sharkie22

If Jacksonville's offense (David Garrard and O-line) can get it together I like their defense best of the four listed. That may be a big "if" though. The Jags have a more favorable schedule than the rest as well. All four defensive units suffer with offenses that have had trouble to some degree staying on the field which doesn't bode well for your points against and total yardage values. I see all four as basically situational at best. Seattle may prove to be OK too once the receiving corps returns and gets in sync.

Not to disparage your plan since you never know, but, it seems to me your looking at using picks earlier for your QB, defense and TE than what (I'm assuming) the value will be to you when you draft them. If you were to go Tomlinson/ WR/ QB then your RB2 wouldn't come until the 40th pick and RB3 until the 60th? I can see maybe taking the QB if your league is scoring friendly to TD's or bonus on yardage but adding the defense and TE where you're projecting with little or no depth at WR and RB strikes me as an unwarranted risk. But, like I said at the beginning... you never know. Good luck.

The area where PPR has much of it's impact in drafting is generally more pronounced at the point when owners must decide whether to go after their RB 3 or a second WR and even some TE's. A big part of where a receivers value grows in comparison to many backs will have to do with your leagues starting line up requirements. Leagues that use a flex player or require three WR's tend to raise the value of those receivers who are more possession oriented. Guys who consistently catch four to five balls each week for decent but not great yards and not a lot of TD's become safer bets for 10 - 15 points (HP scoring) which puts them on par with some of the second tier backs with poor match ups. In my experience, PPR regarding WR's pays the biggest dividends in the middle rounds where many owners may tend to take an extra back or two for depth and let some points get away by missing a receiver they may need due to match up concerns later in the season. Owners who prefer to stock up on backs for trade value, etc. in non PPR leagues tend to over value those same backs in PPR.

I think part of the reason he's slipped so far is caused by the tendency many have to undervalue reliably decent production, albeit unspectacular, for the unproven (and sometimes imagined) upside of a newer player to the league. I think the Pros and Cons listed are pretty much right on the mark. The one big concern I see for Lewis has more to do with the Browns defense than it does with anything Lewis brings to the table. Jamaal benefitted from the leagues best defense which allowed him to get the carries once Baltimore made the adjustment in their play calling and got him the ball. Not only can't the Cleveland defense attack their opponents offense and generate turnovers, they can't stop the run. As badly as they'll need to run with Lewis to protect their QB, whoever it is, I have a hard time imagining Jamaal getting those 20-25 touches on a consistent basis and the fact he doesn't catch the ball out of the backfield doesn't help much either. Personally, I don't see him as better than a RB 3 or flex player in non PPR. Regarding BLAH... all but one of those backs listed catches passes and the one back left over really only had one strong season.

Not too big on making reaches as I prefer the advantage of drafting players who slip too far instead. I'll take the other alternative and question the three current reaches being considered. Bush at 1.6: No doubt he's got the talent (ppr leagues) to pay off at that slot but I question taking the risk. Deuce is another year removed from surgery and still looks to be the main ball carrier for the Saints, particularly in the red zone so Bush will most likely not get the touches generally associated with the production of a top six pick. As good as the offense was last season I still think there is some question at WR as to whether Colston will be able to duplicate the success he enjoyed last year (he's definitely got the leagues attention from the start this year). I'm not saying Bush won't be worth it but I do wonder if there isn't a more proven player offering less risk to use for that early of a pick? MJD at 2.7: Best case scenario is Taylor gets hurt and the job is Jones-Drews', or at least banged up enough to limit his touches so that the balance favors MJD. Worst case scenario is Taylor stays relatively healthy the entire season... ok ok, most of the season and keeps MJD around the 15 touch mark week after week. The risk again, in my opinion, is too great for a second round pick. Should MJD wind up with similar touches and similar results from last year then I think we'd be looking at the next great back. One season in the league makes it hard to count on that. AP at 3.6: I was one of those who argued against Joseph Addai last year due the presence of Rhodes and proved to be completely off base. While Addai proved to be the far more talented back overall, and Peterson will too, the difference in this situation is the lack of a passing attack in Minny. No doubt Addai benefitted greatly from defenses having to account for the Colts passing game but the Vikes won't have that luxury. Barring injury to Chester Taylor I don't see Peterson getting the touches on a consistent basis to justify the pick.

I guess whether or not moving Heap to get Witten (and I assume more than just Witten) comes down to how much faith one has in the Ravens offensive line and McGahees ability to grind the tough yards. Starting from week eight of last year and comparing both TE's stats, I was a little surprised to see they both posted almost identical totals. Witten caught 44 balls on 59 targets for 520ish yards while Heap caught 46 on 66 looks for 530 yards. Heap had two TD's and Witten had one. If it were me, I'd likely keep Heap since Witten will have to share with Barber (12 red zone TD's from week 8 on) and Owens (4 red zone TD's to go along with having the leagues sixth highest number of red zone targets over the same period). However, if McGahee and Baltimores line can get the job done it might not be all that crazy a trade to make. Jamaal Lewis' eight TD's over the second half of last season cut into Heaps TD production as much as Owens and a successful red zone running attack have taken from Witten. The one thing that can be counted on is Owens will still get his opportunities and Barbers versatility and ability to pound the ball into the end zone will count against Witten while at least Heap has the chance the Ravens will struggle in the red zone enough to make him a factor.

B.A.C. - approximately .38

All (in unison): 'Hello Nan.' Thanks for sharing... Seems to me, as with most dependencies, the real issue at hand isn't so much the need for an artificial feeling of genius as much as it is the unmanageability in the lives of those who lack the ability to think through the circumstances leading up to their decisions and then believing it will somehow be different this time. In Barlows case it was unreasonable to expect his value to pan out (even if he truly was as good as many believed) due to the lack of supporting cast around him at receiver, O-line and a pourous defense. Arrington was an even more desperate attempt considering he was a rookie when the over hype occurred. I think Maroney and to a lesser degree, Jones-Drew, are less extreme as reaches than either Barlow or Arrington. All RB 2's come with question marks. Durability being a concern for Maroney, at least he has shown he has the talent to do the job and I can't imagine anyone would say he lacks the supporting cast. Jones-Drew as a second round selection is on the road to relapse but the traditional health concerns of those he's competing with in Jax and the ability he showed last season still make him a safer bet than Barlow in '04 and Arrington in '05. You make a good point about doing the homework to at least be aware of what is fair to expect from any of these players but I feel I should at least point out that not everyone who uses is an addict. At least not until they repeatedly demonstrate poor judgement without learning from it. I'm grateful there is a support group for reachaholics and reachaddicts. Thanks for letting me share.

Gotta mention Joe Namath way back when he did his one year of MNF. "Good pa-lay" "He's a good pa-layer..." Frickin' guy managed to get the word in every sentence. Brian Baldinger's a good call too. Sounds like he's doing WWF more than football. And lastly, Jim Hill doing sports news in LA was pretty bad. For a guy who played football he managed to have the blandest and most obvious commentary when doing highlights. Classics like "he throws the ball" followed by long silence and then "he catches the ball" followed by long silence and then either "he's tackled" or "he scores" were deep.

Pretty much similar numbers to what I've got him down for at this point. I think I've got a couple more TD's forecasted though.

1.) Peyton Manning. The only one who averages 4000+ and 30+ over the past four seasons. 2.) through 6.) Palmer, Brady, Brees, Kitna, Bulger in no particular order. Darkhorses to crack the top five are McNabb (two consecutive years of season ending injuries) and Trent Green (assuming he goes to Miami and Ronnie Brown is utilized more as a pass catcher).

I don't think Ginn was all that bad a pick for the Dolphins. I took the time to check out the guys highlights and simply saying he's fast is an understatement. He reaches full speed almost immediately and has very good quickness and reaction. He will definitely do damage if he gets the ball in the open field. At 5-11 and 180 as a junior he can stand to put on a few pounds (which I'm sure he will) but saying he's too small isn't quite right either. I'm sure Marvin Harrison and Steve Smith, among others, would not agree with that assessment. Miami filled a need for a top calibre return man as well as a receiver who will require help in coverage. He's got plenty to work on that's for sure, but if this guy does work out he has the skill set to help open up what has been a fairly poor offense. I think it was a risk worth taking.

Based on his three seasons in Miami, Welker is a very good niche receiver. He won't be the guy going deep and he won't do much for YAC, but he will be a very reliable possession receiver and keep the chains moving. I think "I Got Worms" posts are right on about this guy. Welker did lead all Dolphins receivers in reception percentage the past two seasons by a landslide. He gets open enough and he catches whats thrown to him. He also provides the experience to be useful now which may or may not make a case for what the Pats gave for him but if it does pay off in another Championship no one will care and if it doesn't, I doubt it will be due to Welkers performance. He'll hold up his end.

If Peterson is still undrafted when the Vikes go on the clock I would look for either the Texans at #10 or even the Bills at #12 to seriously consider making the trade to move into that spot for him. Minny does need to add at RB and since it looks like they'll need to protect their QB more than most teams would want to, Peterson would certainly be very helpful. I don't have Taylors salary figures handy but I have to wonder if the Vikings will want to invest as much for a duo of backs as it will cost them if they don't make a trade and can't pass on Peterson with their pick. This will be interesting if and when the time comes.

I doubt any of the teams listed can ultimately afford what a trade for LJ would cost them. If he did end up going to any one of the four then I would think Green Bay most likely offers the best opportunity for him at this point. I say this because I think having Favre along with a decent line and somewhat more solid defense than the others gives him the best shot at seeing fewer eight man fronts and less fourth quarter abandonement of the running game. I don't see any of this happening though.