2nd Round Commentary

[Jetdoc 20]

This is where the true surprises will probably start rollin...

[Fumbleweed 426]

The Jetdoc Mock....where more RBs are picked in the first two rounds than in any other draft in the civilized world....

[NAn 39]

Like Mcaghee this year...he was sort of my next option besides Portis.

 

Don't think you'll ever see a ton of tds from him like his 1st year, but could see similar rushing yds, up to 8-10tds amd more recs/rec yds making him gold late 1st early 2nd.

 

Like this pick as much as a hate the LJ pick.

[NAn 39]

Give me a sec for my pick.

 

Scott/Clash left me more options than I was expecting.

[JScott 20]

Clash's picks at the turn were good and bad for me. On the one hand I didn't want to have to take LJ if he was available, but was hoping Willis would make it to me at 2.02.

 

So decisions, decisions. Those that drafted with me last year know how much I touted Wayne, and he came through big time. Of course he had to with Marv down and out. But I see him continuing to be a top 3 WR and Peyton's new go-to guy. I also considered Grant but Wayne is solid points, and Grant can expect 8 men in the box. Last year was similar to Holt taking over for Bruce, for Reggie and Marv and it will continue. Safe pick IMO, but as is usual near the turn when you go RB/WR, the success will be determined by what RB is available at my next picks.

 

 

ETA: Grant comments

[NAn 39]

Well there's my semi-flyer pick....real curious on thoughts on Grant overall and this spot.

 

Strongly considered two other players here, but I think downside is comparable with those players, but like Grants upside.

 

My comments from another thread about him:

 

First of all, let's look at his 'performance per game' even closer, noting ypc in bold:

 

6 8 Mon Oct 29, 2007 W GNB @ DEN 19 13 22 104 4.7 3 7 2.3 0 10ff pts

7 9 Sun Nov 4, 2007 W GNB @ KAN 33 22 19 55 2.9 4 37 9.3 0 8ff pts

8 10 Sun Nov 11, 2007 W GNB MIN 34 0 25 119 4.8 5 20 4.0 1 19ff pts

9 11 Sun Nov 18, 2007 W GNB CAR 31 17 20 88 4.4 1 2 2.0 0 8ff pts

10 12 Thu Nov 22, 2007 W GNB @ DET 37 26 15 101 6.7 6 31 5.2 1 19ff pts

11 13 Thu Nov 29, 2007 L GNB @ DAL 27 37 14 94 6.7 1 4 4.0 2 21ff pts

12 14 Sun Dec 9, 2007 W GNB OAK 38 7 29 156 5.4 2 6 3.0 1 21ff pts

13 15 Sun Dec 16, 2007 W GNB @ STL 33 14 18 55 3.1 2 5 2.5 1 11ff pts

14 16 Sun Dec 23, 2007 L GNB @ CHI 7 35 14 100 7.1 1 9 9.0 1 16ff pts

15 17 Sun Dec 30, 2007 W GNB DET 34 13 6 57 9.5 1 11ff pts

 

1 Division Sat Jan 12, 2008 W GNB SEA 42 20 27 201 7.4 2 6 3.0 3 38ffpts

2 ConfChamp Sun Jan 20, 2008 L GNB NYG 20 23 13 29 2.2 1 -3 -3.0 0 2ffpts

 

by my count that's:

3 games with a below avg ypc

3 games with a solid ypc

6 games with a very good ypc

 

I won't even look at some of the better backs in the league, but think you'd likely see similar results (if that).

 

Let's then look at what we really care about...ff production.

 

I see:

1 game with less than 5 ff pts

2 games with less than 10 ff pts

 

3 games with 10-15 ff pts

 

3 games with 15-20 ff pts (including 2 19ff pt games)

2 games wtih 20-25 ff pts

1 game with 35+ ff pts

 

that's 3 games below avg, 3 games avg, 3 games above avg, 3 great games.

 

Again, think you'd see comparable production of top10 RBs from year to year.

 

And despite the 'half year' talk, that's actually 12 games with 184 ff pts...project over 16 games and that's 245 ff pts.

 

Addai last year? 234 ff pts

Portis? 230 ff pts

 

Let's say down to 220 ff pts, would still warrant a 10-12 overall pick and certainly debatable over such folks as Johnson, Gore and mabye even Lynch, Mcaghee

[Da Bomb 0]

.... ryan grant?

[NAn 39]

.... ryan grant?

 

LOL...bring it Bomb.

 

I'll add I remember similar response by you two years ago when I picked FWP around this spot his BIG year.

[NAn 39]

Hmmm...I'll get to my pregame thinking in a bit, but safe to say may have to re-evaluate.

 

Can't really argue with the picks of Peyton, Owens...well yeah I can.

 

Peyton is solid and nice in mid 2nd but just don't like QBs this early.

 

Owens was a monster for me last year, but he's 35+ right? Not a huge concern, but a concern for me personally.

 

Not sure what to make of Jlew here...he had a nice year despite being member of 370 f/carry club...but could he do it again?

 

And over a couple of players(RBs) still available?

[JScott 20]

I also considered Grant but Wayne is solid points, and Grant can expect 8 men in the box.

 

The one intangible that worries me about Grant is the QB play. Grant showed he has the stuff, but only for one year. And if Rodgers/Brohm aren't threatening defenses Grant's going to see a lot more run defense than last season.

 

A rule of thumb I draft by is all things being equal with 2 players I'm deciding between, I'll steer clear of a major personal change (i.e. player going to new team, new QB or new coaching staff). Something like that usually tips the scales for me. Which was the case with Grant for me.

[ShaneFalco 0]

NAn,

 

I'm interested in hearing how you think Favre's departure will affect Grant's workload/effectiveness

[kutulu 1,545]

Not sure what to make of Jlew here...he had a nice year despite being member of 370 f/carry club...but could he do it again?

 

 

My sources say yes!

[Fumbleweed 426]

I know going QB-WR with my first two picks will not be a popular strategy here, but I have RB's 13-22 on my board almost equal in terms of projections and I simply refuse to reach for one here when I don't think there's value there. On the other hand, we start 3 WRs in this league and Owens should be good for 12-14 TDs this year at a minimum.

 

It's easy to get scared and reach for a position of scarcity like RB even if you don't like what's there to choose from....as most of you know, I pick for value early and worry about rounding things out later.

[FantasyKing 4]

I think Grant is the guy this year that will make or break a lot of teams. He will be the RB you have to get a little early and no one really knows how that team is really going to pan out without Favre, and dont forget there is another RB there that I'm sure GB wants to see.

[NAn 39]

The one intangible that worries me about Grant is the QB play. Grant showed he has the stuff, but only for one year. And if Rodgers/Brohm aren't threatening defenses Grant's going to see a lot more run defense than last season.

 

A rule of thumb I draft by is all things being equal with 2 players I'm deciding between, I'll steer clear of a major personal change (i.e. player going to new team, new QB or new coaching staff). Something like that usually tips the scales for me. Which was the case with Grant for me.

 

That's solid thinking with 'personal changes' being your 'tiebreaker' Jscott.

 

More comments from previous thread addressing Rodgers concern:

 

First I'll concede that Rodgers inexperience may be a factor...early on.

 

I would also expect teams to put 8 in box and challenge Rodgers to beat them. I'll also concede that his NUMBERS v Dallas have to be taken with a grain of salt, considering Dallas suspect pass defense. With all that said though, his numbers aside in that game, I watched it and it was other things I saw that impressed me. He had nice presence in pocket and looked comfortable there. Saw him check down a few times, taking what defense game him. Many young QBs would be a bit tentative (1)seeing first significant playing time in 2 years (2)coming in for a QB icon.

 

So opposing teams may start early in season with 8 in box, but think Rodgers, though may not be spectacular or 'favre-like', will move chains and be productive enough to have teams re-think and adjust, thereby opening things up for Grant.

 

With that said, I still wouldn't be surprised if he was fine out of the gate: Don't see him losing carries as you do and particularly not at GL as like what kid does betweent the tackles, committing to hole with enough quickness to get there and enough strength to break tackles. And should get more opportunities as saw several games where Pack threw at GL with Favre. That shouldn't happen nearly as often with Rodgers at the helm. Lastly, kid reminds me of Shaun Alexander and Dom Davis in their hey-days...not particularly dominant runners but solid FF value b/c 'nose for end zone'.

 

Also, someone mentioned earlier Pack solid D. I agree with this assessment and see defense giving offense more opportunities and better field position to take advantage of.

[Da Bomb 0]

wow, this draft is absolutely flying, i cant barely even keep up.

 

love the owens pick. he is my clear #1 wr right now, last chance to go get that fat contract. i was surprised to see him slip that far. i like the jamal lewis pick a lot as well. he was my #9 rb, right behind that barber-lynch duo.

[ShaneFalco 0]

Can't really argue with the picks of Peyton, Owens...well yeah I can.

 

Peyton is solid and nice in mid 2nd but just don't like QBs this early.

 

I usually don't take QBs this early, I'm usually a proponent of the last-to-take-a-starter-first-to-take-a-backup strategy, I just didn't like my options at RB at this spot. IMO, some of the RBs that have been taken in this round are comparable to the quality of backs that will most likely be available in round 3 (except this is the Jetdoc mock so who knows), and after Peyton and Brady, there are no locks at QB. I'd rather have Manning in the second than Brady in the first...

[Fumbleweed 426]

IMO, some of the RBs that have been taken in this round are comparable to the quality of backs that will most likely be available in round 3

 

Agreed. We'll see if it works out for us at that time.....

[kutulu 1,545]

I think Grant is the guy this year that will make or break a lot of teams. He will be the RB you have to get a little early and no one really knows how that team is really going to pan out without Favre, and dont forget there is another RB there that I'm sure GB wants to see.

 

I'm in a auction league where we can keep 2 players for one year. FA pick ups that become keepers cost you 1 buck against a cap of 120. My keepers are Grant and D. Anderson for a total of 2 bucks.

[NAn 39]

solid thinking Shane...we'll see how it pans out.

 

and see my reply to Scott re: how I think Favre's departure will affect Grant.

[NAn 39]

By the way FK, not concerned about ANY of the other RBs in GB.

 

They are either journeyman RBs or had their shot...Grant's the one who stepped up and just don't see them looking back at other options except spot duty.

[remote controller 133]

I was hoping for Grant to slide to me at pick 20. My back up plan was Jamal Lewis. I didn't have a back up, back up plan, so I'm scramblin'. The draft is moving right along, and there were some very good picks made. I think we are now getting into the gray areas.

[Jetdoc 20]

wow, this draft is absolutely flying, i cant barely even keep up.

 

love the owens pick. he is my clear #1 wr right now, last chance to go get that fat contract. i was surprised to see him slip that far. i like the jamal lewis pick a lot as well. he was my #9 rb, right behind that barber-lynch duo.

 

Grrr... the Manning, Owens and Lewis picks really threw me for a loop, as I'd figure one of the three would fall to me at 2.07.

 

Although I love the talent at RB that is likely coming up in the 3rd and 4th rounds, I didn't see that "gotta have" WR at this point. The 6th spot this year is going to be really tough to draft from, as it is after the first tier of RB's in the first round and it's at a nice cliff in the 2nd round as well.

 

I decided to roll the dice on Bush...McAllister's back but has two knees that have had ACL surgery, and the Saints have already admitted that they regretted the extent that they got Bush involved in the offense last year.

 

Tough choice here...I'd love to get y'alls input on that unconventional pick.

[Da Bomb 0]

I was hoping for Grant to slide to me at pick 20. My back up plan was Jamal Lewis. I didn't have a back up, back up plan, so I'm scramblin'. The draft is moving right along, and there were some very good picks made. I think we are now getting into the gray areas.

 

im leaving in 10 minutes for about 2 and a half hours in a meeting. i didnt expect some of this so fast either. who can i send a list to for this pick, and then y'all are gonna have to wait for my 3.4 after that.

[Jetdoc 20]

...and Edwards was the other person I was wrestling with at my pick.

 

As usual, a good group of mockers that do not let much slip.

[NAn 39]

Jet...I like the Bush pick.

 

And gives me a chance to talk general draft stragety.

 

Coming in I asked for 10th spot as I feel if I got say spots 9-12 in real draft I'd be happy.

 

With options like Portis/Lynch/Mcaghee in first, then coming back with Grant/Bush/Other in the 2nd...combos I'd be happy with going in (at least as far as I see right now, we'll see what RBs are left in late 3rd).

 

Think Bush is an ideal #2 RB...never liked him as a team's #1, but as a #2 his numbers as is are solid, but with obvious big upside. Kid really needs to turn the corner on ypc though...a career high 3's ypc isn't so greta in the NFL.

[NAn 39]

love the Edwards pick.

 

for me personally games I saw, kid isn't a one year wonder....strong/quick, solid route running and repoire with QB.

 

honestly think he's going to replace a certain WR as a consistent top5-7 WR year in and year out.

 

 

Edited to omit name of player still not picked...my bad on that guys.

[NAn 39]

Curious...no one is concerned with Owens age?

 

He's obviously not showing it to date and he'll be on another solid offense with a solid QB...so that outweighs age concern, so he's a consensus 2nd rnd pick?

[Da Bomb 0]

all - im out now until 3 or 3:30 cst. wish i could send a list but truthfully im rushed to even make this 2.9 selection but dont want to hold things up. i'll pick as soon as i can for 3.4.

[Jetdoc 20]

No problem - we're way ahead of schedule at this point, so if we make it to 3.04, I'm not too concerned if we have a pause for a bit.

[NAn 39]

like Fitz pick...kid has put up some nice numbers despite missing time each season.

 

that of course is a concern, but if can get a semi-deep WR corp, worth it for games he misses for production in other games.

 

with all that said, shocked a few players are still on the board.

 

we'll see how long they stay on the board.

[remote controller 133]

It was a struggle pulling the trigger on a wideout in the 2nd round for me, but my two targeted backs were gone. (Jamal, Grant) It came down to a choice between my 13th ranked back, and my 2nd ranked receiver. I have Edwards slightly ahead of Wayne at this time, and had to go with the young stud wideout. He has an explosive offense and a Qb who loves him. Owen's age does concern me, but I hurt myself every year when I force myself to come up with a reason to hate the guy. He usually bites me in the A$$ by killing me when I play him.

[robb 71]

I usually don't take QBs this early, I'm usually a proponent of the last-to-take-a-starter-first-to-take-a-backup strategy, I just didn't like my options at RB at this spot. IMO, some of the RBs that have been taken in this round are comparable to the quality of backs that will most likely be available in round 3 (except this is the Jetdoc mock so who knows), and after Peyton and Brady, there are no locks at QB. I'd rather have Manning in the second than Brady in the first...

 

I agree with Shaner on this statement also!

 

I will hopefully get my #2 RB in early round 3, there are some excellent options out there still. A. Johnson, just too good a value here to take a RB #2 in round two. One more year of playing with the same QB (Schaub) and a better offensive line, so, high hopes this year. Only concern would be with the mediocre running back play in Houston.

[Vikings4ever 496]

I'll make my selection in a minute.

[remote controller 133]

Jones Drew almost disappeared at 2.08. He was the 13th rated Rb I spoke of above. He and AD are a solid start V4E!

[Jetdoc 20]

Jones Drew almost disappeared at 2.08. He was the 13th rated Rb I spoke of above. He and AD are a solid start V4E!

 

I have to disagree here. I see MJD ranked highly in various places, but I just don't get it.

 

Has Taylor retired?

 

Other than the sparse splash of brilliance, I still don't see why people are valuing MJD so high in a redraft as long as Fred is getting a decent share of the carries.

 

I see MJD as a very good 3rd round back (which is close to where V4E drafted him), but I just can't seeing spending a 2nd round pick on pure potential.

[JScott 20]

I have to disagree here. I see MJD ranked highly in various places, but I just don't get it.

 

Has Taylor retired?

 

Other than the sparse splash of brilliance, I still don't see why people are valuing MJD so high in a redraft as long as Fred is getting a decent share of the carries.

 

I see MJD as a very good 3rd round back (which is close to where V4E drafted him), but I just can't seeing spending a 2nd round pick on pure potential.

 

I agree Jet. Remote and I had this very conversation at length last season. Obviously we felt differently about MJD. As long as Fred is there I don't think MJD is second round value.

[Vikings4ever 496]

Mojo finished the season 13th in points (non PPR), making him the top #2 back in 12 team leagues.

 

I am concerned about Taylor, but this is Fragile Freddy Taylor we're talking about. I saw him as the top back available, and would seriously consider taking him over Bush.

[Jetdoc 20]

Mojo finished the season 13th in points (non PPR), making him the top #2 back in 12 team leagues.

 

I am concerned about Taylor, but this is Fragile Freddy Taylor we're talking about. I saw him as the top back available, and would seriously consider taking him over Bush.

 

That's interesting...I have seen others rate him higher than Bush, but couldn't figure out why. How was his scoring - very lumpy or pretty consistent throughout the year?

[Vikings4ever 496]

That's interesting...I have seen others rate him higher than Bush, but couldn't figure out why. How was his scoring - very lumpy or pretty consistent throughout the year?

Lumpier than I would like. 2 games of 20+ points, 9 of less than 10, and 1 missed game. He had a 30 point game that really helped his year end total.

 

Bush was fairly consistent, 1 game of 20+ points, 4 of less than 10, and 4 missed games.