Laidback

The tall theory is interesting but I think this connection may have more predictability.... Using the same 5 years the receiver's teams averaged 9.68 wins. 82% of the 10+ td receivers had at least 8 wins and 90% of those receivers had at least 7 wins. Looking at 2008 5 of the 6 played for teams with 7 or more wins with the lone exception being Calvin Johnson. Also if you look at some of the players that were either on the list once (the surprises) or on the list inconsistently it almost always matched the team record. 2007 reggie williams 11 wins 2006 Darrell Jackson 9 wins 2005 Smith 11 Chambers 9 Galloway 11 2004 Drew Bennett was the surprise but only 5 wins (he had an incredible FF playoff run though 2003 Holt 12 Chambers 10 Santana 5 Anyway, just a different angle on the same data.

Well, thanks to the alphabet Arizona has knocked 325 people out of this. The second worst team to back is Tennessee with 95 and none of them were default picks.

How about trying to trade down slightly? The you can have bush and not worry about getting him too early?

Whenever I see posts about the number of carries I always wonder why no one seems to consider post season and preseason carries. For example since 2002 LT has had 9 preseason carries to Alexander's 106. If you include postseason LT 26 SA 95 The career carries is now Alexander 1918 LT 1737 To further increase the wear and tear factor Alexander has averaged 11+ games on turf per year (8 home games, 2 preseason games, 1 at St.louis +random other domes) LT plays on grass at least 13 times per year (8 home games, 2 preseason games, all division road games) 8 of the 16 NFC stadiums are turf. 3 of the 16 AFC stadiums are turf. So I guess we should increase the wear and tear on most NFC backs, prennial playoff contenders and RB from the 11 turf stadiums. Wow this was a fun way to waste time at work! To answer your question in a keeper league I would probably go LT then Johnson with Alexander behind that simply because you should be able to get one or two more dominant seasons out of the first two.

The order depends so much on what teams already have in dynasty leagues especially after the first 5 or so picks. Do you require a TE? The order looks pretty good to me but I think I might move bell and jennings down a little. They are rookies that have the pontential to contribute immediately but I am not sure they are the best long term.