McGahee's schedule in '07

[Larry David 20]

So I just took a look at the Ravens' 2007 schedule and I'm a lot more excited about McGahee's fantasy value next year. In my league, the three teams that gave up the most RB points in 2006 were 1) Indy 2) St. Louis and 3) San Fran. Not only does Baltimore play all three of those teams in 2007, they also play Cleveland (sixth worst against RBs) twice, Buffalo (7th worst) and the Jets (eight worse). Not to mention that McGahee feasts on the Jets. So they have seven games against the top 10 worst run defenses! Rounding out the rest of the schedule they face mediocre run defenses in Cincinnati (twice), Arizona and Seattle and five tough games against New England, Miami, San Diego and Pittsburgh (twice).

 

I realize that defenses change a lot from year to year so this might not mean too much, but I think it's safe to say that 1) On paper, McGahee has the easiest schedule for a running back in 2007 and 2) I have a lot of time on my hands.

[Belushi 9]

Thanks for the analysis. I'm still not sure of his potential though. The O-line hasn't improved, and their overall offence still looks below average. He won't be in a RBBC, so he should be a decent RB2, but I doubt much more than that even with the schedule.

[SmartassBoiler 0]

Basing your 2007 analysis off of 2006 defensive rankings is a big waste of time.

[OrangeSoda 2]

Thanks for the analysis. I'm still not sure of his potential though. The O-line hasn't improved, and their overall offence still looks below average. He won't be in a RBBC, so he should be a decent RB2, but I doubt much more than that even with the schedule.

 

 

What? Any OL is an upgrade over Buffalo's, Baltimores may be old, but they are still solid, and there is no reason to think that McGahee can't hit 1500 yrds, and 10 TDs this year. Billick Runs the ball as much as anyone...and defenses have to respect Mc Nair more so than Losman.

[LittleGiants78 0]

and who knows how they will use Musa? Maybe he is the GL back with willis getting the yrds?

[murf74 461]

Basing your 2007 analysis off of 2006 defensive rankings is a big waste of time.

biggest mistake in fantasy football drafting year in and year out

[mozzy84 0]

and who knows how they will use Musa? Maybe he is the GL back with willis getting the yrds?

this doesnt sound like a team that will be pull willis out much.

 

``This is a runner who can make people miss and has the explosion and speed to take it the distance,'' Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said. ``He also has the power and size to run inside. He's a viable receiver out of the backfield and is a good pass blocker, not something every back can do.

 

``He also plays physical and with toughness, which are things we pride ourselves on here.''

[Larry David 20]

Basing your 2007 analysis off of 2006 defensive rankings is a big waste of time.

 

Just out of curiosity, I went back and checked my league stats for 2005. It turns out that there were seven teams that were in the top ten "worst against RBs" in both 2005 and 2006: Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Lions, Raiders and Titans. So I don't think you can say that there is no continuation from year to year. I think there's an excellent chance that teams like the Rams, Texans, Raiders and Titans will not be steel curtains against the run this year.

 

But that wasn't my point anyway. I'm saying that, as of today, if you could hand pick the teams you wanted your RB to start against next year, you couldn't have done much better than the schedule the Ravens got.

[mozzy84 0]

Just out of curiosity, I went back and checked my league stats for 2005. It turns out that there were seven teams that were in the top ten "worst against RBs" in both 2005 and 2006: Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Lions, Raiders and Titans. So I don't think you can say that there is no continuation from year to year. I think there's an excellent chance that teams like the Rams, Texans, Raiders and Titans will not be steel curtains against the run this year.

 

But that wasn't my point anyway. I'm saying that, as of today, if you could hand pick the teams you wanted your RB to start against next year, you couldn't have done much better than the schedule the Ravens got.

I agree, say you draft rudi johnson, it should go through your mind they play Balt and pitt twice a year and will be tough matchups because there defense's are good year in and out. Now sitting studs the first couple weeks because they play say minnesota and had the #1 rush d the year before is a different story. I thought pretty much everybody looked at playoff matchups before drafting running backs??? Especially if you are trying to pick between two certain guys who you have closely ranked, I think it is a smart move myself and hardly a waste of time.

[Franknbeans 46]

He better eat his Wheaties.

[Guest Davaco]

 

 

But that wasn't my point anyway. I'm saying that, as of today, if you could hand pick the teams you wanted your RB to start against next year, you couldn't have done much better than the schedule the Ravens got.

 

yea but, if you cant run the ball to begin with, playing against a bad run defense wont do much

 

balt averaged a palty 3.4 yards a carry and ranked 25th in rushing yards last year, with only 11 tds

 

FF wise, he is a 2 back, no more. if its a PPR league, hes a 2-3

[The Moose 0]

...there is no reason to think that McGahee can't hit 1500 yrds, and 10 TDs this year...

 

 

Those are Top 10 RB numbers. Don't count on it.

[PTAKBuCS 0]

Just out of curiosity, I went back and checked my league stats for 2005. It turns out that there were seven teams that were in the top ten "worst against RBs" in both 2005 and 2006: Rams, 49ers, Texans, Bills, Lions, Raiders and Titans. So I don't think you can say that there is no continuation from year to year. I think there's an excellent chance that teams like the Rams, Texans, Raiders and Titans will not be steel curtains against the run this year.

 

I can go ahead and confirm that the Browns will be in the bottom 10 of run defense again in 2007. So, Willis has that going for him at least.

[lechuza 0]

 

Those are Top 10 RB numbers. Don't count on it.

 

agreed. McGahee simply isnt a very good RB, and i dont see the raven situation giving him those stats

[Belushi 9]

What? Any OL is an upgrade over Buffalo's, Baltimores may be old, but they are still solid, and there is no reason to think that McGahee can't hit 1500 yrds, and 10 TDs this year. Billick Runs the ball as much as anyone...and defenses have to respect Mc Nair more so than Losman.

 

Really? Maybe 10 years ago, but I don't think McNair scares anyone anymore. Losman is mobile and has a great deep threat in Evans. What have the Ravens got?

 

And that great O-line of theirs didn't do much for Lewis, Anderson, or Smith last year. The O-line wasn't the Bills problem last year. It was McGahee's dancing.

[PTAKBuCS 0]

agreed. McGahee simply isnt a very good RB, and i dont see the raven situation giving him those stats

 

I don't know that I would put McGahee in the "Isn't a Very Good RB" category?? Under that category are guys like Travis Minor, Maurice Hicks, Aveion Cason, etc. (No offense to those guys.)

 

Look at the facts: McGahee has had good/great years on a very bad team/offense. McGahee is young. McGahee is motivated. McGahee goes to a run-oriented offense.

 

He simply wore out his welcome in Buffalo, primarily due to off the field issues. All facts point to the "potential" for a much better career in Baltimore. It was time for a change and this could be the inspiration he needs.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion of course. So if you think he's not very good, that's fine. But all signs point to this being a good situation for him to re-energize his career.

 

Peace.

[dreadlocks34 0]

and who knows how they will use Musa? Maybe he is the GL back with willis getting the yrds?

I think this ranks right up there with I am worried about Michael Bennett stealing Larry Johnson's goal line carries.

[Guest Davaco]

I don't know that I would put McGahee in the "Isn't a Very Good RB" category?? Under that category are guys like Travis Minor, Maurice Hicks, Aveion Cason, etc. (No offense to those guys.)

 

Look at the facts: McGahee has had good/great years on a very bad team/offense. McGahee is young. McGahee is motivated. McGahee goes to a run-oriented offense.

 

He simply wore out his welcome in Buffalo, primarily due to off the field issues. All facts point to the "potential" for a much better career in Baltimore. It was time for a change and this could be the inspiration he needs.

 

Everyone is entitled to their opinion of course. So if you think he's not very good, that's fine. But all signs point to this being a good situation for him to re-energize his career.

 

Peace.

 

willis didnt produce on the field either. in 2004 he had a very nice season, but Buffalo played the NFC west and cleveland that year. in 2005, 1200 yards and 5 tds isnt a good/great year. its an average year and a dissapointing year coming off of 2004.

 

in 2006 he had 2, 100 yard games and for his career, he averages less than 4 yards a carry.

 

baltimore as a team, averaged 3.4 a carry last season and were 25th overall in rushing yards. I dont see this as a good situation.

[sharkie22 0]

While I do think 1500 yards is probably a bit too optimistic for McGahee next season, I think 10 TD's is reasonable and 1300+ yards too. I'm a little surprised with some of the comparisons and conclusions listed in this thread between McGahee and the Bills vs. Lewis and the Ravens though. For starters, the Bills played a much harder schedule against top run defenses than the Ravens did last year. The Bills had basically one threat to catch passes making it easier for opponents to defend against the run. The Bills defense allowed an avg. of over 140 rushing yards per game which translates to poor time of possession. I haven't even gotten around to mentioning the difference in talent along each teams offensive line and experience at QB. To use '06 as a knock against McGahees potential in Baltimore isn't much different than saying Edgerrin James has no talent as a back either. Perhaps the overall team makes a difference? Using '05 against McGahee is even more groundless. While many people had big expectations for McGahee and his stats certainly didn't come close to those expectations, it's another case of cause and effect in the NFL. On the other hand, based on Lewis' numbers last year, I think it is fair to put much of the blame for the Ravens poor offensive totals directly on him. The Ravens did have the leagues best defense. They do have more than one guy to throw to. Their schedule was somewhat softer than Buffalo's when looking at defenses and they had a QB who has the experience to make plays when it counts most. While Lewis averaged only 3.6 yards per carry the rest of the backs averaged a combined 4.4 yards. None of the other backs averaged below four yards on their own. While the Ravens offensive personnel may be aging and perhaps declining they are certainly not even close to as bad as the offense McGahee has played in the past two seasons. Add to this a defense that doesn't allow much in the way of yards or points and gets the ball back for the offense and I can't see anything but solid improvement for McGahee next season. Provided he stays healthy.

[Gepetto 1,367]

I won't draft him any earlier than round 7. He'll ony disappoint.

[Ras66not99 0]

Basing your 2007 analysis off of 2006 defensive rankings is a big waste of time.

I wouldn't say it's a BIG waste of time looking ahead due to last season's defenses, and the poster obviously stated he knows defenses change from year to year, as do most smart FF'ers... but its a good bit of info Larry David spit with this post, and could be something to consider if you're in a toss up for your 2nd RB during your draft....

[Tankslap 0]

I agree, say you draft rudi johnson, it should go through your mind they play Balt and pitt twice a year and will be tough matchups because there defense's are good year in and out. Now sitting studs the first couple weeks because they play say minnesota and had the #1 rush d the year before is a different story. I thought pretty much everybody looked at playoff matchups before drafting running backs??? Especially if you are trying to pick between two certain guys who you have closely ranked, I think it is a smart move myself and hardly a waste of time.

 

Good posting to mozz and the original poster Larry David. It's a mistake to put too much weight on the previous year's fantasy defense stats, but with an analysis like this you are really spreading the risk of a massive improvement across many teams which is statistically unlikely. In this particular case, if you are trying to rank another RB that you otherwise rank as head to head with McGahee, this would definitely give McGahee the nod.

[RLLD 4,230]

Basing your 2007 analysis off of 2006 defensive rankings is a big waste of time.

 

While I agree to your assertion in spirit, understanding the 2006 season can add perspective to the 2007 season. it's only a waste of time if you misuse the data.

[dreadlocks34 0]

I won't draft him any earlier than round 7. He'll ony disappoint.

Being he will be one of about 15 backs who aren't in some kind of committee you must have really been burnt my him before the last half season.

[Gepetto 1,367]

Being he will be one of about 15 backs who aren't in some kind of committee you must have really been burnt my him before the last half season.

 

2 years ago. And he's never done anything special consistently.

[dreadlocks34 0]

2 years ago. And he's never done anything special consistently.

No doubt. It is obvious alot of people on this bored really went sour on him.

[Culpooper 3]

I think this trade can only help McGahee. Bills are a sorry organization and Loseman is a pig! Here is where i rank Willis vs the field:

 

1. LT

2. LJ

3. Jackson

4. Alexander

5. Gore

6. FWP

7. Portis

8. McGahee

9. Rudi

10. Ronnie Brown

 

However, this list changes dramitically if NE does not bring in another RB to share carries with Maroney and if Addai is the sole RB getting all the carries in INDY.

[FBIGUY 0]

So I just took a look at the Ravens' 2007 schedule and I'm a lot more excited about McGahee's fantasy value next year. In my league, the three teams that gave up the most RB points in 2006 were 1) Indy 2) St. Louis and 3) San Fran. Not only does Baltimore play all three of those teams in 2007, they also play Cleveland (sixth worst against RBs) twice, Buffalo (7th worst) and the Jets (eight worse). Not to mention that McGahee feasts on the Jets. So they have seven games against the top 10 worst run defenses! Rounding out the rest of the schedule they face mediocre run defenses in Cincinnati (twice), Arizona and Seattle and five tough games against New England, Miami, San Diego and Pittsburgh (twice).

 

I realize that defenses change a lot from year to year so this might not mean too much, but I think it's safe to say that 1) On paper, McGahee has the easiest schedule for a running back in 2007 and 2) I have a lot of time on my hands.

 

 

I think it could be usefull info! You guys should stop giving him such a hard time!