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Ray_T

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Everything posted by Ray_T

  1. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    I agree. It is possible that DJ didnt work in AZ last year because the new coach wasnt able to maximize his talents. that may be due to the line that was beyond terrible, or it may be coaching. From what I can see hes going into a far better situation and will face a lot more positive game scripts. I think hes gonna have a good year.
  2. Ray_T

    Mahomes signs 10 yr extension

    ok that's fair on the rush attempts per game angle. Maybe the better stat is how many hits they take per game. Of course, thats a stat I dont know if we could track down. Cam Newton looks like hes probably done, but hes an extreme case. Took a LOT of hits. played behind a terrible line and his running ability bailed out the line on numerous occasions, but he still took way too many hits and now his body is breaking down. a lot of the QBs on your list actually got injured a fair bit. Vick, Griffen, McNabb, Steve Young had a long career, but he was often injured. he had a 3 year stretch where he was healthy, but otherwise missed games every year. Winston has missed a fair number of games too but I wouldnt go so far as to call him injury prone. McNabb also missed a fair amount of time due to injury and had a long career, but I truly think he was done by the time he was 30. after that he was never the same. McNair wasnt too bad, but seemed to get dinged up. lots of seasons where he missed at least 1 or 2 games but he did have a long career. now that I look at this in more detail, maybe we need to look at what the baseline is for QB's. it would be interesting to see games missed for running/scrambling QB's vs drop back passers. I'd like to know the stats on that.
  3. Ray_T

    Mahomes signs 10 yr extension

    yes, but the career for running QB's tends to be a fair bit shorter than that of a drop back passer. That would be due to the extra hits they take. That being said, you are correct. careers are getting to be longer. maybe that trend will continue.
  4. Ray_T

    Mahomes signs 10 yr extension

    well, hes making a hell of a lot of cash. perhaps more than any person has right to earn. I do hope hes worth it for KC
  5. Ray_T

    DJAX: Twitter 101

    dude is 3 years removed from his last 1000 yard season and hasnt been able to stay healthy of late. hes walking on thin ice even without the stupid Hitler quotes. Geez, what a moron.
  6. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    That would be the low end of his range of values. I wont finalize my rankings until I have some training camp reports. I'm going on the assumption that he earns the #2 WR job in Green Bay. That scenario may not actually happen. so his value is likely all over the place and will vary by league.
  7. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    i think he will do better than he has of late. may even have the best season of his career this year (proviiding he and Rodgers stay healthy) I still think his max upside is that of a top end WR2. I'd say draft as a WR3 and hope for the WR2 production.
  8. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    I'd agree with this. also, productive WR's have been dumped and not replaced with anybody. Adams is more or less all that is left. Lazard has maybe more potential than I initially thought. he put up some numbers, but I think its a case of nobody was left to throw to, so he got all the reps he could handle. Funchess is ok but hes not spectacular either. Granted, hes now playing with a better QB than hes ever seen, so maybe there's some upside there. Rodgers is good enough to possibly elevate both players (if hes still got 'it') we shall see. injury risk with Rodgers is starting to rise with his age too. at 36, you dont want him taking too many hits. same player. just added risk in many forms.
  9. Ray_T

    Draft Position #9 Strategy

    all I was saying is dont take him in the first. in PPR he ranks better than standard leagues I suspect, but like I said earlier.... if thinking about a TE, the place to draft him is just before comparable WR's start coming off the board. as a TE hes worth a bit more than a WR with similar stats because you are filling the TE position instead of the WR spot. where you hit this point largely depends on the rules and scoring in your league. In ppr you probably draft him earlier than you do in standard leagues because he does catch a lot of balls although I'd have to run the numbers to confirm this and I'll admit, I dont have the time to do this right now, but I'm sure someone here will do it.
  10. Ray_T

    Draft Position #9 Strategy

    this. the advantage of picking late is that nearly everyone else has shown their hand by the time you have drafted. many drafting this late dont realize how big an advantage this can be. when drafting this late, you let the draft come to you. Dont chase any specific strategy because too many things can go screwy by the time you pick. This is where mocks can help you because people will try stupid stuff in a mock and if you want to test your strategy against the unexpected, a mock can sometimes be helpful. That being said.... as for the TE thing.... you should not be even considering a TE in round 1. My guess is in most formats... round 3 is good. maybe late in round 2 for PPR. my general theory on the TE posiition..... if you are looking at WR's and the best ones on the board have slightly better stats than the top TE, that is the point where you should switch and go with a TE in lieu of a WR. if you can get most of the production of the top WR on the board with a TE that TE is more valuable because of the position you are filling. in my experience, that usually happens in round 3. some years it happens late in round 2, occasionally round 4, but most times its in the latter half of the third round. Take a TE earlier than that, you are overpaying. plain and simple. but picking at 9, you likely have 5 RBs that should be off the board and 3 WR's. the odd time the top QB will come off the board, but that's not a regular thing. usually one of the top 5 RB's or one of the top 3 WR's gets passed over by someone and drops to you at this slot. Usually that is your pick. sometimes people go off the board and multiple players that should be gone are available. this is another case where you should mock it, or at least have a good ranking list that you truly believe in. Many draft mistakes actually happen when 2 or 3 people go completely off the board and throw everyone else off their game. if you are lucky enough to see this happen, take your best guy at 9 and expect to get another good player after the turn. and do NOT under any circumstances extend a long run on a position. if you are up at 9 and 8 RB's are off the board, you take your best WR and look at getting a RB with round 2 or 3. at that point the dropoff in points wont be huge if you pass and wait a round. ditto if 6 WR's are off the board. it is almost guaranteed that if you are coming in at the end of a position run that you have probably made your first mistake. (unless 8 RB's are off the board and Zeke or McCaffrey are somehow still on the board.....) either way, this is another case of making a good list you believe in and sticking to your list. best of luck to you. and NO TE's in round 1. trust me, you can wait on this.
  11. Ray_T

    Zeke is low-key faded....

    Totally true. all Zeke needs to be is football smart. Apparently he has those kind of smarts in spades. so long as his off the field stupidity does not get him suspended hes good to have on your team. This is probably the reason he will never be a number 1 overall pick in the NFL. Risk of getting suspended due to off field stupidity is too high. But I'd still want him on my fantasy team regardless of this.
  12. Ray_T

    Zeke is low-key faded....

    I think we all know or have met someone like that. Book smart isnt the same as real life smart.
  13. Ray_T

    Chase Daniel's Paycheck

    I think if it ever happens, this will be the year. all the pieces are in place.
  14. Ray_T

    Cam Newton signs with Patriots

    I like they way you said this. I think hes a high priced insurance policy. possible starter. Belechek has high standards. to start, he would need to learn that playbook inside out and backwards and learn it quickly. his new coach does not have patience for someone who doesnt do this. so Cam will need to work his arse off. I've not heard anything posiitive or negative about Cam's work ethic, but it will be tested here. after that, what happens largely depends on his health. if he has recovered to a point where he can still run with the football, he can still be effective. I think it more likely he becomes more of a tradiitional drop back passer. Hes got a good O line. from that perspective, this is one of the best places for him to land if this is his new normal. This is one of those situations where you want to monitor how things go through camp. Right now I would say this is a crapshoot.
  15. Ray_T

    Chase Daniel's Paycheck

    I wouldnt call hiim the most durable. early in his career he was labelled injury prone. but I agree, hes been good of late other than the most recent injury of course.
  16. Ray_T

    Dalvin Cook threatening a holdout

    I will agree, he has spent too much of his career injured. As such, despite his talent, most teams will be hesitant to give a long term deal to a player with his health record. Minny should play him this year.... then franchise him to get one more season out of him, and then let him walk the followiing year. if he puts together two healthy years in a row, you may consider signing him for longer term to keep. but i suspect his career gets cut short due to injury
  17. Ray_T

    Stupid Fatasy Moves I Did Last Year

    I'd never suggest this. part of the fun of the draft is having a beer or two with your friends. That being said, if it is a serpentine draft, you can hold off on the heavy drinking until after round 5 or 6. at that point if you make a dumb pick, you wont be the only one and it wont ruin your team. if it is an auction, you need to be more alert start to finish. but that's no big deal either. have a beer or two. just dont go overboard until most of your team is put together. if you are drunk before the draft or auction begins, thats a recipe for disaster more often than not. but if you make a good list and stick to it, you can overcome a lot of the potential losses due to the drink. This requires a lot of research and preparation ahead of time, but it can be done. for me, its mostly about minimizing the damage the booze will do to your draft result. if you are prepared to take the necessary steps. its not that hard. like I said... if you are sober at the start of the draft, and pace yourself to a reasonable level most of your draft should be reasonable. if you blow a couple picks in the last 2 or 3 rounds its not a draft killer. all things in moderation. have a beer or two if you enjoy it. dont completely abstain. You do wanna have some fun
  18. Ray_T

    Cam Newton signs with Patriots

    key words.... if healthy. Lis Franc injury is tough to come back from. I think from here on out Newton is a drop back passer. i dont think he will be able to play the game he played before because I just dont think the running ability will be there. but I do think he has enough skills to be a solid drop back passer. but I do think this will be an adjustment for him.
  19. there is a large proportion of seniors in Florida. For that reason they should be taking extra precautions. from what I understand those over 60 years of age are high risk for Covid. I do hope people are sensible enough to listen to what the experts are saying and wear a mask and do the social distancing thing
  20. Ray_T

    Any Chance That The NFL Completely Sinks?

    honestly, demand will drop. some will stay home for fear of catching covid. but lots will still want to go to the games. for priices to go up all you need is for the supply to drop by more than the demand. if they reduce the stadium capacity to 1/3 or 1/2 that of normal then for prices to remain the same, the demand will need to drop by the same amount. i honestly dont see that happening. with no movies, no other sports no concerts for months, the first sporting events will have such robust demand I think it will be unreal.
  21. Ray_T

    Any Chance That The NFL Completely Sinks?

    you are dreaming. if they need to limit attendance due to covid, the prices will go way up.
  22. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    you forgot to include Miami. but it is worth notiing that both New York and Washington will be better teams than they were last year as well. Washington got Chase Young who I believe will be a difference maker for that Defense from day one. New York signed some free agent corners and drafted a safety and a corner. that secondary will be a whole lot quicker than they were. they also loaded up on Offensive Tackles. I think Barkley will have more room to run, and Danny dimes wiil have more time to throw. this will mean less stalled drives and the defense will spend less time on the field. this will (indirectly) help the defense too. for me, that's 4 matchups that will be tougher than what they had last year. the rest of the schedule is not tough, but it is a bit tougher than last year. so I dont see a huge dropoff in stats for Dak, but definitely a dropoff. I figure he drops from top 3 to top 6 or 7. all I'm saying is dont pay top 3 value for him.
  23. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    honestly, Id sell Dak Prescott. Lots of publications have him as the third best fantasy QB and I truly dont think hes that good. He feasted on some terrible teams with terrible defenses last year. he has a fairly soft schedule this year too, but I dont think he will have the same kind of season he had last year (which I think will be the best statistical year of his career) Hes a top 10 QB but not top 3. Sell while the value is high.
  24. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    nice catch. I do think hes got a ton of potentiial. in a dynasty league, hes a grab and stash. coming off ACL surgery there is the chance he wont get there until next season so hes not as good a guy to grab in a redraft. he is a big bodied guy, so maybe he doesn't need the same burst/speed to be productive that a smaller WR would need. problem with ACL injuries, usually the straight line speed comes back quickly. but the ability to change direction or make a cut takes longer to return to form. I'd hold off until I see him in camp. if the camp reports are positive, I'd grab him late in the draft. if not, I'd watch hiim closely early and grab him if he shows signs of productivity.
  25. Ray_T

    All year long Buy/Sell thread

    in 12 games he got 367 yards. projected over a 16 game schedule hes over 500 yards. for a rookie TE this is fantastic. rookies usually dont make much of an impact until year two or three. hes ahead of the curve there. also have you watched him play? he passes the eye test for sure. remember his starting QB got hurt week 8 so he had a lot going against him and still put up decent numbers. with a healthy Stafford, he will be a top 10 TE this year without a doubt.
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