beanburrito

I have Colston in a Yahoo league where I can play him as a TE....so thats fair. I do not have him in a CBS league where he is a WR...so also fair. Fair = helps me Unfair = hurts me Jeez, not hard to figure out...

The Raiders WILL continue to suck this year but if they figure out that screens and checkdown passes to the RB are ways to avoid getting sacked when the entire defense is in your backfield then Jordan could be productive. I think the Raiders should go hire Dom Capers as he managed to limp along with that strategy for the last 3 years. So IF (and that it one big IF) the Raiders are able to make that adjustment then I see them sucking about 37% less and Jordan actually making an impact.

Sorry I disagree as even in your mind-boggling, drafted 12th and somehow got Ronnie Brown AND Steven Jackson (urge to comment almost uncontrollable), Chester out performed both your "starting" RB's. The Vikes played a very solid game and Chester is not razzle dazzle but fits the system well. I think we have seen the Viking game plan for the season...run it a lot and, as was pointed out ad nausuem by Theisman et al, those short 2,3 yard runs in the first quarter become 6,7 yard runs in the third and fourth quarters. They are going to keep people honest with a couple of screens and dump offs, use Wiggins across the middle and try to stretch the field with Williamson. Very conservative but if they can execute...it is pretty damn hard to defend. If Williamson can hold on to a couple of those long balls that team is going to have a pretty darn good offense as Johnson looked very sharp as well.

Never underestimate the system... Worst offsensive line ever, I might be understating that a little bit. Unfortunately the Shell & Co on the coaching staff deserve a quick square in the nuts for the unimaginative play calling. As was previously noted, where were the short 3 step drop pass plays, where were the screens (they had two to R. Moss which worked and none to LJ) where were the reverse attempts. Seriously, when the D is getting that kind of crazy rush EVERY DAMN TIME you need to try and pick some plays where they have to think twice about staying at home. I just looked at the play by play and LJ had one rush to the right end and the other 19 were either up the middle or off tackle....hmmm, now there's a creative strategy. Yes it was a horrible day for the LJ and the Raiders but the real quesiton is how do they react. The quesiton is not the oline (which sucks) or Brooks (who sucks) it is the coaches who couldnt figure out that their 7 step drop / run up the gut strategy just was not going to work and refused to adjust. I am not saying play calling alone can make up for that o-line but it makes the difference between a mediocre offense and a non-existent one. I mean even Houston managed to put together a couple of scoring drives a game with the worst o-line in the league the last few years and as I recall they had a pretty productive running back (hmm, screens and dumps go figure) I think it is a pretty safe bet to say the Raiders are not going to be a very good team this year but that doesnt mean Jordan is doomed IF they can adjust their play calling. IF they can figure that out I could see LJ consistently putting up DD like numbers, but I am definitely waiting until after the bye before I hope for that.

I dont have Ronnie Brown on my team but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night so... I would be if I had him for this week because he did just shy of nothing the 90% of the game and managed to get 2 TD's out of it. He was not "a beast" and there was serious luck in those 2 TD's (no call for pass interference against Miami setting up the huge Welker punt return to give the fish a 15 yard short field on the first TD and the already described no call for holding on the second TD). Here are some random thoughts about him: He looked VERY good both times around the endzone, I would be worried about the Dolphins getting close to the endzone as they had one decent drive the whole game. The first TD was also a bit of a trick play where he lined up at FB and they did a quick handoff to him so it made his running a bit easier (just pointing it out) so that razzle dazzle play is off the table for the next 16 games. The Miami oline did not impress. He catches the ball well (can somebody say PPR)...but Daunte is a mess (duh) Sammy Morris is suspended and they just got Lee Suggs a week ago so of course he got 99% of the playing time, there was nobody else. My take is fairly positive on that though b/c I dont really see those guys being big play makers, just in to give him a rest and as good as he looked at the endzone I dont think he is going to get pulled for either one of them. Caveat being if Suggs ever stays healthy he has talent. Summary: I think Ronnie's biggest problem is Daunte. If Daunte improves I think Brown could be a monster (esp in PPR leagues) otherwise I see him having average yardage totals. If CPep starts clicking Ronnie SHOULD catch 80 balls but of course this is Daunte so most likely it will be closer to 40. Of course it is very hard to extrapolate from a single data point but 60 total yards is not impressive and TD's are not something you can count on.

maybe if I had more helpful posts like this I could get some respect... no, I do not sit around and pontificate about the finer points of FF (um usually at least). I just happened to use the old draft data the other night and thought I might be able to find some interesting trends in how people draft, thats all...nothing more nothing less. I think spotting the people who get too wrapped up in filling out their roster and passing on some value depth might help me maximize my overall value. I was just doing my best to avoid real work...take it for what its worth. If you cant appreciate Sun Tzu, well I think that is more a comment on you than it is on me. I have been around on this board for a while and pretty much seen it all...just havent contributed to the noise level as much as others. So why dont you try keeping your banana in your pants and contribute to a conversation instead...ROOK.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. - Sun Tzu I have been reading a bunch of the "what strategy should I use" posts and there are couple of general responses: 1. RB/RB/WR/RB etc... 2. value/value/value etc... 3. Go punch somebody...in front of wife...children...etc. The first one indicates somebody who is trying to see where different player adp trends allow for maximum value. The second approach addresses the obvious problem with relying too much on a particular strategy and not being fluid enough to recognize opportunities. The third transcends all space and time and needs no explanation. We are constantly searching for new information to give us an edge and we normally focus that search on the players, but what about your "buddies" in the draft. Is there any information that you can glean about them to assist you. Can you figure out what their basic drafting strategies are and how best can you take advantage of them? The best way to illustrate this is by examples that I have started to pick up: A pretty simple one is: I generally am one of the last people to pickup a QB in a draft. If I have drafted with people before, I get a sense on when people start taking their backup QB's so I can maximize the number of picks before have to take one. There are usually a couple of QBs rated 9 - 14 that I think should be top 5 so I target them and try to snag them right before people start looking for backups. By knowing the people in the league I get a sense of who wants to fill out their roster before taking backups at different positions. I actually looked back at an old draft in one league and sure enough the way people drafted and their emphasis on different positions was pretty consistent. I was able to maximize my value picks at WR/RB knowing I was safe waiting on a filling out my QB spots. I have another draft coming up and have been doing my research which includes looking at last year's draft. I noticed a few interesting things. Even though the first round was a bit crazy by the end of the third round everybody had exactly 2 RB's. During rounds 4 and 5 however only 1 RB was taken and there was a huge WR run as people were trying to fill out that spot. Pretty much everybody in the league really wanted to fill out their starting team (minus K and DEF with a couple of exception) before drafting deep at the backup (since we start 2RB and 3WR that means lots of heavy WR rounds). Knowing that I can plan out a couple of strategies based on who is likely to fall to me at each round. Obviously it isnt set in stone but it cuts down the number of possabilities. Now that I have a better idea of where the trends might start I know when to pull the triggers on certain types of players and when I think they might slide back around to me. I know that nobody is going to snag 3 RB's in the first three rounds (a weakness on their part for sure and a gamble on mine that they dont change their behavior) but I know if I chose to go WR/WR pretty much exactly who my RBs would be. Or if I go RB/WR or RB/RB I know I dont have to pull the trigger on some of those mid round RBs in rounds 4 and 5 because everyone will be loading up on WR's and other non-RBs. So basically just reminding you that human nature is pretty consistent and people tend to fall into patterns. It isnt that you will be able to draft all the players you want but that little knowledge might mean acquiring a slightly better or maybe an extra player you might not have otherwise gotten... Anybody else have insights into understanding motivations / strategies and how to apply them either pre-draft or during the draft? Or was this just a complete waste of an hour, well I dont think it could be counted as a complete waste since I did manage to avoid getting work done...I think I'll go punch myself in the face now.