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GreatGray

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About GreatGray

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  1. Stacking so many guys on 1 team limits your upside and is generally going to be a sub-optimal strategy. Go for more of a hybrid approach. Why? Because otherwise you are effetively capping your upside while simultaneously increasing your risk (AND lowering your weekly floor). If your WR, TE, or RB are all on the same team-- when any of them have a good week that directly means less yards/TDs for your other guys. There's only so many points to go around on a given team and you don't want your weekly upside capped. Bad matchups (or bad weeks) will be amplified more than good weeks for your team. Add to that the linked risks that Mahomes (or his primary targets) goes down with injury and you immediately have a vastly less resilient team. Whereas if you have a diversified portfolio of guys from similar tiers you are far better off when injuries strike and will still realize more upside on a weekly basis. It's far better to spread your risk and have the potential for ALL of your guys to have good weeks. No way do you want QB, WR, TE, and RB from the same team no matter how good the team is. Your highest probability of success if you like the Chiefs is to pick 1 combo (ie. Mahomes + Hill or Kelce) and then look elsewhere for similar production on other teams. In my opinion (for similar reasons) it is never optimal to stack QB and RB on the same team.
  2. GreatGray

    Auction Drafts 2019: Any Insights?

    Cam- $4, Wentz- $3, Winston- $2. LJack- $2, Dak went for a buck.
  3. GreatGray

    Auction Drafts 2019: Any Insights?

    Each auction is truly it's own unpredictable beast. That being said, 10-team, 0.5 ppr, my "big money" league (drafted a few nights ago; $200 auction budget)-- The top tier RBs went for roughly what I expected: Barkley at $61, Kamara at $62. I got McCaffrey for $56. Gurley and Elliot both for $48, DJ at $47. You had to be fairly aggressive if you wanted one of the next RB tier (hyped guys with some question marks): Chubb at $40, Mixon at $38, Connor at $34, Kerryon at $31. Carson went for $19, Mack for $17...I saw some value there. Schuster went for $34, AB for $30, Amari went for $28. Diggs was $22. Edelman was $20. I was happy to take Godwin for $14 and Kirk for $5. Kelce cost $37, Kittle at $29, Howard went for $13...I got Vance MacDonald at $2, Reed at $1. A few reflections: There are often good values to be found early before people get calibrated. Prices tend to get jacked up on the 2nd tier guys because people panic a bit (or reach for the "hyped" guys) if they were cautious early in the auction-- or they are all in on studs and duds. This year feels like there are a lot of dudes in that tier (and personally I wanted 1-2 of them in addition to a stud RB if possible). You gotta be aggressive and perhaps overpay a bit for those 2nd-3rd rounder guys you like. You're unlikely to get screaming value (without high-risk guys like AB or Gurley) there... so don't sleep. Waiting on a QB is all the rage this year...a no-brainer in a 10-team league. Mahomes went for $26. I took Matt Ryan for $4 and Klyer Murray for $4. Pretty much everyone spent less than $10 on QB and somebody has already dropped Jameis Winston. I felt like people overpaid for the tier 2-3 TEs. It feels like there is a lot of depth at TE to be had/streamed. Reach for your studs. Good luck.
  4. GreatGray

    Where does Antonio Brown become value vs. risk?

    People are in a full-blown panic about AB right now. This is when I'm watching real close for the buy-low window. I'm testing the waters on trades, tracking closely in auctions. There's obvious risk here. But a lot of this is pre-season media chatter, and there's still some big upside especially for PPR. Personally I'm seeing a buyers market on AB... if the price is right.
  5. GreatGray

    Championship Line up!

    McGuire would be the play for me. The Packers are not good enough on either side of the ball at this point to worry about a blow-out scenario there.
  6. GreatGray

    Tough QB decision

    When in doubt, I'd go with the most-likely shoot out...and look at what Vegas has for over-unders. Pitt-NE has highest total of the week at 54.5. Weather in PITT looks to be fine. It's nearly a coin-flip decision but I'd lean toward Brady.
  7. GreatGray

    Any sneaky WR start in the playoffs?

    I think Chris Godwin could have some sneaky value down the stretch...and he may still be there on waivers in some 10-team redraft leagues. Hes clearly got the talent, now the opportunity is there.
  8. GreatGray

    Mahomes

    Fine time to test the price in dynasty leagues if you ask me. This is all the buzz at the moment, and it's likely just pre-pre-season chatter. He can be gotten for fairly cheap right now but if he has a big pre-season showing watch out cause his value just went through the moon.
  9. GreatGray

    Mahomes

    Curious how you all are viewing his value heading into this season, especially in terms of dynasty ranks. To me it seems we've got one of the strongest arms in the league on a team with elite weapons and a renowned QB coach, plus those supposed "intangibles". Also a bad defense in KC that could further translate into plenty of big days for Mahomes. Sure, he's inexperienced and unproven in the NFL, may not be the most accurate dude ever and there's the usual risk but the situation is solid and the upside is clear. I traded 1.10 in my rookie draft to acquire him, which is admittedly a bit of a reach compared to the expert rankings I'm seeing...but I'm one to go with my gut and it still feels to me like plenty of room to pay off at that price (and other comparable options just feeling like higher bust potential with lower upside). Hype train yet to fully take off but we'll see how preseason goes. I'm expecting big things, willing to gamble a bit on him this year, especially in dynasty formats. Seems like he's got a shot to be a real value in redraft. What do you think?
  10. GreatGray

    Draft tonight, 10 team, Zeke at 10th pick?

    I just drafted earlier today and took Zeke at 1.09 in my primary money league (10-team non-PPR). I suspect the ADP for him is around mid-2nd round in competitive leagues, though ESPN still had his default quite a bit lower than that. There were some 1st-round keepers in play that fell into later rounds, which means my Zeke pick equates to something like ~13th pick overall, basically right after the top tier of WRs were gone--I took him before Gronk. I later confirmed that either one of the next 2 picks after mine would have drafted him if I hadn't. I missed out on McFadden later but not overly concerned about that.
  11. GreatGray

    Zeke Without Romo

    I dunno guys. We got a rookie RB running behind a rookie QB, and everybody and their mom is arguing for him to be an early first round pick. Good luck with that. The Hype Train done gone runaway on this one.
  12. GreatGray

    Karlos Williams Released

    I could see Washington being interested.
  13. 5' 11'', 219 lbs, and ran a 4.31 at the combine...anybody think this guy can ball or is he just a sprinter?
  14. GreatGray

    Christine Michael

    Yeah, fair enough. If you've got a shallow bench I'd just avoid the whole Seattle situation (including Rawls). With Prosise in the mix too I'd be totally looking elsewhere. Plus with shallow benches there's going to be plenty of legit options on waivers. These are deep league targets.
  15. GreatGray

    Dynasty Rookie Sleepers

    Just finished my rookie dynasty draft and got one of my favorite sleepers this year--Broxton Miller--at pick 3.09 in my 12-team. Then I snagged Tyler Higbee at 4.09. Not expecting much from either early on but I really like these guys' upside for the long haul, especially Miller. I was high on Diggs last year as a dynasty sleeper-- I still love him as a trade target in dynasty leagues as he's still flying under the radar in his current situation even though he showed a glimpse of his upside. Curious who you guys got as sleepers out of the mid-to-late dynasty rookie options this year, or perhaps other ideal trade targets.
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