Luck and Skill in Fantasy Football

[De Novo 0]

Let's say a team is starting Brees, Peterson, DeAngelo, Gore, Megatron, Fitzgerald, Witten, Tennessee in a redraft. The #2 QB, #1 RB, #4 RB, #12 RB; #1 WR, #3 WR, #2 TE, #2 Defense. And the team was built to have (probably) the best matchups a team could have in the playoffs.

 

And with 4 teams in the playoffs in HTH matchups, it's what, a 50/50 shot at best the above team wins it all? So this late in the season, it's still at least 50% luck and no more than 50% skill.

 

I used to think it was an equal mix of luck and skill, but I'm not so sure after thinking through the math. Sure, there are owners that are so bad that almost no amount of skill will allow them to overcome the lack of skill. But it's still kind of depressing.

[ebterp 0]

Once the internet came along the skill factor dropped a ton. Now everyone has easy access to all the information. (Rankings, Injury report, etc). Getting an edge has to come thru the draft, pickups (if your league has some type of open pickup situation) and trades (if anybody in your league trades). People may argue but there is probably more of a skill factor in smaller leagues because you have more lineup decisions each week but that can be a crapshoot at best. I have the most points in my league (second best record) and figure my changes are 50/50 this week at best.

 

EB

[Perennial Contender 18]

Yep, after 15 years, I am retiring from Fantasy Football. I dominated my league, 300+ more total points than anyone. Then I lose out on a first round bye because first tie-breaker in our league is head to head not total points, then I get knocked out in the first round because my D & K get outscored by my opponents D&K 25-5 (lots by 11), and my opponent has his highest scoring game he has had all year.

 

Tooooooo much luck involved.

 

My entire league is thrilled that they wont have to face the best team in this PPR league the rest of the way.

 

Warner

Forte

Slaton (Barber)

SSmith

Marshall

Wayne (what happened to him)

Keller (Winslow)

Crosby

Titans

[edjr 6,580]

Yep, after 15 years, I am retiring from Fantasy Football. I dominated my league, 300+ more total points than anyone. Then I lose out on a first round bye because first tie-breaker in our league is head to head not total points, then I get knocked out in the first round because my D & K get outscored by my opponents D&K 25-5 (lots by 11), and my opponent has his highest scoring game he has had all year.

 

Tooooooo much luck involved.

 

My entire league is thrilled that they wont have to face the best team in this PPR league the rest of the way.

 

Warner

Forte

Slaton (Barber)

SSmith

Marshall

Wayne (what happened to him)

Keller (Winslow)

Crosby

Titans

 

I had Brady/Moss like a lot of people last year, I dominated my league and I lost because of bad weather in the semi-finals.

 

Stop whining like a little b!tch.

 

Next year you'll be ready for another year and you'll forget it all happened.

[KSB2424 3,148]

If all the teams in your league pay close attention, do their homework in regards to injuries, set their lineups each week, and have played for a few years (experience), then it is pretty much 99% luck.

 

Doesn't make it any less fun to me though.

[Perennial Contender 18]

I had Brady/Moss like a lot of people last year, I dominated my league and I lost because of bad weather in the semi-finals.

 

Stop whining like a little b!tch.

 

Next year you'll be ready for another year and you'll forget it all happened.

 

I am venting and you are my little b!tch.

[ssharpe12 0]

I lost last year when Westy took a knee at the one yard line.

[edjr 6,580]

I lost last year when Westy took a knee at the one yard line.

 

How did you lose because of that, when he never actually scored?

 

That's like saying "I lost because he was tackled at the 1"

[Saints1 4]

Ok so here is my rant about crappy luck. Had a 32 point lead in a PPR with bonus for long TDs, he had Deangelo against a def that gave up one rushing TD all year and we all know what happened last night. Today, I do hate fantasy football. How much time did I waste at home and at work to have it end like that. BUT, I will be back next year because I am stupid and addicted to this crap.

Thanks for listening.

[De Novo 0]

If all the teams in your league pay close attention, do their homework in regards to injuries, set their lineups each week, and have played for a few years (experience), then it is pretty much 99% luck.

 

There are still people just aren't very smart or make poor decisions. They do the same thing in fantasy football as they do in everyday life. But, even if I don't agree with your premise, it still may be 99% luck.

[KSB2424 3,148]

Most of it is just plain damn luck. However experience, keeping up with breaking news, making savvy trades/pick-ups, ect. will help you maximize your good luck, or minimize the effect of your bad luck. I'm not sure if the word is skill, but there are certain things that one can do to put themselves in a better position to succeed than the next guy. However in the end, who the hell knows what is gonna happen.

[TD Ryan2 316]

last night, at 9pm, I was down by 20 and sure to lose. BAD LUCK was the only explanation.

 

THEN

 

DeAngelo Williams ripped off 2 4th quarter TDs to go along with his 180yards and I SKILLFULLY beat my opponent by 10.

[TUM301 10]

Ya it`s very much about luck, but it does make the season even more interesting. High scorer in one league finished 5-8 out of playoffs. Second league 14 teamer #3 pts no playoffs but still shooting for $$$$ in both for total pts pool. Thinking of dropping one league and keeping one team and getting into a weekly pickem of all games vs the spread. At least in the pickem NFL contest I can lose all by myself and not have to consider the luck/skill question. Don`t ever see a day I`d drop FF completely though.

[edjr 6,580]

I don't think it is 99% luck.

 

I am definitely think there is a great deal of luck what happens on Sunday, absolutely.

 

In my big league, we're at 14 teams right now. Some people just never do well and never make the playoffs. Some people typically do well and frequently make the playoffs. Yes luck is involved, but there is more to it. Knowing how to trade and get value for players you drafted often is where people can enhance their chances of getting lucky.

[jdon 28]

I lost last year when Westy took a knee at the one yard line.

 

 

this mother dude again! I swear if I ever meet him he is going to have to kick my ass cause I am ######-punching him withou warning!!!

###### ###### ###### ###### mother dude eats cow ###### and I ###### hate him!!! goddamnit!

 

no, I am not over it!

[NewbieJr 541]

Yep, after 15 years, I am retiring from Fantasy Football. I dominated my league, 300+ more total points than anyone. Then I lose out on a first round bye because first tie-breaker in our league is head to head not total points, then I get knocked out in the first round because my D & K get outscored by my opponents D&K 25-5 (lots by 11), and my opponent has his highest scoring game he has had all year.

 

Tooooooo much luck involved.

 

My entire league is thrilled that they wont have to face the best team in this PPR league the rest of the way.

 

Warner

Forte

Slaton (Barber)

SSmith

Marshall

Wayne (what happened to him)

Keller (Winslow)

Crosby

Titans

Come on, dude. If you've been playing for 15 years, you probably benefitted from similar circumstances somewhere along the way. Maybe you didn't have a great team but had a timely point-surge at the right time. It happens.

 

Yes, luck is involved. Sometimes, too much luck. But it still comes down to drafting the right team and making the right roster moves and lineup changes. It's still more skill than luck.

 

To quit the sport is like taking your ball and going home. Makes you seem childish.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I had Brady/Moss like a lot of people last year, I dominated my league and I lost because of bad weather in the semi-finals.

 

Stop whining like a little b!tch.

 

Next year you'll be ready for another year and you'll forget it all happened.

 

 

How did you lose because of that, when he never actually scored?

 

That's like saying "I lost because he was tackled at the 1"

 

 

Take a break ed; you don't have to be a pr!ck everyday of your life. Christ you are a focking cuunt at times.

 

 

 

To the OP, luck sucks but there's no way to avoid it. I lost 1st seed this year because Houston decides to run one play with 2:10 seconds left and Slaton runs in a 50 yd TD. If they take a knee, I win $75.00 bucks. Demz da breaks man.

[TD Ryan2 316]

If you've been playing for 15 years, you probably benefitted from similar circumstances somewhere along the way.

 

sometimes you have the dominant team and go wire to wire.

sometimes you have the "hot" team at the right time.

sometimes you have a mediocre team with the right matchups in the playoffs.

 

it takes a lot of luck to actually win.

it takes a lot of preparation to get ready for your draft, make the right roster moves, and put your team in a position to win.

 

I'm not sure that "skill" is involved at all.

Preparation? Studying? to go along with Luck? sure.

Skill? no, not so much.

[IAMWood 6]

I am always contending, always. Sure lots of luck involved. But a fair amount is draft straregy, keeping up with injuries, knowing who gets hurt, knowing where good backups are. For instance, this year in my new dynasty league. I drafted Brady in the 1st, and Plax in the 3rd. Bad luck. Got Lance Moore in the 24th, and also drafted Sproles (whom I traded high and got two 1st rounders for), and D Rhodes. Good luck, but some of it you make. Seriously, no lie, I have missed playoffs once in any league in the last 19 years, and I have been playing 20 years. For a while, I figured out draft toRBs 1st while everyone is getting the high scoring QBs and I would wait til the 8th round to get a QB, I figured that out on my own, for real. One year I was bored and watched a preseason game on a whim with an unknown QB named Kurt Warner, he was drilling the ball but his receivers had seriously about 10 drops after he hit them right in the numbers. I drafted him in the last round as my QB3, he was the MVP, I guarantee he didn't go drafted in 99% of the leagues that year. Like I said, sometimes you make your own luck. It all comes around.

 

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

What isn't luck? Even a heart surgeon will tell you that there is decent amount of good fortune that goes into his craft. Hell, I'm a lawyer and I can tell you that no amount of preparation can guarentee you a predictable outcome. Sometimes you catch a break, sometimes you don't.

[KSB2424 3,148]

What isn't luck? Even a heart surgeon will tell you that there is decent amount of good fortune that goes into his craft. Hell, I'm a lawyer and I can tell you that no amount of preparation can guarentee you a predictable outcome. Sometimes you catch a break, sometimes you don't.

Ummmm, we don't actually play the games on Sunday.

 

I think that is the difference. Now if there was a fantasy doctor league where we get points for successful surguries and negative points if our patient dies then you might a good analogy.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

Ummmm, we don't actually play the games on Sunday.

 

I think that is the difference. Now if there was a fantasy doctor league where we get points for successful surguries and negative points if our patient dies then you might a good analogy.

 

And I don't actually sit in a jury box or the judges chamber where decisions are made. I have no control over the final outcome, just like I have no control over whether John Fox pulls Deangelo Williams at the goaline for Johnathan Stewart

[idiotec 31]

last night, at 9pm, I was down by 20 and sure to lose. BAD LUCK was the only explanation.

 

THEN

 

DeAngelo Williams ripped off 2 4th quarter TDs to go along with his 180yards and I SKILLFULLY beat my opponent by 10.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

When I played online gaming I'd get a kill shot and the guy would reply 'luck'. I'd respond with 'yep. Competition is ALWAYS my luck against your skill.' Then I'd hunt him down and shank him.

[KSB2424 3,148]

And I don't actually sit in a jury box or the judges chamber where decisions are made. I have no control over the final outcome, just like I have no control over whether John Fox pulls Deangelo Williams at the goaline for Johnathan Stewart

But you have a direct effect on the jury. You are actually part of the process. Fantasy footballer's have absolutely no say in what goes on on Sundays. None. Nada. Zero. A lawyer, or a surgeon does.

 

To be a lawyer you sure suck at analogies.

[LOD01 198]

It takes skill to draft a dynasty team like in my sig. 3 years of building has produced the most dominant team our league has ever seen. Most starter points in a season, most total points in a season.

 

Now I need the luck over the next 2 weeks. Skill gets you to the playoffs, luck wins it.

[FlaHawker 24]

How did you lose because of that, when he never actually scored?

 

That's like saying "I lost because he was tackled at the 1"

Stop the BS. You know damn well what happened and it cost many people a game.

[jerryskids 6,790]

Sure there is luck, as with any gambling. I place it between blackjack and live poker on the luck scale. I've got a keeper league team that should have won by 30 points each game as per pre-draft expectations, and worked for years to develop it. But Edwards, Plax, and Holmes collectively shiot the bed, and I'm tied for 3rd with an outside shot at second, but can't win (no playoffs).

 

Conversely, I drafted at 16 in a 16 team redraft this year (actually 32 teams, 2 drafts) and am in the conf championship with the SB next week if I win. Originally drafted Hass, MJD (ppr league), T Jones, TO, Bowe. I hated the draft and thought I was dead, and hated that I took TO over Bush. But I traded for Warner when he was named the starter (skill?), picked up Breaston (skill?). I question those only because my final lineup, knock on wood, has performed above expectations AND been injury free.

 

I think we all need to realize that at the end of the day, we do this because it is fun and it keeps us interested in all of the games.

[IAMWood 6]

I think we all need to realize that at the end of the day, we do this because it is fun and it keeps us interested in all of the games.

 

You sound like Jerry Springer bro.

 

 

[Dr.Grimm 0]

I am always contending, always. Sure lots of luck involved. But a fair amount is draft straregy, keeping up with injuries, knowing who gets hurt, knowing where good backups are. For instance, this year in my new dynasty league. I drafted Brady in the 1st, and Plax in the 3rd. Bad luck. Got Lance Moore in the 24th, and also drafted Sproles (whom I traded high and got two 1st rounders for), and D Rhodes. Good luck, but some of it you make. Seriously, no lie, I have missed playoffs once in any league in the last 19 years, and I have been playing 20 years. For a while, I figured out draft toRBs 1st while everyone is getting the high scoring QBs and I would wait til the 8th round to get a QB, I figured that out on my own, for real. One year I was bored and watched a preseason game on a whim with an unknown QB named Kurt Warner, he was drilling the ball but his receivers had seriously about 10 drops after he hit them right in the numbers. I drafted him in the last round as my QB3, he was the MVP, I guarantee he didn't go drafted in 99% of the leagues that year. Like I said, sometimes you make your own luck. It all comes around.

 

You keep going on about that Sproles deal and that is fine. However, I did not trade for him because his value was high at that particular time. I wanted Sproles for the future much more than I did for this season. Sproles appears to at least be able to do something in the NFL, something NONE of the rookies that are going to be in the draft next year have done yet. I am new(1st EVER) to dynasty leagues and I could be way off on this. My thinking was that since I already have LT, Sproles is a nice handcuff in a league where RBs are tough to come by. Also, IMO, Sproles has shown that he could make it as a starting RB one of these days. For every ADP and EDGE there are dozens of Curtis Enis' and Ki-Jana Carter's. It seemed Sproles has a much higher probability to be something in the NFL than someone I might draft in the rookie draft.

 

As I said though, I have never been in a dynasty league and could be way off base here in my rationale. Maybe one of you guys can help me out here. What am I not taking into account??? What am I missing here??? What makes this deal so outrageous? I am being serious. I have played FF for a long time but never in a dynasty league. I realize I will learn some lessons the hard way when it comes to dynasty leagues and maybe this is one of them.

[flyjam 1]

obviously luck is involved, but skill is highly involved as well. i make the playoffs pretty much every year and i'm sure a lot of the people who care enough to post here have similar track records. fact is, fantasy football is a reasonably good investment if you have some common sense and stay on top of the breaking news, because there will always be people in your league that don't. it would be silly to think that you're going to win a league of 12 teams every year just because you're the best owner, of course. winning such a league 10% of the time is enough to make it a good investment.

[Kingstowne Dealers 14]

But you have a direct effect on the jury. You are actually part of the process. Fantasy footballer's have absolutely no say in what goes on on Sundays. None. Nada. Zero. A lawyer, or a surgeon does.

 

To be a lawyer you sure suck at analogies.

 

No. You do not have a direct effect on the jury. You would like, to but you don'. They make up their own minds. Once you rest your case it's a crapshoot, similar to setting your lineup.

 

Don't bother responding, I have you on ignore

[listen2me 23 1,873]

Takes decent amount of skill to make the playoffs with a shot to win it all year in and year out. Once in the playoffs I'd say it is about 90% luck to win it all.

 

I'm not sure if the idiots in that one thread who say D. Williams would be an example of the skill it takes to start your studs, or just an example of idiots that are lucky to make it to the playoffs....?

[KSB2424 3,148]

No. You do not have a direct effect on the jury. You would like, to but you don'. They make up their own minds. Once you rest your case it's a crapshoot, similar to setting your lineup.

Look, I'm not trying to bust your balls but did you just say that a lawyer has NO effect on a jury? Isn't that a part of a lawyers job in a jury trial to prove (or disprove) something to a jury. Doesn't a lawyer "argue" a premise or a point to sway a jury for their client or the state? Doesn't a lawyer actually meet the jury face to face and have an effect on how a case plays out?

 

That in no way is similar to setting a fantasy lineup. Unless you are an actual NFL player, or coach, or somebody that could alter the game and play, then we common folk have absolutely no bearing on what happens on Sunday. We are usually not even in the same focking state.

 

Sorry, but it is a really dumb analogy and has no value.

 

Don't bother responding, I have you on ignore

 

Did you just flip over the checkers table? Or take you ball and go home?

[Dallas_Empire 0]

FF is a large part luck. You can draft a dream team and even collude to make the team better, but in the end it all comes down the the matchups and luck. Maybe a team has the bad luck of playing against lesser teams the week they blow up for 140 points. This can happen several weeks and ruin a fantasy season by giving a title caliber team a few losses to make them miss the playoffs. How many teams lost reliable players to injuries? How many owners who had horrible drafts made the playoffs because they had the top waiver pick? I have seen guys have dream teams only to miss the playoffs due to the circumstances above. I have seen scrubs have great games against top defenses when every fantasy site said to bench them. I have seen reliable stud players who have dream matchups against the worst defenses in the NFL have bad games when every fantasy site said to play them. You can't predict performance regardless of the matchups and even a smart owner who does everything right will still get burned a significant amount of times. Fantasy football is at least 50% luck and anyone who does not admit this fact is ignorant.

[gitrdun 18]

Yep, after 15 years, I am retiring from Fantasy Football. I dominated my league, 300+ more total points than anyone. Then I lose out on a first round bye because first tie-breaker in our league is head to head not total points, then I get knocked out in the first round because my D & K get outscored by my opponents D&K 25-5 (lots by 11), and my opponent has his highest scoring game he has had all year.

 

Tooooooo much luck involved.

 

My entire league is thrilled that they wont have to face the best team in this PPR league the rest of the way.

 

Warner

Forte

Slaton (Barber)

SSmith

Marshall

Wayne (what happened to him)

Keller (Winslow)

Crosby

Titans

 

 

 

 

This why I argue every year to that the tie breakers should be total points and not head to head. Just because you have one bad week probaly with players off, should you be penalized for the season. What is the best way to measure who has the best team? TOTAL POINTS

[madd futher mucker 36]

It is human nature to pat ourselves on the back as skillful if we win the league championship, but curse the 'luck factor' when we get eliminated. But this is the reality:

 

Over the Short Term, ie, any one team, one season there is a HUGE luck factor involved in winning the league championship.

 

If you owned, say, 4-6 teams each season there is STILL a very high luck factor - if you win ONE championship with 4-6 teams in 12 team leagues, you've beaten the odds, but it is impossible to say if you did it by luck or skill (probably some combination of both).

 

Now if you owned 100 teams competed over, say 15 years, the skill factor perhaps starts to catch up or take precedence over the luck factor. But most of us do not measure our fantasy results over the long haul, and even 100 leagues is not enough to overcome extremely bad luck when playing against opponents on almost the same level of skill.

 

I am continually amazed by the many who would be the first to kick the least skilled players out of the league because they might make a bonehead trade or waiver wire drop which might unduly reward whoever is the lucky beneficiary (isn't it amazing that it is never YOU that gets 'unfairly rewarded'), and replace him with player of a much higher skill level. Over the long haul, all they did is impair their chances of winning their league - obviously the weaker the level of competition (relative to your real skill level), the greater your chances of winning

 

Also, if you are extremely skillful, I believe it is possible to make the play-offs (top 6 in a 12 teamer) about 2/3 to 75% of the time against reasonably experienced fantasy players. But then the chances of you making the CHAMPIONSHIP against the other top 5 teams in your league by winning 3 games in a row is going to be only slightly above 15% REGARDLESS of your skill level (about 25% if you have a bye and only have to win 2 games in a row).

 

The skill/luck balance compares very similarly to winning at holdem poker, even for pros. The chances of winning or losing any one session is almost entirely random.

 

But the chance of a player winning over about 300-400 sessions of play (about a year's worth of play or about 500,000 hands) is almost a certainty if you are the most skillful player at most tables you play. (But Please Note: this would compare to playing about 1/2 a million fantasy weekends worth of games - several hundred fantasy lifetimes).

 

Conversely, even if you are not a very skilled poker player, your chances of winning any single session is actually pretty good, but over 500,000 hands against superior competition, you will go broke because the luck will even out over that many hands and skill over the long haul ultimately separates the winners and losers.

[IAMWood 6]

You keep going on about that Sproles deal and that is fine. However, I did not trade for him because his value was high at that particular time. I wanted Sproles for the future much more than I did for this season. Sproles appears to at least be able to do something in the NFL, something NONE of the rookies that are going to be in the draft next year have done yet. I am new(1st EVER) to dynasty leagues and I could be way off on this. My thinking was that since I already have LT, Sproles is a nice handcuff in a league where RBs are tough to come by. Also, IMO, Sproles has shown that he could make it as a starting RB one of these days. For every ADP and EDGE there are dozens of Curtis Enis' and Ki-Jana Carter's. It seemed Sproles has a much higher probability to be something in the NFL than someone I might draft in the rookie draft.

 

As I said though, I have never been in a dynasty league and could be way off base here in my rationale. Maybe one of you guys can help me out here. What am I not taking into account??? What am I missing here??? What makes this deal so outrageous? I am being serious. I have played FF for a long time but never in a dynasty league. I realize I will learn some lessons the hard way when it comes to dynasty leagues and maybe this is one of them.

 

It's more of me giving you a hard time than anything else bro. Without looking at your current roster, you had a tough year, I am not sure trading away first rounders for Sproles is a good deal necessarily, but you do and seem happy with it, I am happy with with it, so it is a win-win. Part of fantasy is talkin trash right. Just blowin you crap dude. My personal view of Sporoles is that he won't be an every down back, he will at best split time with someone else, but splitting time could mean Charles Johnson or D. Williams numbers too. He does have skills.

 

[De Novo 0]

No. You do not have a direct effect on the jury. You would like, to but you don'. They make up their own minds. Once you rest your case it's a crapshoot, similar to setting your lineup.

 

Don't bother responding, I have you on ignore

So if you were the most unlikeable and mean-spirited lawyer ever and were intentionally rude toward the jury, you're telling me that will not impact the jury's decision. You're wrong.

[gemynd 0]

First 5 rounds in a redraft league = luck.

Last 10+ rounds = skill.