LaMont, Rudi, S-Jax

[jagermeister 0]

This year, most draft results I've seen are pointing to three tiers of top RB talent (before the field becomes a bit more clouded); this is nothing new and as to be expected:

 

Tier 1: LJ, Alexander, Tomlinson

 

Tier 2: Tiki, Edge, Portis

 

Tier 3: LaMont, Rudi, S-Jax (with Ronnie Brown just narrowly missing this tier).

 

Nearly all teams drafting in spots 7, 8, and 9 are taking either Rudi, Lamont, and S-Jax (with the #7 spot almost always taking anyone who falls to them from tier 2, if at all).

 

In our PPR league (1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 FLEX RB/WR, 1 TE, 1 DE, 1 K), I'm ranking them as above (LaMont getting the edge due his high receptions in '05), with Rudi edging S-Jax for consistency (in both performance and coaching) and the sheer fact that Rudi is playing on a better (and very likely higher-scoring) team. At 1.08, I'm hoping for LaMont but planning on Rudi.

 

Anyways, likely 2nd rounders in 14-teamers for the middle picks appear to be coming from K. Jones, J. Lewis, J. Jones, C, Johnson, L. Fitzgerald, T. Holt, M. Harrison, and sometimes R. Moss. Overall, it seems like a lot of WR talent is going in the middle of Round 2. I'm partially attributing to the relative parity of RB talent after the first 12 RB picks or so...

 

(Rudi Johnson actually adds a bit of intrigue for anyone considering taking a WR in the 2nd round. Chad Johnson is sometimes falling to just about the middle of the 2nd round in some drafts, so the Johnson-and-Johnson combo is a real possiblity, though not one I would necessarily advocate. Somewhat lesser potential for a LaMont Jordan/Randy Moss or Steven Jackson/Torry Holt combo, I think.)

 

So, middle-of-the-round drafters, who leads this third tier RB pack in round 1? Anyone lobbying for Ronnie Brown to be included? Who do you likely expect to pair with them in round 2?

 

Personally, I think I'm hoping for a LaMont Jordan/Chad Johnson combo, depending on how it shakes out. Kevin Jones is tempting in the 2nd round, but I'm more inclined to go with Chad Johnson if he falls (and especially if Carson Palmer is healthy as anticipated).

[HilltopperVike 0]

I'm picking 9 and running across this same question. I have Rudi, SJax, Lamont, Ronnie in same group, so for me to try and rank them, I'm using other factors. Strength of rushing schedule, how good their team defense is (have to come back alot and abandon the run?), etc. Based on those factors, I have Ronnie ranked first. It's a gutsy call to take him, but at the same time, his rush. schedule is pretty damn nice this year (based on '05 numbers) and Miami has a fairly good defense. After Ronnie, I would rank them, SJax, Rudi, Lamont.

 

As for 2nd round, I am taking a top tier WR (CJ, Holt, etc) and then grabbing Dunn, Droughns, or Taylor as my 2nd back. I don't like having one of those as my 2nd back, but at the same time, rb's are so damn thin it seems this year.

[Parja 0]

No love for Westbrook?

[kymandolin29 0]

i too pick at 9...i like brown there...and holt at 16 in the 2nd and i hope to get c. taylor also at 33 in the 3rd

and then it looks like a top 13/15 rec...maybe driver at 40 in the 4th?

that viking line looks good and they play gb and det twice

[HilltopperVike 0]

Yea, chester will prob. be there in 3rd round, but it still scares me that we have m.moore as well. I can see childress using both, ala Cowboys this year.

[Ilov80s 0]

Here is my breakdown of these 4 backs

 

- Rudi Johnson is the most reliable option of the 4. The only thing that will stop him from a third consecutive year with 1400 yards and 12 TDs is an injury. If you want the safe pick, then take Rudi. That being said, he lacks upside. Rudi isn't going to explode into the top 5 with a breakout year.

 

- Ronnie Brown is the opposite of Rudi. Its very difficult to put a handicap on his performance. Can a player who has never been a feature back at the pro or college level handle 300 carries in a year? If you average last year's stats into 300 carries then Brown would record 1300 yards and 5 TDs. Still his rare combination of size and speed is intriguing as he has the upside to be a 1500 and 15 guy. He just has not shown that in the NFL yet. Brown is a major gamble and IMO the first round isn't the place to take risks.

 

- SJax has been consistently inconsisteny. Hopefully with the departure of Martz, SJax won't be limited to only 10 carries by the coaching staff. Still, this defense is not any better and will need to lean on the passing game. Jackson will be involved in the passing attack quite a bit which is a major bonus. In terms of rushing, I think Jackson will benefit from a new staff and have a career year...factor in his receving numbers and he has the very real potential to hit 1600 and 14. Now would you rather have a guy who is looking for a career year and 1600/14 or a guy who is looking to pound out his third consecutive year of 1400/12?

 

- Lamont Jordan was my #1 must draft player last year. He turned into a steal at the late 2nd/early 3rd. I am not sure what to make of him this year. Part of me says he is still underrated going in the late first. Part of me wonders how he could possibly repeat on his 05 breakout? He often looked slow and sluggish. I was never impressed with his ability to pick up extra yards after contact. For a runner of his size, I was disappointed with his ability to break tackles. Based on that, I don't see him improving much on his ypc. His TD numbers should remain in the 8-12 area. Now, the reason Jordan made such a storm in 05 was his 900 yards receiving. He is no LT and no Faulk coming out of the backfield so I expect his receiving numbers to take a drastic drop from 900 to 500. That makes Jordan a very safe pick IMO. In the late first you are getting a guy who has displayed the ability to put 2000 yards and 10+ TDs. So even if he has a down year, you should still expect 1500 and 8.

 

My rankings of these 4 backs:

 

1. Jordan

2. Rudi

3. SJax

4. Brown

[truebigdog 0]

My draft is in progress (11 of the 12 in the military, 4 currently in Iraq or Afghanistan, that's why so early, before it's asked) and I had 9th as well. I took Jordan (Jackson went 8th and Johnson 10th) and ended up getting S. Smith with #16. Manning and Brady went back to back at the top of the 2nd, and Owens went at #15.

[HilltopperVike 0]

Rudi has the toughest rushing schedule this year, dead last. Yes, I know, teams change their personnel every year. But my argument is, they don't change it that much. Factor in Palmer might not be ready to go. It all equals possible disaster in my eyes. Hell, teams might just put 8 in the box and not even have to worry about the pass. Lamont is probably a decent pick, but I just don't think of Lamont as a RB stud for some reason. Guess I'll have to look into him more since he will probably be there for me at 9.

[Striker99 0]

I disagree. Lamont should be tier 2. take him

[2the9s 0]

S-Jax

Rudi

L.Jordan

R.Brown

[tabris 1]

I think you take McGahee or Westy in the 2nd. In rounds 3 and 4 look for a combo of the following: DJax, Roy, Wayne, or Driver.

[ajmplaya69 0]

I have the 5 pick in a PPR league and I'm considering taking Lamont over Tiki.

[Cuse9 129]

If you like to gamble...go with Jackson.

 

If you like consistancy...go with Rudi.

 

Personally, I'd go with Jackson...I think he is in an offense that will really utilize him.

[jagermeister 0]

I think you take McGahee or Westy in the 2nd. In rounds 3 and 4 look for a combo of the following: DJax, Roy, Wayne, or Driver.

 

If either Westbrook or McGahee are there in the middle of the 2nd round, they're definitely the pick. However, at least in my 14-team PPR league, they are gonna be long gone before picks 2.06, 2.07, and 2.08. Unless my league gets WR happy earlier than expected, there is almost no chance they make it that far into Round 2.

 

Heck, in a PPR league ADP, Westbrook is coming someone around the 12-14th pick or sooner. The fantasy gods will be deserving of a sacrifice if Westbrook is there when I pick at 2.07.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

Jackson, becasue he plays for the Rams... duhhh

 

Seriously though... as unbiased as I can be. People are down on Jackson because he had some bad games. I do have to say he battled a sternum injury for most of the 2nd half of the season. It doesn't explain it all, but it does explain a lot if you look at his first half numbers vs the 2nd half. Jackson also gave up alot of production, specifically as it relates to a PPR league, to Faulk. Each had 40 receptions. While I would think that Linehan and the Rams will pass less in general... I do think that 50+ receptions for Jackson is not out of the realm of reason.

 

Jordan - He had an incredibly high amount of receptions last year. However, if you watched most of those games.. you would see that those receptions were not productive ones from a real football standpoint. It was about Collins feeling pressure and dumping the ball off for consolation yards. If the Raiders want to improve.. Jordan's receptions will have to go down. They may not improve though, so he could still get the same number of receptions. Another tangent is a hopefully healthy Moss. He would defenitely have cut into a lot of those numbers as well. It still remains to be seen if Gallery can finally live up to expectations, now that he has moved to the left side.

 

Rudi - Very consistent... and very good as a real football player. But in a PPR league.. he just doens't catch enough balls. 23 was his career high last year. The yards and TD's will be there.. but he lacks upside IMO. Also, I really think Perry is a very talented back who has improved with each year.. and that he will be more involved.

[FantasyKing 4]

No love for Westbrook?

 

 

I like the option of going for Westbrook as well (I pick #7 in a PPR league) - only downside is that you are leaving more stud WRs for those guys coming up (who are the guys who have the top RBs) and then not only is your #1 RB worse than theirs, but your #1 WR is also now worse. That 2nd round pick is a huge pick this year.

[RamslovaMartzhata 3]

I forgot to say who I would pair up on the way back in the 2nd round...

 

Westbrook is the only choice I would feel comfortable with as far as RB's are concerned. I just think theere are guys of equal value in the third in a PPR league. I would feel just as comfortable with Dunn, Droughns, Lewis or Taylor in the third in a PPR league as I would JJ, McGahee, or KJ. I would more than likely go WR, unless someone like Westbrook falls that far. I would be more inclined to take CJ, TO, or Harrison with my 2nd pick.

[BringBackBernie 0]

I would go with SJax. He has all the tools and a coach who will committ to the running game.