Value Rankings

[buffalo24 0]

Ok I am trying my best to understand the whole value thing but I can't grasp why someone who will get me less FFpts is valued higher than someone who could get me more. I have run a semi mock draft to get used to the program and this is what I've found:

Lets say its the 3rd round, and the overall rankings say I should get Addai at a value of 63.5 yet he will only get me 225 ffpts when I could also draft Jake delhomme who has a fantasy value of -6.4 but could possibly get me 321 ffpts. Now can you explain to me why the draft buddy thinks that Addai is a better pick (along with many def and kickers and such) than a Jake delhomme who should clearly get me more points?

I just want to understand everything about the program heading into the draft and any help would be much appreciated Thanks a lot

Mike Simonsen

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Hi Mike. The value comes down to trade offs. You're right, you can draft Delhomme now (3rd round) and he scores more points than Addai, but since you would still need to either draft a RB later if you draft Delhomme, or a QB later if you draft Addai, then I think if you compare the total points in each scenario you'll be better off with drafting Addai first and a different QB later. Ergo, Addai has a higher value.

 

Value is determined mainly by the difference in fantasy points between each player at their position. There is not a lot of difference between QBs, especially those ranked 7th to 17th which is where Delhomme falls (16th) in the one I'm looking at. There is a more significant difference between RBs, especially considering most leagues draft/start more RBs than QBs.

 

I think the best way to see it is to do an example in Buddy. Use 2 teams and draft a starting team of 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR for each. For one team draft the best player based on FF Pts, in order to fill the positions. For the other team use the overall list based on value, in order to fill the positions. Even though team one might draft a higher fantasy scorer first, compare the total fantasy points at the end of the draft and team 2 should come out ahead.

[DoubleH 0]

Mike Mac I have a few question regarding the Value Rankings topic as well. If I understand your reply the value ranking is a based upon a number of factors including the custom info regarding your league scoring and number of starters. Are there any other major factors behind the value ranking? Like mike Simonsen I am questioning the value ranking recommendation when there are players with a higher fantasy point projection. I will take you up on your suggestion to run a mock draft but was looking for more insight into the ranking.

 

Thanks, Geoff

[Rstein 1]

Mike Mac I have a few question regarding the Value Rankings topic as well. If I understand your reply the value ranking is a based upon a number of factors including the custom info regarding your league scoring and number of starters. Are there any other major factors behind the value ranking? Like mike Simonsen I am questioning the value ranking recommendation when there are players with a higher fantasy point projection. I will take you up on your suggestion to run a mock draft but was looking for more insight into the ranking.

 

Thanks, Geoff

 

Hey Geoff,

 

I'm sure Mike will answer you in more detail as soon as he has a chance. In the meantime, I'll take a stab at helping you by giving you two things:

 

1) The value field is basically taking into account the concept of Opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is a term used in economics to mean the cost of something in terms of an opportunity forgone (and the benefits that could be received from that opportunity), or the most valuable forgone alternative.

 

2) In case that completely confused you or left you scratching your head - read this article by the man, myth, and legend Mike MacGregor - I believe this is the the best way to explain how the value column comes into play. http://www.fftoday.com/articles/macgregor/tiering.htm

 

I hope this helps you out.

 

Rob

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Thanks for the comments Rob. Little over the top on the praise though, no? Much appreciated

 

Mike Mac I have a few question regarding the Value Rankings topic as well. If I understand your reply the value ranking is a based upon a number of factors including the custom info regarding your league scoring and number of starters. Are there any other major factors behind the value ranking? Like mike Simonsen I am questioning the value ranking recommendation when there are players with a higher fantasy point projection. I will take you up on your suggestion to run a mock draft but was looking for more insight into the ranking.

 

Thanks, Geoff

 

Hi DoubleH. The value calcs are influenced by those factors you indicate there. Others? ... the Overall Ranking Method is a major factor, and then if you input any baseline adjustments that will essentially alter the selected overall ranking method. You should read the section of the Help Guide on Overall Ranking Methods, found on this page about halfway down:

 

http://fftoday.com/compiler/hg_compiler_adv.htm

 

Then my suggestion is to go to the Compiler overall rankings, find Peyton Manning and note his fantasy and value points. Then find the QB (Player X) on the overall ranking with value points of 0 (zero). Do Manning's value points equal his fantasy points minus Player X's fantasy points? You should be able to do a similar test for all other QBs comparing their fantasy points with Player X's fantasy points. From reading that section of the Help Guide, and reviewing your settings, do you understand why the Compiler chose Player X as the comparison point?

 

You should be able to do a similar analysis of the other positions. And then, for closure, the way the Compiler works is it mixes all the player together, sorts them by Value points highest to lowest (also taking into consideration the number of players your league needs to draft at each position), to create the overall rankings.

 

Clear as mud?

[The king of crash 0]

Because RBs are hard to come by.

 

There are alot of QBs that will get you over 300 FFP, there for you can get a good one in the 7th round or something.

 

what i'm trying to say is.

 

There are alot of decent QBs(thats why they get drafed later) and there are not alot of RBs(you get them when you have a chance)

[buffalo24 0]

Hey Mike

Thanx for the suggestion. It helped clear things up for me and for anyone else who is confused about this check the 2nd post of this topic and apply. When I ran the mock my Highest ffpts left team had less "total Fantasy points" than the Value team did. It was actually by a wide margin as well. I am pretty sure I understand now and I am going to trust this 14.95 contraption and most definately keep you up to date. Thanx for the quick help as well

Mikey

[Mike MacGregor 20]

LOL at "14.95 contraption"

 

You're not going to make the testimonials page with comments like that , but check back after the season when you're hoisting the trophy

[Mike MacGregor 20]

bump

[GDogg 0]

Ok, I understand the value rankings fine, but I did have a question. Actually, I am more looking for a suggestion from Mike on this.

 

I am in a 10-team first-year keeper league. I am obviously going to downgrade a few players that I might otherwise draft highly in a redraft (Tiki). Our league has 15 rounds with rosters that include 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex (RB/WR only), 1 TE, 1 K and 1 Def. Thus, we have 6 bench spots, which can be allocated as you please.

 

I read the FAQ's thread, but I wasn't sure if you wanted to keep that clean, so I am not posting this in that thread.

 

Now, I want to draft a minimum of 6 RB's and possibly 7. I would like to draft 3-4 WR's, unless I am absolutely blown away by value, because I can start 3 RB's. I honestly am not sure what to expect from my league-mates in terms of what their target rosters will look like.

 

So, when I put in 4 RB's as backups, and 1 WR as backup (keeping in mind the Flex spot), my value rankings are borderline ridiculous. Out of the first 30 or so picks, I think 1 is a non-RB - Manning. Now, like I said, I want plenty of RB's, but I don't really expect everyone in my league to draft the same, and I'd like some reasonable values, whether or not I follow them. For an example of this insanity, Chris Perry is more valuable than Roy Williams (WR) with these settings. That's obviously a problem.

 

Anyway, Mike would you mind giving me a suggestion for what might be a more reasonable yield of value rankings, keeping in mind the above. I tried dropping one RB off (2 starters + 3 backups) and then adding that to WR (2 starters + 2 backups), but I didn't get a desired result, either, although it was much more reasonable than the previous allocations.

 

Thanks in advance!

[zhinz 0]

It's best to make your backup settings match what other players are going to do. The closer you get to that, the more realistic the values are going to be. I would say with 6 backups, the most common configuration would be QB, 2/3 RBs, 2/3 WRs, and possibly a TE. Note that you can use decimals. So if most teams don't have a backup TE, you can go 1 QB, 2.5 RBs, and 2.5 WRs. If teams do take backup TEs then I would go with 1/2/2/1 instead, or maybe 1/2.25/2.25/.5 .

[Mike MacGregor 20]

Good suggestions Zac.

 

Something else you might want to try GDogg is change the overall ranking method from Compiler Recommended to Median Player Drafted, which will take out some of the bias to RB and away from QB/WR. See if that gives what looks like a more reasonable overall list.

[2bmayhem 1]

Mike,

 

I find it interesting in our basic performance league that defenses place very high in "value" with DB.

 

The bears are 10th overall, and Jacksonville at 18th.

 

Our league is run on CBS, and we give Defensive performance points for sacks, fumble recoverys, int, etc. It is also setup with a descending points structure based on yards against, and points against. Basically we start the week with 20 points, and go down from there as scoring and yardage accumulates. Starting roster 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1Def

 

We collectively giggled last year when a guy drafted the bears defense in the fifth round, but he did go on to win the championship (He's a Bear's homer). His roster included dealing with the TO implosion.

 

We draft sixteen rounds and I can't fathom picking a defense up earlier than than the sixth round. What are your thoughts on defenses placed so high in vlaue overall? I was certainly going to move my defensive selections in front of TE's and perhaps #3 RB/WR this year, but in front of #2 RBs, WRs, and QBs?

 

[Mike MacGregor 20]

I'd go with your instinct - not higher than the 1st round. While the Compiler generates what I like to cal the "true value" based on projections, we know some positions are more unpredictable than others. The Compiler Recommended adjustments should be accounting for this, but they aren't enough in this case obviously. Also, true value does not mean that is where you should absolutely draft a player/defense. If you can get them later, then get them later. Probably the best way to approach team defense is, if you have 3-4 very top defenses that you want (and are likely to get selected 1 through 4 in the draft), then wait until the 1st or 2nd are gone, and try to get your 3rd choice. Failing that, wait until 6-8 are off the board and judge appropriately so you are getting the best value. Follow the tiers. That will ultimately give you the best draft results.

[GDogg 0]

Just an update (not that you guys really care), but I made the tweaks that zhinz and Mike suggested to the Buddy.

 

I drafted on Saturday and I must say that the Buddy and I were hitting on all cylinders. I decided to go with the 7 RB/3 WR spread that I alluded to above and ended up with 3 unquestioned starters and 4 that are probably in RBBC (including Reggie Bush, although I treat him as the starter).

 

Based off the Summary Tab, my team is the strongest top to bottom and my starters are 2nd by 4 points (based off drafting Alexander instead of LJ).

 

Thanks for all the help in setting the variables and thanks to Mike for creating such a wonderful tool. By the way, coupling the Buddy/VBD method with keeping a very close eye on tiers got me a draft where I don't think I made a single bad or even questionable pick.

 

The season hasn't started yet, but as long as stay on top of the wire, I think I am in fantastic shape.

 

Thanks again!