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Everything posted by lesjroza

  1. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    BUY this years 1st round dynasty picks at current startup ADP prices SELL, even really good current NFL players from your roster, at ADP, to get the rookie picks Sorry I can't/won't be more player/s specific, but this is a relative value trade. I think it will be a big winner because the value is skewed by 50-ish percent overall IMHO. Example: in a similar thread a couple of years ago somebody posed the question of whether they should trade : David Johnson for 1.01 + Joe Mixon with the 1.01 being likely Saquon Barkely but prior to having any idea where he would be drafted. I argued that unless somebody truly did not like Barkley as a prospect, they really had to make that deal and tried to support the argument with the math involved as I saw it. I liked Barkley as a prospect a lot............. but the crux of the argument was the value of the trade presented such a large margin for error over the medium to longer term that turning it down just didn't make sense. I see the current dynasty rookie ADP similarly skewed. I WON'T tell you which rooks I favor for competitive reasons I CAN'T tell you............. pre-combine/pre-FA/pre NFL landing spot, which particular rooks are the very best values, or which picks you will need to acquire them. I AM telling you I think the OVERALL relative pricing of the class based on dynasty startup ADP is simply out of whack with where it should be. I kind of favor picks 1.04-1.09 at current prices, but at this point in the year this thesis is best employed by obtaining a number of picks rather than just 1 or 2. I will likely wait in most leagues to target specific values post NFL Draft, but I did begin in Superflex league where it was possible, and I now own 8 of the top 15 picks. Selling really good players for a claim on guys who have done nothing and haven't even landed yet, is not for the faint of heart but in 2022 the top 3 rounds of dynasty startups will be littered, if not dominated, with guys from this years class.
  2. lesjroza

    I refuse to call it “The Ship”.

    For my youngest daughters generation, ship is now a common term to denote a love interest between 2 individuals, as in relationship. When that generation gets old enough to become FF regulars, it's going to become confusing communicating amongst one another this time of year. "In a ship", will have multiple common meanings..........not to mention the possibility one could be on a Christmas cruise or on a ferry to an island. Given the short character nature of texts and most other communication now these days, the lack of additional context to help discern meaning of a term being communicated with multiple uses is a conundrum and likely to lead to many a catastrophe.
  3. lesjroza

    2020 Keepers on your wire?

    Not sure he's on a ton of WW but could be on some, esp if Zeke owner dropped him this week to fill a starting slot for a guy like Boone, Perriman, Watson, or Ward. Tony Pollard has looked fantastic whenever called upon and plays for a team with a strong OL and a commitment to the run. Zeke has been known to live it up in the off-season and doesn't have any room for error with the league. Also, injuries do happen in OTAs and camp. Outside shot at a huge jump in value
  4. lesjroza

    Zeke Signed!!!

    Game script could be the wildcard. Its not unreasonable to think Dallas could blow out the Giants in which case I'm not sure there would be reason to risk Zeke beyond half-time. I have pretty much Zero certainty on usage in my mind.
  5. lesjroza

    Elliott or Kamara number 2 overall

    Probably can't go wrong taking either IMO. Elliott should do it the old fashioned way with bankable volume and he is still young and proven he can handle it. Kamara should do it the new fashioned way with explosive plays in an explosive offense. Pick your poison. I do agree with FBN above that Elliott should be in for more TDs regardless and even beyond if Dak actually does take a step forward, and he and Cooper have had a whole off-season to get on the same page, it could really help Zeke. I'm not saying the Cowboys are going to suddenly be lighting it up and playing fast but if the offense is just a little less vanilla and the passing game is any kind of threat ...............it gives Elliott a little wider gaps and sustains drives to the goal line more often in which case there could be some sneaky value hidden in greater Elliott efficiency that ends up making him the clear overall RB1 this year beyond the volume. So my lean would be Zeke. NFL players seem to always have potential for suspension so no guarantees but Zeke is in the clear now on every incident we know about at this point and would have to screw up again I believe to receive further punishment.
  6. lesjroza

    Average Auction Value Question

    I think it would be smart to provide some general guidance about values non-specific to individual players. Distribute a couple of good articles on auction planning - prep non-specific to players. Make sure everybody knows in general players worthy 1st round picks go for a range of 25-30% of a teams budget, 2nd round picks 15-25%, etc, etc.
  7. lesjroza

    Zeke, might hold out........

    .........if he doesn't get a long term extension and the 'Boys prefer to sign Cooper and Dak instead. Makes for an interesting risk factor in early drafts Like it says in the link, all speculation but it does feel like a realistic possibility to me https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/2089/ezekiel-elliott
  8. lesjroza

    Zeke, might hold out........

    This is and the teams stated objective of prioritizing Dak and Cooper is where my concern about Zeke this season originates. Zeke dropped to 1.08 in a draft I began the day the video of the shove was released and I felt like I had to pull the trigger there but I've been more concerned about the contract situation than the other stuff. Dallas says we are committed to Dak, he's our guy. After negotiating a bit..... Dak is our guy but he needs to understand in order to win there has to be enough $$$ to go around. Dallas says Amari Cooper's contract demands are shockingly high (as an aside, wouldn't they have checked in with the agent prior to completing a trade, cuz perhaps that's a reason the Raiders want to bank a 1st?) Dallas says Zeke and us are on the same page about a contract. Zeke says he has not received an offer.
  9. lesjroza

    Ju Ju after AB trade?

    Just my opinion but I think the answer is somewhere in between and how '19 Juju compares to '18 Juju will be very dependent upon how the Steelers decide to approach formations which I don't know, maybe someone else has clarity. Juju had over half of his snaps in the slot where he excelled. Will the Steelers move him to flanker to replace Brown's spot in most alignments? If they do, he will be facing an opponents top corner most of the time and he will find it much more difficult to get open than he has inside. If Ds also give him Antonio treatment by shading other coverage I'm pretty high conviction he will have a tough time because he isn't that level of route runner, so there's shot he will be considered a bust by those who draft him high this year. If the Steelers continue to give him most of his snaps out of the slot I suspect those who draft him will do fine but it will happen on more targets with less efficiency without Antonio to draw extra attention. The matchups are better inside and its tough to double cover but I could see teams shading coverage especially at crunch.
  10. Lost 1 from original group but also accepting backups for other owners until all are paid Jets team available ................ drafts from slot 16 in a 3RR draft, so nice position 16,17 + first pick in round 3 $70 annual, $35 deposit Leaguesafe due immeditely 22 roster slots, all rooks available in startup, next year taxi slots added for rooks straight from draft only un- promoted are eligible for up to 3 yrs Groupme for chat Cool league, cool dudes Rest of info available under Rules and Scoring tabs on league site Email the commish Matt matthudson12@gmail.com https://www57.myfantasyleague.com/2019/home/38055#0
  11. I think what you are asking comes down to how the different FF sites end up listing these guys and I'm not sure how/when and if it changes BUT here is your guy to keep an eye on. Interestingly, another Jalen....................Mr Hurd Played RB in the SEC at Ten and actually had a very nice line in his So year 277 att 1285 yds 12 TDS 22 rec 190 yds 2 Yds Transferred to Baylor and switched to WR with a solid line his SR yr 69 rec 946 yds 4 TDs 48 ru att 209 yds 3 TDs and now the 49ers say they see him eventually as a TE ..............he will meet with the WR group for now but I think he may have a dark horse chance of getting some shorty ydg/ GL carries IMHO at some point given the RB group they have https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/teams/sf/san-francisco-49ers JALEN HURDWR, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan suggested third-round WR Jalen Hurd could eventually move to tight end. A former running back who played ahead of Alvin Kamara at Tennessee, Hurd offers immediate versatility as a runner, but it sounds like the 49ers view him as a potential option at tight end down the road. "We plan on him coming in and being a receiver and working with that group ... but I don’t think that’s where it stops," Shanahan said. "We’ll see how his body ends up being here over the years and while he does it, I also hope we can give him a few carries here and there." Shanahan mentioned Niles Paul, who he coached in Washington, as a player who transitioned from a big wide receiver to a tight end. Hurd, who is 6-foot-5 and played near 250 pounds when he was a running back, could follow the same path. watch how he gets listed I guess
  12. lesjroza

    ++ Update: Tyreek in trouble - No Suspension ++

    NFL sure had "lucky" timing to dilute the Tyreek news with all the hoopla surrounding the draft P.F.T. with an article positing the Chiefs should not cut Hill............out of respect for the safety of his girlfriend What a world https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/28/chiefs-nfl-likely-to-take-action-on-tyreek-hill-this-week/
  13. lesjroza

    ++ Update: Tyreek in trouble - No Suspension ++

    Reading between the lines I suspect it is playing out this way with neither adult talking. Interesting though, in this case can they ever get the kid back if Child Services can't determine who did it and whether the child is safe even with one who didn't? What about the kids she is pregnant with, would they also now be in the sights of CPS? Suspect absent a release we are back to the waiting game for an NFL investigation to complete which will likely take a long time to determine if Hill will be punished under the conduct code
  14. lesjroza

    Need help: Most competitive league settings?

    Not sure exactly what you mean by "competitive" and "best", maybe elaborate. If you want a league that anybody can win regardless of acumen-experience keep the team count down, the rosters shallow, and lineups small. Like an 8 or 10 team league with 14-16 roster slots and lineups such as QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/K/D. Also keep the scoring simple and weighted to TDs. This will insure anybody can hit the WW at any point in the week, even last minute, and scoop a start-able player. By keeping the starting lineup smaller and scoring geared to fluky TDs, even big K or D weeks can easily overcome an opponents stronger lineup. This type of league will be very competitive in the sense that anybody who tries can win, all skill and experience levels will compete. lots of luck in play here. If you want competitive differentiation, make everything larger 16 -32 team league, 24-30 roster slots. Larger starting lineups like maybe QB/RB/WR/TE/Flex/Flex/Flex/Flex. A team can start 1 RB or 5 for instance. Make the scoring such that RB/WR/TE are relatively equal based on previous years stats which will add to the tactical draft, roster, and start decision between RB/WR/TE. Lose the head to head and go with a victory points or all play schedule which will also take some luck out of the equation. This type of league needs a group of very competitive players because those who are just a little bit slow will quickly get left behind, and it will be near impossible to catch up. There is going to be differentiation, but it likely will not be competitive from top to bottom.
  15. lesjroza

    Gronk.....peace out!

    Who knows maybe he comes back mid-season if he is between movie shoots and wins you the league lol
  16. lesjroza

    Gronk.....peace out!

    Elite NFL player, FF star, and real life interesting guy Aloha
  17. lesjroza

    ++ Update: Tyreek in trouble - No Suspension ++

    https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article228014084.html KC Star calling for Hill to be cut if he was was violent The thing is there is likely NO video (and on the small chance there is, an even smaller chance it will be seen) of this incident, as far as we know just a 3yr old and 2 adults with vested interests. In several of the recent cases involving domestic violence accusations of NFL players the victim has recanted prior to a court case, possibly as the ramifications become clear. Suspect the same happens here eventually. The mom of the 3yr old is reportedly pregnant and likely relies on Hill for financial support so what hurts Hill hurts the rest of her family, conceivably. I'm a bit skeptical Hill gets what is coming to him, if in fact any punishment is even deserved in this case. It almost seems like its just a matter of time though until he is caught being who he has been previously.
  18. lesjroza

    Why is Carlos Hyde bouncing around so much?

    You guys could be right............. but weights also tend to bounce and guys who aren't naturally thick can lose 10-15 pounds over the course of the playing season, especially at the RB position. Players also target areas (such as weight) at the point of measurement they feel they deviate from the "prototypical" NFL version for their position in a way to diminish doubts (because $$$$ y'all) and it can further cloud a true read. Rumors are, we saw a version of this with Kyler Murray this year who supposedly gained weight, for the combine but then did not run the 40 at the combine because the weight would have hurt his time. Now its possible he will lose the weight, not weigh in at his pro day but run the 40. Williams looks more slight to me visually and significantly lighter than a player like Hyde. Regardless of his weight he has never gone through a full season of bell cow touches though he has been in the league awhile. Optical illusion for me alone? Possibly, but to me a 15 lb difference between Hyde and Williams looks about right. Anyway..................I don't want to belabor the point such that it appears in my mind Hyde is a better option because he weighs more. I am not saying that and have already said I think currently Damien Williams would be the better bet........... but on relative cost I'd take Hyde for the shot he outperforms expectations with a bigger than expected role FWIW if you type Damien Williams to Google search on the summary right side of the page here is a copy and paste of what comes up listing him at 212. According to my "optical illusion" I would say there is a 15 lb-ish difference between Williams and Hyde. His current Wiki page lists him at 221 which would close half of the gap of my impression but 212 would close the gap entirely. Damien Williams Football running back Description Born: April 3, 1992 (age 26 years), San Diego, CA Height: 5′ 11″ Weight: 212 lbs Current team: Kansas City Chiefs (#26 / Running back) Date joined: 2014 (Miami Dolphins) Education: The University of Oklahoma (2012–2013), Mira Mesa High School, Arizona Western College Stats Year Team ATT YDS AVG TD REC 2018 Chiefs 50 256 5.1 4 23 2017 Dolphins 46 181 3.9 0 20 Career 183 733 4.0 7 108 People also search for View 15+ more
  19. lesjroza

    Why is Carlos Hyde bouncing around so much?

    I thought he ran well in SF and in Clev as well............ when there were something approaching lanes. Hyde was the starting RB at a point where defenses could load up on the run vs Clev and by the time the passing game was threat enough the youngster was the beneficiary instead with Hyde gone. I wouldn't read too much into lack of production in Jax on his 3rd playbook in a short time with new teammates to run behind in a team dumpster fire situation. Damien Williams is on the smaller side and even if he is able to handle a significant workload over the course of a season without breaking down I suspect KC will want to conserve touches until the playoffs. Hyde could potentially get every 3rd or 4th series to begin the season, possibly GL, and most likely close out the game duties. Definition of late draft risk-reward depth pick this year, especially in best ball IMO until we get more info. Edit: Also while I still think Williams would be the RB to own at this point, the guys who have a level of certainty he will post stud numbers are funny IMO. I got a chuckle out of this Twitter post " More Hyde to KC is AMAZING for Damien Williams. Also, my girlfriend rented our guest bedroom to her ex-boyfriend, Diesel. They broke up after he joined the Marines. He does stunts for the movies now. Stuff with motorcycles. And he owns a gym. I can't wait to meet him. I'm so happy."
  20. lesjroza

    Antonio Brown says goodbye to Steelers fans

    To put a bow on the OP's title. "Antonio Brown says goodbye to Steelers fans" While AB may have said his final goodbye to Pittsburgh in a clean break for him, his ghost and memory will live on for Steelers organization and fans.................in the form of the cap hit.
  21. lesjroza

    Who you Buying and who you selling?

    Ralphster, you silly rascal you!
  22. lesjroza

    Who you Buying and who you selling?

    I'm not the looking back through posts type. We all get some right and some wrong. Kudos to you if you were on the right side of DJ and I believe you but I was referring to your quoted comment. It was only an "easy choice" in retrospect. The fact that DJ was 1.03 in the average draft makes it clear that his underperformance of previous years was far less than "easy" to envision. Just out of curiosity WP, since you have a high degree of confidence Gurley will be worth that top choice, I'm assuming you must have clarity on why he wasn't on the field regularly toward the end of the year? (And presumably that it will not carry over?) I do a fair amount of research but I still do not have what I'd consider clarity so I would appreciate if you could relay a clear and accurate picture. It could help clear up one of my risk factors anyway.
  23. lesjroza

    Who you Buying and who you selling?

    Bolded IMO is an accurate assessment, but of the best case scenario................which is to say I think Gurley's high end projection without consideration of other risk factors is below, or at very best in line, with the capital spent to acquire him. He is not going to win leagues this year at his ADP, the best those who choose him with a top pick can hope for he can return top 6 RB value, but the thing is the risk factors are significant and higher probability than is recognized so deserve a significant discount of his high end projection.
  24. lesjroza

    Who you Buying and who you selling?

    Bolded above = Fake news / Revisionist history IMHO. David Johnson had a full off-season ADP of 1.03 last year in MFL drafts http://www03.myfantasyleague.com/2018/adp?COUNT=32&POS=*&ROOKIES=0&INJURED=0&CUTOFF=5&FRANCHISES=-1&IS_PPR=-1&IS_KEEPER=0&IS_MOCK=-1&TIME=1514782800 In fact, he was probably the single most touted "buy low" on the boards here even AFTER the first quarter of the season and it was clear the Cards O would just not support the kind of season people were expecting. More on the Gurley analysis though when I have time.
  25. lesjroza

    Steelers-Bell-Transition tag

    Bell a Steeler in 2019? http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25910214/steelers-considering-using-transition-tag-leveon-bell The Pittsburgh Steelers are still considering using their transition tag on Le'Veon Bell, which would give them the right to match any offer sheet the free-agent-to-be signs with any other team, a league source told ESPN. The prospect of using the transition tag on the star running back creates an interesting situation, considering the fact that receiver Antonio Brown is likely to be traded, while Bell could possibly be back in Pittsburgh for 2019. Pittsburgh's decision depends on how much another team would value Bell and whether the Steelers would be willing to match the offer sheet.There also is a battle brewing between the NFL and and NFL Players Association over the value of what the transition tag would be on Bell if the Steelers did use it. Bell and the NFLPA will argue that the transition tag is close to $14.5 million based on the escalating value of tags, and the Steelers and the NFL will say it's closer to $9.5 million because Bell sat out this past season. No player has ever been in a situation like this. If the league wins the ruling, it will add even more leverage to teams using franchise and transition tags. If the NFLPA wins, it will give players more rights if they decide to skip seasons when tagged. Bell, who turns 27 later this month, skipped the entire 2018 season after declining to sign his franchise tender, leaving $14.5 million on the table.