Choosing Defensive Matchups

[tt1010 0]

Last year I decided I wouldn't ride one defense all year but I'd attempt to play favorable defensive matchups all year long. I stunk at it.

 

And this year doesn't look much better. Last week I chose Buffalo. Yay - 1 point. The week before was SD. I think you see my point.

 

I analyze stats and individual player matchups. I take into account who's playing at home. I attempt to size up the decision in as many ways as possible. It never seems to work out for me.

 

This week I'm looking at:

 

Cleveland

Miami

Minnesota

 

in that order.

 

What methods do players use to determine defensive matchups? How do managers figure out which defense is going to perform well in any given week? Are there certain tricks or indicators?

 

By the way, my league gives 2 points for Int/Fum and 1 point per sack. 10 points for shutout and 6 points for a TD. KR and PR for TDs count too. So it's very turnover/TD heavy - shutouts are rare.

 

Any help is appreciated.

[nicewolf64 0]

I'd take CLEV against that horrible OAK offense with a second string QB.

[www.kyleortonfans.com 0]

I was looking at these matchups, also. I picked Minnesota. They have only given up 1 passing TD and should have had another 3 INTs vs. Chicago last week. I'll take my chances with them. Plus, they play Detroit at home next week.

[omarkal 0]

Just dropped Jets D, and picked up Cowboys D off the ww. Going to start them vs Tenn.

[j0novision 0]

Regarding strategy. This year I'm trying to go with a more statistical approach to choosing my Def. I have a spreadsheet to track how much each team gives up in points in each week and to what team. So, for example, I have OAK at the top, giving up an average of 24 fantasy points (using my leagues settings) each week, not including last week's BYE. This week they play Cleveland. However, using the same spreadsheet we see that CLE has scored 5 and 7 points against NO and CIN respectively.

 

So using this approach, each week I find the 5 best matchups of points given up and DEF points scored, and if it seems better than Jacksonville's matchup and points scored (since they are the DEF I have on my team permanently [hopefully]), I pick up the free agent and play them.

 

So this goes entirely based off of the points that are scored in your league settings, which always seems a better indicator to me than other things. Since you can always research more into the inidividual defensive players, or look into how everyone does at home and on grass or with a backup center or what not, I choose to simply cut my thinking off at the numbers. Home vs. Away seems like a good addition to make to my setup here though, not that you've got me thinking.

 

So, using the numbers:

 

Cleveland scored 5(NO), 7(CIN) and is playing Oakland who has given up 21(SD), 27(BAL)

Miami has scored 5(PIT), 3(BUF), 12(TEN) and is playing Houston who has given up 9(PHI), 8(IND) and 6(WAS)

Minnesota has scored 1(WAS), 8(CAR), 12(CHI) and is playing Buffalo who has given up 9(NE), 3(MIA), 16(NYJ)

 

I'd go with Minnesota. Would I play them over Jacksonville this week?

 

Jacksonville has scored 9(DAL), 16(PIT), 2(IND) and is playing Washington who has given up 1(MIN), 12(DAL), 1(HOU)

 

Quite possibly, but that's for me to decide

 

Jon

[tt1010 0]

Thanks for the input everyone - it certainly helps.

 

Jon - that's a great way to identify potential matchups. The more statistics/numbers I can throw into the equation, the better, and I really like your way. Thanks for the info.