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Everything posted by lesjroza

  1. lesjroza

    Axe Elf Breaks the Seal

    I don't disagree, as I say though, for that owner now its about managing the season. Season sits on a 3 legged stool......................draft, trades, ww.
  2. lesjroza

    Axe Elf Breaks the Seal

    I agree that you have nice team balance and a fairly high certainty of making the playoffs. While its an entirely different strategy, I actually also like the studs and duds team you mention, if the goal is to win the league rather than make the playoffs. Mcaffrey and Barkley can win him some weeks alone in a 20 tm league. Boyd/ Deebo could be a killer strong tandem on top for a 20 tm league......... if Deebos health cooperates. TE might actually be sneaky OK/league avg with Irv Smith and Logan Thomas. League avg QB, not that he needs either to TE or QB to even be avg. Harris has a touch of momentum to him, who knows what happens there, for that owner its about managing, but his studs cover up some holes and make the ceiling awfully high.
  3. Controversial? Baby Mama Lives matter! Not a political or race based comment, so don't start I had a few words with him when getting his autograph after his rookie year. I thought he was a nice kid. I was wrong.
  4. lesjroza

    Pick Keepers based on COVID?

    You haven't mentioned exactly how the values are calculated (Is the draft position value this years FF ADP, or where you took in a previous draft, how/if draft position inflates over time, etc) but I think I'd be hard pressed not to try and keep Hunt at what appears to be his percentage of the cap. If he is an off-field problem again you lose, but otherwise there are too many ways to win. He should have weekly flex value this year so solid RB depth. He would have high RB1 value with Chubb injury this year (or Corona IR). He seems likely to get another shot elsewhere at a RB1 job next year. Price makes him an awfully attractive asset IMO, if nothing else could see him getting you that league winning trade deal at the deadline to a team looking to next year. The Browns may even be thinking the same way at the deadline this year. My thinking is mostly risk/reward based on the price so I could be missing something based on how the values work.
  5. lesjroza

    Antonio tweets he's done

    Seen a few smart guys advocate taking him in drafts for the upside risk/reward....... but I wonder how much they can stomach after the latest post. It could be a contract ploy aimed at a team he was close with, but if so, and this continued behavior isn't the final warning flag then I guess any team that signs him will get exactly what they deserve. AB @AB84 · 53m at this point the risk is greater than the reward thank you everyone who been part of this journey i sincerely thank you for everything! life goes on 84! https://twitter.com/AB84
  6. lesjroza

    Covid IR spots for your league?

    Especially for the commissioners here but anyone can comment. I'm curious why not make Covid IR spots unlimited? While keeping regular IR slots the same as usual? It appears the NFL is doing so in a attempt to make sure NFL teams are able to field a team for each game. (14 Marlins players tested positive for instance) This season is going to be chaotic in any case................ but for FF why not approach it the same as the NFL and make sure owners can field a full starting lineup?
  7. Encrypted enemy communications? I would make sure the women and children are safely at home tonight
  8. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    I'm of the same mind as tanatastic. I think in Funchess they saw something the rest of their WR corp could not provide.............a really big bodied blocker on the perimeter. I wish I was joking, but I am not. He'll get the occasional red zone action and may have a FF worthy game here or there, but they want to run an offense that just grinds the D down play after play and Funchess can contribute to the physical assault at the second level.
  9. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    You may have some pangs of regret early this season but I believe this will work out fine for you over the next 2-3 yrs. Who are you thinking at 1.04?
  10. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    I 100% concur on your earlier take of Williams being a great value-risk/reward in redraft for this season. The only thing I'd add to the dynasty take is at least part of the reason PW was a UDFA was off-field concern by NFL teams. When the price is right, as it is in redraft this year, the potential for an off-field blow up doesn't impact the analysis heavily but in dynasty its something to think about when being weighed against a couple of other talented players.
  11. lesjroza

    Question for Dynasty League players.

    If I can see a path to immediate playing time for "my guy" I will just take him (plodder in front, etc) too early. If its a guy I like who seems bit in the depth chart weeds I'll trade out, most times for an appropriate future pick, then see if I can work something out in the same draft when a more realistic ADP rolls if he is still on the board. That's a change from the way I did things when I started. Trading for the pick tends to work out pretty well because its a liquid form of capital which doesn't use a roster slot deviating from the plan and worst case scenario I use it to get another "my guy" in the next draft. Sometimes I get burned of course when the player I thought was buried has a sudden opportunity, but more often than not there is a chance to get the guy later even cheaper or at least a better value than taking him well above ADP. The worst is when I make that call and the guy picking right after me then picks my crush because I know even if its awhile before the player does anything, the owner spent so much capital on him I'm just not going to get the opportunity.................. but its rare. Most times I have been able to come out with better capital with this method. It's been formulated over many years and many leagues. It works for me.
  12. lesjroza

    Jags shopping Fournette?

    The Seahawks had some organizational success back in the day trading for a beast of a man with an attitude who had underperformed expectations until that point. The Seahawks have a foundational philosophy built on hammering opponents with the run game The Seahawks have question marks next to both of their primary hammers coming off injuries Neither of the injured RBs fit in the quite the way Fournette would anyway Just sayin'
  13. lesjroza

    Houston Working Out Trade for Brandin Cooks

    Probably at least gives back a glimmer of hope for Watson if anything IMO. I own him in a dynasty league and I was feeling like that cupboard was looking pretty barren. At least there may be a can or 2 now...........they are dented and have the potential for botulism, but there is some hope he may at least survive through the winter.
  14. lesjroza

    March Mock Draft Teams: Rate, Discuss

    I guess if I was going to place a bet on one it would be team six but TBH there isn't a team that stands out to me so I guess that means compliments to all. Good drafting kept things pretty even.
  15. lesjroza

    Broncos add Melvin Gordon

    I'm not sure if athletes that turn down the $$$ and say they are "betting on themselves" fully understand there are variables that go way beyond themselves................but however you look at it Mr. Gordon lost his bet.
  16. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    Thanks for the kind comments Kopy! I'm going to decline to comment on individual rooks this year until all of my dynasty drafts have completed. The leagues I remain in are only the most competitive and handicapping myself by league mates knowing my thoughts and player specific intent pre-rookie draft, I am no longer willing to afford. My posts have my name on them literally, and right or wrong, I have never been anything other than honest when posting which others in my leagues know. I'll chime in when I feel doing so wouldn't be shooting myself in the foot. To sum up my thinking on prospect quality/quantity relative to annual crops, the Terri Hatcher-Seinfeld quote comes to mind, "They're real, and they're spectacular!". I don't want to be missing out on that.........
  17. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    Dynasty Rookie post combine ADP appears to be shaking out in a way that really favors the 1.04-1.09 thesis IMO. In fact, I would now add trading out of a higher rookie pick to target these mid-round picks assuming one could get anything near the historic value addition by doing it. The landscape will get shaken once again post NFL draft and then as certain pundits weigh in throughout the next months........... but there is usually not as much as post combine (even though there should be as landing spot is highly important) unless a guy lands in a situation that is abhorrent. Sell 1.01, 1.02 to BUY 1.04-1.07.................................... assuming obtainment of value equivalent-ish to startup ADP suggesting should be there
  18. lesjroza

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    BUY this years 1st round dynasty picks at current startup ADP prices SELL, even really good current NFL players from your roster, at ADP, to get the rookie picks Sorry I can't/won't be more player/s specific, but this is a relative value trade. I think it will be a big winner because the value is skewed by 50-ish percent overall IMHO. Example: in a similar thread a couple of years ago somebody posed the question of whether they should trade : David Johnson for 1.01 + Joe Mixon with the 1.01 being likely Saquon Barkely but prior to having any idea where he would be drafted. I argued that unless somebody truly did not like Barkley as a prospect, they really had to make that deal and tried to support the argument with the math involved as I saw it. I liked Barkley as a prospect a lot............. but the crux of the argument was the value of the trade presented such a large margin for error over the medium to longer term that turning it down just didn't make sense. I see the current dynasty rookie ADP similarly skewed. I WON'T tell you which rooks I favor for competitive reasons I CAN'T tell you............. pre-combine/pre-FA/pre NFL landing spot, which particular rooks are the very best values, or which picks you will need to acquire them. I AM telling you I think the OVERALL relative pricing of the class based on dynasty startup ADP is simply out of whack with where it should be. I kind of favor picks 1.04-1.09 at current prices, but at this point in the year this thesis is best employed by obtaining a number of picks rather than just 1 or 2. I will likely wait in most leagues to target specific values post NFL Draft, but I did begin in Superflex league where it was possible, and I now own 8 of the top 15 picks. Selling really good players for a claim on guys who have done nothing and haven't even landed yet, is not for the faint of heart but in 2022 the top 3 rounds of dynasty startups will be littered, if not dominated, with guys from this years class.
  19. lesjroza

    I refuse to call it “The Ship”.

    For my youngest daughters generation, ship is now a common term to denote a love interest between 2 individuals, as in relationship. When that generation gets old enough to become FF regulars, it's going to become confusing communicating amongst one another this time of year. "In a ship", will have multiple common meanings..........not to mention the possibility one could be on a Christmas cruise or on a ferry to an island. Given the short character nature of texts and most other communication now these days, the lack of additional context to help discern meaning of a term being communicated with multiple uses is a conundrum and likely to lead to many a catastrophe.
  20. lesjroza

    2020 Keepers on your wire?

    Not sure he's on a ton of WW but could be on some, esp if Zeke owner dropped him this week to fill a starting slot for a guy like Boone, Perriman, Watson, or Ward. Tony Pollard has looked fantastic whenever called upon and plays for a team with a strong OL and a commitment to the run. Zeke has been known to live it up in the off-season and doesn't have any room for error with the league. Also, injuries do happen in OTAs and camp. Outside shot at a huge jump in value
  21. lesjroza

    Zeke Signed!!!

    Game script could be the wildcard. Its not unreasonable to think Dallas could blow out the Giants in which case I'm not sure there would be reason to risk Zeke beyond half-time. I have pretty much Zero certainty on usage in my mind.
  22. lesjroza

    Elliott or Kamara number 2 overall

    Probably can't go wrong taking either IMO. Elliott should do it the old fashioned way with bankable volume and he is still young and proven he can handle it. Kamara should do it the new fashioned way with explosive plays in an explosive offense. Pick your poison. I do agree with FBN above that Elliott should be in for more TDs regardless and even beyond if Dak actually does take a step forward, and he and Cooper have had a whole off-season to get on the same page, it could really help Zeke. I'm not saying the Cowboys are going to suddenly be lighting it up and playing fast but if the offense is just a little less vanilla and the passing game is any kind of threat ...............it gives Elliott a little wider gaps and sustains drives to the goal line more often in which case there could be some sneaky value hidden in greater Elliott efficiency that ends up making him the clear overall RB1 this year beyond the volume. So my lean would be Zeke. NFL players seem to always have potential for suspension so no guarantees but Zeke is in the clear now on every incident we know about at this point and would have to screw up again I believe to receive further punishment.
  23. lesjroza

    Average Auction Value Question

    I think it would be smart to provide some general guidance about values non-specific to individual players. Distribute a couple of good articles on auction planning - prep non-specific to players. Make sure everybody knows in general players worthy 1st round picks go for a range of 25-30% of a teams budget, 2nd round picks 15-25%, etc, etc.
  24. lesjroza

    Zeke, might hold out........

    .........if he doesn't get a long term extension and the 'Boys prefer to sign Cooper and Dak instead. Makes for an interesting risk factor in early drafts Like it says in the link, all speculation but it does feel like a realistic possibility to me https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/2089/ezekiel-elliott
  25. lesjroza

    Zeke, might hold out........

    This is and the teams stated objective of prioritizing Dak and Cooper is where my concern about Zeke this season originates. Zeke dropped to 1.08 in a draft I began the day the video of the shove was released and I felt like I had to pull the trigger there but I've been more concerned about the contract situation than the other stuff. Dallas says we are committed to Dak, he's our guy. After negotiating a bit..... Dak is our guy but he needs to understand in order to win there has to be enough $$$ to go around. Dallas says Amari Cooper's contract demands are shockingly high (as an aside, wouldn't they have checked in with the agent prior to completing a trade, cuz perhaps that's a reason the Raiders want to bank a 1st?) Dallas says Zeke and us are on the same page about a contract. Zeke says he has not received an offer.