[David Johnson]

3 hours ago, Ray_T said:

ok I dont understand your logic here.

if hes the 5th ranked player in PPR, that places him at the end of the first round in most leagues.    7th ranked generally would go early to mid 2nd round pick.    This is because top ranked players in other positions go in round 1.  

Generally the first 6 picks in round 1 of any draft are game breakers.   the kind of player that can and does win games for you by themselves by getting in excess of 20 fantasy points.   you expect them to do  it 4 or 5 times a year usually and to have consistent output to the level that they perform well even if they dont act as a gamebreaker in that week.

Last year, DJ was consistently solid, but for the most part lacked the game breaking ability he has shown in the past.   I personally think the talent is still there, but playing on a crappy team with a terrible line means the holes just dont open up like they need to for him to go out and dominate a game for you week in and week out.

Thats the difference between a top 5 overall pick and a 2nd round pick.   and a late first or early second round pick is what DJ is.   I have him in one of my leagues.   Hes a RB1 but not an elite one. (not this year anyways)

yes he is an elite talent, but talent does not always translate to fantasy points.  especially when you are a RB playing on a crappy team with a terrible O line.

I think as this team improves, he will be that player again, but he cannot be working with negative game scripts as often as he has and the line has to be better than awful for this to happen as well.

 

Well if I pick a player 5th and all the consensus picks before him were all RBs and he performs as 5th best player at that position, I'm good with that.

It's been awhile since been in a snake draft or ppr league, but I'm not understanding somethings on your end...

What 11 players would/should have been drafted before DJ this year in ppr?

What 17 players would/should have been drafted before DJ this year in standard? (I mean really b/c he was 2 spots lower than 5th, that drops him down half a round?)

That could be crux of us not understanding each other's thinking.

 

[David Johnson]

2 hours ago, weepaws said:

Wow The Qb was awful, but Edmonds showing today that he just might be the best play maker on team, even without the Qb producing. 

If im a DJ and I’m not, thank you Jesus, I would be very worried. 

 

I am a DJ owner and I'd say concerned, not worried.  Remember this was the Giants: ranked 28th overall on def, 25th v run, 32nd rush tds, 30th overall tds.  In a game where it was iffy DJ to play, looks like Edmonds got off to great start and they just let DJ rest.  

Course that's me as a DJ owner talking, we'll see how it plays out, but I think the extra rest w/him not having to do much this week will do him well and won't necessarily see a full blow RBBC moving forward.  

I do also own Edmonds so may even be better to have DJ sit extended time till he recovers.

[Last chance to grab Aaron jones.]

1 hour ago, Canadianfan said:

Another very goodday by Aaron.  Keep on marching!

Definitely,16touches/50rushyds/33recyds/1td

Solid #2 RB numbers.

 

 

[David Johnson]

7 hours ago, Ray_T said:

I cannot agree with that.

If you are picking him top 5 overall, you are expecting him to be top 2 or top 3 at his position.

I’m actually not. In early rounds, particularly first (or higher dollar players in auction) I’m looking to   meet draft position (or dollar amount) value wise. That’s it. Typically trying to be safer in early rounds w/who I draft holding to adage ‘you can’t win your league in first/early round/s, but you can lose it.’

Then as draft progresses then looking more for players to exceed draft position value. 

Course if my player at overall pick #11 performs more like a #5 pick I’m stoked.  But it’s not my aim.

Sounds like it’s yours so yes, agree to disagree.

[Last chance to grab Aaron jones.]

6 minutes ago, jrokh said:

The stats say when Jamaal Williams is playing, Jones...is more like a low-end # 2 RB...

This is the key for me right here.

Jones #4 standard, #5 ppr...that's with getting majority of carries 4 of 6 games  to get those respective rankings though.

With what looks to be a more balanced RBBC Pack backfield moving forward, as season progresses  Jones will likely settle in to more of a mid or so #2 RB

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

9 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

I saw McCoy is at 5.4 ypc, so maybe he’s been doing alright?

I was surprised it was 5, felt like less. 

Mccoy's ypc is great,  Darrell 's good at 4.0, Damien's awful at 1.7.

None of it matters though if you don't actually run the ball.  I posted about this before yesterdays' game v Den.

They did run  more rest of Den game, think that really needs to continue to have any type of success.

Pass plays v called running plays, so excluding scrambles by Mahomes

42/19

35/10

39/13

It's not that they weren't in those games throughout and  had to just throw it  either (actually ironically the 42/19 v Detroit was the most lopsided game)

As good as the kid is he can't do it himself and not using your running game can't help him either.

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

And though I joked earlier, Moore's throw was a dime and then Hill made most of it in stride.

I'd just want to see Moore have more such throws over several games with teams game-planning for him before I'm ready to say 'this offense will be just fine.

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

33 minutes ago, stonewall said:

One factor that I haven't heard discussed is the fact that a Mahomie-led KC offense was struggling mightily to run the ball...

 

5 hours ago, NAn said:

Aside from all that have u seen the running numbers even with Mahomes?  Their just not doing it and when they are not being very successful...

But seriously,  will be interesting to see what Reid does.  Yes he can be innovative on offense, but (1) haven't seen that so much recent games, (2) schemes/play calling can only be as good as the execution, where with OL has just not been consistent.  Imagine he'd commit to run more, but don't know if that means any one of the RBs will really benefit.  Or if will be succesful as some of us have alluded to how teams may scheme for run and force Moore to beat them.  

Either way, though some of these players may be ok,  for next few weeks just plugging and playing a Chief skilled player b/c he's a Chief skilled player I don''t see as automatically translating to solid production.

[Anybody reading the Miam RB Tea Leaves?]

Laces out Dan! Laces OUT!!! 

We’re talking Dolphins right?

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

9 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

 

Jeez, how many 50+ yard TDs does Moore have to hit Hill with per game before it becomes a real threat?

TWO.

Then I’ll officially be on the Matt Moore bandwagon!

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

5 minutes ago, AxeElf said:

Didn't that happen already?

 

One time is consistently?

[Patrick Mahomes - Dislocated Kneecap]

27 minutes ago, Phil Simms 11 said:

Defenses can’t key on McCoy with Hill and Kelce roaming around 

Only if Moore can consistently show he can get them the ball. Teams could scheme to stop run until he shows he can do so.  
Aside from all that have u seen the running numbers even with Mahomes?  Their just not doing it and when they are not being very successful.  Be interesting to see what Reid does.

[David Johnson]

7 hours ago, cavern said:

yeah.  right now - understanding he's nicked up and easily could start regressing - he's returning even the #5 value....anyone that is frustrated at this point is someone who thought they were getting the #1ish pick but at 5.

i think it's pretty strange that, at this exact point in time, players are frustrated with their DJ pick.  i'm merely concerned with his being nicked up.  but have SOME confidence he will play through it and play through it well... but how many weeks can this happen?  is he the julio jones of rb's?  or will he go down.... which would bring the weepaws back in to about a crazy high adp, that i agree, NOW, was there, but i didn't agree with.  im putting him back out there and expecting him to play well through injury unless there is a credible report saying dont

Hope I'm not jinxing him but aside from the injury year, he's played 54 of 54 games including all 6 this year.  Players in NFL get nicked up, show up on injury report,  start a game and get hurt...not ideal, but just nature of the game. Now admittedly I have Edmonds, so semi-covered,  but bottom line is DJs playing, he's productive.  I'll ride him out till that changes.

[David Johnson]

4 hours ago, weepaws said:

Yeah your right about that no question, and it was more of just tossing that out there type of thing more then using it as a point. 

It was cheap, sorry. 

No worries bro.

[David Johnson]

16 hours ago, Ray_T said:

and anyone who bought into the hype is likely paying the price.

This is what I don't get.  

You mean paying the right price?

B/c again he's currently 5th in ppr, 7th in standard.

So he's getting value at or near a top5 pick.

Meanwhile highly touted players like Hopkins, Kamara, Saquon, Hopkins, Davante are not meeting anywhere near their preseason value.

[David Johnson]

13 hours ago, weepaws said:

 

So I wonder where he would be in total points if those others where not having those injury problems. 

 

 

Due respect but that's neither here or there. Bottom line is production.  Injuries happen, part of game.  Can wonder all you want, but that doesn't mean you can discount actual production.

[David Johnson]

15 hours ago, weepaws said:

Depends on ones rankings right. 

I had the Chubb in my top five rb rankings. 

But your missing the point, way back in June or even July D J lovers where screaming how he is worthy of a top five over all draft pick in ff football. 

I say no, how about you?  

 

okay that's where I thought your thinking was...

I admit per preseason I did not consider him a top 5 pick.  Again auction wise I got him for about a 10-12, but honestly had his price approached top5 (so jsut a few dollars less than the top4 RBs) I likely would not have grabbed him as I did want to get value from him.  Looking even at last year where he finished 10th in my league (thereabouts), if he finished at that be fine, but felt he had great upside to be a top 5-7.  

But in hindsight, even for those who did draft him that high, he currently is performing near there and I could see him finishing top5 (Even Ekeler and Ingram ahead of him falling a bit already).

So, just not sure who should be complaining about him now.

[David Johnson]

1 hour ago, weepaws said:

What about the other top Rbs? 

 

3 hours ago, NAn said:

 

...outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

3 of the top 4 preseason RBs are not performing as top4 RBs...so are they not worthy of top5 picks?

[David Johnson]

7 hours ago, weepaws said:

No hate, no reason to hate a ff player, it’s not real, it’s fantasy. 

But hes diffently not worthy of a top five draft pick. 

It's just an expression wee, it's all fantasy.

Just talking here, b/c it is all fantasy, but then what about the other top RBs...

2 hours ago, Frozenbeernuts said:

So only the top 4 are rb1s? 

Not even them as outside of CMC ...Kamara 13th, Elliot 8th, Saquon 35th

So are they not worthy of top5 pick?

[David Johnson]

Just don't get the hate on DJ.  Actually I do, as sounds like  many expected to get top5 numbers from him from day 1.  I personally had (and got him auction price wise)  for about a 10th-12th pick so my expectations were tempered.

But even for those who picked him as top5, thru week 6 in non-ppr (imagine he'd be ranked even higher in ppr):

Ranked 7th, FF scoring, literally 2pts from 5th

9th total yds

2nd in rec ycs

5th in recs

And the offense is just starting to click. He's running more routes than ever as a WR. As teams worry/game plan more for Murray's running threat we'll open things up for him more.

Think he's on his way to a solid year.

Currently mid RB1 with high RB1 upside.

[Cooks going forward]

Frankly I'd be concerned with any Ram not named Kupp.

Passing rank yds/tds

'19, 6th (but b/c playing from behind so much)/22nd

'18, 14th/5th

Rushing rank yds/tds

'19, 22nd/22nd

'18, 8th/3rd

Going to get garbage yds passing but otherwise this offense is a shadow of what it was last year (said Captain Obvious). Just pluggin' and playin' a Ram b/c he's a Ram days are over.

[Aaron Jones - starting job was fun while it lasted...]

3 hours ago, oldtimer said:

Historically, the HC has been a RBBC guy.  Remember last year in TN?  He didn't want Henry getting more than half the carries until the final games of the season when Henry blew up.  LaFleur has stated more than once he wants his RB's "fresh" during the games.  Well, most RB's will tell you they need to get in a groove and they can only do that with more carries.  As long as both are healthy, I think it will continue to be a split. 

Here's the previous thread I posted on this, including the article where Lafleur talks about getting more touches to Williams...

 

[Aaron Jones - starting job was fun while it lasted...]

Week3

Jones 10carries/1tgt/1rec, Williams 12carries/2tgts/2recs

Weeks 4 and 5

Jones so-so game/went nuts, Williams missed most of game injured/did not play

Week6

Jones 11carries/7tgts/4recs, Williams 14carries/5tgts/4recs

Considering Lafleur's history of running ball in his offenses, Pack being 5-1 and looking to extend season for playoffs, Jones injury history wouldn't say Jones lost his starting gig, but could be looking at a full RBBC

[What's up with Damien Williams today?]

Past 2  games since Damien back, small sample size but still, here are passes v called running plays (so excluding Mahomes scrambles)

V Houston

35 passes/10 called running plays (so excluding Mahomes scrambles), Mccoy most w/8 carries

Pass target share: Daryl 2, Mccoy 2, Damien 1

V Indy

39 passes/13 called running plays (so excluding Mahomes scrambles), Damien most w/9 carries

Pass target share: Damien 4, Mccoy 2, Daryl 0

Despite Reid's history looks like (1) Chiefs just  not running the ball, relying on (mistakenly IMO) on Mahomes arm (2) full blown RBBC anyway

 

[Winston has proven to be a bust.]

39 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

I don't understand the comment.  They look nothing alike.  Leftwich only threw more than 10 Interceptions once, his rookie season.  He was overly cautious with the ball was usually getting grief from commentators for not throwing deep, or throwing it away.  That's the polar opposite of Winston.  Byron's third year in the league was not bad.  Keep in mind he played for a team that was much worse than Tampa is today.  The 2005 Jaguars were lousy.  He had 15 TD's against only 5 Interceptions.  That doesn't look like Winston at all.  Then he was injured and never came close to playing a full season again.  Winston has had years of 15, 18, 11, 14, and already 10 Interceptions this year.  Byron never turned out to be "good" due to injury.  Winston is just an idiot. 

Actually I think it was 2003 when they were bad, but I'm with you that Leftwich was nothing like Winston.  From 2003-2005 aside from everything you cite, Del Rio was the coach and they had Fred Taylor.  So it was about play D, ball control on offense handing it off to Taylor 20 times a game.  So Leftwich asked to basically be a game manager and take care of the ball. That suited his style anyway unlike Winston slinging it all over the field w/reckless abandon.