$5,000 CC/DB Survivor Pool

[Mike MacGregor]

I can't win the cash of course, but I'm going with New England over Buffalo. Schedule:

 

WEEK 1 (All times EST) 

THURSDAY, SEP. 7th
 Miami at Pittsburgh 8:30 p.m. 

SUNDAY, SEP. 10th
 Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 p.m.
 Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m.
 Buffalo at New England, 1:00 p.m.
 Cincinnati at Kansas City, 1:00 p.m.
 Denver at St. Louis, 1:00 p.m.
 New Orleans at Cleveland, 1:00 p.m.
 N.Y. Jets at Tennessee, 1:00 p.m.
 Philadelphia at Houston, 1:00 p.m.
 Seattle at Detroit, 1:00 p.m.
 Chicago at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m.
 Dallas at Jacksonville, 4:15 p.m.
 San Francisco at Arizona, 4:15 p.m.
 Indianapolis at N.Y. Giants, 8:15

MONDAY, SEP. 11th
 Minnesota at Washington 7:00 p.m.
 San Diego at Oakland, 10:15 p.m.

 

I like Philly okay but hate picking a road team, especially week 1. Arizona is a possibility but does anyone really want to trust 'Zona out of the gate?

 

Some very tough games in this first week.

[k9tofive]

Miami is tempting with Big Ben out, but I will take SD and their 5-0 record against OAK in the last 5, including 3 wins in Oakland.

[Mike FF Today]

Can I win? I'll take the Chiefs!

[Blaneyfan]

I took NE over Buffalo too.

 

Cheers

[Mike MacGregor]

Can I win? I'll take the Chiefs!

 

No.

 

While the Chiefs should win at home, the Bengals are a bit of a scary team to face to open the season. Marvin Lewis had that defense fired up last year to open the season like nobody's business. We'll see if can do the same this time around.

 

Miami is tempting with Big Ben out, but I will take SD and their 5-0 record against OAK in the last 5, including 3 wins in Oakland.

 

Showing good faith in Rivers. I hope you're right. I'd like to see him start off well.

 

I took NE over Buffalo too.

 

Ben Watson - 2 TDs?

[Blaneyfan]

Hopefully!

I scooped him up pretty late in a couple early drafts. He hasn't fell to me in the last couple drafts though.

 

Cheers

[The_Mad_Cats]

Went with Arizona. I like the extra motivation of opening their new house with a win. When else are you going to pick them this year?

[johnwayne]

We went with Arizona also. Might be their best chance for a win.

Is there a link to the Survivor page on the Home page? I had to pull it from an old email.

[Mike MacGregor]

We went with Arizona also. Might be their best chance for a win.

Is there a link to the Survivor page on the Home page? I had to pull it from an old email.

 

Hi JW. It is on the home page in the second column of features. Also the link is in my signature.

[Mike MacGregor]

As tough as week 1 is, I wouldn't have touched last night's game. That didn't stop 21 from picking Pittsburgh but also 17 from backing Miami. It was looking good for Miami for a while there, but now it is to the for those guys. Don't worry, that bench is going to fill up soon. Results are updated.

[mtammen]

ARI.

[mosslong]

took the Jets.Pennington over Kerry

[Mike MacGregor]

took the Jets.Pennington over Kerry

 

Whoa. Both teams are bad. I agree I think the Jets will win, but Chris Brown is pretty darn good so I didn't give a lot of consideration to that game.

[Rajendra33]

Whoa. Both teams are bad. I agree I think the Jets will win, but Chris Brown is pretty darn good so I didn't give a lot of consideration to that game.

 

Jets is a risky pick for week 1.

 

I am going with Arizona. Was contemplating Carolina, but Steve Smith is out and I can save them for later.

[dbergan]

As long as Brett I-should-be-in-a-nursing-home Favre is starting, picking the team who plays Green Bay is a sound bet.

[Q.Lazzarus]

Took Arizona this week. I can taste that 5K already. Mmmmm.

[Mike MacGregor]

Took Arizona this week. I can taste that 5K already. Mmmmm.

 

Still a long way to go Q. Don't go spending it just yet

[dbergan]

Hi Mike,

 

Is there any way to quickly see how many people took each team in week 1? I mean I could go through the 13 pages and tally up all the Ari, Sea, etc checks one-by-one... but obviously you have this backed up by a database that could give stats a lot more quickly. Adding that to the "contest stats" page would be cool. I just want to see how many other people took a safe pick like Ari Vs a riskier one like Ind or Bal. Were there any games this week that didn't have picks? Which had the fewest? Which loss upset the most survivor contestants?

 

Kind regards,

David

[Mike MacGregor]

Hi Mike,

 

Is there any way to quickly see how many people took each team in week 1? I mean I could go through the 13 pages and tally up all the Ari, Sea, etc checks one-by-one... but obviously you have this backed up by a database that could give stats a lot more quickly. Adding that to the "contest stats" page would be cool. I just want to see how many other people took a safe pick like Ari Vs a riskier one like Ind or Bal. Were there any games this week that didn't have picks? Which had the fewest? Which loss upset the most survivor contestants?

 

Kind regards,

David

 

Hey Dave. The teams and results will appear on the Contest Stats page after all of week 1 is over. I'll have to see if I can get that to work earlier, but I think I was having trouble with it showing picks before the deadline when I tried that before.

[dbergan]

Hey Dave. The teams and results will appear on the Contest Stats page after all of week 1 is over. I'll have to see if I can get that to work earlier, but I think I was having trouble with it showing picks before the deadline when I tried that before.

 

 

Sweet. From one programmer to another: You rule.

[Mike MacGregor]

Hey, I just did some testing, and I worked it out so I can turn the deadline over to week 2 but people who picked tonight still cannot chnage their pick. See here for the stats from week 1:

 

http://www.fftoday.com/contests/survivor.php?o=3

 

31 of the 32 teams were chosen at least once. All except ... Green Bay.

[dbergan]

Hey, I just did some testing, and I worked it out so I can turn the deadline over to week 2 but people who picked tonight still cannot chnage their pick. See here for the stats from week 1:

 

http://www.fftoday.com/contests/survivor.php?o=3

 

31 of the 32 teams were chosen at least once. All except ... Green Bay.

 

Looks like Arizona was the safe pick that advanced 1/4 of the participants... which the betting odds confirmed in advance (10 point spread, I think). The three shut-outers, while demonstrating monster ability on the field only convinced 2 (Bal), 87 (Chi), and 58 (SD) fans prior to the game. Titans (86), Browns (72), and Panthers (65) were the biggest upsets. I can understand the Titans and the Panthers... but who would ever take the Browns? With 17 weeks, we get 17 unique picks... meaning that you never touch 15 teams. How can the Browns NOT be one of those 15 avoid-at-all-costs teams? Well, I suppose I shouldn't expect much from a pool that picks the 49ers 3 times as much as the shut-out Ravens.

 

It would be cool if you could line the scores up by the games they played rather than alphabetically... shows which games people decided to choose on vs which ones they thought were too risky. Shows the upsets more clearly that way, too. It would throw a wrench in your 8-week table, though... so maybe make up a separate php page that shows them head to head and link the "Wk 1" phrase of your table to this other page...

 

Anyway...

 

Kind regards,

David

[Mike MacGregor]

Not sure what you mean Dave. What if we just made the stats table sortable, so you could sort it by team name, or number of picks each week highest to lowest?

[gummo_dude]

Too bad the pats came back and won. That would have gotten rid of a good chunk of competition lol

[dbergan]

Not sure what you mean Dave. What if we just made the stats table sortable, so you could sort it by team name, or number of picks each week highest to lowest?

 

That would be cool, too, but what I was talking about is linking the "Wk1" at the top of the table to something like this.

[Mike MacGregor]

That would be cool, too, but what I was talking about is linking the "Wk1" at the top of the table to something like this.

 

That is neat. Maybe I should send you the code and you can program it?

[dbergan]

That is neat. Maybe I should send you the code and you can program it?

 

Sure.

[domePatrol]

Week 2 is upon us. Who else is picking Baltimore?

[dbergan]

Week 2 is upon us. Who else is picking Baltimore?

 

Lots of good ones this week...

Baltimore became my pick, but Cincinnati, Chicago, Indianapolis, Denver, and San Diego were all serious contenders. I smell shut-out #2 for the Waiders with about 300 sacks.

[Mike MacGregor]

I'm on Indy right now, but Baltimore is very appealing. Rod Woodson on NFL Network is already calling for 3 straight shutouts for his former team. I hate thinking about saving teams, but really, Indy is I think a better "save" than the Ravens.

 

Sure.

 

Sorry Dave. Been a bit of a crazy day. I'll send you the code to look and see what you can come up with.

[Mike MacGregor]

We lost 230 in week 2, 146 of which were Arizona picks and I believe every one of those was a default pick. You have to get your picks in folks. Anyone who happened to pick Arizona in week 1 but didn't pick in week 2 by the deadline ended up with Atlanta as their default, and that worked out well enough.

 

Still waiting for that big upset no one is expecting, but so far we've come through the opening weeks pretty clean. Week 3 looks considerably tougher than 2 though. Here is the schedule:

 

WEEK 3 (All times EST)

 

SUNDAY, SEP. 24th

Carolina at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.

Chicago at Minnesota 1:00 p.m.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh 1:00 p.m.

Green Bay at Detroit 1:00 p.m.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis 1:00 p.m.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo 1:00 p.m.

Tennessee at Miami 1:00 p.m.

Washington at Houston 1:00 p.m.

Baltimore at Cleveland 4:05 p.m.

N.Y. Giants at Seattle 4:15 p.m.

Philadelphia at San Francisco 4:15 p.m.

St. Louis at Arizona 4:15 p.m.

Denver at New England 8:15 p.m

 

MONDAY, SEP. 25th

Atlanta at New Orleans 8:30 p.m.

 

Wow, that Carolina-Tampa game should be some desperate football. I know they are 0-2 but I'm inclined to lean towards Miami for my survivor pick.

[dbergan]

I'm regretting my Baltimore pick in week 2... the Ravens look like one of the few favorable matchups. Even my "pick the team that plays against Green Bay or Oakland" rule doesn't help, since they play Detroit and bye.

 

Well, let's try the old-fashioned process of elimination.

 

Carolina (0-2) at Tampa Bay (0-2) - Divisional game, and I don't know which team is hungrier...

Chicago (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0) - Divisional game, Chicago has about a 50% chance of winning this one

Cincinnati (2-0) at Pittsburgh (1-0) - Divisional game, Carson and company vs Super Bowl champs

Green Bay (0-2) at Detroit (0-2) - Divisional game, chumpfest... do you trust Favre? do you trust a Roy Williams guarantee?

N.Y. Jets (1-1) at Buffalo (1-1) - Divisional game, two teams that should be 0-2

Tennessee (0-2) at Miami (0-2) - Pick the team that lost to Buffalo, or the team that lost to the Jets?

Baltimore (2-0) at Cleveland (0-2) - Who didn't use their Baltimore pick in week 2?

N.Y. Giants (1-1) at Seattle (2-0) - In week 1, Seattle beat Detroit by the skin of their teeth... does that give you any confidence in them beating the Giants?

St. Louis (1-1) at Arizona (1-1) - Who didn't use Zona in week 1? Who's going to rely on Jeff Wilkins to kick them another win?

Denver (1-1) at New England (2-0) - RB by committee Vs WR by committee

 

Ok, so who's left?

 

Jacksonville (1-0) at Indianapolis (2-0) - Divisional game, use the Indy pick this week?

Atlanta (2-0) at New Orleans (2-0) - Divisional game. Crazy offense Vs Crazy offense. No defense Vs No defense. Who's the better rusher, Vick or Bush?

Philadelphia (1-1) at San Francisco (1-1) - Normally a good pick, but in week 2 Philadelphia shouldn't have lost, and SF shouldn't have won.

Washington (0-2) at Houston (0-2) - Sadly, this looks like the most confident pick... how's Portis looking?

[domePatrol]

I toyed with the idea of picking the Jets over Buffalo. I feel like the win by Buffalo was much more about how bad Culpepper is and not how good Buffalo is. I still might make this pick in fact, but right now I'm seeing smart money on Philadelphia. Obivously this assumes Baltimore is gone. I think the 49ers are getting better, but they really aren't of the good teams.

[Blaneyfan]

This week is tough and I'm betting we lose quite a few. I wanted to take Baltimore week 2 but knew this was the week to use them, against Cleveland, when not many other options look as favourable. I thought the Bears over the Lions in week 2 was fairly safe.

 

Hopefully this isn't that "Upset" that is eventually going to happen. lol

 

Cheers

[Meek]

Here's a couple of 0-2 picks that I think are reasonable for this Survivor pool: Detroit and Miami. Of course, I'm deferring to two sources that are more informed than I am, Vegas and CBS Sportsline

 

Detroit because of this

Sportsline Picks

5/6 of the experts went with Detroit.

 

Miami because they have the biggest point spread at -11.0

 

or maybe I'm just making my first post on here to confuse others . . .

[jaski111]

I'm regretting my Baltimore pick in week 2... the Ravens look like one of the few favorable matchups. Even my "pick the team that plays against Green Bay or Oakland" rule doesn't help, since they play Detroit and bye.

 

[s]Carolina (0-2) at Tampa Bay (0-2)[/s] - Divisional game, and I don't know which team is hungrier...

 

Ok, so who's left?

 

Atlanta (2-0) at New Orleans (2-0) - Divisional game. Crazy offense Vs Crazy offense. No defense Vs No defense. Who's the better rusher, Vick or Bush?

 

Washington (0-2) at Houston (0-2) - Sadly, this looks like the most confident pick... how's Portis looking?

 

Hey DB, i dont want you to think i am throwing you under the bus or anything, but i am just curious on some of your logic... B-More was a great pick last week... Besides playing Clevland twice, their schedule is BRUTAL!!! And your Atl vs NO is way off base... NO has play Clev & GB and barely survived both of them, and Atlanta has dominated both CAR and TB, holding Car to 6 points with 65yds rushing, and TB to 3 points with 40yds rushing... Most of both teams passing yards were in the garbage time. Oh and BTW... Houston is better than you think and Washington isnt as good as they should be... thats what happens when you have Brunell as your QB (that game is could be a SNAKE BITE).... Look closer at the CAR vs TB game... CAR is like 3-0 in the last 3 meating in TB and Steve Smith should be back... Also Tampa is not very good... Simms was one of my sleapers this year and Boy was i way off on that one, Cadilac is beat up and still not 100%... Also Car schedule is a bit harder that Miami's and Atlanta's, I like Carolina To win big! ~Jason

[Mike MacGregor]

Thanks to dbergan for suggesting and helping out create a new stats view for the contest. Go to the contest stats page at the bottom, where you'll see all the picks organized by game, with links to each week of the contest. Pretty neat. It shows how many people are on either side of a game.

[dbergan]

Thanks to dbergan for suggesting and helping out create a new stats view for the contest. Go to the contest stats page at the bottom, where you'll see all the picks organized by game, with links to each week of the contest. Pretty neat. It shows how many people are on either side of a game.

 

Looks great. Even better than what I had in mind. That's really cool.

[Mike MacGregor]

Looks great. Even better than what I had in mind. That's really cool.

 

Good idea

[dbergan]

Whew. Dodged the bullet. Barely. I ended up taking the Bears.