is a bit tough for me, since I play in 0.75 ppr and a 2 QB league. Not to mention keepers. That pack of 7 running backs seems about right, although I think the order will change from draft to draft based on people's preference/fandom.

 

Mahomes is probably too early for me, even in a 2 QB league. You can get good, reliable QBs later and you'll passing up a ton of RB/WR reliability going with Mahomes in round 1.

 

I think Conner sneaks up into end of round 1/beginning of round 2 and I'd still take AB over Julio and Davante Adams. I'd also much prefer Nick Chubb to Leonard Fournette.

 

No way do I take any of Rodgers/Rothlesberger/Goff in Round 4 ahead of Brees/Wilson/Luck/Rivers/Watson. I don't think they're that much better than the other five guys to justify the price tag. QB is deep as heck.

 

Seems like another year where I want 2 early RBs b/c I don't want to spend a 4th rounder on A. Jones/Ingram/Howard/Michel and I definitely don't want to spend a 3rd rounder on Henry, although that's probably my ppr bias talking.

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To many qbs.

 

Wait until atleast the seventh round for a a Qb.

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1.1 Mahomes

 

Improved O-Line, addressing the running game and an improved defense and additional year in the offense and this guy is going to win leagues on his own like Kurt Warner did back in the day.

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1.1 Mahomes

 

Improved O-Line, addressing the running game and an improved defense and additional year in the offense and this guy is going to win leagues on his own like Kurt Warner did back in the day.

 

I know that you are the worlds biggest homer.....but I'll be reaching for him in the first next year. I play in 6 leagues and made the playoffs in 5. The one I missed, I didn't own Mahomie.

 

Yes, I had the advantage on getting him late, but his weekly advantage at the position has been amazing...and I don't see that changing, except possible improvement.

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I'll be targeting Mahomes after Gurley, Zeke, and Barkley. I'm done dicking around with the likes of Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, etc due to 'waiting' on a QB. I never understood waiting forever for a QB, just to load up on guys like Kenyan Drake, Corey Davis, Isiah Crowell, etc in the early/mid rounds

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I'll be targeting Mahomes after Gurley, Zeke, and Barkley. I'm done dicking around with the likes of Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, etc due to 'waiting' on a QB. I never understood waiting forever for a QB, just to load up on guys like Kenyan Drake, Corey Davis, Isiah Crowell, etc in the early/mid rounds

For every draft strategy there are people who will win leagues with it and people who will get burned by it and swear it off. To me, it's just real easy to find a starting QB in late rounds or even after the draft in the majority of leagues. In one league I landed Rivers in the last round and Matt Ryan after the first week. In another Wilson "fell" to me in the middle rounds and I still ended up using a waiver find in Trubisky over him for a lot of weeks. The problem with taking a QB early is that you are more likely to end up relying on mid round guys like, Davis, & Crowell because you missed out on a top end option. Every strategy can work and will work if you draft the right guys, but I like the chances of finding a RB/WR1 in the early rounds and a QB1 in the late rounds, vs finding a QB1 in the early rounds and a consistently reliable RB/WR in the mid rounds.

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Assuming everyone is back next year for Pitt I would take Conner over Lindsay Mixon or Fournette. As seen this year Pitt RBs = auto points and they like to have a workhorse. I think his ceiling and floor is higher than both.

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To me RB hipster old school RB heavy is dead. RBs plug in and out all year and dont miss much of a beat. Top RBs bust more than Top WRs. As shown over the last few weeks with questionables all over the position and 3rd string RBs on good teams winning playoff games for fantasy players.

 

RBs come way out of no where all year long. Not many WRs who were never on a radar of any sorts come in and win games for people.

 

Sure you can win with any hand. But give me WR over RB early on in most situations.

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To me RB hipster old school RB heavy is dead. RBs plug in and out all year and dont miss much of a beat. Top RBs bust more than Top WRs. As shown over the last few weeks with questionables all over the position and 3rd string RBs on good teams winning playoff games for fantasy players.

 

RBs come way out of no where all year long. Not many WRs who were never on a radar of any sorts come in and win games for people.

 

Sure you can win with any hand. But give me WR over RB early on in most situations.

 

Last 5 or so years it's been WR-WR for me in the first two rounds. 3rd round is a toss up - if there is a good RB on the board I'll go for him, but I would take a WR in the 3rd as well.

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Last 5 or so years it's been WR-WR for me in the first two rounds. 3rd round is a toss up - if there is a good RB on the board I'll go for him, but I would take a WR in the 3rd as well.

I dont have a strict plan. I did like the very top RBs this year. But after about 6 of them its WR for a couple rounds usually.

 

Some of my strongest PPR teams ever were Stud WR heavy through the flex and late rounder flyers/3rd down backs/FAs to fill in at RB. Usually able to get a Delanie Walker type at TE.

 

It just seems like random RBs pop in the wire from start (Lindsay) to finish(jackson and williams).

 

It is great to have workhorses who you can count on all year. But ofherwise it really ends up being a lot of plug and plays or bench stashes getting their shot to play or worked enough into the rotation.

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For me, the key will be to focus in on bellcow RB's on decent to good offenses. They are getting harder and harder to find, but are immensely valuable.

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For me, the key will be to focus in on bellcow RB's on decent to good offenses. They are getting harder and harder to find, but are immensely valuable.

For sure if you have a top 5 pick take a 3 down recieving RB and hope he doesnt get hurt. But after that there are a lot of iffy situations with a position that sees more injury and seemingly more turnover year to year.

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I usually take RB/WR or RB/RB to start. This year in one I took Hunt/OBJ. Worked out well for a while.

 

The best argument for taking a QB early is the position is usually the most stable. Aside from Rodgers always whining about an injury, most QBs usually stay healthy.

 

That being said, I'm sure I'll go RB/WR again next year. I've had the most success with that

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I'll be targeting Mahomes after Gurley, Zeke, and Barkley. I'm done dicking around with the likes of Matt Stafford, Cam Newton, etc due to 'waiting' on a QB. I never understood waiting forever for a QB, just to load up on guys like Kenyan Drake, Corey Davis, Isiah Crowell, etc in the early/mid rounds

Yeah, but who is to say that Mahomes won't be next years Stafford or Newton? You waited this year and likely got Mahomes off waivers.

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Non ppr m Gordon is three spots to low.

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Yeah, but who is to say that Mahomes won't be next years Stafford or Newton? You waited this year and likely got Mahomes off waivers.

pure talent.

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Yeah, but who is to say that Mahomes won't be next years Stafford or Newton? You waited this year and likely got Mahomes off waivers.

Mahommes isn't like them. He is the real super star.

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As long as Reid is back he will be just fine, but 50 TDs again is very unlikely. I would expect something closer to 35

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Updated 1/15/19, NON-PPR; Movement from 12/20 rankings in parentheses.

Round One:

1. Todd Gurley
2. Saquon Barkley (+1)
3. Ezekiel Elliott (-1)
4. Alvin Kamara (+2)
5. Christian McCaffrey (-1)
6. Patrick Mahomes (+4)
7. Le'Veon Bell (-2)
8. DeAndre Hopkins
9. Melvin Gordon (-2)
10. Tyreek Hill (+7)
11. David Johnson (-2)
12. Davante Adams (-1)

Round Two:

13. Julio Jones (-1)
14. Michael Thomas (+4)
15. Joe Mixon (-1)
16. Travis Kelce (-1)
17. James Conner (+3)
18. JuJu Smith-Schuster (+12)
19. Antonio Brown (-3)
20. Nick Chubb (+5)
21. Mike Evans (+1)
22. Odell Beckham, Jr. (+2)
23. Adam Thielen (-2)
24. Zach Ertz (+4)

Round Three:

25. Chris Carson (+9)
26. Leonard Fournette (-13)
27. T.Y. Hilton
28. Phillip Lindsay (-9)
29. Keenan Allen (-3)
30. Marlon Mack (+1)
31. Andrew Luck (+2)
32. Dalvin Cook (-9)
33. A.J. Green (-4)
34. Sony Michel (+6)
35. George Kittle (+6)
36. Damien Williams (NEW)

Round Four:

37. Aaron Rodgers (+7)
38. Derrick Henry (-6)
39. Robert Woods (+3)
40. Stefon Diggs (-5)
41. DeShaun Watson (NEW)
42. Amari Cooper (-6)
43. Aaron Jones
44. Matt Ryan (NEW)

45. Julian Edelman (NEW)

46. Jared Goff (+2)
47. Brandin Cooks (NEW)
48. Jordan Howard (-10)

Just missing:

49. Ben Roethlisberger

50. Devonta Freeman

Thoughts??

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Assuming the Chiefs stick with Damien Williams, you gotta think he'll push for first round status.

 

He's big enough for goal line duty, and has soft hands in the passing game. In his (admittedly short) time as starter, he's averaging 19 PPG (non-PPR), which, projected over the course of a season, puts him as the number 2 RB.

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Agree If Williams is KC rb1 he’s a first rounder.

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Assuming the Chiefs stick with Damien Williams, you gotta think he'll push for first round status.

 

He's big enough for goal line duty, and has soft hands in the passing game. In his (admittedly short) time as starter, he's averaging 19 PPG (non-PPR), which, projected over the course of a season, puts him as the number 2 RB.

 

Pretty small sample size, though, and I have to think that the Chiefs are going to add someone to complement him. If he comes into camp as the unquestioned starter, then obviously his value will be much higher than this.

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Would love to own D. Williams next season, but maybe I'm the only one who thinks that we haven't heard the last of Spencer Ware.? He looked pretty good post-Hunt, before his injury. if I draft Williams, I will also need to own Ware...assuming no drastic changes in the KC backfield.

 

Although his biggest supporter this year, I certainly feel you are justified in dropping The Tasmanian Devil, Phillip Lindsay. I simply can't ignore his startling drop-off in production during the last few games, and Freeman is still lurking around.

 

Also, absolutely love what Carson did in Seattle this year, and the first pick of round three sounds okay.....although Penny really dulls the Carson shine for me a bit. Penny is a legit talent and, if healthy all year, I gotta believe he will eat substantially into Carson's production (as compared with this season). Again, one would need to own both backs in redraft leagues, making ownership of the Seahawk's backfield pretty pricey.

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Would love to own D. Williams next season, but maybe I'm the only one who thinks that we haven't heard the last of Spencer Ware.? He looked pretty good post-Hunt, before his injury. if I draft Williams, I will also need to own Ware...assuming no drastic changes in the KC backfield.

Ware is a FA. He's shown enough that I gotta think someone will offer him more than KC will be willing to pay.

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Ware wasn’t anything g much at all.

 

He had one game he had 8 att and had a 7 per yard avg on 8 att.

 

He’s nothing much.

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I think Mack is going to be much better then a third rounder.

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Assuming the Chiefs stick with Damien Williams, you gotta think he'll push for first round status.

 

He's big enough for goal line duty, and has soft hands in the passing game. In his (admittedly short) time as starter, he's averaging 19 PPG (non-PPR), which, projected over the course of a season, puts him as the number 2 RB.

I'm wondering if KC doesn't address RB in the draft. Bryce Love is projecting as a 2nd to 3rd rounder, but I imagine he'd be a great fit for that offense. I think Damien Williams is capable, but nothing really special as an RB talent.

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i would agree...IF THEY DON'T add another big name.

 

i think they like Mack, but he has not been durable, yet, so they might add another name player

I think Mack is going to be much better then a third rounder.

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i would agree...IF THEY DON'T add another big name.

 

i think they like Mack, but he has not been durable, yet, so they might add another name player

Funny how everyone keeps saying that Mack hasn’t been durable, yet he’s played in only two fewer games then Mixon.

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I'm wondering if KC doesn't address RB in the draft. Bryce Love is projecting as a 2nd to 3rd rounder, but I imagine he'd be a great fit for that offense. I think Damien Williams is capable, but nothing really special as an RB talent.

Agreed.

 

But in that offense he’s better then capable.

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I'm wondering if KC doesn't address RB in the draft. Bryce Love is projecting as a 2nd to 3rd rounder, but I imagine he'd be a great fit for that offense. I think Damien Williams is capable, but nothing really special as an RB talent.

Yeah, it's a wait and see thing. It's entirely possible, but, at the same time, RBs seems to be pretty plug and play in that offense. Do they spend an early pick on that position when they can always use help elsewhere?

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