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defectivesupport

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  1. defectivesupport

    Week1 ACTUAL Observations

    Mclaurin seems to be a very real WR2. Constantly getting behind the eagles DEF. Should have added another 70+ TD (had a large lead) onto his totals but Keenum just missed his throw. It's apparent WAS isn't afraid to throw it down field, and Mclaurin was the one constantly there for those attempts. I'll glady take him where I can as a very high upside WR2/3.
  2. defectivesupport

    Axe Elf's Matchup Lineup Contest - Week 1

    QB: Kirk Cousins RB1: Ezekiel Elliott RB2: Chris Carson WR1: DeAndre Hopkins WR2: D.J. Moore WR3: John Brown Flex: --Only 1 is playing. TE: Delanie Walker K: Only 1 is playing DST: Pittsburgh
  3. defectivesupport

    Fantasy MVP for 2019

    Jared Cook. That division is setup for shootouts. TB, ATL, NO, and CAR all have lower tier defenses and decently pass heavy offenses [maybe barring CAR] - keeping the games long (more plays) and the points high. All it takes is the saints to send 80/120 targets missing from last years players and a 800 yard/10 TD season is not an unreasonable ceiling for him. If he pilfers a few of kamara's targets to keep him fresh, he could become the top TE in the league.
  4. defectivesupport

    Le'Veon Bell or James Connor??

    Depends how you like to play fantasy. Conner is in a known system that has pretty much only lost AB from last year. He is much more likely to be stable and produce - even if its a bit lower than last year. "Safely" a top 20 back. 50% chance to be a top 10. Lev Bell on the other hand is going from not playing football for a year into a system that is headed by Adam Gase. Gase was Miami's coach since 2016, and saw Ajayi run for 1300 and 30 receptions, then saw drake only get 150 rushes a year for the next two. The problem is, Bell could easily end up like either of those. He could become the checkdown for the inexperienced darnold and be very active, or he could be put in a RBBC where he's eased back into football. Lev Bell has the much higher ceiling, but also the much lower floor.
  5. defectivesupport

    Do and do not draft (based on real draft experiences)

    I fully agree with all of these...I have no idea how people are confidently drafting these guys rounds 1-2. Those are supposed to be your safe point rounds. I'll even add Chubb to this list. He was only averaging 50 yards rushing and 2 catches for 20 yards over the final 6 games against teams not the bengals (with backup QB and no green/boyd). And even those games were barely RB1 worthy games. I don't see the hype here at all, especially because hunt should vulture at least 5 carries and 1 rec per game when he comes back...this could put chubb around 15 rushes and 1-2 receptions a game. I have no idea how people can confidently take this guy round 1. I feel like all they remember is the one game he had 173 yards because of a 92 yard TD.
  6. defectivesupport

    Chubb?

    I honestly have no idea where the Cleveland offense is the best in the league thing came from. They added OBJ and suddenly they are amazing? This assumes the offense will throw more...and well. If the consensus is that OBJ and Mayfield will do well - why is chubb still being rated as a top round pick. With similar offense last year Chubbs last 6 games went: [RUSH-TD/Rec yds - TD] 81-0 / 44-1 -bengals with backup QB and missing green. 34-1/ 34-0 - texans 66-1 /17-0 - Panthers 100-0 / 0-0 - Broncos 112-0/ 3-0 - Bengals with backup QB, no green or boyd. 24-0/(-4)-0 - Ravens So literally every game they faced a decent team, chubb had a RB2-3 game. Without the bengals games, chubb averages 50 yards rushing with 2 catches for 20 yards. This is barely an RB2. The moment they decide to keep chubb fresh or mayfield rushes 5 times a game, he is around the territory of the 4th round. Then hunt comes back and probably steals 5-10 carries a game? Chubb's ceiling is probably 100 rushing and 4-30 per game, but given last year, the TD's don't go to him unless he breaks a long run. I'm avoiding chubb rounds 1-2 as I do not feel he is anywhere near as safe as his ranking lets on.
  7. defectivesupport

    Drafting from the 12 spot

    Drafting in the 12 spot you need to be flexible. It really depends who drops to you. As a general thought - many point to going RB early with the argument that the position is scarce. Well, here's a chart of position scarcity Vs points they give to your team (PPR): Positon and amount Rank Point / Game Round Picked QB Rank 1 26 2-3 8 Rank 2-10 20-22 5-12 9 Rank 11-20 17-19 12+ WR Rank 1 22 1 4 Rank 2-5 20-22 1-2 9 Rank 6-15 17-19 2-3 7 Rank 16-23 15-17 3-4 8 Rank 24-32 13-15 4-10 30 Rank 24-32 10-13 12+ 31 Rank 33-64 7-10 12+ RB Rank 1 27 1 6 Rank 2-8 20-24 1 0 None 17-19 - 5 Rank 9-14 15-17 2 6 Rank 15-20 13-15 3-4 21 Rank 21-42 10-13 4-10 23 Rank 43-66 7-10 12+ TE Rank 1 18 2 2 Rank 2-3 15-17 3-4 1 Rank 4 13-15 4 6 Rank 5-11 10-13 5-10 11 Rank 11-22 7-10 12+ As you can see - There is a big advantage to take the best available in the first 2 rounds. Most positions fall off - RB especially hard. These are just last years numbers as well, so outside those you know will perform, is there a need to force pick a question mark RB early when you can safely pick a RB rounds 4-10 that will get you 10-13 points and "guarantee" your top tier of points at WR. As you can see, most of the combos end up close in theory. WR-WR [20]+ [22,22,13]+[10,10]+[7] = 104 WR-RB [20] + [22,13,10]+[17,15] +[7] = 104 RB-RB [20]+ [15,15,10]+[17,17]+[7] = 101 RB-TE [20]+ [13,13,10]+[17,15]+[18]= 106
  8. defectivesupport

    Where does Antonio Brown become value vs. risk?

    The real question is - what do you feel AB's value in Oakland truly is? Even if he plays the whole season, there is reasonable evidence with Carr as QB of how WR perform. Take 2016-2018, there has been 1 year where any WR got over 1000 yds - and that year saw both Cooper and Crabtree do it, barely. Looking at targets, OAK has an avg of 530 targets/year throwing to WR with 55% of those targets. So there is 275 targets to share for WR, MAX 350 over the past 5 years with Carr. If you assume AB's ceiling is to get half the targets, that's 135 targets [max 175]. Which with Oak in past seasons equates to about 1100 yards and 6 TDs [max 1400 yds and 10 Td] . So if you believe that Oak will honor AB and throw to him, his value is right around WR2 with WR1 upside. So when would WR that have that stat line without the risk be gone - well usually mid round 3. Cooper, Diggs, Thielen are around the same tier but with 'less' risk. So the value would begin after that. TLDR Late round 3, after the similar WR are gone.
  9. defectivesupport

    Trading out of #1 spot advice

    Agreed. Swapping positions is pretty bad for you as 8/14 isn't the best spot to begin with. I'd at least want a 6th rounder to make up the difference - a 4th or 5th preferably. Just looking at ADP youd drop from RB1 + [RB13,WR12,TE2] + [RB14,WR13,TE2] to RB6/WR3 + [RB10-12, WR8-10, TE1-2] + [RB20,WR16,TE3] This drops you a tier at almost every position in the top 3 rounds. The only way you come out ahead is if you happen to get a top 10 RB with your round 2 pick - or if you really like the round 2 TE play. Otherwise the quality at 2.06 is about the same as 2.14 - in the same general tier at least. So that's giving up a top RB pick for very little gain on your end.
  10. defectivesupport

    David Johnson 2019

    Just think of this as you having the 6th pick in draft. Keepers being the forced first round. If you had 6th pick would you take DJ or Adams? Do you like the WR in rounds 3-6 better than the RB from 3-6? Whichever of the groups you like better 3-6 makes it more beneficial for you to take the opposite R1. If you dont feel there is good enough RB value after R2, then maybe even take 2 RB right away. This is all up to how you think teams will do this year. TLDR: Adams is safer value, but RB are generally harder to come by. Depends on how you value the mid round player pool.
  11. defectivesupport

    Trading out of #1 spot advice

    Depends what pick you are. But generally 1 [1] +28 [2] = 14 [1]+15 [2] +71 [6]. If you want to throw in 42 [4] as well, that most likely makes it too disadvantageous to you. Anything 3-6 + swapping rounds 1 and 2 is value for the #1 pick guy to begin with. So if you want the top pick and are willing to throw some advantage to them in trade for it, swapping your 1-2 and adding a 4 or 5 is probably where your offer should be.
  12. defectivesupport

    Full point PPR rank these three

    DJ - Simply because of confidence in situation. Most likely to not be lower than round 1-2 quality. Conner - PIT runs a lot. Losing AB will stack the box a few more times and Jaylen/others might steal some snaps, but Conner should still get plenty of volume. Conner only started 12 games in 2018 and still was a top 10 back. 200 attempts [800 yds] with 50 [400 yds] receptions is probably about Conner's floor assuming no terrible injury. I'm honestly not sold on Conner as a 1st round value - but I still take him over Bell if im being forced to choose. If he stays healthy he could hit 1200 rushing and 500 receiving. Bell - The NYJ had 77 target to RB total last year and 104 the year before that. They also haven't had a 1000 yd rusher since Ivory in 2015 because of committee type schemes. With Darnold stealing some goal line TD's and the WR core a lower tier than PIT, I could easily see bell around the range of 1100 yds rushing and 300 yds receiving with 50 catches. However, I feel like his floor is even lower - think Matt forte on the Jets. 800 rushing and 250 receiving. I have Bell lower than Conner because I don't feel Bell is a safe 1st round pick at all - I feel he has a higher chance to be a total dud than Conner. The rule I go by is - Championships are not usually won in the first 2 rounds, but they sure can be lost in them.
  13. defectivesupport

    Good Questions / Strategies

    1. How soon do you take Darrell Henderson? In PPR, I have henderson in my tier with other RB that "Are backups with a chance to get some playing time by committee" So Jaylen Samuels, Royce Freeman, and Austin Ekeler type. This ends up being in the RB25-30 range. Honestly his current ADP is mid 7th round... which is when all that remains are guys like Jordon howard and and other RBBC guys and backups. WR though - Will Fuller, Sutton, Kirk etc are all going around that range, so you'd have to lose a chance on one of them to reach for a 'backup'. I usually take him in the 9th if he's still there, but he rarely is. It really depends how the early draft goes though, if I ended up going WR-WR-RB-WR or something like that, then I might consider henderson in the 6th or 7th to give a chance for my RB position to be great instead of mediocre - as the guys you can fill in that will play RBBC later will be somewhat equivalent to guys you'll get in that round for RB. 2. Where's the Mendoza line with RB's this year ? RB24 is where my cutoff for starter vs RBBC/low usage begins. After Carson, you get into the taric cohens, Lamar Millar, PHI backfield type players. 3. Who is good value in rounds 3 - 5 at WR ? Its less of finding value in round 3-5, and more about stability at WR. Most of the guys in this range wont be top 10 WR, but will score a good amount per week. Reaching later in the draft nets guys that will have top 10 weeks, but also low performances. To this effect, if I'm going for WR in this range I'm looking for guys like Thielen, Cooper, TY Hilton, Edelman, Allen, and Golladay in 3-4. After that I generally look for value elsewhere as the WR near 4-5 as I do not feel there is stability value for guys such as Lockett, and I don't want to risk LAR receivers as 3 are going round 3-5 and I don;t feel they can all produce again this year. I'd rather fill out Ertz in round 4-5 instead of taking a WR that people hype up but doesn't have a track record of putting up the points players from the 3-5 rounds put up. 4. Who are your top 10 of DO NOT DRAFT: 1. Antonio brown - I know he's supposed to be better than Amari cooper....but he's similar. I want nothing to do with that again. 2-5. LAR receivers. I can't see all of them doing well again this year...I dont want split games for that high of draft picks. 6. Kenyan Drake...Miami hates him. 7. Tyler Lockett - No way he can keep up that TD rate. 8. I don't have many more specific, mostly just those that I feel are going way too high for their value (mahomes, juju etc. ) 5. Who are the best handcuffs out there ? Honestly, James White, Ekeler, Ballage... any of the guys that might even get some touches before their starter gets hurt. 6. What should I do if I don't get one of the top 4 TE's ? This honestly depends on how high you rate the mid pack. After Hunter Henry, Evan Engram, Vance McDonald, Jared Cook, and Eric Ebron (which go R7 ish) - Pretty much all TE go in round 12+. So if you like a Walker, or Eifert, or Burton, Andrews, or Rudolph - you can just wait for later rounds and pick 2 of them and see which one pans out better.
  14. defectivesupport

    2019 Consensus Rankings Voting Thread: QUARTERBACKS

    1. Deshaun Watson 2. Cam Newton 3. Andrew Luck 4. Pat Mahomes 5. Aaron Rodgers 6. Matt Ryan 7. Jameis Winston 8. Baker Mayfield 9. Drew Brees 10. Carson Wentz 11. Lamar Jackson 12. Jared Goff 13. Philip Rivers 14. Jimmy Garoppolo 15. Tom Brady 16. Kyler Murray 17. Russell Wilson 18. Josh Allen 19. Kirk Cousins 20. Ben Roethlisberger
  15. defectivesupport

    2019 Consensus Rankings Voting Thread: TIGHT ENDS

    1. Travis Kelce 2. George Kittle 3. Zach Ertz 4. Hunter Henry 5. Vance McDonald 6. O.J. Howard 7. Trey Burton 8. Mark Andrews 9. Jared Cook 10. Eric Ebron 11. Tyler Eifert 12. Delanie Walker 13. Greg Olsen 14. Evan Engram 15. Benjamin Watson
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