American Chewy

full disclosure i'm not a winning player when it comes to football. probably 95% of us aren't. here's what i've learned though from years of losing.... 1. dont back bad teams...the books never set lines high enough IMO. i'm talking the dregs of the league here. you want to back teams that can actually realistically win the game. 2. conversely dont lay more than a TD. the avg NFL team just wants to win, they aren't looking for style points to impress pollsters or trick computers. 2. fade recency bias as much as possible. the books set the lines based on perception as much as anything in hopes of balancing their tickets. 3. pay attention to injuries...and not just fantasy players we follow...defenders and o-lineman matter greatly too. Here are my losers so far (obtained from various online books like 5D, Bovada, Heritage): JAGS +3.5 (legit defense that slowed mahomes last yr with a healthy and upgraded offense under foles/difilippo, this will be a game) TITANS +6 (hype fade on the browns, titans defense is legit and browns o-line has issues. also beckham isn't 100%) COLTS +6.5 (brissett is being undersold, chargers banged up on defense and not much of a homefield) LIONS -2.5 (lions D-line is a mismatch for cards o-line, rookie headcoach and QB in their first game i'll pay to see how they do, cards are missing some corners)

"fading the public" sounds good in principle if you can find accurate information for which side the public is actually backing. most free sites i don't trust their information and really what matters is the handle size not the number of tickets written. GL finding the actual dollar amounts wagered on a side without paying for that information (professional gamblers pay hundreds a month to sites like vegasinsider for this info). honestly the best method if you want to "fade the public" is to go down to your local sportsbar 30 minutes before kickoff and ask various barstool pundits what they think about a side.

Yeah Geronimo im prob less worried about than miller. Mostly cause rodgers>>>>>>>>>>>>>>trubisky

More droppable...miller with his one target or allison with his one target? Least I've got options for week 1 waivers.

jones did fine last season. i guess i should say, if rodgers isn't 100% but still playing.

as long as rodgers is healthy, it will be frustrating to own a packers RB

gonna require more than 2 passes in this game going over 5 yards

i'll take it. blocked out like a basketball player. allison took his man out too.

they need to just go shotgun

i was close to benching rodgers for winston but couldn't pull the trigger. i'm worried, yes.

definitely holding on to harris now

Im dropping jones for my kicker this weekend. I dont see myself using him or regretting dropping him.

If dallas has a big lead zeke will have been a part of it and likely paid off even if they do rest him later in the game.

Already put the 5 people who drafted in front of me on notice. Zeke will finish as the #1 RB.

as scientific and well researched as these picks no doubt are, i'm quietly not real upset i dont own any of the wrs or rbs on this list.

i'm preparing to play without zeke this week

miller had some injury issues of his own all preseason. i'm in wait and see mode with him. if/when he's 100% though I love his upside as a flex starter for me this season.

So much for darwin. Hes basically droppable.

Life savings on over

I took zeke and gurley. Go big or go home i guess.

Zeke owner. I wont be nervous till morning of first real game. Jones is going to pay him.

Hmm. Im pretty sure hes been through concussion protocol a few times but didnt miss any games. There was some thought they were gonna be careful with his usage so he didnt get another. This was a few yrs ago. Probably not relevant now.

wasn't duke's issue with concussions?

If you are a gurley owner, malcom brown. Hes going to be the early down/GL back. Hes basically free now.

i'm drafting 6th in .5 ppr and i plan on going wr over him even if he's there. i want safe with my first rounder with league winning upside. johnson could be a league winner but doesn't feel safe enough for a top 6 pick. hopkins and adams have proven to perform even with suboptimal qb play. if murray has a rough go or gets injured johnson is toast imo.