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kmbryant09

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Posts posted by kmbryant09

  1. Posted

    Amazing Peyton has won anything with head coaching like this.

     

    Next play after this time management gem by Caldwell, Jets complete a long pass for an easy game winning FG to eliminate Colts.

     

    Don't forget the 50 yard kick return allows by his special teams with under a minute to go in that game. Ya know, after Manning marched Jacob Tamme and Blair White down the field for what should have been a game-winning FG.

     

    Or when Vanderjagt shanked a FG against the Steelers.

     

    Or when his defense gave up a game-tying-TD at the end of the 4th quarter to the Chargers, only to see the Chargers win the toss in OT, and win the game without ever allowing Manning a chance to score.

     

    We all know Manning SUCKED in playoff games early in his career. But if you look at what he's done since ~2005, he's really been a very good playoff QB.

  2. Posted

    Brady is 9-4 against Manning, most recently beating him last year.

     

    Also, the game is in New England. That's important. Manning is 2-9 in his career at New England. I have to believe that's his worst record anywhere.

     

    Belichick has also given Manning fits in the past.

     

    Belichick hasn't given Manning fits in like 8 years:

    2012 - 337 yards 3 TD's / 0 INT

    2010 - 396 yards 4 TD's / 3 INT's

    2009 - 327 yards 4 TD's / 2 INT's

    2008 - 254 yards 2 TD's / 0 INT's

    2007 - 225 yards 2 TD's / 1 INT

    2006 - 675 yards 4 TD's / 2 INT's (2 games)

    2005 - 321 yards 3 TD's / 1 INT

     

    Average game - 317 yards 2.75 TD's / 1.1 INT's

  3. Posted

    Would you guys really start him over Kaep?

     

    I know HOU's defense is solid, so I would really temper passing expectations for Kaep, but Wilson ran all over Houston in the 4th quarter (77 yards in total - I'm guessing about 50 of them came in the 4th quarter). I'm willing to bet SF is taking note of that, and will probably try and let Kaep run a little more than he has through 4 weeks.

     

    So, Kaep or Eli?

  4. Posted

    Not sure if he qualifies, but Josh Gordon.

     

    In my dynasty leagues, I've also been trying to acquire Tavon Austin. I know the dude is small and all, but once the Rams actually start using him (and Austin gets up to speed with the NFL game), I think he'll be a perennial 80/1000/6+ with some rushing/returns sprinkled in. Dude can be electric in the right set of circumstances.

  5. Posted

     

    I don't know where you are getting this stat, but it's wrong, or you're misstating what you mean. Brady's defense has given up fourth quarter leads at least 6 times just in Superbowls; against the Rams, twice against the Panthers, twice more in the first Giants/Pats game, and again in the second G/P game.

    I believe the stat was in the final 5:00 of a game?

     

    I know both SB's against the Giants would qualify for the Pats - what about the Rams/Panthers games?

  6. Posted

    Peyton is certainly top 3, and I actually think he's the best QB of all-time. But when discussing Greatest-of-all-Time, one must look at the entire resume.

     

    Unfortunately for Manning, some things like playoff records and SB rings are on that resume, and that is what is (for the time being, at least) keeping Manning from claiming the top spot.

     

    But anyone who thinks Peyton isn't clutch is just downright lazy. You probably did nothing but look up Peyton's playoff record...Failing to recognize that his defense has given up 5 4th-quarter playoff leads - most in NFL history (2nd place only had it happen to them twice). Failing to recognize that his kicker has hurt him nearly as much as Vinatieri helped Brady. Failing to recognize that his playoff QB rating is actually higher than Brady's. I really don't mean to make this into a Brady vs. Manning - just pointing out that Brady is widely regarded as "clutch", while Manning isn't.

     

    I do think Peyton needs at least 1 more ring to equal or surpass Joe Montana. Until then, he's "just" the best regular-season QB the NFL has ever seen who also has a SB MVP to his name.

  8. Posted

    Anyone who takes a position other than QB is an idiot. I wouldn't let it change my basic strategy though. I'd still take my runners and wides first, then grab a QB, but I'd grab two in a row. You could end up with, say, Kaepernick and Ryan. That's the thing about QBs this year. The 7th and 8th guys are almost as likely to lead the league in fantasy points as the 1st and 2nd.

    The issue is, in a 2 QB league, you can't wait until the 5th or 6th round to grab your value QB.

     

    Kaep & Ryan will be (or at least should be in any decent league) 1st or 2nd round picks in a 2 QB league.

  11. Posted

    Doug Martin has 100+ total yards or 1+ TD in 11 of his 16 games - and he narrowly missed a 12th when he had 98 combined yards.

     

    Yeah, he had 1 monster game, but take that away and he still put up 1,600 total yards and 8 TD's (in 15 games).

     

    He may bust (injury, setback, sh!tty offense), but it won't be because he wasn't producing consistently last season.

  12. Posted

    Rice is still a stud. He's still the #1 RB for the Ravens, and will likely see another 300+ touches in 2013, barring injury.

    But any unbiased fan is crazy if they don't see the talent in Pierce. I had no horse in the race, but Bernard Pierce, AT TIMES, looked like the better running back in Baltimore. Maybe Rice was banged up. Maybe he wore down. Maybe the play-calling simply worked in Pierce's favor. But when Pierce was brought on the field, he looked EXPLOSIVE - moreso than Rice did at times. Now, Rice is still the complete back, and he does things better than Pierce that matter a lot in today's NFL - namely pass-catching and blocking.

    For now, Pierce is nothing but Ray Rice's handcuff with occasional FLEX appeal based on the matchups. But definitely monitor the situation - If Pierce starts seeing 10-12 touches a game, and starts out-performing Rice on a per-touch basis, then Pierce may force Baltimore's hand to re-address the RB pecking order as soon as 2014. More likely, IMO, is that happens in 2015.

  14. Posted

     

     

    I'm probably one of the few people that like Franklin better than Lacy.

    You aren't the only one in that camp.

     

    But doesn't it say/mean a lot that the Packers clearly like Lacy better than Franklin? I know we all like to pretend like we are scouts and GMs, but the GB staff has probably spent days upon days evaluating every little nuance of these 2 players. And they came away liking Lacy better than Franklin.

     

    I've gotta believe that Lacy has the very inside track at the starting RB in Green Bay.

  15. Posted

    Green is about to enter year 3, which is when WRs typically figure out what they are doing. Dude is a beast. I could argue he is worthy of a top 5 dynasty pick.

     

    Graham is great. But especially in a league in which they occupy the same lineup spot, Green is the guy.

    Green has clearly figured it out already, so I wouldn't be expecting a big jump in year 3.

     

    But i agree with you that Green is the better option.

  17. Posted

    If there is one thing I'm not worried about on the New England offense, its a lack of big name targets for Tom Brady. He is, has been, and always will be more than capable of putting up gaudy numbers without a top tier name at a skill position.

    He never put up ridiculous numbers until Moss + Welker and then Gronk + Hernandez came to town. I'm not suggesting that Brady is merely a product his weapons, but his fantasy production might be closer tied to his weapons.

     

    I would not want to be relying on Brady if/when Amendola and Gronk get hurt again. You really think Brady puts up 4500 + 35 if he's throwing to Slater/Jones/Ballard?

  18. Posted

    In any Redraft -- Foster and ADP are 1-2 ... still I would find it tough not to take T Rich at #3 overall as there is no other back you can just write down 1750+ total yards , 10+ TD's , 55+ receptions...

    Are you implying that Richardson fits this description? That's blasphemy...

     

    We've only seen him play 15 career games at an NFL level and he didn't even reach 2 of the 3 milestones you set out. He fell WELL below the 1750 yards (he had 1300 yards) and "only" had 51 receptions.

  19. Posted

    Amendola going to Pats raised his trade value tremendously. He has a LOT of talent, but he's also a huge risk. I traded him in dynasty while his value was at it's peak. Pre-season hype. Always a good time to trade players that recently switched teams!

    I'm curious what you got in return? I've got Amendola as my WR 3 in a start-up Dynasty League, but would love to trade him for something more reliable.

     

    Was hoping/shooting for M. Crabtree but the owner shot me down.

  20. Posted

    Or maybe it's just that Welker is getting old and has had a few critical drops the past couple seasons.

    Brady is getting old and has played like sh!t in a few critical games the past couple seasons. Are the Patriots dumping him?

     

    It boiled down to his drop of a routine catch for him at least at that time in the superbowl that would of likely sealed it -- followed up the next year with a AFC title game where he seemed to drop every important catch. IMO BB wanted him gone after that.

    We can disagree on the difficulty of the catch in the SB, but Welker had 1 drop in the 2012 AFCCG against the Ravens. I believe it would have converted a 3rd and 9 (for about 10 yards) in the 2nd quarter. Considering the Patriots lost by 15 points and didn't score a point in the 2nd half, and that Belichick was outcoached and Brady played like sh!t (62 rating) and I think you can probably cross Welker's drop off the list of reasons costing the Patriots a SB in 2012.

  21. Posted

    Denver Broncos (hey, I'm a Peyton Manning fan until he retires, then a Colts/Broncos fan!)

     

    Let me preface this by starting with my off-season Wish List. The team was about $18M under the cap, but that dropped to about $10M once they tagged Clady. I believe they created another ~$4 million by cutting a few players. I wanted a more dynamic slot-WR. I wanted CB & MLB depth. I wanted some DT signings (all of our rotation players from last year were FA's anyways), and some interior OL depth. Easier said than done with just ~$14 million in cap space (not accounting for $4M for the rookie class)

     

    Free Agent Signings:

    Wes Welker - One of the biggest acquisitions of the offseason. Denver now has, arguably, the best WR corp in the league. Last year, this offense was only slowed when teams took away the outside of the field (Decker/Thomas) and singled-up on Stokely/Tamme/Dreesen. As reliable as Stokley & the TE's were last year, they simply didn't create a lot of separation. Welker absolutely destroys 1-on-1 coverage in the middle of the field and will force defense to pick their poison (which Peyton attacks better than anyone).

     

    Louis Vasquez - The 2nd best available Guard, I was shocked when Denver signed him to an affordable contract ($23.5M over 4 years). This immediately bolsters the one weakness on the Broncos offense, and should pay major dividends in 2013 - both in short yardage situations and pass protection. Chris Kuper is likely gone, but Vasquez is a major upgrade.

     

    Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - He hasn't graded out well in the past 2 years, but what defender in Philadelphia has? He excels as a physical CB in press coverage - exactly what he'll be asked to do opposite Champ Bailey. With Bailey, DRC, Chris Harris (who graded out as a top10 CB last year) and Tony Carter, the Broncos have assembled one of the best groups of CB's in the league.

     

    Terrance Knighton - A big bodied DT that Jack Del Rio is plenty familiar with. JDR seems to get the most out of his DT's, and last year was the perfect example. Kevin Vickerson, Mitch Unrein, and Justin Bannan were the DT's in 2012, yet they were stout against the run. Knighton is more talented than all of them.

     

    Kevin Vickerson - Speaking of Big Vick, I was happy to see him re-sign after taking a pay-cut in 2012 and having a great year. He and Knighton should provide JDR the 700 lbs needed on a defense that is predicated on stopping the run with the front-7.

     

    Stewart Bradley - MLB depth. If he can come in and duplicate the little production we got out of Brooking last year, this will be a valuable signing. MLB is not as important in this defense, but it still is the biggest weakness in my opinion.

     

    Best of all - all of these Free Agents came fairly cheap and on team-friendly deals.

     

    Losing (potentially) Dumervil would be a shame, especially considering how the situation played out. But Robert Ayers played well in limited snaps and DT/DE Derek Wolfe really impressed as a rookie last year (6.5 sacks as a run-stuffing DE, mostly). Losing him wouldn't be a disaster, especially since the team would likely bring in Freeney or Abraham.

     

    This team is looking like they will lose 1 starter (Dumervil), while significantly upgrading 4 major areas - slot WR, OG, CB, and DT.

     

    A+ offseason rivaled only by the Seahawks (in my opinion).

  22. Posted

    MFM - Thanks for this work, always appreciate your input. Here are a few of my thoughts:

     

    -Glad to see you high on Colin Kaepernick. I'm about to participate in an auction style Dynasty start-up draft, my 1st Dynasty league, and he's my primary target. I've been talking him up on a few dynasty forums as a top3 Dynasty QB, and people have been laughing at the remarks. I really see him as a bigger RG3 and a better passing Cam Newton. He's only 25, and the sky is the limit. His floor, if healthy, seems to be in the 8-10 range.

     

    -I'm beginning to disagree about the middle ~8 or so QB's (Big Ben, Eli, Romo, Flacco, Dalton, Cutler, Schaub, Freeman). In your 10 and 12 team leagues, none of these guys are starters. And besides an occasional season from Eli & Romo, they aren't ever going to be top10 QB's. At this point in their career (except maybe Dalton, though I'm not high on him), we know who these guys are. They obviously provide a solid backup, but I think I'd rather roster a few of the younger players (Tannehill, Bradford) that at least are unknowns at this point, especially if I have a reliable #1. I don't really think Tannehill or Bradford will have better 2013 seasons than those middle-8 QB's that I listed, but I feel like they at least have a higher ceiling.

     

    -Care to elaborate why you aren't that high on Jamaal Charles & Lesean McCoy? Charles has already put up 2 great seasons in the last 3 years (the other season lost to torn ACL), and that was with a bimbo coaching staff that refused to use him properly. Andy Reid has a history of favoring a lead-back approach - and I think Charles is in line for ~350 touches the next few years. The McCoy ranking is interesting. I've seen him as the #1 dynasty RB, and as low as in the teens. I personally think he's a top5 talent at his position, he's only 25, and is the lead-back for Chip Kelly. I just can't fathom ranking him and Gore neck and neck. You could make the argument that Gore is every bit the fantasy option for 2013, but he's 5 years older and has a billion extra carries. No reason to rank him as high as McCoy in dynasty, especially in PPR.

     

    -Did you make this list a few weeks ago? Specifically, before Ahmad Bradshaw got released? Even if David Wilson is splitting carries with Andre Brown in 2013, I've gotta believe that he'll be the future RB in New York. We all know how talented/explosive he is, and he finally has a clear path to 15-20 touches/game. I'd rank him somewhere between 10-15.

     

    -I also feel like Reggie Wayne is a bit too high. He had a great 2012, but I don't see him repeating those numbers in 2013 with the emergence of Hilton/Allen/Fleener. And as we all know, he's probably only a year or two away from a significant decline in performance due to age. He's a good 1-year rental for a contender, but nothing else in my opinion.

  23. Posted

    3 QB's in the top 10?!?! :shocking: If that happens then the NFL has completely lost it's minds. NO QB is worthy of a top 10 (or top 20) pick, yet alone 3 of them. The 3 being selected may not even include the best QB in the draft, Tyler Wilson. I'd be very surprised if the draft plays out like this, but it's still pretty early.

    While I agree that this year's QB class seems relatively weak, I'll give you 6 reasons why I wouldn't be surprised to see them drafted this highly:

    1 - The NFL has become all about the QB. Moreso than any other time in NFL history, a team needs great QB play to win games consistently. It doesn't matter how strong your defense is, or how many playmakers you have, or how brilliant your coaching staff is if you aren't getting solid QB play.

     

    2 - The 3 teams in this mock draft that selected a QB all currently have embarrassingly bad QB situations. Matt Cassel sucks and he'll be cut. Brady Quinn obviously isn't the answer. Ryan Fitzpatrick put up decent fantasy #'s but sucks in real life, and he too will likely be cut. Kevin Kolb can't stay healthy, and hasn't proven to be an NFL starter, so he isn't the long term answer.

     

    3 - The 3 teams in this mock draft that selected a QB all have a solid team from a roster make-up. Buffalo may have the most work to do, but they have a promising defense to go along with C.J. Spiller and a great O-Line. Arizona could use 8 new offensive lineman, but they have Fitzgerald and a premiere defense. Kansas City was picked by many to compete with Denver in the AFC West. They have a ton of talent on defense, and if they retain Albet & Bowe, their offense will be talented (minus the QB position).

     

    4 - All 3 of these teams have new coaching staffs. Most of the time, new coaches taking over a rebuilding franchise will want to bring in "their guy". These coaches aren't tied to Cassel/Quinn/Kolb/Skelton/Fitzpatrick - so they are more likely to move in a new direction.

     

    5 - The free agent QB market is extremely thin. It's not everyday that Peyton Manning is a free agent. What QB can these teams pursue in free agency? Flacco? Vick? Alex Smith? Tim Tebow? Good luck selling your fan base on a free agent QB.

     

    6 - Recent success of rookie QB's. We all knew Andrew Luck would be great. We all suspected that Cam Newton and RG3 would be good. But nobody really knew about guys like Wilson, Dalton, and Kaepernick. Obviously Kaep didn't play as a rookie, but it shows that young QB's are capable of stepping in to provide an immediate impact.

     

    Now I don't think any of this year's rookie QB's are as talented as any of the recent QB's that I mentioned. I haven't really looked into the QB class yet, but from everything I've read, its very weak and may not even have a legitimate Round 1 prospect in it. But when you look at some combination of the above factors, I can definitely see the QB's stock rising drastically leading into April's draft.

  24. Posted

    SouthCarolina -

     

    I should clarify my comments on the Welker/Moss acquisitions. I shouldn't have called them sexy moves. What I meant was that those acquisitions were very much "against the grain" of what the Patriots were about. They didn't put a precedence on an explosive offense, a deep threat WR, or outscoring the opposition. The focused on defense, toughness, and clutch plays. All I'm saying was those moves definitely steered the Patriots in a different direction. And their previous direction, the one I just mentioned, had won 3 of the last 5 SB's. So I was confused by the change.

     

    As for the SpyGate & acquisitions - maybe I'm wrong. Like I said all along, I just connected the dots and brought it up for discussion. If the Pats acquired Moss/Welker long before they heard anything about SpyGate, then its a moot point. Although I will say - I wouldn't be quick to believe that the moment when Mangini ratted on SpyGate was the first that Belichick had heard about it. Bill probably was worried as soon as Mangini left for the Jets (date on that?). Maybe Mangini gave Bill a warning shot. Maybe the league notified the Patriots about an investigation prior to it being public knowledge.

     

    I apologize for the speculative comments, I certainly don't stand firm in this position. I'm just throwing more ideas out there on a subject that is very, very speculative in nature.

  25. Posted

    Contractually, Flacco could emerge as the top paid player, not just the top paid QB. Mainly because of timing and leverage. I think he is perhaps the 8th best QB in the league right now.

     

    However, the Ravens are going to want to lock him up, I bet they do not go the franchise route at all on this guy.

    I'm sure they want to lock him up, but this is the absolute WORST time for the Ravens to negotiate with Flacco.

    Free agent? Check

    Weak QB Class/FA Class? Check

    Coming off of his best season? Check

    Coming off of, perhaps, his best/biggest 4 games in his career? Check

    SB MVP? Check

     

    There's no way Flacco will be a top3 QB for the next 5 years, which is why I can't fathom any team giving him $20+ million a year. Flacco can't really do anything to improve his leverage. He already wants to be paid like the best, when we all know he isn't.

     

    Franchise him for 2013, and when he has another mediocre season with 3,800 yards, 24 TD's and the Ravens lose in the playoffs, lock him up with a 5 year, $75 million contract.

     

    The only way this situation gets complicated is if Flacco threatens a holdout.

     

    For the record, though, I fully expect Baltimore to sign him to a 5 year/$100 million contract. And I fully expect them to regret that.

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