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phillybear

**Official College Football Bowls Wagering Thread**

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I guess we might have tried to start up a couple of these threads the last few weeks, but lets start this up again, officially. I'll post a writeup in a couple minutes for the first game. Taking Utah for 3 units.

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Thursday December 20th.

 

Utah (-7.5) for 3 units LOSER

 

Navy is seeing 62% of the action, and it's no surprise that this line tumbled from double digits to nearly a TD on the spread. Many people got in a habit of betting the dogs in the early bowl games, as that was hitting for a few years. However, that trend seems to have puttered out last year.

 

Key stats:

Navy gaines 447 yards per game, gives up 438 yards per game

Navy gains 6.1 yards per play vs teams that give up 5.4 ypp

Navy gives up 6.1 ypp vs teams that gain 5.2 ypp

Navy is ranked last in college in pass efficiency defense

Navy is ranked in the bottom five in causing sacks

Utah gains 363 yards per game, gives up 320 ypg

Utah gains 5.0 yards per play vs teams that give up 5.2 ypp

Utah gives up 4.6 ypp vs teams that gain 5.3 ypp

Utah gives up 3.7 rushing ypp vs teams that gain 4.0 rypp

Utah was ranked #1 Mountain West scoring defense

Utah was ranked #14 in nation in total defense.

 

While Navy has been a competitive dog the last few years, their defense this year started out horrible, and got worse as the season went on. Down the stretch, Navy's defense allowed 62 points to North Texas, 44 to Notre Dame, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Wake Forest, 45 to Pittsburgh. These offenses were nothing special, yet Navy allowed them to light up the scoreboard. Sure, Navy is the top rushing team in the nation again, but they have to outscore teams to win. But Utah is a pretty good defensive team that has an above average rush defense. Another Navy problem is that their head coach abandoned them to take the Georgia Tech job and won't be around for this game.

 

Utah started the year with a lot of promise, but in the first half of their first game, the starting QB Brian Johnson sufferd an injury, and Utah fell apart. Since Brian Johnson returned to the lineup, Utah ripped off 6 straight wins, but lost to BYU in their final game in the Holy War. Utah held the lead in the final moments, but BYU rallied to win the game. Still, Utah has won 6 straight bowl games, have made bowl games in 5 sraight years, and are simply the superior team, by far. I have been riding Utah a lot down the stretch since B Johnson returned. If he didn't miss those early games, Utah's defense would be nationally ranked. But back then, Utah couldn't move the ball on offense, exposing their defense. BJohnson is quetionable for this game, but is expected to play. However, Utah lost a RB to injury too early in the year. However, RB Mack emerged and gave Utah a balanced attack which would make up for an unexpected B Johnson not starting scenario.

 

Utah is a much better defensive team, and a very solid, balanced offensive team when healthy. It's hard to imagine Navy keeping pace as they played an easy schedule and got lit up on defense pretty much every week. If Utah makes a few stops on defense, this game could get ugly.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.

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...I agree completely with everything said above. Utah with B.Johnson was one of the few teams you could depend on this year and they should continue on here.

 

Utah (-7)

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NCAA Regular Season: 61-53-3

 

Bowls: 0-0

 

Utah -7 vs Navy: Not much to add to the excellent write up above. Navy's pass defense has been shredded by some really average QB's. When healthy, Johnson is well above average. Injuries have been the biggest problem for Utah this season, and the time off should serve them well. Navy will score some points; their system and discipline assures that. There may be some nervous moments in this one as the Utes adjust to playing the Middies, but talent and better balance should win out.

 

Utah is just the kind of favorite you want early in the bowls: superior talent; a team whose season left them wanting a bit more, without being such a disappointment that they're disinterested.

 

Good luck to all!

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I like Utah as a 2 unit pick.

 

Here are my early 2 unit picks:

 

Utah - 2 units

Az. St. - 2 units

Auburn - 2 units

VT - 2 units

 

What's the word on if RR will coach the bowl game for WV? If he doesn't I make Oklahoma a 3 unit game.

 

BTW Philly I have seen you a little down on your game this year but don't sweat it. I have used your Bowl picks in the past and done well. Thank you.

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I won't start a separate thread but a little note on WVU. Obviously they are having trouble but a good buddy of mine who has an in at the athletic dept says the players were sent away from practice today because no coaches showed. He said jump on Oklahoma now before the line skyrockets. FWIW.

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Cross-sport parlays:

1. Navy +220 & Duke -250 & St. Mary's -420 & Denver -360; 1 unit risked==>6 units to win

2. St. Louis +310 & Duke -250 & St. Mary's -420 & Denver -360; 1 unit risked==>8 units to win

3. Navy +220 & St. Louis +310 & Duke -250 & St. Mary's -420 & Denver -360; 1 unit risked==> 28 units to win

 

 

KEY:

Navy=College football

St.Louis =NFL

Duke = College basketball

St.Mary's= College basketball

Denver =NBA

 

Good Luck All

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Utah -8.5 1 unit

Under65 for 2.5 units

 

Utah should contol this game. They are also averaging 41 points a game. I don't see it getting close to 65. I see a 31-14 game.

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Holiday greetings gentlemen,

 

Anyone like Utah? :huh:

 

One things for dam sure and thats Utah can possibly score on every possession. Navys defense is HORRID and Utahs offense will roll. The only concern for my wager here is can Navy move the sticks often enough and chew up clock to keep Utahs offense off the field, my bet is no. Even if somehow they did, Utah might only need 7 possessions to score the required 37 that I need.

 

UTAH TEAM TOTAL OVER 36.5

 

Good luck!!

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I won't start a separate thread but a little note on WVU. Obviously they are having trouble but a good buddy of mine who has an in at the athletic dept says the players were sent away from practice today because no coaches showed. He said jump on Oklahoma now before the line skyrockets. FWIW.

 

Didnt know about the WV problems today obviously but I definately agree. Oklahoma is just gonna manhandle WV in the trenches. Easy 10+ point victory

 

Utah -8.5 1 unit

Under65 for 2.5 units

 

Utah should contol this game. They are also averaging 41 points a game. I don't see it getting close to 65. I see a 31-14 game.

 

Be a sport and make that score more like...38-14? :huh:

 

TIA

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It's just a big old Utah party in here. (Uhhhh, no beer allowed.)

 

Who am I to say different especially with Navy's crap defense?

 

Utah for two units -8 , under 65 for one

 

Other first weekend leans: FAU, Cincy, BYU, Nevada and Boise.

 

gl to all

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Thursday December 20th.

 

Utah (-7.5) for 3 units

 

Navy is seeing 62% of the action, and it's no surprise that this line tumbled from double digits to nearly a TD on the spread. Many people got in a habit of betting the dogs in the early bowl games, as that was hitting for a few years. However, that trend seems to have puttered out last year.

 

Key stats:

Navy gaines 447 yards per game, gives up 438 yards per game

Navy gains 6.1 yards per play vs teams that give up 5.4 ypp

Navy gives up 6.1 ypp vs teams that gain 5.2 ypp

Navy is ranked last in college in pass efficiency defense

Navy is ranked in the bottom five in causing sacks

Utah gains 363 yards per game, gives up 320 ypg

Utah gains 5.0 yards per play vs teams that give up 5.2 ypp

Utah gives up 4.6 ypp vs teams that gain 5.3 ypp

Utah gives up 3.7 rushing ypp vs teams that gain 4.0 rypp

Utah was ranked #1 Mountain West scoring defense

Utah was ranked #14 in nation in total defense.

 

While Navy has been a competitive dog the last few years, their defense this year started out horrible, and got worse as the season went on. Down the stretch, Navy's defense allowed 62 points to North Texas, 44 to Notre Dame, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Wake Forest, 45 to Pittsburgh. These offenses were nothing special, yet Navy allowed them to light up the scoreboard. Sure, Navy is the top rushing team in the nation again, but they have to outscore teams to win. But Utah is a pretty good defensive team that has an above average rush defense. Another Navy problem is that their head coach abandoned them to take the Georgia Tech job and won't be around for this game.

 

Utah started the year with a lot of promise, but in the first half of their first game, the starting QB Brian Johnson sufferd an injury, and Utah fell apart. Since Brian Johnson returned to the lineup, Utah ripped off 6 straight wins, but lost to BYU in their final game in the Holy War. Utah held the lead in the final moments, but BYU rallied to win the game. Still, Utah has won 6 straight bowl games, have made bowl games in 5 sraight years, and are simply the superior team, by far. I have been riding Utah a lot down the stretch since B Johnson returned. If he didn't miss those early games, Utah's defense would be nationally ranked. But back then, Utah couldn't move the ball on offense, exposing their defense. BJohnson is quetionable for this game, but is expected to play. However, Utah lost a RB to injury too early in the year. However, RB Mack emerged and gave Utah a balanced attack which would make up for an unexpected B Johnson not starting scenario.

 

Utah is a much better defensive team, and a very solid, balanced offensive team when healthy. It's hard to imagine Navy keeping pace as they played an easy schedule and got lit up on defense pretty much every week. If Utah makes a few stops on defense, this game could get ugly.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.

When it LQQKS Easy...and it is a LOCK as everyone here is saying on Utah.......Trust Me...NAVY IS THE PLAY!!

 

I just got Navy +8 from the Local Book.......$500.00 on Navy to Start the Week.

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When it LQQKS Easy...and it is a LOCK as everyone here is saying on Utah.......Trust Me...NAVY IS THE PLAY!!

 

I just got Navy +8 from the Local Book.......$500.00 on Navy to Start the Week.

I have to admit that I thought the same thing thinking it looked too easy. But I have watched Navy on defense this year and they were brutal. Time off won't heal it and Utah "should" roll.

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When it LQQKS Easy...and it is a LOCK as everyone here is saying on Utah.......Trust Me...NAVY IS THE PLAY!!

 

I just got Navy +8 from the Local Book.......$500.00 on Navy to Start the Week.

 

:huh: Cant believe im excited to see Gheyhounds. Nice insight provided on your return slaps, the public is currently 60% on Navy :overhead:

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:music_guitarred: Cant believe im excited to see Gheyhounds. Nice insight provided on your return slaps, the public is currently 60% on Navy :doh:

My official plays:

 

Utah -7 (-120) 1 unit

Utah -4 1st Half 1 unit

 

Good luck tonight:

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For what it's worth, I've seen each team play around 5 or so games this year. I will be really disappointed if Utah doesn't cover, but it's a long bowl season, so let's see what happens.

 

I like Flor Atlantic tomorrow. I'll try to put together a writeup tonight or probably tomorrow.

 

Good luck to all.

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My official plays:

 

Utah -7 (-120) 1 unit

Utah -4 1st Half 1 unit

 

Good luck tonight:

 

The Utah vibe is strong in this thread, im gonna play the team total for a smaller amount and take the Utes as well.

 

Good luck!!

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Friday

 

Florida Atlantic (-3.5) for 2 units WINNER

 

Florida Atl is seeing 59% of the action.

 

The two teams are fairly even in stats

Flor Atl gains 413 yards per game, gives up 417

Memphis gains 447, gives up 440

but I am troubled by Memphis giving up 5.2 yards per rush. The Memphis defense sucked this year, partly due to injuries to several starting LB who will miss this game as well. Memphis also gains 5.7 ypp while allowing 6.1 ypp. So while they have outgained their opponents barely on the year, they are more susceptible to the big play. Memphis won their 6 games vs Div I opponents by a combined 29 pts, with one of those wins by 16 points. So they have been very lucky to win 5 games which put them in a bowl game. They have been lucky to be +9 in turnovers on the year as well. Mephis played a Sun Belt team earlier this year, blowing a huge half time lead to fall to mediocre Arkansas St 35-31. And trust me, Flor Atl is better than Ark St.

 

Flor Atl leads the nation in turnover differential at +19. This does trouble me as the have been a bit lucky this year as well. But I am convinced that the Sun Belt is as good as Conf USA this year, and possibly better, and a number of Sun Belt teams have either won or come awfully close to beating BCS teams this year; this is a conference that is rising quickly. Flor Atl did beat Memphis and put a big scare into So Florida. Flor Atl played a tougher schedule, including games vs Oklahoma St, Kentucky, South Florida, Florida, and Troy. And don't overlook the season finale of Flor Atl as a 15 point dog beating Troy to win the Sun Belt. Troy is a very good team, and would be very competitive in any BCS conference. But Flor Atl played them even in stats and beat them 38-32. QB Rusty Smith of Flor Atl set Sun Belt records with his season of 3,352 yards passing, 27 TDs, and only 8 INTs. Flor Atl is comfortable as a favorite this year, going 4-2 ATS.

 

In these early bowl games, you have to look at motivation. Being this is Flor Atl first bowl game ever, you can bet that Howard Schnellenberger will have the kids fired up. Based on my observations this year, Flor Atl looks like the better team, even though the stats are close. Memphis is below average defensively, but Flor Atl only allows 5.5 ypp to teams averaging 5.6 ypp. Memphis beat a bunch of horrible teams in close wins to get here. I suspect Memphis is a fraud and will lose this game by double digits.

 

Lay the lumber. Good luck to all.

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This Pitt Duke game is kinda close, if it goes OT I go Phillybear on the neighbors infant

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This Pitt Duke game is kinda close, if it goes OT I go Phillybear on the neighbors infant

 

Hide the kid. OT, and now I have to find a decent game tracker. Which sucks. Sigh.

 

Opening up multiple windows...

 

Game starts up on ESPN classic. Found it. Navy midfield.

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Utah stuffed them at midfield. Punt time for Navy. :thumbsdown:

 

Navy punter fumbles the ball. Utah recovers inside Navy territory. 2 minutes into the game. :dunno:

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3rd and 3, Utah throws a bad pick. Navy ball at Utah 45. Sh!t.

 

I'll update plays until Duke/Pitt game is over.

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Utah stopped Navy on 3rd down, but 5 yard face mask give Navy first down.

 

At Utah 36.

 

Navy dropped deep pass which would have given them 1st and goal.

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Navy 3rd and 7 from 33. False start. 3rd and 12 from 38. Tough situation for running team and lousy kicker. This might be 4 down territory.

 

Never mind. Navy 1st and goal. Fock.

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Navy 2nd goal from 7. Outside toss, down to 3.

 

3rd and goal from 3 yard line.

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Toss play, inside run. Down to the 2 yard line. FUMBLE!!!! Utah recovers.

 

Replays and announcers say Utah will definitely keep ball.

 

0-0.

 

Timeout on field.

 

I am debating whether to apply to do play by play for an ESPN network. I got it down pat.

 

Utah was a bit lucky to sustain that drive. Utah defense vs run is playing well so far. Navy might have to air it out to win the game.

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3rd and short, Utah picks up first down on dump pass.

 

1st down on own 13 yard line. Utah calls timeout. 6 minutes to go 1st quarter.

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The reason Utah hasnt scored yet is because I cant watch the dam game. MIND CONTROL!!!

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Utah couple of runs. 3rd and 6. Pitt/Duke game just ended. I'm done.

 

Utah crossing pattern, complete, 1st down.

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Utah with another first down, game is on ESPN, and I'm done.

 

Back to my drinking.

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Great, Brian Johnson is about as accurate as Rick Vaughn right now

 

Give it some time. Utah has apparently committed to the run, with success. Navy has the worst pass defense in the nation, so you have to figure that Johnson will come around sooner or later.

 

Utah with a decent drive so far. I just hope they don't rely on Sakoda too much. I know he is a good kicker, but we need TDs.

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Sorry to turn this into a commentary thread. We might have to start up a college bowl betting thread each week if I remain this idiotically chatty.

 

Utah TD was huge. 7-0. Let's go defense.

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