Bust rate on 1st round WRs

[Kitrick Taylor 0]

Here's the 1st round WRs with their draft positions since 2000.

 

2000

1.04 Peter Warrick

1.08 Plaxico Burress

1.10 Travis Taylor

1.21 Sylvester Morris

1.29 RJ Soward

 

2001

1.08 David Terrell

1.09 Koren Robinson

1.15 Rod Gardner

1.16 Santana Moss

1.25 Freddie Mitchell

1.30 Reggie Wayne

 

2002

1.13 Donte Stallworth

1.19 Ashley Lelie

1.20 Javon Walker

 

2003

1.02 Charles Rogers

1.03 Andre Johnson

1.17 Bryant Johnson

 

2004

1.03 Larry Fitzgerald

1.07 Roy Williams

1.09 Reggie Williams

1.13 Lee Evans

1.15 Michael Clayton

1.29 Michael Jenkins

1.31 Rashaun Woods

 

2005

1.03 Braylon Edwards

1.07 Troy Williamson

1.10 Mike Williams

1.21 Matt Jones

1.22 Mark Clayton

1.27 Roddy White

 

Obviously we are able to judge the 1st three of those classes a lot better than the last 3.

 

2000 appears to be largely a total bust year. Plaxico is decent, but for a top 10 pick, a stretch.

 

2001 produced S Moss and Wayne, both nice WRs, but it also gave up four other 1st rounders that aren't with their teams that they were originally drafted by.

 

2002 gave up a probowler in Walker, but Lelie and Stallworth have yet to live up to the potential. I don't think either is a full out bust yet, but they could easily go either way at this point.

 

2003 Bryant Johnson isn't starting, A. Johnson went to the probowl a year ago, but has yet to dominate, and has been gawd awful so far this year. Rogers is bordering on busting.

 

2004 This class came out and looked great. However, all but Fitzgerald have come back down to earth. A long ways to go before we can determine their fates.

 

2005. Edwards, Williamson and Jones have made some plays, but obviously its way to early to call on this class.

 

All in all not very many probowls here, and a lot of busts. Seems like a very risky position to take in RD1.

[DrJ 0]

Don't remind me - I'm sick of wasting 1st round dynasty picks on these guys.

[Albert Hammond Jr. 0]

wow, who is RJ Soward? i've never even hear of this guy

[DrJ 0]

wow, who is RJ Soward? i've never even hear of this guy

 

Jacksonville WR that liked drugs more than playing football.

[Kitrick Taylor 0]

DRJ- Thats kind of what I was getting at. Better off getting a 2nd or 3rd Rd RB maybe.

 

RJ Soward was taken by JVille, a WR from USC. Compete buster.

[DrJ 0]

DRJ- Thats kind of what I was getting at. Better off getting a 2nd or 3rd Rd RB maybe.

 

RJ Soward was taken by JVille, a WR from USC. Compete buster.

The only problem is that you look at the elite, elite WR's and a good portion of them are 1st rounders/early 2nds.

 

Moss - 1st

Holt - 1st

Harrison - 1st

C Johnson - Early 2nd

Boldin - Early 2nd

D Jackson - Early 2nd

Owens - Mid 2nd

 

Elite WR's from the past were 1sts overall as well. Rice was a 1st, C Carter was a 1st...

 

While there is a big bust rate, the odds of these guys being elite is better than some WR taken in the 3rd/4th rounds...by a lot.

[DrJ 0]

Look at the list so far this season:

 

1) S Smith - 2nd I believe

2) Holt - 1st

3) C Johnson - early 2nd

4) S Moss - 1st

5) Owens - mid 2nd

6) T Glenn - 1st

7) Galloway - 1st

8) Fitzgerald - 1st

9) Burress - 1st

10) Boldin - Early 2nd

 

So, of the top 10 WR's this season - 6 of 10 are 1sts and all 10 were taken in the 2nd or better.

 

Thing is, you do have a huge bust rate, but the guys that do hit stick around FOREVER. So while not too many guys hit, the elite talent still ends up being mostly 1sts. Basically, the odds of busting are pretty big, but if you do hit, you've got a piece for your dynasty squad for the next decade...

[Portis26 0]

Sly Morris would have been a star if not for the injuries if you ask'd me.

[DrJ 0]

Sly Morris would have been a star if not for the injuries if you ask'd me.

There's no doubt that Boston would have...the guy was a freak in the making until he flaked out and decided to go bodybuilder on everyone.

[esoitl 0]

wow, who is RJ Soward? i've never even hear of this guy

 

Jacksonville WR that liked drugs more than playing football.

yet he has had a productive CFL career

 

 

even looking at this, i wouldnt say its the position

some of these guys, the later 1st rounders, were stretches

no way should Bryant Johnson have been a 1st rounder and if you remember, Arizona had 2 1sts and they reached on both, surprise surprise both flopped(Calvin Pace was the other)

 

part of this list is bad scouting, bad character, a WR dominating poor divisions and then their talent level gets exposed, injuries etc.....

you can come up with lists for every position

 

its true though, stud WRs rarely come from the low rounds but remember, Boldin was a 3rd rounder that everyone said was too slow and couldnt run

[Datathief 0]

Look at the list so far this season:

 

1) S Smith - 2nd I believe

Steve Smith was a fourth or fifth round pick. He was considered too short.

[Kitrick Taylor 0]

Steve Smith was 3.12 in 2001.

 

Darrell Jackson was 3.18 in 2000.

 

I agree that you have to keeps swinging for them in dynasties, just assume you are getting a bust I guess. The RBs seem to be a better bet anyway.

[Sparky's Revenge 0]

Owens wasn't a mid 2nd, he was a late 3rd.

 

Branch-2nd rounder

 

Driver- 7th round

 

Ward- late 3rd round

 

1st round receivers, big crap shoot. Matt Millen total idiot for wasting 3 top ten picks on receivers.

[joefry 0]

Fitz is an official stud after this week. Huge crunch time td. That is what seperates the poop from the pee.