decisions decisions

[Journeymen 0]

Well, in the black hole that is the first week of the NFL season, I find myself in a slight quandary. Looking for input, though I think I have my decision settled.

 

First, I have Steve Smith. I've decided that if he is ruled inactive, he's benched, obviously. If reports come in somewhat early that he'll suit up and play, he'll stay in. If it gets close to crunch time and still nothing, I'm benching him. I have Hines Ward already with some decent numbers and Pittsburgh's DST with a good night, so I'm in fairly comfortable shape for the two slots that have already played. I also have Donte Stallworth going at my 2nd receiver spot and Ben Watson at TE to help out. We start 3 receivers and I've been waffling between Eric Moulds or Greg Jennings to fill in in the (likely) situation that Smith doesn't play. (I give him a 10% chance to play...)

 

In that case, I'm going with Moulds. Considering that Favre had no TDs and 6 ints vs. Chicago last year in two games, I don't see him performing very well. Moulds faces a Philly D that was in the bottom part of the league in passing yards allowed and TDs allowed. I'm (mostly) comfortable with him in there as a #3.

 

But the big decision is that starting alongside Rudi Johnson I have the choice of

a) Mike Bell vs. St. Louis who gave up over 2200 yards last year on the ground and 22 TDs, but will split time with Tatum Bell

Frank Gore vs. Arizona, a team that isn't all that strong defensively, but only gave up about 1600 yards last year (though the same number of TDs)

c) Jamal Lewis vs Tampa Bay. Jamal's sitting. Rust + hip issues + Tampa Bay = not a good day. 40 yards...maybe

 

The issue I have with the Gore/Bell question is, if SF gets behind big or early, are they going to stick with the run game? If it's close or SF can execute, Gore could see 25+ carries easily. If not, he might see 10 and a long day.

But then there's Denver, which is Denver. I see that game as more competitive with both Bells in the neighborhood of 15 carries.

 

For now, I have my lineup set as

QB Eli

RB Rudi

RB MBell

WR Ward (16 points in our league)

WR Stallworth

WR Moulds

TE Watson

K J. Brown

DST Pitt (13 points)

 

Just more confident in St. Louis/Denver being closer and more favorable to more carries for both Denver backs.

 

Anybody else in similar situations, and if so, how are you viewing things?

[Melvinbet 5]

I'm leaning towards starting T. Jones over Gore however I also have M. Bell and feel that Gore would be a better choice if I didn't have Jones. I really didn't even consider M. Bell for my #2 RB. I want to see how much of the load he carries first.

 

Check mine out and you'll see what I mean

[Journeymen 0]

Yeah, that's where I've been all week with Mike Bell. Wait and see.

I'm switching it to Gore and going to bed. If he was my pick earlier, and nothing significant has changed...go with the first decision and ride it out.

Their preseason stats were almost identical. Few more carries for Bell, but very similar ypc. That might say more about Gore's ability/prominence in his offense than Bell's potential at this point in the season. Five yards per carry on the 49ers? Yeah it's preseason, but it's still the Niners.