checkdown

Quiet on the blog but moving over there exclusive... hit me here http://checkdownchatter.com/?p=3371 Good luck this week:

The Chargers give up sub 4 per carry, 92 a game and just 5 rushing scores on the season. I only go so far with RB ranks, as you know, and Williams is right around the bubble in my eyes, but I'd start Dwyer over him. His long catch and score last week was a game saver for fantasy owners but otherwise Williams has carried for just 21, 67, 56 yards over the past three weeks.

Are you trying to decide between Hartline and Britt, then?

Both guys carry risk. Wilson is coming off a big game in prime time. He looked good running the ball and now takes on starting duties but its possible that we're all overreacting to a big game; he could wilt under a full workload. McFadden had his highest rushing output of the season against KC the last time these two teams played; however, he left last week's game early with a small injury and while he's probable to go today I have him a little lower on the list because a) he hasn't had a great season as you know and if he gets dinged again it seems likely to me that the Raiders will again air on the side of caution here and yank him out, given that the games don't mean anything. So, I'd go Wilson as the workload is guaranteed for him. The Falcons and Chiefs give up the 8th and 9th most points to fantasy RBs on the season... but, again, I'd go with the guy with the top 10 matchup whose touches seem to be a lock.

I'd sit Nicks. It comes down to he and Decker to me. White will play for Atlanta, but, if he's at all limited Jones will see an uptick in targets against a beatable Giants secondary. Wayne has been consistent, the Texans have had trouble against the pass, and the Colts should have to air it out in this one; and I like a healthy Decker with Peyton tossing the ball better than a banged up Nicks with Eli throwing it. Atlanta has only given up 13 passing scores this year.

There is also Brandon Gibson who posted 9 yards but two scores with Amendola out in between. Regarding Hartline, I'm just expecting that game to be won with Reggie Bush... if Hartline gets a chunk of yards but doesn't score his rank should be in the right range. Really, it speaks more to what I feel is a strong class/strong matchups for the guys in the 20-35 range that I have Hartline low, not speaking poorly about him. I could have spelt his name correctly but I don't think that I could move him up - there is a PPR bonus for Hartline, but, since getting destroyed by Andre Johnson in week 11 the Jags haven't given up more than 54 yards to any WR.

I am a bit... on my notebook this week I made a reference to the matchup, but, it seems pretty clear to me that Britt is going to be a focal point of Tennessee's new offense and he looks to be healthy on the field now. He went 8 for 9 on his targets last week and posted nice numbers. Cro and the Jets did a decent job against Arizona and Jacksonville but gave up a fair number of points to top receivers in New England and Seattle the weeks prior.

Have 30-45 this morning while working on my post at http://checkdownchatter.com/?p=3371 . Hit me here; or for a bit more detail on the blog, with last minute questions. Good luck this week.

Sorry guys... getting a little bit behind at the spot where the hits actually matter... check me here http://checkdownchatter.com/?p=3302 for more. Gotta run.

Home market in my city is brutal... I rent. I'd go with Stafford. The weather may impact him with snow... but, as you point out its looking like a 95% chance of rain in NE tomorrow night too... The Patriots are improving (modestly) at pass D; so the matchup might be less of a boon than it was a month ago. I know just three weeks ago Stafford put up a clunker against the Packers but he's been money since then and I think we'll see lots of points in this game, snow or otherwise... he's going to pound the ball to Calvin Johnson and I think he'll continue his recent tear. I know Stafford doesn't have a ton of options outside of his number one guy, but, Schaub doesn't really either. Schaub has had two monsters this month, but, outside of that he hasn't topped 300 yards at all.... go with Stafford. In a PPR I'm on Jennings. Garcon has the upside, but, I think Jennings gets more targets... with Garcon you're praying for a long TD. He has chemistry with Griffin and may just get it, but, I think they're going to run the ball first, second, and third against the Ravens this week so there may not be enough targets to go around. Good luck with your mortgage!

I get it... and, if upside is necessary/if you're projected to lose, whatever... then maybe the gamble is worth it with Gordon.. if you're looking for consistent numbers I'd trust Smith more.

Happy to help... gotta fill my Sunday morning somehow. The team looks good, I made a comment below on Pettigrew... I get your point against Smith and I said in my ranks post this week that I was very impressed with the effort that Gordon turned out last week... rather than putting up fantasy points by catching 2 long passes and a score he caught a few balls in different scenarios and wound up with 6 grabs for a nice number. BUT... Cam is playing better football of late, the Panthers are motivated for this game, and they posted 28 last time out against the Falcons. Atlanta may be shifting coverage, but, don't forget that their secondary got banged up a bit last week and they are down a few bodies there... I would temper expectations a bit but Smith is still the better option to me. I see Gordon's upside, but, I think that the floor is higher with Smith against the Falcons than I do with Gordon against a Chiefs D that is top 10 in terms of yards per game allowed to the pass (though, in fairness they have given up 25 passing scores)

FWIW, arguably, the Saints game isn't all that big for them... while they are telling themselves that they are still in the hunt... the season is over and they just got beat by a division rival. I don't think they'll tank, but, it could be a letdown spot.

Intruging league... points for touchdowns at all? If you get points for TDs, I like Hernandez a little more than I do otherwise because I think that the Patriots are more likely to spread the receivers out in goal to go situations than they are to point the ball with Ridley this week because the Texans are limited at corner... Either way though, Jennings is your guy. Per my Cobb response I think he gets a fair number of looks from Arod with Nelson down... the timing of that injury couldn't have been better for Jennings owners as it will necessitate his return to the top of the food chain.

--- Particularly in a PPR I think Graham gets more looks today... Jennings might slip right back into being the Packers number 1 targeted receiver.