Why I would stay away from Earnest Graham...

[Corky76 2]

Now that my big $ draft is over I figure it'd be safe to post this. I think Graham will be a huge bust and here is why:

 

1. The only reason he got so much playing time last year was because he was basically the only RB Tampa had by midseason besides Michael Bennett who hadn't yet learned the offense.

 

2. All Gruden keeps talking about this preseason is Bennett as far as RB's

 

3. Warrick Dunn is back and he will definitely get some carries.

 

4. Caddy will also be back sometime this season, maybe by week 4.

 

5. They've lost their best offensive lineman Davin Joseph for at least the first 6 weeks.

 

The only thing he really has going is that he'll be the best option at the goal line but that's about it.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I dont get it, I still have Graham rank pretty high I think right around 16 or so. The guy was great at catching the ball, and the thing he has going for him is the goaline back.

 

Anyone have any blurbs or anything from Gruden saying that he is not going to be the guy. All I have read is speculation about Dunn and Bennett, well let me tell you something Dunn is old and not worth much of anything anymore. Bennett might be a change of pace back but Graham held up pretty good last year

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Graham is way better then Bennett has ever been, and is better then Dunn at this point in their careers. Caddy might have trouble ever being a starting back in the league again.

 

I don't see how Graham cannot be successful if Gruden wants this offense to move the ball. I still see it as Graham getting the workload with Dunn as a 3rd down back. Bennett is a backup and Caddy will be just trying to get healthy this season.

[Junkie 0]

Could Gruden be talking up Bennett in hopes of increasing his trade value?

 

I don't own any of the TB RBs, but I would think Graham is the guy. Didn't they give him a hefty contract in the offseason? I can see Dunn giving him a breather here and there, and Bennett being there if the other guys end up on a plane to Birmingham to see Dr. Andrews.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

1. Warrick Dunn a threat? I'm sorry, I've got to see that on the field before I believe it.

 

2. Caddy is done IMHO. Even before he went down he had pedestrian numbers. R.I.P Caddy.

 

3. As far as Bennett is concerned, he just wasn't that good. There wasn't much of a Tampa playbook to learn, run the ball, break tackles. That's about it. He couldn't do it.

 

I don't own Graham, but for the money, he's the most solid RB your gonna get out of that mes called the Bucs offense. I don't claim to more than the homers, but that's just my take

[Geohound 0]

There's no way Cadillac is back by Week 4. First off he'll start the season on PUP, which means he is out until Week 6 at the earliest. And even then, the Bucs have three weeks to decide whether to add him to the active roster or shut him down for the season. I don't think he'll be back this season, but 2009 might be the year for his return as it will be for his former Auburn teammate Ronnie Brown.

 

As for Bennett stealing some carries, possibly, although I would think Graham would be the foremost back in situations near the end zone. That's goes without saying relative to Dunn.

[Corky76 2]

I think you guys are all missing my point on this post or maybe I didn't explain what I meant by a "bust". Graham will still be the starter and will get a pretty good amount of carries, but not anything like he got at the end of last year when he was Gruden's ONLY option. Bennett has learned the offense now and has impressed and will see a lot more action than he did last year. Plus losing Davin Joseph will take its toll as well.

 

A guy in my money league drafted him at 3.4, when guys like Ryan Grant, T. Jones, Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Maroney, Turner and others are all still on the board. I think Graham is worth a pick in probably rd. 5 or later. But at rd.3 (his ADP) he will be a bust. If he's still around in rd.5 he'd be worth a roster spot, but not before then - too many other options out there. Just my opinion.

[wildbluefan 0]

Well, Graham is sitting there near my pick at the end of round ^, and I have him quede up #1....in 6th , he is a steal !!!!

[Geohound 0]

Anyone who would draft Graham over fellow '07 Fantasy HOF inductee (lol) Ryan Grant deserves to lose. Also Reggie Bush if it's a PPR league. I'd also go with Brandon Jacobs, who is looking to have the biggest contract year he can have.

 

Thomas Jones will be good, but you wonder if/when the workload of the last number of years will hurt him. Graham has fresher legs, plays behind a young offensive line, and is a good receiving back for PPR purposes. Could be a push.

 

Maroney continues to wish he lasted until the Colts' 1st round pick in 2006.

 

Turner, I'm not too crazy about, because I think his time in San Diego overrated him a bit. We'll see how he does behind that Falcons offensive line as opposed to the Chargers offensive line, who knows how he is as a pass protector (thankfully Norwood is worse though) and receiving back. He could finish with okay numbers though, like Thomas Jones last year.

[Junkie 0]

I think you guys are all missing my point on this post or maybe I didn't explain what I meant by a "bust". Graham will still be the starter and will get a pretty good amount of carries, but not anything like he got at the end of last year when he was Gruden's ONLY option. Bennett has learned the offense now and has impressed and will see a lot more action than he did last year. Plus losing Davin Joseph will take its toll as well.

 

A guy in my money league drafted him at 3.4, when guys like Ryan Grant, T. Jones, Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Maroney, Turner and others are all still on the board. I think Graham is worth a pick in probably rd. 5 or later. But at rd.3 (his ADP) he will be a bust. If he's still around in rd.5 he'd be worth a roster spot, but not before then - too many other options out there. Just my opinion.

 

I get your point... Graham will share the load, thus his value will be decreased. The same can be said for all those guys that you named that went after him in your draft.

Grant - Jackson

Jones - Leon

Jacobs, Bush, Maroney, Turner, etc...etc...

 

They all have backups that will have a sufficient number of touches. That said, Grant and Jacobs are in better offenses, but Jacobs, I think, will end up with less touches than Grant. Bush is also in a good offense, but he's not an every down back. I see him getting about 40-50 percent of the touches. I owned Maroney last year, and if there is one thing I learned about him is never, ever count on him to do anything. It's not his fault. He's a stud. It's that his coaches are smart enough to save him for the playoff run.

 

Out of all these guys, the most interesting is Turner. Norwood is fast, but he's proven just how good he is...or how good he isn't, depending on how you look at it. Grant and Turner I would draft ahead of Graham. The others are in the same teir, as far as I'm concerned.

[Junkie 0]

I think you guys are all missing my point on this post or maybe I didn't explain what I meant by a "bust". Graham will still be the starter and will get a pretty good amount of carries, but not anything like he got at the end of last year when he was Gruden's ONLY option. Bennett has learned the offense now and has impressed and will see a lot more action than he did last year. Plus losing Davin Joseph will take its toll as well.

 

A guy in my money league drafted him at 3.4, when guys like Ryan Grant, T. Jones, Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Maroney, Turner and others are all still on the board. I think Graham is worth a pick in probably rd. 5 or later. But at rd.3 (his ADP) he will be a bust. If he's still around in rd.5 he'd be worth a roster spot, but not before then - too many other options out there. Just my opinion.

 

I get your point... Graham will share the load, thus his value will be decreased. The same can be said for all those guys that you named that went after him in your draft.

Grant - Jackson

Jones - Leon

Jacobs, Bush, Maroney, Turner, etc...etc...

 

They all have backups that will have a sufficient number of touches. That said, Grant and Jacobs are in better offenses, but Jacobs, I think, will end up with less touches than Grant. Bush is also in a good offense, but he's not an every down back. I see him getting about 40-50 percent of the touches. I owned Maroney last year, and if there is one thing I learned about him is never, ever count on him to do anything. It's not his fault. He's a stud. It's that his coaches are smart enough to save him for the playoff run.

 

Out of all these guys, the most interesting is Turner. Norwood is fast, but he's proven just how good he is...or how good he isn't, depending on how you look at it. Grant and Turner I would draft ahead of Graham. The others are in the same teir, as far as I'm concerned.

[Reality 2,710]

Maroney is a stud?

 

Link?

[throttlers 0]

Graham is a player I've had a hard time getting a handle on.

 

On one hand he seems to be a mediocre back among a stable of mediocre backs. Dunn may be older, but is still a proven, smart player and will likely be in on passing downs. I think Dunn's impact is being minimized a bit. Bennett probably won't have a huge impact, but he will know the system now and Gruden seems to like him. The word is that Caddy's rehab is going well, and while week 4 might be a bit optimistic, he will certainly be back in the 2nd half of the season and could take away carries at fantasy crunch time.

 

That being said, Graham has a number of things going for him. He is clearly the starter and seems to be the best of the motley crew. Bennett is good for a couple gimmic plays a game but maybe not much else. Caddy has never lived up to the hype and isn't back yet. Dunn is 33 and has definitely lost some of his burst. Also, I think TBs O-Line is underrated. I see them running a lot of screens this year as well. Overall I think they will run the ball moderately well. They play the Saints and Falcons twice, which is good for the running game. Graham is definitely the goalline back and hits holes hard. The D is pretty good and should keep them in games.

 

Overall, I still don't think I'd be totally comfortable with him as my #2RB, but I'd be happy with him as a #3.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I think you guys are all missing my point on this post or maybe I didn't explain what I meant by a "bust". Graham will still be the starter and will get a pretty good amount of carries, but not anything like he got at the end of last year when he was Gruden's ONLY option. Bennett has learned the offense now and has impressed and will see a lot more action than he did last year. Plus losing Davin Joseph will take its toll as well.

 

A guy in my money league drafted him at 3.4, when guys like Ryan Grant, T. Jones, Jacobs, Reggie Bush, Maroney, Turner and others are all still on the board. I think Graham is worth a pick in probably rd. 5 or later. But at rd.3 (his ADP) he will be a bust. If he's still around in rd.5 he'd be worth a roster spot, but not before then - too many other options out there. Just my opinion.

As of right now I have no problem drafting him over any of those guys except Grant

[jocstrap 8]

Graham is so slow, I won't touch him in my next two big drafts, nor have I touched him in my early drafts. I picked up Bennett off the WW for the real value here.

[ronnydobbs 0]

All the reasons listed above are reaches, except for the Davin Joseph comment (which I believe this topic is really predicated on). Yes Joseph broke his foot and could come back anywhere from Game 2 to Game 6, we will have to wait on that. However, the Tampa team seems to have more depth at every position than any other team. Zuttah and Beunning are going to be filling in fro the injured Joseph and we will see how this works out during the next preseason games (both should get substantial playing time). The other four guys on the O-line are damn good, the upgrade with Faine at center coupled with the solid play of Trueblood and Sears means that the only question is with the two guys filling in. If BJ Askew is healthy come the start of the season then I see no reason to downgrade Graham at all because BJ can open holes at the fullback position and can provide help to Zuttah and Beunning.

 

The Bucs will still be a rushing/dink and dunk team and that means Graham will get his fair share of touches, so I don't drop him a bit.

[Bukakee 0]

Now that my big $ draft is over I figure it'd be safe to post this. I think Graham will be a huge bust and here is why:

 

1. The only reason he got so much playing time last year was because he was basically the only RB Tampa had by midseason besides Michael Bennett who hadn't yet learned the offense.

 

2. All Gruden keeps talking about this preseason is Bennett as far as RB's

 

3. Warrick Dunn is back and he will definitely get some carries.

 

4. Caddy will also be back sometime this season, maybe by week 4.

 

5. They've lost their best offensive lineman Davin Joseph for at least the first 6 weeks.

 

The only thing he really has going is that he'll be the best option at the goal line but that's about it.

I beg to differ on just abotu everythign you have said here. First there is XERO chance Caddy will be back before week seven as he will be on the PUP or worse the IR plus before he got hurt he was playing horrible. Caddy is very leiely another year away from playing in a live game again. Did you not watch any of the games last year? EG was a monster the last either weeks and helped carry many and FF owner to league titles. Gruden knows when he has a good thing and will work EG alot. Bennett will help and be a change of pace back at best with Dunn. Graham is also very good catching the ball and he is the only back on the team capable of being a workhorse and wearing teams down come the forth quarter which really helps in there home games when the heat is always high. The oline there is getting very good and one lose for a few weeks wont hurt much at all. I just feel Graham is going to have a good year and have no problems of taking him as a perfect #3 and decent #2 RB. He has some value as well in most of the drafts i have been in he is lasting until the 5th or even 6-7th round. I knwo alot also feel the way you do but i am not oen of them. he just looked to good to me last year for that.

[Shock6822 0]

I have Graham ranked right around Thomas Jones and Turner on my sheet, but my league is PPR, and he caught a good amount of passes last year. But yeah, I'd drop him down alot if I wasn't doing PPR.

[Dante 0]

Now that my big $ draft is over I figure it'd be safe to post this. I think Graham will be a huge bust and here is why:

 

1. The only reason he got so much playing time last year was because he was basically the only RB Tampa had by midseason besides Michael Bennett who hadn't yet learned the offense.

 

2. All Gruden keeps talking about this preseason is Bennett as far as RB's

 

3. Warrick Dunn is back and he will definitely get some carries.

 

4. Caddy will also be back sometime this season, maybe by week 4.

 

5. They've lost their best offensive lineman Davin Joseph for at least the first 6 weeks.

 

The only thing he really has going is that he'll be the best option at the goal line but that's about it.

 

I completely agree on all points, including:

 

6. Graham's $5MM contract is very team friendly.

 

Graham produced as the only option last season and is now mired in a RBBC. He has no defined role. Stay away...

[FantasyKing 4]

I agree...Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett and Cadillac Williams are pillars of health!

[Dr. Octopus 0]

Thomas Jones will be good, but you wonder if/when the workload of the last number of years will hurt him. Graham has fresher legs, plays behind a young offensive line, and is a good receiving back for PPR purposes. Could be a push.

 

 

What workload? Prior to last season which wasn't all that heavy he was in a RBBC with Cedric Benson.

[swirvenirvin 25]

I have Graham ranked right around Thomas Jones and Turner on my sheet, but my league is PPR, and he caught a good amount of passes last year. But yeah, I'd drop him down alot if I wasn't doing PPR.

 

Really how much can he move up, he shoudl only catch ~ 45 or so, avg RB probably catches ~35

[Pimptaddy 0]

Graham is a one hit wonder. He had a decent season last year and now morons are drafting him like he is Baby Jesus putting up 2000 yards and 30 TDs.

[Joey Gladstone 33]

Graham is a one hit wonder. He had a decent season last year and now morons are drafting him like he is Baby Jesus putting up 2000 yards and 30 TDs.

 

You crack me up. I'm glad you're back

[Geohound 0]

What workload? Prior to last season which wasn't all that heavy he was in a RBBC with Cedric Benson.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JoneTh00.htm

 

The last three years, Jones has averaged over 300 carries per season. If you want to include 2005, and not calculate formulated carries but touches, Jones has averaged 326.5 touches per season for the last 4 years. Now of course that's not the portent of doom that a season of 370 carries is, there's no guarantee something will happen - especially as relative inactivity in his earlier years could have granted Jones "fresher" legs than other backs - but who knows if age and workload don't creep on him like it did for say Rudi Johnson.

 

Not that I'm using Rudi as a specific comparison, just a noteworthy example. Even if Jones turned 30 this month, and Rudi isn't 29 years old until October. In Rudi's case, even though his first two years were also inactive, he averaged 346.33 carries per and 366.67 touches per from '04 to '06. That's a more hefty workload to be dealing with in comparison, especially as Jones is more of a slasher and played in the NFC for so long so he hasn't taken the same amount of punishment that Rudi has.

 

Just something to keep an eye on. There's no argument that Graham, although only a year-and-a-half younger, has fresher legs than Thomas Jones though.

[P.I. 0]

I know nothing about the guy, except, Tampa had no running game before he stepped on the field last year and he seemed to produce every week. That has to count for something? Why is he not the unquestioned starter with a bright future?