Full Keeper / Dynasty League Questions - Urgent!

[gator-raiders 0]

Background

 

I play in a full keeper/dynasty fantasy football league. We only draft rookies and the rookie RBs get taken in the first round as the draft is only 18 picks total (first round is 8th place through 4th, second round is 8th through 3rd, and third round is 8th through 2nd - league champ does not get a pick).

 

Prior to the draft, I traded Marvin Harrison, Kevin Jones, Julius Jones, Willie Parker for Larry Fitzgerald, the #2, #5 and #10 overall picks in the rookie draft. Getting younger at my #1 WR and getting Fitz was very important for my long term outlook and I would rather take my chances on two new rookie RBs than having to deal with another disappointing fantasy season out of the Jones boys.

 

And by the way, I also have the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft, from another trade, and of course, I will be selecting Reggie Bush.

 

Question

 

How would you rank the incoming rookie RB class in terms of long-term fantasy potential? Most of the rankings that I have read are for first year impact and I am reading arguments for each of the other four (D. Williams, L. Maroney, L. White & J. Addai) as the RB to follow Bush as the second best keeper prospect.

 

Research

 

Based on the keeper rankings on ESPN, they rank the rookies in the following order (overall keeper ranking in parenthesis): Bush (15), Addai (34), Williams (35), Maroney (36), and White (76).

 

ESPN rated the rookies based on this grading key (1 - Immediate impact player who should start in fantasy leagues in his first NFL season, 2 - Should play well enough to become a standout early in his career. Top keeper and dynasty league prospect, and 3 - Might post quality numbers in his first pro season if he gets the opportunity. Very promising in keeper and dynasty leagues) in the following order:

 

1) Reggie Bush, RB, Saints (1): Will make a fine early third-round pick in keeper leagues. His receiving skills could be the best we have ever seen from a running back in a long time, and will make him an instant fantasy star even if he shares some playing time with Deuce McAllister.

 

2) DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers (2): He'll finally stabilize Carolina's running game. Great vision and natural instincts. Could be a terrific value in the fourth round of yearly leagues.

 

3) Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (2): A versatile performer who should quickly become a valuable part of an explosive offense. Addai could become a very dependable and sometimes outstanding fantasy starter very early in his pro career.

 

4) Laurence Maroney, RB. Patriots (3): Will operate as a relief option for Corey Dillon initially, but could impress if Dillon gets hurt. By his third year, he could be ready to shine as a fantasy starter.

 

5) LenDale White, RB, Titans (3): Could get pressed into needed service as a rookie and has sleeper potential. Eventually, he could be a super source of TD production.

 

 

Based on the keeper rankings on Sporting News, they rank the rookies in the following order: Bush (15), Addai (28 ), Maroney (38 ), Williams (48 ), and White (unranked).

 

Scott Engel from ESPN has the rookie RBs ranked for dynasty league purposes as Bush, Addai, Williams, White, and Maroney.

 

Jeremy Green from ESPN has them ranked as Bush, Addai, Williams, Maroney, and White.

 

Scott Wright from NFL Draft Countdown has the following opinions:

 

1) Bush #1 and White #5, who could bust out this year but who also could be a major bust as well. It gets real tricky with the next group at 2-4, and in terms of impact this year I'd put them Addai, Williams and Maroney. However if you are thinking about 2007 or even 2008 I think I might put Maroney #2 and then have Williams and Addai as a toss-up. I'm just not a fan of Addai because he wasn't overly productive in college, battled injuries and only went as high as he did because of great workouts. Obviously he's in a tremendous situation though (i.e. Colts high octane offense). With Maroney, two great talent evaluators, Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick, both love the guy so I think that carries a lot of weight. I'm actually is somewhat of a similar situation and trying to decide if I should take Maroney and stash him for a year even though it might hurt me in the short-run.

 

2) In response to my higher ranking for Williams, I do like DeAngelo Williams better and had him rated higher as a prospect but I'm not sure as to how well he'll fit in the Panthers style of offense. Not if you're in a yardage league it probably won't be much of a concern but if touchdowns are weighted heavily Williams isn't going to get much of that action for Carolina. I don't think Williams will get the goalline carries and he isn't the type of running back they have traditionally had in that offense. Basically from a fantasy standpoint I think situation is almost as big of a factor as talent and while I think Williams is the superior player Maroney is has a better set of circumstances.

 

3) If you want immediate impact then Addai if probably your guy, but if you're willing to wait for the big payoff I think Maroney is the way to go. DeAngelo Williams probably falls right in between.

 

My Analysis

 

First, ranking the rookie RBs one through five, I think it is a given that Bush is #1 and fair to place White as the #5.

 

As I am already taking Bush at #1, my dilemma is who to take at #2. More on the #5 later.

 

For Williams, the pluses are that many consider him to be the second best rookie RB behind Bush. Engel compares him to Terrell Davis. The minuses are that he got injured in college, although he came back strong and he logged a lot of carries in college. The one minus that sticks in my mind is what I have read about the situation in Carolina. Coach Fox and the Offensive Coordinator favor veterans, i.e. Foster, and Carolina gave Foster a huge contract to keep him. Now, we all know Foster cannot stay healthy for an entire season, but some say that if Foster got injured and returned, then Carolina would play Foster again just like Carolina played Stephen Davis when he returned to the line-up. So will that be a consistent problem for the long-term outlook for Williams? Will Williams have to contend with Foster in the starting line-up each season? What about the fit of Williams in the Carolina system like Scott Wright said?

 

For Addai, the pluses are that he went to the Colts and their high-powered offense; he is already picking it up well; and he should beat out Rhodes and be the starting RB, although a RB by committee situation is possible there. The minuses are that he was not the Colts first choice and he was not the college superstar that the other rookie RBs were and might just be a combine workout warrior.

 

For Maroney, the pluses are that he was a college superstar like Williams; he was the RB the Colts wanted; he was rated the best back by Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick, and he was taken by the Patriots and will be replacing Dillon soon. The minuses are that he is not as good a back as Williams and he is not in the high octane offense like Addai is.

 

My initial feeling was to take Addai at #2, but his one year wonder at LSU and his combine status have me concerned.

 

So for me, the question is do I take Williams or Maroney at #2 overall?

 

I think looking at my dynasty league’s rookie draft, I think it will go like this:

 

1) Bush - obviously, I am taking him first.

 

2) Williams or Maroney (or Addai) – I am leaning towards Maroney at the moment.

 

3) Williams

 

4) Addai – I would love for the team picking at #3 and #4 to take White so either Williams or Addai would fall to me at #5, but I don’t see that happening.

 

5) White

 

Second Question – Next Year

 

I have the opportunity to trade out of the #5 overall this year, which would be White. In return, I would better my chances for getting the #2 overall pick next year. By a prior trade made almost four years ago, I am almost certain to get the #1 overall pick next year, which will be Adrian Peterson. The team to whom I would trade the #5 should finish at the bottom of our league, which would give me the #2 overall pick next year, which will be Michael Bush.

 

So looking forward to next year, would you trade out of the #5 overall rookie RB this year (which looks like it will be White - assuming a drop off in long-term value as compared to the other rookie RBs above #5) to solidify your chances to take the top two rookie RBs next year, being Adrian Peterson and Michael Bush, who are even better than this year's class, besides maybe Bush?

 

Thanks

 

I want to thank you all so very much for reading my entire topic and providing me with your advice. I really do appreciate your insight. My draft is only one week away so this is very important to me. Thanks again.

[J-Money 4]

I personally would rank this years class as Bush, Williams, Maroney, Addai, White. Dominic Rhodes is a 1000 yd runner who's proven he can play, granted they might not have total faith in him (that's why they drafted addai), but rhodes could play a lot this year, especially if addai can't pick up the blocks.

 

As for trading #5 this year for a first rounder next year, what would the guys roster look like? How sure would you be that he is going to end up with the #2 overall?

[Cuse9 128]

I'll be honest....I didn't read the whole post....way too long for me.

 

I say this:

 

Bush obviously #1.

 

2--Joe Addai...likely aire to Edgerrin.

3--DeAngelo Williams....Could be stellar in a few years

4--Laurence Maroney...two years away.

5--Mike Bell...the famous one right now.

6--LenDale White...not a big fan....no work ethic, that doesn't bode well in NFL.

 

I really like Lienart for the future...great potentil there!

 

wr's....look for Malcom Floyd....the kid has great talent!

[gator-raiders 0]

up.

 

thanks for the replies.

 

please keep them coming folks.

 

and sorry about the long post, but i wanted to provide you all with the research i had done with respect to all the rookie rbs.

[gator-raiders 0]

up

[epinindy 0]

Bush would be considered #1 by most.

 

Addai has the most potential to blow up and have the huge year both this year and for years to come due to the team he is on.

 

Williams is a high quality back that will be solid for years to come.

 

See Williams for Maroney. Love the potential.

 

Here's where I throw you for a loop:

 

Long term:

 

Addai will put up better FF numbers than any of these guys including Bush.

 

1. Addai

2. Bush

3. Williams

4. Maroney

5. White

[gator-raiders 0]

Thanks for the response.

 

Do you really think Addai is the real deal as a RB, worthy of the Colts first round pick and heir apparent to Edge, or was he just the best RB the Colts could get?

 

Please keep the advice coming people.

 

Thanks.

[Mimo 0]

This is the order I have them...............LONG-TERM

 

Williams

Bush

Addai

Maroney

White

 

TFAM

[RogueDeadguy 0]

My rankings (take with a grain of salt):

 

1- Williams - Foster is fragile, Williams is electric, with great passing options they'll want to run the ball more to keep those options open.

2- Addai - Real deal.. most polls have him in the top 15 RBs and Rhodes far behind

3- Bush - I'm not convinced that New Orleans is the right fit, plus Deuce will likely get more goal line touches.

4- Maroney

5- White

 

Agree that you should look at Mike Bell too.. definitely an interesting rookie option

[RollingThunder 0]

In overall value I would rank em

Bush

Maroney

Addai

 

Unless you are hoping for a starter right away then I would go

Bush

Addai

Maroney

 

In my view the others are not good value #1 picks(course this could be me looking at it from the view of how our league works where our free agents are included in the draft)I kind of lump them all together, though White does seem to have a chance if he can make anything of it.However, top 3 I listed seem to have solid chance and talent to be studs in 1 to 3 years.

 

So I say yes if its rbs you covet I would certainly entertain trading out of #5, though there are some nice qbs to consider this year as well not too mention if you can trade down a few spots it might be good year to grab a rookie te.

[Ron_Mexico 0]

1. Bush

1A. Maroney (I think he will be a star in the Patriots system)

 

3. D.Williams

4. LenDale White (If his work ethic improves)

5. Addai

 

 

plz see...

 

http://www.fftodayforums.com/forum/index.p...howtopic=219663

 

thanks.

[gator-raiders 0]

up

 

please keep the advice coming.

 

thanks

[sportsfreek18 0]

i'd say probably

 

1. Williams

2. Addai

3. Maroney

4. White

5. Brian Calhoun

[gator-raiders 0]

up.

 

please keep the advice coming.

 

thanks everyone

[gator-raiders 0]

Please keep the advice coming.

 

Here is what I am getting on responses to the same question on multiple forums . . .

 

D. Williams: +'s are best back, powerful, will be next T. Dorsett.

-'s are not right fit for Carolina, will be bust.

 

Addai: +'s are quick, in the right system so will explode.

-'s are that injury prone, not proven.

 

Maroney: +'s are Shanahan's favorite, best talent not named Bush.

-'s are that cannot run inside.

 

So please keep the advice coming as people are making arguments (convincing I might add) to choose any one of those three at #2 overall in the rookie draft for my full keeper / dynasty league.

 

Thanks so much everyone.

[Wildman 0]

Please keep the advice coming.

 

Here is what I am getting on responses to the same question on multiple forums . . .

 

D. Williams: +'s are best back, powerful, will be next T. Dorsett.

-'s are not right fit for Carolina, will be bust. Powerful for his size, but not a power back. He's a feature back in the mold of Dorsett--an all around player, not a power guy. Hit the hole, accerlate and do damage in the open field.

 

Addai: +'s are quick, in the right system so will explode.

-'s are that injury prone, not proven.Great blocker, receiver. One bad injury before college, that's it

 

Maroney: +'s are Shanahan's favorite, best talent not named Bush.

-'s are that cannot run inside.He can run inside, he's just doesn't use his power consistently to attack and finish runs as he should

 

So please keep the advice coming as people are making arguments (convincing I might add) to choose any one of those three at #2 overall in the rookie draft for my full keeper / dynasty league.

 

Thanks so much everyone.

[manola 0]

I'd Rank Them:

 

#1. Bush

#2. Joe Addai

#3. LenDale White - I think he has a chance to become an impact player early and for years to come.

#4. DeAngelo Williams

#5. Laurence Maroney - Likely won't do much until next year...possibly even the year after.

 

I also think Jay Cutler can be huge in a year or two. Should be able to throw to Javon Walker for years to come!

[gator-raiders 0]

up.

 

please keep the advice coming.

 

thanks.

[gator-raiders 0]

please keep the advice coming folks.

 

i will keep answering your questions if you answer mine.

 

thanks so much

[boogaloobboy 0]

My answer is...........who the hell plays in eight man dynasty leagues?

[gator-raiders 0]

well boogs, when you have been playing with the same guys for almost 10 years now, it is hard to keep the same group together. it is a lot easier with 8 teams. and are rules keep it very competitive.

 

but i would appreciate more advice to my question people.

 

if you answer my question i will answer yours.

 

thanks.

[gobrownies6 0]

Judging from the length of your original post you have put tons of thought and research into this....so are you really going to base your decision on what a bunch of guys on here say? most of them probably didn't even read the whole thing.

[Bad_Intentions 0]

Crazy league, only drafting rookies?? well I'll say number 1 is between Bush/Williams, the rest is a push, all could easily flourish or not win starting spots b/c their are vets ahead of each guy.

[dvldog 0]

Judging from the length of your original post you have put tons of thought and research into this....so are you really going to base your decision on what a bunch of guys on here say? most of them probably didn't even read the whole thing.

 

How dare you. But you are right. Look at me I'm a rookie in my first dynasty league this year. Been in many redrafts. (anyone care)

 

I did read the entire post but that doesn't make my opinion any better. I can't offer much But I am higher Moroney and less on Addai than others are on this thread. I'm not sure Addai was the 1st on Indy's list and not sure why everyone is high on him except hoping he will be the next Edge. Moroney is also on a good offensive team and IMO less Injury prone. (nobody really knows) I think he will be better at the goalline. Thats my 1 cent.

[enjoi525 0]

what does your team look like right now?