Statistical continuity

[rocco 0]

First, I used this last year in a serpentine draft and really loved it. I was doing VBD on my own and this is a far easier tool to use. I really appreciate the hard work and the access you guys provide. I have a pretty deatailed scoring system and I am able to replicate within reason to your system.

 

That said, I was doing a pivot table on some of your forecasts and I noticed that on average you had Passing yards for a team exceeding receiving yards for the team on average 500 yards, sometimes as much as 1,200 yards. Concurrently, passing tds exceed receiving tds.

 

Looking at the data, the ups and downs of the individuals seem to follow historical trends. I am assuming that you only forecasted the major offense positions, with the assumption that undraftable scrubs would make up the difference in yardage and TDS as being unpredictable. Just looking for some validation. On a statistical basis, not on a personal one.

 

Now if only there was an auction componenet..........

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Is there actually a question in there rocco?

 

Seriously, Mike Krueger does the projections and I can see where there would be a discrepancy because he is ranking most every QB expected to have playing time, plus some who hopefully won't (Todd Bouman) but only 70 RBs and 70 WRs I believe. Depending how some teams distribute the ball, there could be a lot made up with unranked players.

 

In fact, Bouman is a good example of a guy who Mike has given some stats to because he definitely has value should he play, but Culpepper also appears to be projected for a full 16 games. From a statistical validity standpoint, obviously something does not jive there. It is a case where we need to play with the numbers a little to get Bouman to have some value in our rankings, but should the C-pep numbers hit on the nose, Bouman probably sat on the bench all year. I hope this doesn't shock anyone too much...

 

Auctions, auctions. I gotta get myself in an auction league. Whether I find one or not, let me say right now that this feature will be at the top of the Compiler to-do list for the offseason. I promise.

[rocco 0]

Hey Mike,

 

Fair enough. As a stat geek, just looking for a philosophy behind the structure, not really a criticism.

 

And auctions are the place to be. Being able to mess with someone else's midn and budget is the best part of the season! :cool:

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I was an accountant in a former life, so I could probably hold my own in an auction. Of course, my wife gets on me for not updating our Quicken records often enough and I can't remember where I spent my money, so maybe not!