Here's is why I say that your opinion, and virtually everyone else's opinion's on Winston are character based. Compare Winston's stats to guys like Eli, Rivers, and Ben... guys who all are considered H.O.F.'ers by a lot of people. Winston's progress isn't much different than either of them. Sure, he throws more Int's than Rivers and Ben, but he throws less than Eli. Project Winston's numbers out to 215 games like these guys and tell me what you find. You'll find that Winston's first 4 years is relatively close to each of those 3 (slightly better than Eli and slightly worse than the other two). That's also assuming that Winston, over the next 11 seasons will be exactly what he's been over the last 4, without ever getting better like those 3 did. Yes, Winston throws a lot of Int's, but over the last 2 seasons he's over 64.1% with a 7.9 ypa, a 4.6 TD%, and a plus 91 passer rating. These are facts. You want to sit there and use the excuse that he got benched because his coach was tying to keep his job and play the guy who was playing well, then you're just being lazy.
You can say all you want about "mouths to feed", but the fact is, there are LESS mouth's than last year and Godwin is moving up in the pecking order. Last year, he was the 4th/5th option behind Evans, Jackson, and Humphries / Howard... this year, he's number 2 behind Evans. He's going to get a ton of targets. I'll even go as far to say that he might get more than Evans this year because he's actually a bit more talented than Evans.
Godwin's target share was pretty even. In games solely started by Fitzpatrick, he had 30 targets in 5 games (6 avg). In the 8 games started solely by Winston, he got 53 targets (6.63 avg), so no real difference. The biggest piece that you're not taking into account is playing time/snap count. Last year, Godwin was the 3rd WR in snap counts at 64% behind Evans and Humphries. Over the last 5 games of the season, with Winston, Godwin got 80, 85.7, 82, 76.3, & 83.6 percent. In the previous 11, he hit 70% only once. In those last 5 games, he averaged 7 targets a game, where as in the previous 11, he averaged 5.5 per game.
Note, I didn't say "wrong system", it was Oldtimer... he actually said "wrong offense" which to me is the same thing. If it's not to you or he, then my bad. But my response was to him regarding OJ Howard, not Godwin. That said, it's not really a "new system" (as you put it), either way. Koetter and Arians are relatively similar, it's just that Arians is better at calling the right play at the right time. Now, it will be Leftwich calling the plays, so from that aspect, there could be issues, I won't argue against that. Though, it's still Winston throwing the ball and going through the progressions. This year will play out a lot more like the end of last year where Godwin was on the field 81.3% of the time and not the 57.3% from the first 11.
You don't think I can make a linear projection on targets. Fine, you tell me. I'll give you 550 targets to fill, so that it's easier for you to make an argument against Godwin... because I think we all know that the Bucs are going to throw the ball a lot closer to 600 times than they will 550. Go! Who's getting what / how many? With all your "mouths to feed", you shouldn't have a hard time coming up with a reason why Godwin won't increase his target share by at least 20%.
If someone else thinks I'm wrong on this, please, let me know. I just think the "too many mouth's to feed" and the bad QB arguments just don't hold any water.