KingBob300 0 Posted August 4, 2002 I noticed that after I entered a second set of projections the defense points seem to be strange. I created another key to rank by 50% from projection A and 50% from projection B. What caught my eye is St. Louis popped up into the number three spot. I then checked out the defense worksheet and noticed that for projected fantasy points it had calculated 179 from A, 189 from B and a total of 191 points? That didn't make sense. My league does use fantasy points for points allowed. Has anyone else seen this? Or am I just doing something wrong? I tried to look at the formulas, but my head started to spin Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike MacGregor 20 Posted August 4, 2002 LOL at head spinning. I've been there KingBob, believe me... Anyway, can you post the stats you used for STL for Site A and Site B exactly as you have them in the Compiler (all the way from Games column to Kick TD for each) and I'll try to recreate what you're getting? I copied the Eagles FF Today projections from Site A into Site B and switched to a 50/50 allocation and it seemed to calculate both sets identical and averaged them correctly, so I'm not sure what the problem is. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingBob300 0 Posted August 4, 2002 Ok, you asked for it. Here are the settings I am using and the results I am seeing. Site A FFToday Games Sack FR INT FR/INT TD Safety Block PtsAllow YdAllow Kick TD 16 48 16 22 2 1 2 260 4967 1 Site B CBS Sportsline 16 49 9 19 7 1 2 313 4646 0 2002 Projected Stats (Average) 16 49 13 21 5 1 2 287 4807 1 Everything looks ok there, seems to be average of two, but check out the fantasy point totals. 2002 Proj 2001_2h 2001 2000 1999 A B C 191.0 75.0 163.0 125.0 258.0 187.0 178.0 0.0 That is where I get confused. When I calculate points by hand I get a different result too...aye carumba Here are the scoring settings: DEF / ST FF Pts Per Dec Sack 1 1 1.00 Fumble recovery 2 1 2.00 INT return 2 1 2.00 FR or INT return TD 6 1 6.00 Safety 2 1 2.00 Blocked kick 2 1 2.00 Kick or Punt TD 6 1 6.00 DEF / ST Points Allowed FF Pts 0 to 0 = 10.00 1 to 6 = 7.00 7 to 13 = 4.00 14 to 20 = 1.00 21 to 27 = 0.00 28 to 99 = -1.00 Thanks a bunch. No worries if you don't have time to look at it. I still love the product. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mike MacGregor 20 Posted August 5, 2002 Well KingBob, I recreated your input and it did everything you said. As odd as it looks though, it seems to be calculating correctly. Let me explain what I found. First, I'm not surprised you had difficulty calculating the FF Pts by hand, because the Points Allowed (and Yards Allowed, but not used here) are somewhat complex. It takes the total points against and calculates an average allowed per game, then applies it to a normal distribution curve to find the probability of games in each point range specified in your table (0 to 0, 1 to 6, etc.) I added this somewhat recently, so figured this would be where the problem might be. However, when I made FF Pts for Points Allowed all 0, I still got projected fantasy points greater than either Site A or B. Taking out any FF Pts for Points Allowed, I was getting 159, 148 and 153 in each group respectively. I decided to calculate them by hand and here were the results: 2002 PROJ 2002 PROJ SITE A SITE A SITE B SITE B FF PTS STATS FF PTS STATS FF PTS STATS FF PTS SACK 1 49 49 48 48 49 49 FR 2 13 26 16 32 9 18 INT 2 21 42 22 44 19 38 FR/INT TD 6 5 30 2 12 7 42 SAFETY 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 BLOCK 2 2 4 2 4 2 4 KICK TD 6 1 6 1 6 0 0 --- --- --- 159 148 153 Ok, that might be a little hard to read, but it shows the stats and calculated FF Pts for each category. As you can see the average in 2002 Proj is pretty accurate. Avg of 48 sacks and 49 sacks is 49, avg of 16 FR and 9 FR is 13, avg of 22 INT and 19 INT is 21... What is happening here is that in each case where it is finding the average, it is rounding to the closest whole number. The reason this is done is because a team cannot record half a sack, or half an INT. It needs to be a whole number. As it turns out though, in 5 out of 7 of these stat categories given the stats you've inputted, the average rounds up, which increases the projections and therefore increases the projected fantasy points. To sum up, the results look funny, but it is just because of the averaging effect that is bumping up the 2002 projected FF Pts based on these Site A and B projections. Make sense? [ 08-05-2002: Message edited by: Mike MacGregor ] Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KingBob300 0 Posted August 5, 2002 That makes perfect sense. I didn't realized you used such a complex algorithm for computing the average points given up. Thanks for all your effort on this. Once again, you have a great product here. :cool: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
