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kilroy69

Will you take mahomes #1 overall next year

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Yep, whatever position I am in in the 1st round, if he is there, I am taking him.

 

He's only gonna get better, and will single-handedly win you weeks, when other guys on your squad have bad weeks. That's important.

 

I won 4 Championships outta 6 leagues, with a 3rd place finish in another. Owned Mahomie in all of them. The 6th league where I missed the playoffs, I didn't own him. I am sold.

 

I know that this isn't traditional logic, but I believe that QB's are less susceptible to injury, particularly with the enhanced rules protecting them....making the true "stud QB's" more valuable. Very good RB's can be found late in drafts and even post-draft, you just have to be a step ahead of other owners, especially on injury news. Heck, I won several of those ships with guys like Damien Williams, Elijah McGuire, Jamal Williams, Gus Edwards and CJ Anderson starting for me.

 

It's uncanny how often we're in lock step agreement. You must be a good looking guy with a great sense of humor as well.

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It's uncanny how often we're in lock step agreement. You must be a good looking guy with a great sense of humor as well.

 

I don't know if I would be comparing myself to a guy who's going to take a QB in round 1. ;)

 

Guys that do that have suspect judgement and are obviously hideous and humorless. He probably lives in his mom's basement too. :)

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My main league is a superflex and the teams that took the first 3 QB off the board (Rodgers, Watson, Brady) all missed the playoffs

 

I am in a superflex, and I took 2 of the first 3 QB's drafted

 

I took Cam at 9 and Brees at 15

 

I then traded Cam and Gordon for Mahomes, Chubb, Michel and Ridley after week 5

 

its a keeper

 

I get Mahomes as a 10th and Chubb as an 11th

:banana:

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I'll never draft a QB in the first round. No chance. While Mahomes had a monster year, it lined up perfectly for him. The Raiders cannot stop the pass. The Chargers were not as solid as usual in the backfield. The Broncos had injuries. Many of the teams the Chiefs played were not up to par at rushing the passer or against the deep ball. The NFL is a copycat league. I can assure you teams playing the Chiefs will be reviewing game film and using this offseason to prepare for them.

 

I do believe Mahomes will remain a top 5 fantasy QB for a long time, provided he's healthy. I do not see him having this type of season again though, at least not THIS good. If his stats regress minimally per game, which history shows they will, he will be in the QB 1-5 range. That's not worth drafting in the 1st or 2nd round. I don't touch a QB prior to round 5 and have always done well.

 

If you want a QB you can get several rounds later, take Andrew Luck in 2019. I have him on my largest dynasty team and believe he will be even better next season. The Colts have a ton of cap room and will bring him in another WR this offseason. Imagine him with someone other than Ebron and Hilton to play catch with. A true speedster is what I'd like to see them acquire.

 

 

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I'll never draft a QB in the first round. No chance. While Mahomes had a monster year, it lined up perfectly for him. The Raiders cannot stop the pass. The Chargers were not as solid as usual in the backfield. The Broncos had injuries. Many of the teams the Chiefs played were not up to par at rushing the passer or against the deep ball. The NFL is a copycat league. I can assure you teams playing the Chiefs will be reviewing game film and using this offseason to prepare for them.

 

I do believe Mahomes will remain a top 5 fantasy QB for a long time, provided he's healthy. I do not see him having this type of season again though, at least not THIS good. If his stats regress minimally per game, which history shows they will, he will be in the QB 1-5 range. That's not worth drafting in the 1st or 2nd round. I don't touch a QB prior to round 5 and have always done well.

 

If you want a QB you can get several rounds later, take Andrew Luck in 2019. I have him on my largest dynasty team and believe he will be even better next season. The Colts have a ton of cap room and will bring him in another WR this offseason. Imagine him with someone other than Ebron and Hilton to play catch with. A true speedster is what I'd like to see them acquire.

 

 

Luck will be gone by the 5th in my league next year. Half the owners in my league take QBs early every year.

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I'll never draft a QB in the first round. No chance. While Mahomes had a monster year, it lined up perfectly for him. The Raiders cannot stop the pass. The Chargers were not as solid as usual in the backfield. The Broncos had injuries. Many of the teams the Chiefs played were not up to par at rushing the passer or against the deep ball. The NFL is a copycat league. I can assure you teams playing the Chiefs will be reviewing game film and using this offseason to prepare for them.

 

I do believe Mahomes will remain a top 5 fantasy QB for a long time, provided he's healthy. I do not see him having this type of season again though, at least not THIS good. If his stats regress minimally per game, which history shows they will, he will be in the QB 1-5 range. That's not worth drafting in the 1st or 2nd round. I don't touch a QB prior to round 5 and have always done well.

 

If you want a QB you can get several rounds later, take Andrew Luck in 2019. I have him on my largest dynasty team and believe he will be even better next season. The Colts have a ton of cap room and will bring him in another WR this offseason. Imagine him with someone other than Ebron and Hilton to play catch with. A true speedster is what I'd like to see them acquire.

 

 

It's not like the Chiefs played a bunch of slouches this year. Yet, they became the first team in NFL history to record 26 points in every game they played.

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Probably not, but if I pick number 9-10 like I usually do, maybe round 2.

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I remember the year I took Kurt Warner #1 overall in 2002

 

1999 he had 41 TD

2000 he had 21 TD

2001 he had 36 TD

2002 he had 3 :cry:

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as a quantitative analyst, it irritates me that positional draft value question hasn't been deeply modeled. yes there are variables, but there should be strong, reliable correlations. if i could find the time, like to sit down in R and do a monte carlo simulation of the last few seasons for positional value maximization.

 

 

 

This is a great idea! I fully expect you to have this done by end of July 2019 for me. PM me when you're done do I can review your report.

 

 

fock that. On my desk by Friday.

 

You fockers are forgetting that Sirensong has TPS reports to do. No way he gets this done in the timeframe you are asking for it. :nono:

 

It is my opinion, that Mahomes fell into the perfect situation this season. How often do you walk into a starting job with potentially the best WR, best TE and a top 5 RB? An injury to Hill or Kelce could change everything. While he was FAR and AWAY the best value this year, next year, at the draft price he will command, he may not be. Less important than drafting Mahomes next year is find next years Mahomes. Lest we forget, he wasn't technically a rookie this year (as some have mentioned). He was a 1st year starter who was in his 2nd year in the exact same system. If KC loses their OC, Reid retires or as mentioned one of those incredible weapons he has were to go down, what then? Being the guy who drafts 2 stud RB's and WR's then hits on Baker Mayfield (next years Mahomes?) is the route to a championship.

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I made the mistake of drafting Vick and Gates the year after they both led their positions by a wide margin, neither had a good year and it was one of my worst ff teams ever. I'll choose RBs and WRs first every time.

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Let assume that mahomes can keep this up. Should you pick him in the first round?

 

Comparing the Top 10 at each position (using yahoo default scoring)

 

QB:

Total Season

1. Mahomes 430 -- 10. Rivers 297

Last 4 weeks

1. Allen 125 -- 10. Mayfield 93

Takeaway- Both the 4 week and season difference is about 8 points per week.

 

RB:

1. Gurley 342 -- 10. Johnson 221

Last 4 weeks

1. Henry 115 -- 10. Kamara 68

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 8 per week (if you remove henry outlier)

 

WR:

1. Hill 290 -- 10. Woods 222

Last 4 weeks

1. Hopkins 93 -- 10. Landry 70

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 5 per week.

 

TE:

1. Kelce 243 -- 10. McDonald 108

Last 4 weeks

1. Kittle 83 -- 10. Rudolph 43

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 9 per week.

 

 

So QB, RB, and TE all have between 8-10 points difference per week from the top performer and the 10th. WR is a bit more even at 5 points per week. That means you should be targeting the higher gap players in the first round, which could include Mahomes. Taking scarcity into account skews this in favor or RB early - but they are also the most risk prone. However, you have to do well sniping low end RB or TE in order to make up the difference, as you start 2-3 RB. Skimping on positions early will lead to your QB scoring 8 more points, but both your RB scoring 8 less - netting you a 8 point deficit. This is still a valid strategy though, especially if you are not confident in your options first and second round.

 

This bring me to the point most people forget - league trends. If all RB are flying off the board in the first round and you are 12th pick, do you take the 12th RB and 13th RB, or the 1 QB and 1 TE? This really comes down to a saying I have always used - Players in Rounds 1-3 dont win championships...but they sure can lose them. Take players that you "know" are a safe bet to get stable points every week. Dont overpay for injury prone players. You can take risks later on in the draft.

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Who you take #1, or who you take anywhere in a draft, is not about total points scored. If it were, QBs would likely be the first 10-12 players off the board. Where you take players, Mahomes and other QBs included, is based on their relative value to other players at their position. The difference between the #1 RB and the #10 RB might be huge whereas the difference between the #1 QB (assume Mahomes) and the #10 QB might be minimal. Does it make sense to take Mahomes at #1, or even in the first at all, if a QB drafted 10th, presumably several rounds later, offers only a minimal loss in points per game? Not really.

 

Value. This is what FFers have talked about for years. You draft for relative value, not the flashy points.

 

Now, that said, in my main league, I try to set the scoring so that QBs/RBs/WRs/and even elite TEs have roughly the same PPG value at the top end. What this does is make it plausible that a drafter could go several different ways with draft strategy. It is also a 2-QB league so QBs fly off the board like all positions. No one's waiting until the 7th or 8th round. It's a 10-team league and you want 3 QBs so they get picked. Someone will take Mahomes in the first next year. I generally try to get 2 QBs by the end of the 8th and my third by the 10th. If I don't, reliable QBs will be gone. At that point, I move into IDPs and then close out with backup picks and flyers. But that's a whole other discussion. That league is unique.

 

In more traditional 1-QB leagues, either 10-or 12-teamers, I wouldn't take Mahomes, or any QB, in the first. I've reached in the 3rd before and it's rarely worked out. Better to wait. Why take Mahomes in the first when I can get a Ryan/Rothlisberger/Goff/Rivers type later on?

 

Draft for value, not flash!

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Would you rather have Mahomes and Jordan Howard to start your draft, or Gurley and Evans?

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For what it's worth, here are the results of a poll I ran on FFToday's Twitter account...

 

Where would you feel comfortable drafting Patrick Mahomes in 2019?

 

22% - Round 1

42% - Round 2-3

30% - Round 4-5

6% - Round 6+

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I remember the year I took Kurt Warner #1 overall in 2002

 

1999 he had 41 TD

2000 he had 21 TD

2001 he had 36 TD

2002 he had 3 :cry:

That's so funny. I kinda did the same thing.

I remember I had the last pick in round 1. And I bypassed the stud rb strategy. And went Warner and Holt with the 1 and 2 swing picks.

 

Yeah, that was a bad idea.

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NFL defenses will catch up and he'll get his sophomore slump.

 

 

I think this is kind of a lazy assumption. From what I've witnessed, Big Red and this kid are almost a perfect combination. Mahomes is physically and mentally able to do most anything Andy can dream up and there are few, if any, more creative than Reid on the offensive side of the ball. Mahomes is going to get better at reading defenses and I'm not going to assume he has hit his ceiling. The marriage between coach and QB could be very special here. KC fans are feeling great right now.

 

I'm in a league that doesn't penalize QB's, so they get 6 points for every TD. Mahomes is definitely worthy of a 1st overall pick.

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Again, this is dependent on everything remaining the same...which it won't. Hell, OC Eric Bienemy is interviewing with just about everybody and is likely to get a gig somewhere. Again, if i don't come out with 2 good RB's in the first 3 rounds it's a bad draft.

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Let assume that mahomes can keep this up. Should you pick him in the first round?

 

Comparing the Top 10 at each position (using yahoo default scoring)

 

QB:

Total Season

1. Mahomes 430 -- 10. Rivers 297

Last 4 weeks

1. Allen 125 -- 10. Mayfield 93

Takeaway- Both the 4 week and season difference is about 8 points per week.

 

RB:

1. Gurley 342 -- 10. Johnson 221

Last 4 weeks

1. Henry 115 -- 10. Kamara 68

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 8 per week (if you remove henry outlier)

 

WR:

1. Hill 290 -- 10. Woods 222

Last 4 weeks

1. Hopkins 93 -- 10. Landry 70

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 5 per week.

 

TE:

1. Kelce 243 -- 10. McDonald 108

Last 4 weeks

1. Kittle 83 -- 10. Rudolph 43

Takeaway- Both season and 4 week difference is about 9 per week.

 

 

So QB, RB, and TE all have between 8-10 points difference per week from the top performer and the 10th. WR is a bit more even at 5 points per week. That means you should be targeting the higher gap players in the first round, which could include Mahomes. Taking scarcity into account skews this in favor or RB early - but they are also the most risk prone. However, you have to do well sniping low end RB or TE in order to make up the difference, as you start 2-3 RB. Skimping on positions early will lead to your QB scoring 8 more points, but both your RB scoring 8 less - netting you a 8 point deficit. This is still a valid strategy though, especially if you are not confident in your options first and second round.

 

This bring me to the point most people forget - league trends. If all RB are flying off the board in the first round and you are 12th pick, do you take the 12th RB and 13th RB, or the 1 QB and 1 TE? This really comes down to a saying I have always used - Players in Rounds 1-3 dont win championships...but they sure can lose them. Take players that you "know" are a safe bet to get stable points every week. Dont overpay for injury prone players. You can take risks later on in the draft.

This is flawed in the majority of leagues. If you have the #12 RB or WR he's a must start. In 1QB leagues, no one is starting the #12 QB every week. You can stream your way to mid QB1 numbers and be within 5 points of the top QB. The same can't be said at the other positions.
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I don't know if I would be comparing myself to a guy who's going to take a QB in round 1. ;)

 

Guys that do that have suspect judgement and are obviously hideous and humorless. He probably lives in his mom's basement too. :)

 

Mom! Some guy on the internet is picking on me!

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