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jbwillisjr

Lets talk Portis

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I have done the research and stat projections and have extrapolated historical data while analyziing current offensive systems. I have come to the conclusion that C-PO will be a top 5 back this year PPR.

 

1. He is completely healthy (the last two years prior to his top 5 projection he has either been injured prior to the draft or been seen as in a RBBC situation)

 

2. The RBBC is dead, Betts will no longer steal carries on third down or at the goal line.

 

3. Zorn has stated that Portis will be the centerpeice in the offense. Portis will be relied upon heavily as Campbell will be adjusting to his new offensive system.

 

4. The Zorn school of Westcoast offense (think Seattle circa 2005) will focus the offense around the run game and will primarily get it to the RB inside the 20.

 

5. The offensive line is still very good (top 10).

 

6. The defense is improved which will allow the skins to run the ball later into games without frequently playing "catch-up

 

7. All indications from camp show Portis having a great off season and is more commited to conditioning and offseason training.

 

8. Portis proved that he can be a great receiver out of the backfield last year as well as a very good short yardage runner.

 

9. His YPC will go up exponentially as the Gibbs antiquated counter-tre system has been laid to rest.

 

10. Zorn stated he looks to get Portis the ball "out in space" which means more flare out receptions (where his combo of speed and power will be best suited) as well as decreasing the chance of injury banging in-between the tackles all the time.

 

I may have missed a few points but overall I see Portis slightly ahead of both MBIII, Addai, Brady and Moss in PPR to make him undervalued in most drafts this year at his current ADP...........

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Jerome from Southeast D.C. ('skins insider) said he's gonna blow up this year. Good 'nuff for me, I'm taking him if he's available.

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Your right, Pimtdaddy, he's a bust, as in he will have his bust in Canton when he's done bustin up da joint!

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portis is a bust!

You are worthless and should kill yourself. In real life is OK, but I'd be fine with you deleting your account and never returning, as you add absolutely no value to this place whatsoever. TIA. :shocking:

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portis is a bust!

 

seriously, what a great contribution.

 

um, getting back to the OP who wrote a excellent and detailed post, i'm trying to think of some reasons as to why portis might not be first round material.

 

the first thing that comes to mind is the number of carries he had last year... 325 rushes plus 47 catches. that equals 348.5 using the "carries + .5 receptions" formula. its not over 370, but its getting up there. in 2005 he had 352 + (.5)30, which is 367. much closer to 370, and as a result he broke down in 2006.

 

oh and his YPC has gone down in each of the past 3 seasons, from 4.3 -> 4.1 -> 3.9. however as you pointed out gibbs is out of the equation as is his vanilla run scheme.

 

and thats about the only negative i can think of. campbell is looking better, certainly good enough to keep the defense from staking 8 in the box, and zorn said that he wants to get portis in the passing game even more than last year.

 

as for ranking the top RBs, i see it like this.... (keep in mind PPR)

 

Top Tier:

LT

Westbrook

Sjax

Addai

AP

 

Second Tier:

Barber

Gore

Portis

Lynch

LJ

Grant

 

then all the other junk like Willis and Jacobs and Jamal.

 

I think Portis is the clearly near the top of that 2nd tier. the question is, would you take him over gore? over barber? i wouldn't take him before barber, but its a serious debate between Portis and Gore

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According to Madden/Michaels during the HOF game sunday, Zorn only replaced the passing game with his west coast scheme, and is leaving much of Gibbs' running game in place, hence the reason they retained Joe Bugel as the o-line coach. The counter trey can work wonders for Portis as long as their athletic guards can stay healthy, something that didn't happen for most of last year, which had a negative effect on Portis' YPC.

 

Based upon his years in Seattle, look for Portis to be very active in the Zorn version of the pass game with a heavy dose of screen passes, a la Green Bay. The Packers have always been an elite screen pass team, and Shaun Alexander thrived as a pass catcher early in his career (44, 59, 42 receptions in years 2, 3 and 4) when Holmgren arrived. (Remember that famous 5-TD game Alexander had that Monday night? He had an 80yard TD on a screen pass) For whatever reason the Seattle offense in recent years almost totally turned away from throwing to their RBs on running downs.

 

Based upon the NFC east's glut of pass rushing teams, I can envision the Redskins using the screen game as a way to slow the rush. Look for Portis to make at least half a dozen big plays (30+ yards) in the passing game this year.

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Thanks for all the responses (at least the ones that address the topic). Anyway, I cant think of a reason not to project him at the top 5 RB or right outside with the potential to break into the elite category. Therefore, if Gore and Barber are gone and you are staring at the Portis, Brady, Moss, Lynch decision at 1.8, I'm convinced C-Po is the pick based on the RB drop off/variance between him and Lynch/Lewis/Mcgahee/LJ in the third tier. Easy decision.

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C-Port has been solid in both 05 and last year in Washington, while 06 saw him suffer through some injuries. While I have had him all three of those years and am a fan, I would caution to temper your expectations for his production. While he was good in 05 and 07, he was nowhere near elite in either year. And understand that, by elite, I mean a guy that will win a week or two by himself for you while putting up good to great numbers most other weeks. Guys last year like Westbrook and Ladainian. In general, in a PPR league, guys that will regularly catch 5-6 balls a game in addition to the rushing and TD numbers. That said, in a PPR format, I would have serious questions about taking Portis in the first over a guy like Gore, who will probably out-recept Portis by about 40 catches. And, just to stir it up a bit, I would argue that I would rather have Reggie Bush in a PPR setting than Portis.

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nice thread, good topic.

 

I'm in the camp that believes Portis is a low end #1RB, elite #2 RB.

 

The WAS o-line is NOT top 10 IMO, they're a little old and injury prone.

The entire WAS offense is a bit of a question mark, starting with the QB play and ending with the new HC (Zorn).

 

There's this idea out there that Zorn will immediately turn WAS into the circa 2000 SEA offense. I don't believe it's that simple. New coaches take more than 1 season to implement their system, there will be kinks and problems the first year.

 

The guy who may benefit the most from Zorn is S Moss. I'd love to grab him in the mid rounds as a #2/#3 WR.

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Thanks for all the responses (at least the ones that address the topic). Anyway, I cant think of a reason not to project him at the top 5 RB or right outside with the potential to break into the elite category. Therefore, if Gore and Barber are gone and you are staring at the Portis, Brady, Moss, Lynch decision at 1.8, I'm convinced C-Po is the pick based on the RB drop off/variance between him and Lynch/Lewis/Mcgahee/LJ in the third tier. Easy decision.

 

I agree that Portis has very few question marks this year, and should be in for another soild year, and I would certainly take him instead of Lynch, Moss, and possibly Brady. That being said, I don't see him belonging any higher than that. He certainly has a lot of positives, but the same can be said for any RB really. I put Barber ahead of him (high-powered offense, TD machine, heavier workload, top3 OLine, winning team), and place Portis on the same level as LJ and slightly ahead of Gore. I'm not buying the whole "Martz will make the RB a star" theory, but think Gore will have a solid season. I think you look at Portis last year - around RB #5, but was really all you could ask for. He won't see an INCREASE in touches, and could see a slight, slight decrease (keeping him fresh while mixing in Betts slightly more, and a little more reliance on WCO short passing). Last year, LJ was pretty much worst case scenario even before the injury - and he was on pace for 1100 yards, 60 catches 350 yards and 8 TDs - around RB #8-10. I see better numbers for LJ over 16 games, and Portis with like a 5-10% decrease (not much) from last years #s. In the end, my RB PPR rankings are:

-LT

-S. Jackson

-B. Westbrook

-A. Peterson

-J. Addai

-M. Barber

-L. Johnson

-C. Portis

-F. Gore

-M. JonesDrew

-R. Bush

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I would have serious questions about taking Portis in the first over a guy like Gore, who will probably out-recept Portis by about 40 catches.

How the hell did you come to this conclusion?

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How the hell did you come to this conclusion?

 

I didn't post that comment - but I'm guessing he's drinking the Mike Martz koolaid and believes every Martz RB has about 90 catches, while still carrying the ball 280 times?!?!? Doesn't really add up to me, but I do see Gore with about 60-70 catches and Portis with around 45-55.

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taking Portis in the first over a guy like Gore, who will probably out-recept Portis by about 40 catches. And, just to stir it up a bit, I would argue that I would rather have Reggie Bush in a PPR setting than Portis.

WOW - 'dems some bold predictions!

 

nice thread, good topic.

 

I'm in the camp that believes Portis is a low end #1RB, elite #2 RB.

What the heck's an elite #2???? :rolleyes:

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I didn't post that comment - but I'm guessing he's drinking the Mike Martz koolaid and believes every Martz RB has about 90 catches, while still carrying the ball 280 times?!?!? Doesn't really add up to me, but I do see Gore with about 60-70 catches and Portis with around 45-55.

Based on the fact that Portis had close to 50 last year under Gibbs, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him catch 60+ this season in the west coast.

 

But if Gore is going catch 90 to 100 balls, why isn't he a top 5 pick??

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What the heck's an elite #2???? :pointstosky:

 

in a 12 teamer, Portis is being drafted near the turn of the first round.

He'll go as early as 1.05, or as late as mid second.

 

Some will draft a Gore, M Lynch, or M Barber in the first round and then grab Portis in the early second round.

 

Portis is a pretty nice RB#2.

It really isn't that hard to understand.

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Based on the fact that Portis had close to 50 last year under Gibbs, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him catch 60+ this season in the west coast.

 

But if Gore is going catch 90 to 100 balls, why isn't he a top 5 pick??

 

I'm with ya surferskin - I don't think Gore will be catching more than 70, let alone 90-100...I also don't see Portis catching more than 50-60. I think we all agree Gore will probably finish with more receptions, it won't be a huge disparity...

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Thanks for all the responses (at least the ones that address the topic). Anyway, I cant think of a reason not to project him at the top 5 RB or right outside with the potential to break into the elite category. Therefore, if Gore and Barber are gone and you are staring at the Portis, Brady, Moss, Lynch decision at 1.8, I'm convinced C-Po is the pick based on the RB drop off/variance between him and Lynch/Lewis/Mcgahee/LJ in the third tier. Easy decision.

 

This is a no brainer for me, because his numbers place him in the tier 1 group in my scoring system.

Last year he finished top 3 in my league with 1650 total yards and 11 Tds, plus 47 catches...

In addition, 3 out of the last 4 years he finished as a top ten RB.

 

In 06 he got hurt and Betts finished the season strong which tells you the Offensive line is for real.....

 

What more do you need to believe?

I hope no one from my league visits this web site, because I see great value with Portis at the moment...

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Clinton will be a damned solid RB for fantasy purposes. Period. He will NOT reach LT or ADP type numbers but he could very well out-do some other big name guys. Last year with a completely vanilla offense he was able to compile some good stats and he did it towards the end of the year when most fantasy owners needed him the most. Like a few have mentioned, he was NOT losing GL carries to LaDell Fats or Mike Sellers and I expect this to continue.

 

That being said, you still have to temper your expectations a little bit. Its still the Skins. Its still Jason Campbell. Its still a tough division with plenty of lower scoring, grind it out games where there wont be a ton of TDs scored.

 

Draft Clinton with confidence.... just make sure your realistic too! :pointstosky:

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in a 12 teamer, Portis is being drafted near the turn of the first round.

He'll go as early as 1.05, or as late as mid second.

 

Some will draft a Gore, M Lynch, or M Barber in the first round and then grab Portis in the early second round.

 

Portis is a pretty nice RB#2.

It really isn't that hard to understand.

First of all, kudos to you if you land Portis as your RB#2! :pointstosky:

The thing that is hard to understand is the way you use your terms "elite" and "RB#2". Elite should limited to the top couple of players at each postion such as LT and ADP when discussing RB's. To say an Elite #2 is an oxymoron (which is not a pimply-faced idiot in cases you were confused).

Also Portis is a solid RB#1 for all those not drafting in the top 4-5 picks. I think what you meant is he is a nice 2nd tier RB. HTH

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How the hell did you come to this conclusion?

 

My projections have Portis at the 40-45 range, with Gore in the 80-85 range. For the poster who posited that I am drinking the Martz kool-aid, I point to Gore averaging 57 catches a year without Martz, which is more than 20 catches a year higher than Portis has averaged since joining Washington. I do believe that Gore will improve on that by about 20 with Martz determined to run the offense through him.

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I just took Portis over Gore at 1.9 in a ppr league.

We're a Detroit league though, and none of us seem to be drinking the Martz in SF kool aide. Especially not with JT O'Sulliven as a legit starting option at Qb. Bleeech. The '08 Niners are NOT the Kurt Warner Rams. HTH.

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I just took Portis over Gore at 1.9 in a ppr league.

We're a Detroit league though, and none of us seem to be drinking the Martz in SF kool aide. Especially not with JT O'Sulliven as a legit starting option at Qb. Bleeech. The '08 Niners are NOT the Kurt Warner Rams. HTH.

 

 

This is one of the smarted thing said. I also think its funny how people are high on vernon davis because of martz.

As for C-po, he has always been the top 3 rb's to have in madden but thats a different story. I would love to have C-po as a #2. As a seahwak fan, i question some of the hope. People have to understand that the hawks had many good things going fo them during those times mentiones. The O-line was stellar, SA was in my eyes a product of the system but he played well and as a seahawk fan, i gave him his props. Hasselbach was a much better qb then campbell is now, and we play in the weakest division. All of these factors must be added

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I doubt Portis has every played a regular season down for the Skins with the whole offensive line healthy. I also doubt he has ever played a down with 4 legit receiving threats on the field at once. Fewer touches this year could result in bigger numbers. 1600 total yards and 11 TDs should be automatic if he is healthy. That's top 5 based on last year.

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I think CP is going right where he should be this year. Mid to late 1st. Anything after that is a steal but Im also not gonna say he's a lock for top 5 numbers.

 

There is reason for both optimism and concern with the new coaching staff. Its true that Zorn is leaving in most of the terminology and plays for the run game that was there last year BUT he also plans to spread the field more with different formations and give Portis more room to run.

 

After my top 4 of LT, ADP, Westbrook, and SJax there is a larger group of RBs in my second tier. Addai heads that group because of the offense he plays in but there are some concerns with him as well. I think Portis is right in the mix with and Gore and MBIII. You could really make an argument for any of them and it could depend on league scoring. I think just below that group are guys like McGahee, Lynch, LJ, and Grant.

 

So top 5? I dunno. But Portis is solid this year with a little bit of upside.

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I doubt Portis has every played a regular season down for the Skins with the whole offensive line healthy. I also doubt he has ever played a down with 4 legit receiving threats on the field at once. Fewer touches this year could result in bigger numbers. 1600 total yards and 11 TDs should be automatic if he is healthy. That's top 5 based on last year.

 

If he's never had a healthy OLine - why should you all of a sudden expect one this year?? And 4 legit receiving threats?? Moss is a below average #1 WR, Randel El is best suited as a slot guy, not a #2, and two rookie WRs (who often never produce) who are already banged up???? This doesn't sound automatic Timmy...

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I don't get all the fuss. No one is trying to claim Portis is an elite, "win a game by himself" fantasy RB (not in his current situtation). What he is going to give you is a consistant weekly performance you can hang your hat on, with the occasional big game. In this day in the NFL, he's one of the every down backs left in the league, that alone gives him tons of value. He doesn't split time, won't come out for a situational sub, and plays (well) with nagging injuries.

 

If I had to grab him as my #1 rb, I'd feel comfortable grabbing a rookie rb with some upside (stewart, K. Smith, Forte) and pair them both with a middle tier veteran (T. Jones, E. Graham).

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Great topic and very good input from everyone (except Pimptaddy). i'm with the majority and think that Portis will do better than last season which puts him towards the top of the pack in RB's but not above the likes of LT, Peterson or Westbrook.

 

My dilema is that my league gives 6pts for all touchdowns which makes QB's alittle more valuable. Depending on where I draft (which isn't decided until right before the draft) do I put Portis above Brady or Manning? In past years, there's anywhere from 2 to 6 QB's taken in the first round. So if I don't get one early, I'm stuck with the likes of Hasselbeck or Garrard (which isn't entirely bad i'll get great value in RB's and WR's and i'm liking Big Ben this year in the 5th or 6th).

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Great topic and very good input from everyone (except Pimptaddy). i'm with the majority and think that Portis will do better than last season which puts him towards the top of the pack in RB's but not above the likes of LT, Peterson or Westbrook.

 

My dilema is that my league gives 6pts for all touchdowns which makes QB's alittle more valuable. Depending on where I draft (which isn't decided until right before the draft) do I put Portis above Brady or Manning? In past years, there's anywhere from 2 to 6 QB's taken in the first round. So if I don't get one early, I'm stuck with the likes of Hasselbeck or Garrard (which isn't entirely bad i'll get great value in RB's and WR's and i'm liking Big Ben this year in the 5th or 6th).

 

If 5 or 6 QBs are likely going in the first round - how are you grabbing the consensus #5-8 QB in the 5th or 6th round?? That'd be a steal if you can - but I think you'd be wise to draft one early if they are as valuable as you say they are. With 4-6 going in the first round, you won't be the only one drafting a QB, and that will allow higher quality RBs to fall to you in the 2nd round. Idk how many people in your league, but you should be able to land a LJ, Grant, Lynch, McGahee, MJD easily in the 2nd round..

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Great topic and very good input from everyone (except Pimptaddy). i'm with the majority and think that Portis will do better than last season which puts him towards the top of the pack in RB's but not above the likes of LT, Peterson or Westbrook.

 

My dilema is that my league gives 6pts for all touchdowns which makes QB's alittle more valuable. Depending on where I draft (which isn't decided until right before the draft) do I put Portis above Brady or Manning? In past years, there's anywhere from 2 to 6 QB's taken in the first round. So if I don't get one early, I'm stuck with the likes of Hasselbeck or Garrard (which isn't entirely bad i'll get great value in RB's and WR's and i'm liking Big Ben this year in the 5th or 6th).

 

 

What league were you in where 6 qbs went in the first round??? :thumbsup:

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Portis is coming into this year with no offseason surgeries or nagging injuries...ex last years knee stuff

 

Zorn made the comment that portis worked in the offseason in Washington and is gearing his mindset that he is gonna be leaned on heavily this year.

 

all this said....who knows. but it sounds positive.

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