Which Draft Position Would You Choose?

[Norwood....Wide Right! 3]

12 Team League

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT/ST

4 pts per TD pass, 6 pts for all others

1 Point per reception

 

You have the option of drafting from any position, 1-12. Which do you choose and why?

 

 

 

 

Good to be back on the board!

[Guest the_chefs?]

12 Team League

Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DT/ST

4 pts per TD pass, 6 pts for all others

1 Point per reception

 

You have the option of drafting from any position, 1-12. Which do you choose and why?

Good to be back on the board!

 

#9. First 3 rounds, you're sure to get 2 Top 15 RBs and a Top 10 WR. MONEY IN THE BANK.

[Norwood....Wide Right! 3]

#9. First 3 rounds, you're sure to get 2 Top 15 RBs and a Top 10 WR. MONEY IN THE BANK.

 

 

Which players do you anticipate drafting from the 9 spot? I would have thought 9 is one of the least desirable positions from which to draft...

[TIKI-BARBERS-BARBER 0]

4th spot and I'd grab Tiki

[De Novo 0]

3rd spot. Ensures a top tier RB, a top tier WR and good shot at 2nd tier RB (if not, a 3rd)

[clintbob 0]

1st LJ is the best and you get back to back picks on out.i have been checking more things and the # are in now.strength of schedule for the reg season.LT hardest of all rb.SA 2nd hardest of all rb.LJ 24th. if you have to pick 4th & 5th tiki is 30th ez schedule playoff week 15&16 he plays phi&no & clinton is 20th reg season & his playoff teams are no&stl.

[De Novo 0]

1st LJ is the best and you get back to back picks on out.i have been checking more things and the # are in now.strength of schedule for the reg season.LT hardest of all rb.SA 2nd hardest of all rb.LJ 24th. if you have to pick 4th & 5th tiki is 30th ez schedule playoff week 15&16 he plays phi&no & clinton is 20th reg season & his playoff teams are no&stl.

 

Spacebar doesn't work after periods?

[wildbluefan 0]

THIRD spot is best, makes first round pick a NO-BRAINER with a stud RB !!!

[lguero1 4]

12th, go caddie or ronnie brown and westbrook, who is a god with point per reception. hope you don't get stuck w/ mcgahee.

[Norwood....Wide Right! 3]

12th, go caddie or ronnie brown and westbrook, who is a god with point per reception. hope you don't get stuck w/ mcgahee.

 

 

 

If you are confident in your drafting abilities, why not draft LJ from the 1 spot?

[Guest the_chefs?]

Which players do you anticipate drafting from the 9 spot? I would have thought 9 is one of the least desirable positions from which to draft...

 

It may well be. I always plan for the worst and hope for the best. But my reasoning for picking 9 would be even if all 8 guys in front of you take running backs, you're still going to have your pick from good second-level guys. Just say you get Lamont Jordan or Steven Jackson at 9, then you get Ronnie Brown at 16. Not the big 3, but no slouches to say the least. In front of your 3rd pick, the guys at 1,2,3 will still be picking up their second RB and you'll be working on a WR...maybe get Chris Chambers, Darrell Jackson, or Roy Williams. Again, not Holt, Owens, Smith, but not bad. You could even snake out Chad Johnson at 13 then come back with Reuben Droughns at 33. Meanwhile, that guy that got LT at 3 has got a RBBC coworker as his #2 when he picks at 22.

 

I just think that by being more in the middle talent-wise, you're working the averages better. Two guys that frequently perform well will occassionally perform superb. If you're picking 3rd or 4th you're second round pick almost has to be a RB and it might still end up being a guy with injury or ball-touch questions and if you don't pick a RB there then the whole argument is moot because by the time it gets back to the 3rd round you'll be looking at unproven rookies, RBBC's and injured vets for sure. I'd rather have two guys working for me at 80% than one guy working at 95% and one guy at 30%.

 

At 9 I think you'll have some options on who you want, rather than it being somewhat dictated by the picks coming off the board in front of you. 9 might not be the flashy pick, but we can't all ride shotgun.

[De Novo 0]

12th, go caddie or ronnie brown and westbrook, who is a god with point per reception. hope you don't get stuck w/ mcgahee.

 

Have fun with the 47th, 48th, 71st and 72 picks overall.

[ExtremeFajita 0]

I'll have to be a lemming on this and vote for the 3 spot. It reduces the amount of thinking you have to do early on :-)

 

That said, I like 4 and 5 as well because I think Tiki and Clinton could end up in the top 3 scoring.

 

 

Re: #9 spot

The typical draft (based on mock info from antsports and myfantasyleague) will see Steven Jackson and Lamont Jordan going at 6 & 7 overall. Chances are you won't see either one at the 9-spot. You will be looking at Rudi, Ronnie or Cadillac for your RB1. RB2 options are most likely Davis, Westbrook, Julius or Kevin Jones.

 

If Jackson or Jordan dropped to me at 9, I think I would grab the stud WR at 16.

[Young_Grasshopper 0]

Agreed, I'd go for 3rd - 5th spot. Get a great RB and still have a shot at an elite WR toward the end of the second round. Early third round is not real good, but late fourth round and early fifth round have a lot of solid players.

 

Drafting 12th out of 12 I ended up with:

D Davis

T Holt

D Foster

Roy Williams

 

I was happy with this, but could have used better RBs.

[De Novo 0]

But my reasoning for picking 9 would be even if all 8 guys in front of you take running backs, you're still going to have your pick from good second-level guys.

Makes zero sense. You want the first crack at 2nd level guys?

 

Just say you get Lamont Jordan or Steven Jackson at 9, then you get Ronnie Brown at 16.

You won't get Jordan or Jackson at 9 in most drafts, and won't get Ronnie Brown at 16 in ANY draft

 

Not the big 3, but no slouches to say the least. In front of your 3rd pick, the guys at 1,2,3 will still be picking up their second RB and you'll be working on a WR...maybe get Chris Chambers, Darrell Jackson, or Roy Williams. Again, not Holt, Owens, Smith, but not bad. You could even snake out Chad Johnson at 13 then come back with Reuben Droughns at 33. Meanwhile, that guy that got LT at 3 has got a RBBC coworker as his #2 when he picks at 22.

Nowhere in there did you make any sense.

 

 

by being more in the middle talent-wise, you're working the averages better.

Being in the middle is kinda the definition of average

 

Two guys that frequently perform well will occassionally perform superb. If you're picking 3rd or 4th you're second round pick almost has to be a RB and it might still end up being a guy with injury or ball-touch questions and if you don't pick a RB there then the whole argument is moot because by the time it gets back to the 3rd round you'll be looking at unproven rookies, RBBC's and injured vets for sure. I'd rather have two guys working for me at 80% than one guy working at 95% and one guy at 30%.

This seals the deal as the worst post ever

[unckeyherb 2]

I just think that by being more in the middle talent-wise, you're working the averages better. Two guys that frequently perform well will occassionally perform superb. If you're picking 3rd or 4th you're second round pick almost has to be a RB and it might still end up being a guy with injury or ball-touch questions and if you don't pick a RB there then the whole argument is moot because by the time it gets back to the 3rd round you'll be looking at unproven rookies, RBBC's and injured vets for sure. I'd rather have two guys working for me at 80% than one guy working at 95% and one guy at 30%.

 

If you are picking third or fourth why do you HAVE to pick a RB? I could see picking LT at 3, Fitz or Holt at 22 and Kevin Jones or maybe even a stretch would be Julius Jones at 27. I could then go either with an "injured vet" like Duece McCallister to be my RB3 or snag another decent WR2 such as Driver or Roy Williams.

 

If my first four picks looked like this....

 

LT

Holt

Julius Jones

Roy Williams/Duece McCallister

 

....I'd be quite satisfied with my draft.

[Jeremy 0]

1st LJ is the best and you get back to back picks on out.i have been checking more things and the # are in now.strength of schedule for the reg season.LT hardest of all rb.SA 2nd hardest of all rb.LJ 24th. if you have to pick 4th & 5th tiki is 30th ez schedule playoff week 15&16 he plays phi&no & clinton is 20th reg season & his playoff teams are no&stl.

 

Alexander's schedule is among the easiest, I thought.

 

 

I actually like #2 overall. I'd be equally happy with either LJ or Alexander. I'm a half tier lower on Tomlinson, mostly due to the rookie QB thing. Not that Tomlinson won't still excell, but LJ and Alexander appeal to me a little more, and I wouldn't care to try to guess which one would be better.

[skinsrule05 30]

If you are picking third or fourth why do you HAVE to pick a RB? I could see picking LT at 3, Fitz or Holt at 22 and Kevin Jones or maybe even a stretch would be Julius Jones at 27. I could then go either with an "injured vet" like Duece McCallister to be my RB3 or snag another decent WR2 such as Driver or Roy Williams.

 

If my first four picks looked like this....

 

LT

Holt

Julius Jones

Roy Williams/Duece McCallister

 

....I'd be quite satisfied with my draft.

 

I think that is being a little optomistic according to their ADPs. But it does look like you could take all of them except Holt (including Deuce). That would be a strong team.

 

LT= 1.03

Holt= 2.06 (you have pick 2.10)

JJ= 2.10 (you have pick 3.3)

Roy= 3.12 or Deuce=5.07 (you have pick 4.10)

 

I like to think you can get value at anywhere in the draft. My least favorite would be the end (10-12) but you can still get value.

[taa455 0]

I'd say 4 or 5.

[rebooters 1]

3rd spot. Ensures a top tier RB, a top tier WR and good shot at 2nd tier RB (if not, a 3rd)

[Guest the_chefs?]

This seals the deal as the worst post ever

 

 

Hey cool. Less than 20 posts on here and I'm already in the hall of fame. See ya at the ceremony.

[Norwood....Wide Right! 3]

If you assume that the big 3 are a cut above, I can understand the logic of picking third overall. Choosing to pick third when first and second are available means that you probably believe there is greater value in being able to select your 2nd rounder earlier while still acquiring one of the big 3 versus the value of picking first overall and selecting who you believe is the most valuable of the big 3.

 

So assuming LJ is the consensus #1, SA is #2 and LT is #3, by voluntarily picking third you forego LJ b/c you believe the gap between LJ and LT is less valuable than the choices that will be available to you at 2.10 as related to 2.11 and 2.12. This logic extends into the later even numbered rounds as well. The value in later even numbered rounds probably has more to do with those few instances where you can avoid a player being plucked right before your turn, which could have been avoided if you selected third overall rather than first or second overall. (of course, the converse could be true in the later odd numbered rounds).

 

Using ADP on Antsports as a concrete example, if you select LT at 1.3, Larry Fitzgerald is the player w/ an ADP of 2.10. If you selected 1.1 or 1.2 overall, you 'd have Marvin Harrison and Kevin Jones as your selections, respectively.

 

The point is, you shouldn't pick third overall to avoid making a wrong decision about the big 3. You should pick third if you think greater value exists in foregoing choice in the first round for choice in the second round, as well as later rounds.

[Guest the_chefs?]

Makes zero sense. You want the first crack at 2nd level guys?

 

Might as well be prepared and actually do so some research on deeper backs in the draft so that you have an idea of who to go after in the beginning of the 2nd tier. So it makes perfect sense. The first round are all likely to be the top 12 backs on the board anyway.

 

You won't get Jordan or Jackson at 9 in most drafts, and won't get Ronnie Brown at 16 in ANY draft

 

Lets just assume we don't have these wonderful discussions on this board and the 11 other guys in your draft look at the Top 125 overall list in the ProFootball Weekly fantasy edition...probably some level of blasphemy around here, but whatever this is just for demonstration...

 

1. LJ

2. SA

3. LT

4. PManning

5. Portis

6. Barber

7. Edge

8. TO

9. Jordan

10. Rudi

11. Caddy

12. CJohnson

13. Steven Jackson

.

.

20. Ronnie Brown

 

For the record, I went off my own list in giving my examples in my original post. I've got Jackson and 8 and Jordan at 9 and Brown at 13. Unless you have some unknown psychic human power, no one can predict exactly where a guy is going to go. So I added in a +/- 2 spot swing. This easily puts all of the picks I gave examples for well within reach. Someone could easily pick Manning at 4, someone could pick TO or Steve Smith at 8. Would I? No. Would you? Obviously not. Point is, you don't know who is going to take which player in what position.

 

Picking at 3, LT is pretty much handed to you. No thought involved. Picking at 9, you're already in the mix and trying to find the best guys out of the gate. Every other thread around here is looking for the big break out of this year. A 9th pick ensures your top 2 backs, if you chose to take them, will be of about the same caliber player. IMO, the best candidates to "break out" are the guys who are in that 2nd tier and are just needing the team to get some pieces together around them. So why not be in a position to have first shot at them?

 

This seals the deal as the worst post ever

 

Well, I am a rookie around here. I've only been here about a week. You're a geek and you've been here.....3 weeks. Ouch. I guess "ever" is quite as long as it used to be.

 

 

And to the guy that started this thread...Sorry man, there are 38 people picking at 3 and 4. You're stuck at 9.

[De Novo 0]

If you assume that the big 3 are a cut above, I can understand the logic of picking third overall. Choosing to pick third when first and second are available means that you probably believe there is greater value in being able to select your 2nd rounder earlier while still acquiring one of the big 3 versus the value of picking first overall and selecting who you believe is the most valuable of the big 3.

 

So assuming LJ is the consensus #1, SA is #2 and LT is #3, by voluntarily picking third you forego LJ b/c you believe the gap between LJ and LT is less valuable than the choices that will be available to you at 2.10 as related to 2.11 and 2.12. This logic extends into the later even numbered rounds as well. The value in later even numbered rounds probably has more to do with those few instances where you can avoid a player being plucked right before your turn, which could have been avoided if you selected third overall rather than first or second overall. (of course, the converse could be true in the later odd numbered rounds).

 

Using ADP on Antsports as a concrete example, if you select LT at 1.3, Larry Fitzgerald is the player w/ an ADP of 2.10. If you selected 1.1 or 1.2 overall, you 'd have Marvin Harrison and Kevin Jones as your selections, respectively.

 

The point is, you shouldn't pick third overall to avoid making a wrong decision about the big 3. You should pick third if you think greater value exists in foregoing choice in the first round for choice in the second round, as well as later rounds.

 

Agreed completely. My logic for picking 3rd is that I'm completely ambivalent between Tomlinson and Alexander, and I'd prefer not to take a chance on Larry Johnson with all the changes that took place in KC. Don't get me wrong, I think he will be the top scorer in about 60% of the scenarios you run but I think his downside, an aging line, nobody there to push him, and loss of FB, make him just a little risky for the top pick.

 

The other reason I'd like to pick 3rd is that I prefer picks as spread out as possible. If you use any sort of VBD, the more evenly spread out your picks are, the more certainty you have with respect to what will be available at the next pick, and the fewer times you have to draft based on need. Fewer "runs" on positions will occur between your picks, so you're not left scraping the bottom of the barrel as often. If it weren't for the fact you'll pick 3rd in the 3rd round also (I think my choice of the top tier WRs will be available here, but likely not 2 picks later), I might choose to pick 5th and take Portis or Tiki.

 

On your point around 1.1 having Harrison, etc. to choose from in the 2nd round. While I understand your point, I think it's worthwhile to point out that at pick 2.12 it's highly likely you'll get someone with an ADP of around 2.7 or 2.8 just because of differences in opinion and strategy among other drafters.

 

Might as well be prepared and actually do so some research on deeper backs in the draft so that you have an idea of who to go after in the beginning of the 2nd tier. So it makes perfect sense.

So you'd rather have first crack at 2nd tier than last crack at 1st tier?

 

 

Lets just assume we don't have these wonderful discussions on this board and the 11 other guys in your draft look at the Top 125 overall list in the ProFootball Weekly fantasy edition...probably some level of blasphemy around here, but whatever this is just for demonstration...

 

4. PManning

8. TO

13. Steven Jackson

20. Ronnie Brown

Not in a million years will Ronnie Brown go 20th. Manning at 4th, TO at 8th, and Steven Jackson at 13th only add to the hilarity of PFW

 

Well, I am a rookie around here. I've only been here about a week. You're a geek and you've been here.....3 weeks. Ouch. I guess "ever" is quite as long as it used to be.

And to the guy that started this thread...Sorry man, there are 38 people picking at 3 and 4. You're stuck at 9.

I never said I was posting here forever (although I do have about 10k posts under other names). Post count doesn't mean much anyway, in light of 1,000 post long post-padding threads. I'll apologize for being rude, but I was just so blown away by the lack of sense you made I didn't know what else to do. Carry on.

[Cuse9 128]

De Novo...are you the guy that posted Maddox would throw for 5000 yds? Why did you change your name? What are you hiding? You do make me laugh however, I'm pretty sure it says which would you choose. He chose ninth.....makes this topic a little more interesting. Your freakin out the guy because he didn't follow the sheep and make a top three pick his selection.....big deal.

 

 

Where do you think Jackson and Jordan will go by the way....you say they won't go 9th...they'll be gone.

LT, LJ, SA, Portis, Barber, Edge, Rudi, Manning.......I would think it's pretty reasonable to say those 8 could easily be the first 8 taken in ALOT of drafts. What do you know...that leaves Jordan or Jackson at the 9 pick. In any event, I think you're missing "The Chefs" whole point.....I won't explain it to you because he already has...and if you don't get it by now....no sense in me saying anymore.

 

The Chefs. Since you're a newbie in here, let me explain something....you never need to explain yourself in here. Some guys put on blinders and only see what they think and refuse to look in a different direction. As for you wanting to pick ninth....I disagree, but I see what your getting at. You would rather have two great players as opposed to one superstar.

 

My pick: I'd want the 12th. For two reasons.

 

1) I like picking back to back, especially for rounds 7 on...if I need to handcuff any backs I don't have to worry about someone else stealing them

 

2) If I'm picking 12th...last....that means that most likely I was the Champ the year before

[texasmouth 1]

THIRD spot is best, makes first round pick a NO-BRAINER with a stud RB !!!

I agree with this as well. Not to mention you can still grab a #2 RB with the 2nd pick and a decent WR on the 3rd round turn.

[Stars 0]

9th and retain Larry Johnson in the first round.

[De Novo 0]

De Novo...are you the guy that posted Maddox would throw for 5000 yds? Why did you change your name? What are you hiding? You do make me laugh however, I'm pretty sure it says which would you choose. He chose ninth.....makes this topic a little more interesting. Your freakin out the guy because he didn't follow the sheep and make a top three pick his selection.....big deal.

 

Thanks for the lesson. I didn't "freak out" because he didn't follow the sheep. He just babbled on about reasons that made little sense. He claims as fact that the guys at 1, 2, 3 will be working on getting their 2nd RB in the 2nd round thus allowing him to get a very good WR. Despite the chefs claiming that Holt, Owens, Smith, Harrison (and other top WRs) would be taken so far, the 22nd overall player taken will be mired in a RBBC. Ummm, yeah, ok. But the chefs, in all his brilliance, will land a vetted starter at 33 in Droughns. Nice drafting! "I just think that by being more in the middle talent-wise, you're working the averages better." So I should seek out mediocre players because they're more consistent? What the hell does that mean? "Two guys that frequently perform well will occassionally perform superb." Wait, I thought we were talking about working the averages. "If you're picking 3rd or 4th you're second round pick almost has to be a RB and it might still end up being a guy with injury or ball-touch questions and if you don't pick a RB there then the whole argument is moot because by the time it gets back to the 3rd round you'll be looking at unproven rookies, RBBC's and injured vets for sure." Wait, I thought the chefs was going to be able to get Droughns 6 picks later? "I'd rather have two guys working for me at 80% than one guy working at 95% and one guy at 30%." Well no sh1t! I like the arbitrary 30% he came up with. I want to draft good players which is why I want to pick <insert draft position here> "At 9 I think you'll have some options on who you want, rather than it being somewhat dictated by the picks coming off the board in front of you." So if you're targeting Jackson and Jordan and they get drafted 6-7 or 7-8, hasn't your pick been dictated for you?

 

 

My point is, he could have said he wanted to pick ANYWHERE in the draft, and I'd have picked apart what he said because it made so little sense. I'd equate his reasoning to a 3-paragraph essay titled "Red is a better color than blue because I like it better. I'll prove it to you."

[listen2me 23 1,542]

Just no where near the end (8-12)....there are just not enough RBs this year to satisfy....

 

Id definatly love a top 3 pick....

[Norwood....Wide Right! 3]

While selecting top 3 practically guarantees you a stud RB, these spots are not necessarily ideal for the RB RB theorist. Assuming you pick up LT third overall and you subscribe to the stud RB theory, the RBs probably available to you at 2.10 will be Kevin Jones, Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis. Now these are not bad picks by any means, and you may be able to scoop up one of them in the third round after picking up a stud WR. If they are not, 2nd tier speculations like Tatum Bell and Chester Taylor would be the next likely considerations.

 

But a stud RB theorist should also consider dropping down in the 1st round. Assuming you draft from the 9 spot, one of Edge, S-Jax, Lamont or Ronnie Brown will almost certainly be available. Then, at 2.04, you should have the opportunity to pick up Brian Westbrook (a great selection in a ppr league) or Willis McGahee. In round 3, lower 1st tier WRs like Hines Ward and D-Jax will probably still be on the board.

 

Depending on your projections, drafting from the 9 spot might provide a better backfield than drafting 1-3 with the intention of drafting a RB in round 2. And many would agree that drafting 1-3 is not a clear cut a choice as it may seem once you examine where players in the first 4 or 5 rounds will likely fall.

 

 

In this scenario, I am assuming a 12 team PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DT, offers 4 pts per TD pass and bonus points for longer scores.

 

Most of us realize that leagues are won during the middle rounds of drafts and not at the beginning. But it is still important to consider where you would like to draft, and what types of scenarios are likely to play out from the various positions.

 

Any additional takes are welcomed. And would your analysis drastically change if the league awarded 6 pts per TD pass?

[De Novo 0]

While selecting top 3 practically guarantees you a stud RB, these spots are not necessarily ideal for the RB RB theorist. Assuming you pick up LT third overall and you subscribe to the stud RB theory, the RBs probably available to you at 2.10 will be Kevin Jones, Willie Parker and Jamal Lewis. Now these are not bad picks by any means, and you may be able to scoop up one of them in the third round after picking up a stud WR. If they are not, 2nd tier speculations like Tatum Bell and Chester Taylor would be the next likely considerations.

 

But a stud RB theorist should also consider dropping down in the 1st round. Assuming you draft from the 9 spot, one of Edge, S-Jax, Lamont or Ronnie Brown will almost certainly be available. Then, at 2.04, you should have the opportunity to pick up Brian Westbrook (a great selection in a ppr league) or Willis McGahee. In round 3, lower 1st tier WRs like Hines Ward and D-Jax will probably still be on the board.

 

Depending on your projections, drafting from the 9 spot might provide a better backfield than drafting 1-3 with the intention of drafting a RB in round 2. And many would agree that drafting 1-3 is not a clear cut a choice as it may seem once you examine where players in the first 4 or 5 rounds will likely fall.

In this scenario, I am assuming a 12 team PPR league that starts 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DT, offers 4 pts per TD pass and bonus points for longer scores.

 

Most of us realize that leagues are won during the middle rounds of drafts and not at the beginning. But it is still important to consider where you would like to draft, and what types of scenarios are likely to play out from the various positions.

 

Any additional takes are welcomed. And would your analysis drastically change if the league awarded 6 pts per TD pass?

 

Valid points. To me, the biggest value in picking 3rd outside of getting a top-3 RB isn't where I pick in the 2nd but where I pick in the 3rd. Unless a top 12 RB slips to 22nd overall, I'm taking an elite WR and then following it up with a RB. Not necessarily the stud RB/RB philosophy but I'm not sure any position affords you that luxury this year unless you're in a pretty easy league.

 

I don't think my analysis would change much if 6 pts were awarded per TD pass. That probably makes Manning about 1-1.5 pts better per game than the next best QB. Not enough for me to live with playing catch-up. You could end up with a great draft taking Manning early, but the risk of getting stuck with Corey Dillon and Warrick Dunn as your RBs is too high, and then you're playing catch-up on WRs too. I think you're giving up more than the 3-4 pts you're getting by taking Manning that early.

[penguinbda 0]

Hard to pass up being in top 3 with the size the drop off after that.