Mid-Draft Analysis

[Jetdoc 20]

Analysis of Draft Trends

 

Early 1st Round.As expected, the first five picks are a lock for the top tier of RB's. If you can secure one of the 1st five draft picks, you're in very good shape as I don't see anyone with a ton of potential downside in that group other than Tomlinson.

 

Remainder of 1st Round Through 2.01. Some no-brainer picks here, the only question is order (i.e. where do Moss/Brady fall and which of the RB crop should be taken 1st). If you can secure the 12th pick in the draft, I think you're in very good shape.

 

Early to Mid 2nd Round (through 2.06). This is a little more risky but relatively interchangeable group. There's a serious cliff right after 2.06. As I said (not trying to instill self pity or anything), but that's why, IMO, the 6th slot is one of the worst to draft from this year.

 

Mid 2nd Round to Early 3rd Round. As expected, this is where the run of WR's is anticipated to occur, with some serious talent coming off the board. This again stresses why the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft is very advantageous this year - you can come out of the 1st 3 rounds with a top RB and 2 top WR's. I wouldn't recommend taking a RB at the turn, as the WR talent is just too much to pass up.

 

Meat of 3rd Round. This is the round where a lot of the next tier of RB's will be taken, as owners are rounding out their 2nd RB's before the talent pool drops off.

 

3.12 through 4.08. A good opportunity for those at the back-end of the draft to pick up their 2nd wideout before the WR talent takes a serious dip. You also see many of the final "decent" RB's being taken at this point, for those that are either nervous about their RB2 position or are looking to snag a bonafide RB3 before the speculative/RBBC picks are taken.

 

4.09 through 5.06. This is where the remaining "quality" primary WR's are taken. Another stress why having one of the first five picks is very advantagous, as you can come out with an awesome RB1, a servicable RB2, and three downright scary WR's.

 

Mid 5th through Mid 6th Round. This is prime QB snagging territory, with all of those that chose to bypass quality QB's in the first four rounds (about one taken per round) decide to snag the last of the quality tier of QB's. This almost screams that if you have one of the first five picks in the draft, there's a really good chance you'll have a mediocre QB unless you bypass conventional wisdom and decide to replace one of your quality picks with a QB that's fallen too far.

 

Rest of 6th Round through Early 7th. You can expect that this is where the dice is likely to be rolled, with many of the rookie RB's being taken as RB3's. Not a bad place to take a gamble as most (if not all) of your starters have already been filled.

 

I'll add a summary of all of the different comments (in the commentary thread) about each player and where they were taken in a while.

[remote controller 133]

Analysis of Draft Trends

 

 

Early to Mid 2nd Round (through 2.06). This is a little more risky but relatively interchangeable group. There's a serious cliff right after 2.06. As I said (not trying to instill self pity or anything), but that's why, IMO, the 6th slot is one of the worst to draft from this year.

Question though Jet: Had you decided to forgo Moss in the first, and settled on say...... Fitz, Edwards, or AJ in the 2nd, and grabbed a Rb in round 1 like Gore, Portis, or Lynch, couldn't you have moved that cliff? It is all opinion, and I do see a top 5, but I have to add 3 more, as I see a must 8, before the leap to the QB and/or Wr. Just wanted to throw this out there. You can move it if this isn't what this thread is for. Thanks, as this could have some great discussions.

[Jetdoc 20]

Question though Jet: Had you decided to forgo Moss in the first, and settled on say...... Fitz, Edwards, or AJ in the 2nd, and grabbed a Rb in round 1 like Gore, Portis, or Lynch, couldn't you have moved that cliff? It is all opinion, and I do see a top 5, but I have to add 3 more, as I see a must 8, before the leap to the QB and/or Wr. Just wanted to throw this out there. You can move it if this isn't what this thread is for. Thanks, as this could have some great discussions.

 

No...this is good for this thread, as it helps define different strategies at each position (which is where I was going with this thread).

 

Even if I would've passed on either Moss or Brady, I have a hard time seeing anyone in the top 18 dropping out of that round (if anyone, I could see Ryan Grant dropping out, but even that's tough). In other words, someone would be guaranteed of taking Moss or Brady before 2.07, so it would just shift the mix of players within the top 18.

 

The only other way I could see someone dropping out is if the back end drafters are totally dead-set against taking a QB in the first two rounds, and decide to let Manning slip to 2.07 by taking Edwards early.

[Da Bomb 0]

i personally dont think it was that dead set. there were a few picks in there that surprised me, and i was also think that some of those following WRs belong in that tier, particularly braylon and fitzgerald. i wouldnt have been surprised to see either of them picked, especially braylon, as early as where reggie wayne went.

[Da Bomb 0]

based on your analysis at least, my #4 pick has been picking right after a tier fall off in the 2nd, 3rd, AND 4th.

[remote controller 133]

No...this is good for this thread, as it helps define different strategies at each position (which is where I was going with this thread).

 

Even if I would've passed on either Moss or Brady, I have a hard time seeing anyone in the top 18 dropping out of that round (if anyone, I could see Ryan Grant dropping out, but even that's tough). In other words, someone would be guaranteed of taking Moss or Brady before 2.07, so it would just shift the mix of players within the top 18.

 

The only other way I could see someone dropping out is if the back end drafters are totally dead-set against taking a QB in the first two rounds, and decide to let Manning slip to 2.07 by taking Edwards early.

No player would have dropped per se. Bush would not have been selcted by you at 19, unless you wanted a second back at that point. Would you prefer Gore/Portis/Lynch over Bush? Had you been content to take one of the other 3 wideouts I was talking about, then I don't think you would have been hung on that cliff. You would have pushed it back. I have know idea ultimately where that cliff would be, but it seems to me that the cliff usually hits the owners who avoid the rb in round 1, and aren't close to the corner to respond. What tandem do you like better? Gore/Edwards or Moss/Bush, or is it a push? You could have had either. I truly feel that the corner is the spot for the Qb/wr grab in the first round. The same goes for the first TE in TE required leagues, only that corner would be the 3/4 corner.

[Fumbleweed 426]

No player would have dropped per se. Bush would not have been selcted by you at 19, unless you wanted a second back at that point. Would you prefer Gore/Portis/Lynch over Bush? Had you been content to take one of the other 3 wideouts I was talking about, then I don't think you would have been hung on that cliff. You would have pushed it back. I have know idea ultimately where that cliff would be, but it seems to me that the cliff usually hits the owners who avoid the rb in round 1, and aren't close to the corner to respond. What tandem do you like better? Gore/Edwards or Moss/Bush, or is it a push? You could have had either. I truly feel that the corner is the spot for the Qb/wr grab in the first round. The same goes for the first TE in TE required leagues, only that corner would be the 3/4 corner.

 

Moss and Brady led a lot of teams to championships last year by being their own personal top tier in both the QB and WR categories. While your point about other WRs is valid, if Moss even gets 80% of his production from 2007 this year, that's still 18-19 TDs. The potential for him to be a home run hitter like no other receiver is still there for this season as it is with Brady as well.

[remote controller 133]

Moss and Brady led a lot of teams to championships last year by being their own personal top tier in both the QB and WR categories. While your point about other WRs is valid, if Moss even gets 80% of his production from 2007 this year, that's still 18-19 TDs. The potential for him to be a home run hitter like no other receiver is still there for this season as it is with Brady as well.

Not arguing that at all Fumble. I am talking about the cliff at 2.06 that he suggested, and I felt that was caused by taking a player such as Moss/Brady mid round 1. I can't discount their scoring potential at all, just the drafting dilema's that follow. I feel the corner is more adaptable to making those needed adjustments(the closer the better that is).