Edge James in Arizona

[Nichee 0]

I'm trying to figure out where to tier Edge in Arizona in a PPR league. This isn't a question of if he'll produce, he will. Just how much.

 

I took a look at the history of the lead runner on a Dennis Green-coached team.

1992: Terry Allen 49 receptions

1993-96: No true feature back; 3rd down back Amp Lee put up 45, 71, 54 rec in this time

1997: Robert Smith breaks out 1,266 rush yards; 37 rec

1998: Smith lead carrier with 1,187 yards; 28 rec

1999: Smith 1,000 yards; 24 rec

2000: Smith 1,521 rush; 36 rec

2001: leading back receiver: 29 rec

 

Arizona

2004: Old Emmitt, 24 rec

2005: Arrington/Shipp combine for 60 rec

 

Now it might just be that Edge is a better receiving back that Smith, end of story right there. But some of the earlier numbers scream good but not stud in PPR.

 

However, that 60 combined from last year from Arrington/Shipp sticks out to me. It bucks the trend, but it's more recent, so I think it deserves more weight.

 

Edge's receptions last 4 years in Indy: 61, 51, 51 44.

 

I guess I'm just feeling gunshy about burning a first round pick on a RB from Arizona.

 

Thoughts?

[gottabesweet84 0]

45

[famousb 11]

also, if you're looking at old Denny Green coached teams, you should also look at how many times KWarner targeted the RB... granted, he was in a system where they threw to Faulk alot, but that also plays a part in the style of offense ARZ may run w/ Edge back there...

 

I see alot of them being behind again this year, which will continue their passing trend. It'll also mean both LFitz and Boldin stretching the field deep, and Edge as a safety valve to maybe get some passes in the flat w/ an LB covering him. Edge may not be 100% of what he was when he first came into the league, but an LB covering him is still a mismatch which can (and will) be exploited. Warner was smart enough to recognize that w/ Faulk, and i'm willing to guarantee he'll be smart enough to recognize that with Edge. Especially considering his arm strength isn't good enough (or accurate as it once was) to get the ball deep to the WRs, but he has enough experience to know that just keeping the drive alive is important too...

 

i'll go about 55, with a basement of 35.

[jerryskids 6,790]

There is a trend there; his teams threw more to the back when they couldn't run effectively. Last year AZ used the screen a lot as a faux run because they were so awful at running. They can't possibly run any worse this year, so I'd expect that number to go down. The 45 stated earlier seems a reasonable target.

[Raider 84 29]

-40-

[texasmouth 1]

30-40 is my guess. If the oline isnt any better, Warner will be dumping the ball off to Edge a lot.

[Nichee 0]

There is a trend there; his teams threw more to the back when they couldn't run effectively. Last year AZ used the screen a lot as a faux run because they were so awful at running. They can't possibly run any worse this year, so I'd expect that number to go down. The 45 stated earlier seems a reasonable target.

 

Interesting.

 

Perhaps you're right. Maybe the 60 receptions by Arizona HBs in 2005 is misleading. I hadn't accounted for screens in lieu of runs. But if you take the top 10 RB scorers in PPR last year with 30 or more receptions, the average per catch is about 2 yards more per catch than the Arizona HB position. That validates, to me, the screen/dumpoff scenario in lieu of runs.

 

So, the question becomes how effective is he going to be running the ball behind Arizona's line?

[famousb 11]

Interesting.

 

Perhaps you're right. Maybe the 60 receptions by Arizona HBs in 2005 is misleading. I hadn't accounted for screens in lieu of runs. But if you take the top 10 RB scorers in PPR last year with 30 or more receptions, the average per catch is about 2 yards more per catch than the Arizona HB position. That validates, to me, the screen/dumpoff scenario in lieu of runs.

 

So, the question becomes how effective is he going to be running the ball behind Arizona's line?

 

honestly, in a PPR league, i'd rather have screens in lieue of runs. you're getting one point EVERY time he touches the ball that way. Give me a shuttle pass instead of a handoff anyday. If a guy normally has 20-25 touches a game, and 10 of those come from a shuttle pass/screen/dump off he's already putting up good numbers.

[ellisonb11 0]

30-50 catches. i dont think he will reach the 50 mark, so its a reach.

[remote controller 143]

I don't see Edge's receptions being anything like his tenure in Indy. I do see him scoring often, as this offense should do well between the 20's, leaving him many oppurtunities to score.

[SoloMatisse 0]

Id guess his catches will fall in the 50-60 range, with an avg/rec at somewhere between 6 and 7. I can see him carrying a large load this year for the Cards, but Id fully expect his rush avg to be below 4. So Id expect high total touches, but moderate yardage totals considering the volume. Top 10 somewhere, and in a PPR, he should have a little more value.

[remote controller 143]

Id guess his catches will fall in the 50-60 range, with an avg/rec at somewhere between 6 and 7. I can see him carrying a large load this year for the Cards, but Id fully expect his rush avg to be below 4. So Id expect high total touches, but moderate yardage totals considering the volume. Top 10 somewhere, and in a PPR, he should have a little more value.

That is a few more catches than I see, though I agree with the load he'll carry. I see his role as pounding the rock successfully, tieing up Lb's and safeties, giving Fitz and Boldin ample open field to exploit. If Edge gets that many receptions I feel he will be a top 5 back.

[crocodilecj 0]

I say 55ish as well, with barely 1,100 rush yards.

 

Mediocre O-line scares me as far as rushing numbers. They'll still have to pass a lot and he'll be third on the team in receptions.

[hipcheck 0]

Now that he got his fat-contract, I think edges Top 10 days are over

[BostonRedSox 0]

I have him ranked sixth amongst RBs. He'll get drafted around 6 or 7 in our 12 team PPR league.