lesjroza

Congrats on nabbing Jones Mull, very smart. I wish I had seen that coming earlier because he is actually the WR who is affected the most by Jennings being out at this point. Had I picked him up in all my dynasty leagues I could be trading for Jennings on the cheap right now and know I have a 1 starter this year and likely 2 next year. I was just celebrating Cobb because I am a happy owner but it looks like Cobb is good the rest of the way no matter Jennings status and Jones would take the hit should Jennings come back. A couple of hours ago Rotoworld had Cobb locked in as a WR2 on the news, now they are saying WR1. By tommorrow it will be #1 WR overall.... well I can dream can't I! Plus if Rotoworld says it, it's gotta happen that way! http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6497/randall-cobb

I wouldn't say YOU should drop him until there is a more clear timeline but I don't see him being startable until the FF playoffs and that seems like a risky call without having a clear idea of his health,stamina,sharpness, and the GB target allocation at that point. Basically I would drop him in most of my leagues with my rosters (except dynasty) if there is another mildly interesting player on the WW but I would definitely not tell anyone else to do that without more info. Plus I don't actually own him except for in 1 dynasty league I just traded AJ for him. I did know this was a possibility and I did not do it for this year.

Rotoworld says surgery is scheduled for next week in Philly. You'd think a brother could get a quicker appointment, then again given that it's going to be in Philly maybe it gets rescheduled and pushed back at the last minute!

Was adding the same thread at the same time but I don't think it's a MAY, I have a twitter link. by a GB local TV sports director

First of all I spent MORE than a number 1 pick (sacrificed some slots to trade up)to take Foster and I am quite happy with how my investment has turned out so far. Secondly, I spent another early pick on AP and I am happy with that also. There are definitely WRs with high point totals relative to the RBs and the WRs required a smaller investment according to draft slot but the bottom line here is the RELATIVE POINT PERFORMANCE within the 2 seperate categories. To understand this better just look at the first and last lines of your own words starting this thread. Man..it seems like theirs not 1 dominant rb out there these days..you can't even say the top 3 rbs that were drafted is anywhere close to dominant.. a lot of teams dont even have a legitimate rb..crazy crazy So far any one of those 3 first pick RBs has an EXTREMELY LARGE POINT DIFFERENTIAL against teams that do not have even 1 legitimate RB. That is actually unusual because you would expect 1 of those RBs to just disappoint and mayb another to be hurt for at least a few games. It's all in how you think about things but I actually believe the polar opposite of your comments to be the case.

Bringing this thread back toward the front because trade dealines will be coming up soon in many leagues. I have 2 leagues where the deadline is actually this week on Saturday evening. I owned Andre Johnson in 2 leagues and decided to move him in both. I think it made sense for my roster and situation in both leagues and I know if you own him your assesment of your roster matters but here is what I ended up getting for him in case you are considering the same move. In one league I traded Andre Johnson straight up for Greg Jennings. In the other I traded Andre + 2nd round pick next year for P. Garcon + 1st round pick next year. Ignore it, discuss it, or bring up some other move you want to make if you think it might help. Let's help each other out here people!

I agree with option #1 by a pretty wide margin actually. In addition to the reasons others have mentioned Eli has a pretty nice playoff schedule should you make it there....

Cobb is now starting for me also regardless of when Jennings comes back although I'll give it a couple of weeks after he does to see how it develops. FWIW I actually traded AJ in the 2 dynasty leagues I own him. I traded straight up for Jennings in one and Garcon + a 1st for AJ + a 2nd in the other. These deals were not about this year obviously or I would be way on the short end. Those deals made sense for my roster but as another AJ owner who is going to have Cobb starting I'm curious what you think of the value Kutulu?

I love JJ. I am personally willing to give up more than what his current value should be according to his production so far this year based on my belief that he will continue to develop especially in a dynasty league. The bottom line to this point however, is that he has just not gotten the job done. I have watched several games where he has had the opportunity to make plays including EASY TDs and he has not come through. The stats so far bear out my observation. Targets through week 6 Rank 12 Julio Jones WR ATL targets 54 catches 30 Percentage 56.0 He ranks #12 in targets through week 6 which is WR 1 territory. His catch percentage is the 3rd lowest in the top 24! Low WR2 territory. Until he develops further there are BETTER options on his own team. He is better this year than he was last. If he continues to work hard he will be better next year than he is this year and so on.... Almost forgot, this despite single coverage much of the time. Target rank 21 Demaryius Thomas targets 48 catches 32 catch percentage 66.7 D. Thomas ranks #21 low WR2 in targets but top 4 overall in catch percentage which guy do you think deserves more targets in the second half of the season? Oh and one of the 3 WRs ahead of Thomas in catch % is........... Roddy White!

This is a good question. I think it has to do with peoples perception of upside. Miller will probably continue to get the same types and frequency of targets which means he probably won't ever go for 8/110 2. That is what some people think is other TEs upside on any given week. I have Miller in several leagues having drafted him cheaply and I am happy to start him over those upside options weekly now. I stupidly started the other upside guys (even though I personally evaluated Miller higher) for a couple of weeks costing me several wins across a few leagues. If you own him you shouldn't care where he is ranked unless you let others ranks affect your confidence enough to bench him as I did earlier in the year.

I suspect this ends up being a time-share/hot hand situation from what I have seen so far from both. That would render both entirely useless unless the other goes down IMHO. I would rather own Ballard in a dynasty and think he is capable of developing further, but I would be shocked if the Colts don't attempt to upgrade the position in the offseason. I would think that Brown still gets the starter designation when healthy until the Colts fall out of contention and then if Ballard has continued to develop he may get a long look as the feature RB in last quarter of the season. Just my analysis based on observation and tea leaves as I see it FWIW.

I am happy to see that some guys are willing to step up and post that opinion. I feel pretty much the same way, but I didn't care to get slammed with stats because it doesn't really matter that much to me one way or the other. I will now go a little further and say I actually LIKED what I saw from him in comparison to Brown. I felt the little they ran on early downs Ballard was getting what was blocked and compared to Brown, while not as explosive, has a better chance of keeping the O "on time" and putting them in 3rd and manageable which can make a big difference. For me he looks like he can be the Thomas Jones compared to Cedric Benson when they were with the Bears. Those 2 RBs ended the year with the same YPC but Benson never got to start because -1,-1,0,16 has a far different effect on the rest of the offense than 3,4,3,4 even though they add up to the same stats in FF. It didn't work out this week but it's too early to say one way or the other.

I don't follow the Ravens closely so I have little to add of importance except these 3 nuggets. 1) 5 games is far too small a sample size to accurately determine exploitable trends. 2) Most teams and especially offenses play better at home. 3) The no-huddle portion of the offense (where Flacco may have rung up some stats) is far easier to run with a partisan crowd if you are not Peyton Manning who works tirelessly with his WRs on every possible scenario, hand signals etc.

I second this notion. I am definitely starting him. Add to the above Finley and Williams out or limited. I figure the top corner is locked down on Jordy. Cobb might even be back in the backfield some for the swing passes with Benson out. It all looks really good, the only thing that gives me any pause at all is towering JJ Watt knocking down those short crossing passes but scared and stupid is no way to go through life....

I thought I had remembered reading prior to my dynasty rookie draft that Ballard was handpicked by the coaching staff as opposed to a scouting dept/GM pick. I was afraid to write it because I have no link or article to quote. In any case, if Ballard should win the job due to performance or by default with a slow Brown recovery it could turn quite a train because look at the full FF stregnth of schedule with link provided below. That is alot of Green with no Red and 2 good playoff matchups in most of my scoring systems. http://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats.php?o=3&PosID=20&Data=Last5&Show1=6&Show2=17&LeagueID=1

Good and for comparison sake open this side by side with the below. Ballard was taken before Morris. Before you go off I am not saying Ballard will have similar success to Alfred. They are two different situations with different players around them. What I am saying is do not look at Ballard's stats and dismiss the possibility he can be successful enough to help your FF team. http://m.nfl.com/combine/profile/2533457/alfred-morris/

He is a rookie and has a style and skillset which requires the opportunity to get into the flow of a game in order to get hot. It's not surprising or indicative that his YPC is low with the small sample size in sporadic carries. Definitely a great pickup at this point in the season and given the fact that many thought he would replace Donald Brown by midseason anyway if he learned protection schemes should be grabbed in all leagues. I have already done so.

Prior to the Amendola injury I would have said don't do the trade or at least try to slow play it for a cpouple of weeks to see how the TB running game looks after the bye. After the Amendola injury I would say make the trade.

If you are going to be taking a flyer anyway what about Carolina? Eli has been known to throw a pick or two on occasion. No Nicks or Bradshaw, seems like a shot at some turnovers on broken assignments. Just a thought, I'm not reccomending just wondering what you guys think. You do get to watch them as a bonus on Thursday night too.

I'm in this week but it doesn't look like there will be enough. I played a few times last year after I decided to deposit $25 for fun. I think I had a deposit bonus of like $10 for a referral bonus and another $10 for I don't know what. Anyway I must have won something at some point with my entries last year because I now have a $54 balance (prior to entry this week). I'm typically so busy this time of the year that I end up not checking in to see how I've done in contests. I'm curious if anyone has had a large enough winning that they pulled some out and how that went.

There are several ways that this could happen but I think there could be as high as a 15-20% chance the pivotal player who ends up on a high percentage of championship FF teams is going to be...........Ben Tate. Especially if they are non-Foster owners.

I caught a tweet the other day that Luck had been moved up into Rotoworld's top 10 dynasy players.... OVERALL! Not top 10 QBs, top ten overall. I am curious if anybody has access top the pay rankings and can confirm. I would also be curious to know just their top 12 overall. I also saw Luck go in the 2nd round of a (start 1QB) dynasty startup draft the other day. Too much love now?

It is a very dificult question to answer and one of the most fun parts of dynasty. Considering AP, if there was no injury, you should probably have his value in relation to other top RBs the same way you have Brady's value in relation to other top QBs. Which is to say if you discount proven top players for age then you should discount AP. Some discount a player like Brady significantly, some not at all. The injury is a different question and I don't see how anyone can know the correct answer. Some players recover with no loss of their flexibility and power, others lose some. AP is certainly a roll of the dice and I decided he was worth that roll in the early 3rd round. If he comes back strong by the end of this year I see no reason his redraft value should not be back in the 1st round next year. I do think guys are taking him too early in redraft right now in the early second but who knows on that. If you assume full recovery, the discount really comes down the age factor and you must decide that for yourself, there is no formula. I have a little bit of dynasty experience having been through a few drafts now and I don't think there is a right or wrong approach neccesarily but I would advise that an owner make their approach fairly consistent so that the overall roster has the same window of opportunity. Some guys will naturally end up drafting future studs and some current studs, everybody will want the players in both categories (Calvin, Arod, etc.) but at some point those guys run out. What I mean is that if you are going to be going for Brady or AP you should also be going for a discounted Steve Smith, Fred Jackson, etc. not with every pick but to a greater extent than others do. You don't want your whole team to get old at once but if your early round players are older take the discount that comes with taking an older player who produces now in the midrounds as well. If you don't generally have the same window for your team you insure you squad will be mediocre perenially IMHO.

From the NFL.com article just posted which quotes an appearance on NFL fantasy live". "Ryan Mathews is trying to be optimistic, telling anyone who will listen of his plans to be back on the field in time for the San Diego Chargers regular season opener against the Oakland Raiders. Orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neil Ghodadra doesn't share that optimism. "It takes six weeks for the bone to heal even after you fix it with the clavicle plate and screws," Ghodadra told Jason Smith on NFL Fantasy LIVE. "The bone still has to heal so you are looking at six weeks for that at minimum. Studies have shown 8.8 weeks is how long it takes for NFL players to get back from clavicle fractures." That would push Mathews' return to some time in October. Admittedly, without directly examining Mathews on a frequent basis, it's hard to make an exact diagnosis. so far, Adrian Peterson's rehab from a torn ACL has been faster than what we're used to seeing with other players suffering a similar injury. But he has also yet to see live game action and is being handled extremely carefully in practice. There's also the issue of Mathews trying to recover from a broken bone versus a surgically repaired ligament." Then there is this tweeted a bit ago by Brammel. "Wrote earlier this wk that 6-8 wks more likely than 4-6 (miss 2-4 gms) http://bramelsecondopinion.com/2012/08/10/ryan-mathews-out-4-6-weeks-with-broken-clavicle/ … but 8+ weeks not overly conservative estimate" So if Mathews were to miss 4 games would anyone have confidence he comes back in football shape and what would his current value be in redraft if this was the most likely case (I'm not saying it is, frankly I have no clue).

The above referenced would have him out longer than 2 games. The question I have, and I'm actually serious about this. Does anybody have an idea about how to do a calculation on the value of a player who would be "expected" to be a top 10 RB option for 65% of the season including the fantasy playoffs other than gut feel. I mean, what would that be worth? A guy who misses 3-4 games then comes back and is a RB2 for 2 games and then is a RB1 for the rest of the year and the playoffs?