Early, early rookie draft look

[DixieDevils 0]

With my year-round dynasty league allowing for trades and so forth (and the fact that I have 3 of the top 16 picks in this year's draft), I figured why not take a look at what we know (and speculate) right now.

 

Here are the Top 5 picks as I see them right now:

1. RB Knowshon Moreno

2. RB Chris Wells

3. WR Michael Crabtree

4. RB LeSean McCoy

5. RB Shonn Greene

 

-- Crabtree is the wildcard as to whether anybody goes for the best WR early in the draft, as I suspect will happen in my league.

 

Other possible first-round picks as I see them right now include:

WR Percy Harvin, QB Matthew Stafford, QB Sam Bradford, WR Jeremy Maclin (assuming he's coming out), QB Tim Tebow (if he comes out), RB Javon Ringer, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and RB CJ Spiller

 

Possible 2nd-rounders who could be high picks include:

QB Marc Sanchez, TE Chase Coffman and TE Brandon Pettigrew

 

Who else do you add to this list? Anybody up or down. I'm picking 5, 12 and 16, so I'm trying to gauge my chances as I rebuild my team a year after a championship (and stupid trades).

[enis_44 0]

I have no actual knowledge of college players, but am also very interested in what's going to be there for dynasty drafts this year. Quick first impression is that we're not gonna see another Rb draft like the one we just had for quite some time. I guess if this year showed us anything though, it's don't be afraid to draft a rookie back even if he's being labled only a "3rd down" type. (slaton)

[FlaHawker 24]

I have no actual knowledge

Understatement of the year

[enis_44 0]

Understatement of the year

Shouldn't you be somewhere else being excited about a natural disaster or some other tragedy?

 

 

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to buy real estate in Gaza!!"

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to work for Ford!!"

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to be John McCain!!"

[jdswan922 0]

With my year-round dynasty league allowing for trades and so forth (and the fact that I have 3 of the top 16 picks in this year's draft), I figured why not take a look at what we know (and speculate) right now.

 

Here are the Top 5 picks as I see them right now:

1. RB Knowshon Moreno

2. RB Chris Wells

3. WR Michael Crabtree

4. RB LeSean McCoy

5. RB Shonn Greene

 

-- Crabtree is the wildcard as to whether anybody goes for the best WR early in the draft, as I suspect will happen in my league.

 

Other possible first-round picks as I see them right now include:

WR Percy Harvin, QB Matthew Stafford, QB Sam Bradford, WR Jeremy Maclin (assuming he's coming out), QB Tim Tebow (if he comes out), RB Javon Ringer, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and RB CJ Spiller

 

Possible 2nd-rounders who could be high picks include:

QB Marc Sanchez, TE Chase Coffman and TE Brandon Pettigrew

 

Who else do you add to this list? Anybody up or down. I'm picking 5, 12 and 16, so I'm trying to gauge my chances as I rebuild my team a year after a championship (and stupid trades).

I have the number 1 pick and I am tempted to take Crabtree. If not Crabtree, then it would be Moreno or McCoy. I am not that impressed with Wells as a football player. While I think he is extremely talented, I don't want a guy who sits when he is feeling alittle sore. My rankings would be a little top-heavy with WRs. I really like the top 5 or so WR prospects. We also have IDP, and I only see one IDP rookie (as of right now) that I would consider spending a 1st rounder, and that is Aaron Curry.

 

My rankings would look something like this (though I am sure this changes by draft day):

 

1. Michael Crabtree

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Knowshon Moreno

4. Chris Wells

5. Jeremy Maclin

6. Shonn Greene

7. Darrius Heyward-Bey

8. Kenny Britt

9. Percy Harvin

10. C.J. Spiller

11. Sam Bradford

12. Hakeem Nicks

 

I would have included DeMarco Murray before the injury. Others that were close were Brandon LaFell, Jarrett Dillard, Jermaine Gresham, and Donald Brown.

[Me_2006 14]

With my year-round dynasty league allowing for trades and so forth (and the fact that I have 3 of the top 16 picks in this year's draft), I figured why not take a look at what we know (and speculate) right now.

 

Here are the Top 5 picks as I see them right now:

1. RB Knowshon Moreno

2. RB Chris Wells

3. WR Michael Crabtree

4. RB LeSean McCoy

5. RB Shonn Greene

 

-- Crabtree is the wildcard as to whether anybody goes for the best WR early in the draft, as I suspect will happen in my league.

 

Other possible first-round picks as I see them right now include:

WR Percy Harvin, QB Matthew Stafford, QB Sam Bradford, WR Jeremy Maclin (assuming he's coming out), QB Tim Tebow (if he comes out), RB Javon Ringer, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey and RB CJ Spiller

 

Possible 2nd-rounders who could be high picks include:

QB Marc Sanchez, TE Chase Coffman and TE Brandon Pettigrew

 

Who else do you add to this list? Anybody up or down. I'm picking 5, 12 and 16, so I'm trying to gauge my chances as I rebuild my team a year after a championship (and stupid trades).

 

Overall not a bad list really, but please take Tebow off there. Good deeds don't score touchdowns.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I'll give it a try, but only with RB's and WRs - this is based on talent in the 'right situation' to exploit that talent. It doesn't even pay to think about slotting QBs this early without a clue as to the situation they'll be stepping into.

 

Tier 1 RBs: 1. Knowshon Moreno, 2. Shon Greene, 3. LeShon McCoy, 4. Donald Brown

Tier 1 WRs: 1. Michael Crabtree, 2. Jeremy Machlin 3. Percy Harvin, 4 tie: Darrius Heywood-Bey / Jarred Dillard

 

Tier 2 RBs: 5. Beannie Wells (huge bust factor here IMO) 6. C J Spiller 7. James Davis (yes, both Clemson RBs)

Tier 2 WRs: 6. Kenny Britt, 7. Hakeem Nicks, 8 Marshwan Gilyard (if he declares)

 

That is my top 15 for projected dynasty fantasy impact. It does NOT reflect where I might think they'll go in the actual draft. The Wrs are definitely the strength of this draft class, but people always want to seem to draft RBs very high.

 

As I mentioned above, it is impossible to slot rookie Qbs until I know what team they have landed on, and I really don't like them to have to start right away, especially if their offensive line is suspect. (I did draft Cutler his rookie year. But he and guys like Ryan and Flacco are the rare EXCEPTION. Most QBs that are thrust into the starting line-up too soon actually regress and increase their BUST potential IMO - particularly if they come from a college system that does not require them to go through multiple check-down progressions. But Stafford and Bradford are rated pretty even and are the cream of this class, I guess. IMO there is not a TE worth top 20 consideration for skill positions in this years draft. Pettigrew is probably the best here.

[davidbostonisgood 2]

Overall not a bad list really, but please take Tebow off there. Good deeds don't score touchdowns.

...but Tim Tebow does. BOOM!

[madd futher mucker 36]

...but Tim Tebow does. BOOM!

 

Tebow has almost NO chance to make it as a starting QB in the NFL - especially if he is pushed into a starting role before he spends 3 years in a back-up role learning how the position is really supposed to be played. He is one of the least NFL-ready QBs who will be drafted this year, and any team that drafts him before round 5 is making a big mistake IMO.

[FlaHawker 24]

Shouldn't you be somewhere else being excited about a natural disaster or some other tragedy?

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to buy real estate in Gaza!!"

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to work for Ford!!"

FlaHawker, "It's an EXCITING time to be John McCain!!"

Hi sweetness

[FlaHawker 24]

Tebow has almost NO chance to make it as a starting QB in the NFL - especially if he is pushed into a starting role before he spends 3 years in a back-up role learning how the position is really supposed to be played. He is one of the least NFL-ready QBs who will be drafted this year, and any team that drafts him before round 5 is making a big mistake IMO.

What scouting department do you work for? And can you please give your scouting report on Tom Brady before he was drafted. TIA

[DixieDevils 0]

Doesn't matter now about Tim Tebow. He's staying at Florida. Take him off the board.

[madd futher mucker 36]

What scouting department do you work for? And can you please give your scouting report on Tom Brady before he was drafted. TIA

 

I'm no scout and I actually have not seen that much of Tebow other than watching one televised game and some YouTube clips. But here's what one NFL scout has to say:

 

From The Inside: Talking With A Scout

Authored by Jeff Risdon - 27th October, 2008 - 8:08 pm

Scout: You know, I heard a caller to some radio show who nailed it on Tim Tebow. You don't want to be his first head coach or the guy who drafts him, because you'll be long gone before he ever does anything positive for you. I think there is a lot of truth in that. The kid has a lot of things working for him, but he has horrible mechanics, footwork. The lack of patience from that offense is what has ruined Alex Smith.

 

If that first read isn't there, they're just not taught how to handle that. They're taught to take off or to just wing it. That works at college but it gets coaches fired in the NFL. ...the expectation level for him is going to be so much higher than he can ever come close to for his first few years. He isn't as good a passer as Vince Young and look at how awful he's been. The Titans were winning in spite of him and that is not going to repeat itself with this kid.

 

Another person said and I strongly believe: "The QB's that are taught in college to read the D and find the open WR are the ones who should have a more seamless transition to the NFL. But if they're taught to either lock into their 1st read or run, they will struggle in the NFL because everyone's an elite athlete in the pro's. Tebow in the NFL will be beheaded within 2 games with that mindset."

 

Here's another: "There are always going to be those who are Tebow-worshippers and desperately want him to succeed at the next level while also thinking he was the best player in the history of college football. That last overhyped myth aside, Tebow is actually very reminiscent of Meyer's last full-time QB (Alex Smith of Utah). Smith was drafted #1 overall and could not beat out J.T.O'Sullivan this year. Pretty sad. Why? It wasn't because of injuries, Smith couldn't read defenses because (as posted recently), Meyer's system requires ONE throw and then run. There is no going through progressions. Tebow has not shown that ability, his touch is poor between his wobbly balls and quite often too low to be caught, even by the amazingly-gifted track stars on Florida's team. The only thing undeniable about his is that he is a fiery competitor."

 

And more: "One of the surest things I took away from watching that game was that Tebow will not make a quality starting QB in the NFL. He has horrendous foot work, throwing mechanics and defensive recognition skills. His 1st Int was just plan awful."

 

Continuing: "Will he make it at the next level? Not a snowball's chance in hell as a QB. He has a very slow delivery, is not very accurate, his throwing motion is terrible and if it wasn't for a bunch of track stars who bail him out with their blinding speed his TDs thrown would be significantly less. As for his running ability, that will not be evident at the next level unless he plays FB. So far the only thing out of this pious most-overhyped player in college football history's mouth is that he wants to play QB."

 

One more comment: "The guy has intangibles, heart, and leadership. But personally, I don't see NFL QB skills there. Of course, I don't know much about rating prospects, but my untrained eyes saw better NFL QB play out of Brett Ratliff in the NYJ preseason.

Still, Tebow probably has a place in the NFL. Like another poster said, a FB/TE type role might suit him fine."

 

Another: "I think he's got the chance to be what Kordell was, except with off the charts dedication and intelligence. He's got a strong arm and his accuracy isn't bad; his throwing motion and his footwork are his biggest issues. No reason he can't work on his reads. He's going to have to participate in the combine, I'd imagine, and he'll be a workout warrior. His 40 won't be amazing but he'll have huge bench press numbers, solid agility numbers, and he's the typical "looks great without a shirt on" guy. It's kind of rare to see the workout warrior guy also be the intangibles guy, which is why I think it's crazy to let him slide too far in the draft.

Treat him like Kordell. Have him be a utility TE/WR/FB for a year or two. Have him take 2% of team snaps as a QB his rookie year, then 5% his second year and see what happens. Maybe by his third year you can switch him to a QB."

 

Some more: "Tebow needs to shore up his accuracy, reading and manipulating the defense, his mechanics especially moving to his right, and be more patient in the pocket. Better prospects tend to have these skills already but need time to adjust to the speed of the game and reading more complex schemes while shoring up minor mechanical issues.

 

I can't stand Florida, but I can't help but like Tebow and I'm not one of those people that are big on people preaching every second about their beliefs. I do like his earnest nature and his teammates respond well to him. He's a fiery competitor.

 

I really think he's a second day prospect with potential because he works on his game and it's a story I very much want to follow because I think he's a player that can develop but it all depends on where he goes and the attitude of the team that takes him.

 

And yes, his release is sllooooowww...which is why I think a team that wants him as a QB will need to be willing to wait awhile and not think they can convince him to be a TE or LB if it doesn't work out after a year or two."

 

 

"Would it not be appropriate for Tebow to sit down with Urban Meyer and say 'Coach, I am considering coming back to UF for another season. However, my skills will not grow further in this offense. So if I come back and play in the same exact offense my prospects for the NFL will be no different than they are now. If you can commit to me that ~ 50% of the snaps that i will take in my senior year will be directly behind in the center in a more "pro style" offense, you can have me come back as your QB. Otherwise, I will go into the NFL and get drafted in the 3rd/4th round and start developing the skills that I will need to be an NFL player now'. "Sounds great in theory, but Meyer isn't in the business of getting Tebow ready for the NFL, he's in the business of competing for collegiate national championships."

 

Confirmed from Rotoworld: Florida QB Tim Tebow announced that he will return to the university for his senior year.

Tebow received mixed feedback from the NFL Draft Advisory Board. "I feel like I'm a role model and a lot of times people start things and don't finish them," he added. "I didn't want to be like that." Tebow has a chance to be considered among the greatest college players of all time as a senior. He already has one Heisman Trophy and has helped the Gators win two BCS titles.

 

I think the NFL Draft Advisory Board told him exactly what these guys are saying: that his game needs work to make it at the next level. But my personal take is that ironically, Tebow SHOULD HAVE come out this year - that for his long-term NFL success, staying at Florida was a mistake. He will NOT learn NFL QB skills from Meyer and his spread offense. He will not learn how to improve his mechanics. IMO his best chance to succeed as an NFL QB would have been to get drafted THIS YEAR by a team that doesn't have an immediate QB need - where he can sit, watch, and learn for 2-3 years from a real QB coach. By all accounts he is very intelligent, a hard worker, and a great leader. In time, he COULD re-make himself into a GREAT NFL QB. I just personally doubt it will happen that way. Next year there is a reasonable chance that he will be the 1st QB drafted, and then he'll likely be thrown to the NFL wolves into a bad 'immediate need' situation - like JaMarcus Russell and Tav Jackson were.

 

 

 

Sorry - I let Davidbostonisgood get me to hijack this thread. The topic was early early draft look. Since Tebow is not coming out anyway, I'd really like to hear lots of other opinions on who YOU considered highly draftworthy for fantasy purposes, and why.

[madd futher mucker 36]

I sure wish I hadn't diverted this thread by responding to the Tebow issue.

 

IMO the thread deserves to be bumped on the merits of keeping the discussion going of the offensive skill talent available in the 2009 draft. Anyone who is in a dynasty or keeper league should be very interested in this topic, and the top 6-10 players are probably worth slotting into your re-draft league draft.

 

So just to keep the topic going, I'm cutting and pasting some comments by one of my favorite rookie talent evaluators (from another board) - I hope neither Sigmond Bloom nor the FFtoday staff have a problem with me doing this:

 

Bloom (Jan 10) - "I'll be writing the first Bloom 100 after the ultimate draft road trip concludes (about a month), but I'll say early that Moreno and McCoy look like natural RBs to me and have top notch instincts and good enough tools. Greene is a legit NFL power back, I'm less sure about Brown. Maclin could be scary good because unlike most of the all-around playmaker types to come out of college, he's got great size, too. Crabtree's a stone cold stud, as close to a sure thing as there is in this class. Wells reminds me of Mendenhall - terrific size and initial burst combo, but I dont like the instincts and pad level. Spiller could be Steve Slaton, could be Leon Washington, all depends on who drafts him, and their plans for him.

 

I will say this is shaping up to a nice class of receiving TEs, with or without Gresham - Coffman, Casey, Beckum, and Pettigrew all have the chance to be impact players in an NFL passing offense.

 

I am going to be watching a ton of tape on all of these guys over the next 4 months, refining my thoughts, but those are my first impressions from watching them in entertainment mode as opposed to scouting mode over the course of this season."

[the_risen_demon 0]

Javon Ringer is getting no love in this thread. I would take him over Moreno. I know everyone is gaga over him, but when I watch the highlights, I see a lot of incredible athleticism (spin moves, hurdles), but I don't see the fundamentals (consistent leg drive on contact, body lean, balance) that really translate to the next level. Ringer brings all of the solid fundamentals and has the resume that makes me believe he could be a feature back in a league in which that's a dying breed. McCoy would also be high on my draft board, but the word I heard is that he's returning to Pitt. Seems like an odd move in what doesn't seem like a strong draft class, but it's his life. I like what I see of Wells on tape, but as others have noted, I'm not sure about his passion for the game. Still, I wouldn't take him less than third in a rookie draft.

[De Novo 0]

Javon Ringer is getting no love in this thread. I would take him over Moreno. I know everyone is gaga over him, but when I watch the highlights, I see a lot of incredible athleticism (spin moves, hurdles), but I don't see the fundamentals (consistent leg drive on contact, body lean, balance) that really translate to the next level. Ringer brings all of the solid fundamentals and has the resume that makes me believe he could be a feature back in a league in which that's a dying breed. McCoy would also be high on my draft board, but the word I heard is that he's returning to Pitt. Seems like an odd move in what doesn't seem like a strong draft class, but it's his life. I like what I see of Wells on tape, but as others have noted, I'm not sure about his passion for the game. Still, I wouldn't take him less than third in a rookie draft.

I agree with you on Moreno. He reminds me of a Reggie Bush / DeShaun Foster combo. But I disagree on Ringer. He looks like a good college RB who beats up weaker combination but won't have enough in the NFL. See his bowl game this year.

[De Novo 0]

Depending on where players land, I would tier the players along these lines:

 

Beanie Wells

LeSean McCoy

Michael Crabtree

 

Knowshon Moreno

Jeremy Maclin

Shonn Greene

 

Kenny Britt

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Hakeem Nicks

Jermaine Gresham

 

Percy Harvin

Matthew Stafford

Juaquin Iglesias

 

Jermiah Johnson (something about this guy)

CJ Spiller (not high on him)

Mark Sanchez

Sam Bradford (not high on him)

Javon Ringer (not high on him)

Donald Brown (I know nothing of him)

[Cuse9 128]

Depending on where players land, I would tier the players along these lines:

That is the key. Anything we post is merely speculation and having fun. For all we know something crazy happens and Crabtree ends up in Arizona and has to sit behind two great wr's, like what happened to Randy Moss his rookie year.....oh wait?!

[the_risen_demon 0]

That is the key. Anything we post is merely speculation and having fun. For all we know something crazy happens and Crabtree ends up in Arizona and has to sit behind two great wr's, like what happened to Randy Moss his rookie year.....oh wait?!

 

Last year, I had picks 1.04 and 1.05 in our rookie draft. I talked myself out of Matt Forte and took Ray Rice at 1.05. I liked Forte better as a back, but I liked Rice too and I thought his situation was better. Well, right about Baltimore featuring the run, right about McGahee's role decreasing, wrong about Rice picking up the slack. Lesson learned - in a dynasty, don't worry about the situation, at least with running backs. At least I took Chris Johnson with 1.04.

[madd futher mucker 36]

Donald Brown (I know nothing of him)

 

Donald Brown reminds me about what most said last year of Matt Forte - he does everything well, but nothing exceptional.

What I do know about Brown is that he's about the strongest and most dedicated guy on the team - not an exceptional talent, but he just out-works everybody. He's good enough, and I'm much higher on him than I am on Beanie Wells, who has twice as much natural talent. FWIW, I very much see Beanie Wells as a Cedric Benson clone. If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong - but I'll let someone else draft Beanie.

 

It turns out that in the right situation, doing everything well is plenty good enough. There were a whole bunch of us who passed on Matt Forte in favor of Ray Rice or Rashard Mendenhall (both of whom still have a chance of making an impact.)

 

One think I learned from last year is the importance of patience with RBs. I held on to DeAngelo Williams until about the 6th game of this year. And of course only AFTER I traded him, he suddenly became just about the best RB in the NFL, showing the talent I gave him credit for before he was a rookie 2 1/2 years ago.. and then, on the other hand, there was Maroney in the same draft rated just about as high. Damn, RBs are hard to figure out.

[enis_44 0]

Last year, I had picks 1.04 and 1.05 in our rookie draft. I talked myself out of Matt Forte and took Ray Rice at 1.05. I liked Forte better as a back, but I liked Rice too and I thought his situation was better. Well, right about Baltimore featuring the run, right about McGahee's role decreasing, wrong about Rice picking up the slack. Lesson learned - in a dynasty, don't worry about the situation, at least with running backs. At least I took Chris Johnson with 1.04.

I think sometimes talent shines and other times it's situation. Look at Addai. In 2006 he went very high in dynasty circles based on situation and then produced some really nice numbers. It's looking more and more these days that he's nowhere near the most talented back in that draft class, but people that picked him based on situation got some real nice return there for awhile.

You know. Wasn't Darren McFadden the far and away winner of the "most talented Rookie Back" award last year? What did that get people?

 

Course I'm also the guy that has hung onto D-Will since '06 wishing he was Addai or Mojo only to win the title this year. Bottom line. You never know!

[the_risen_demon 0]

Wasn't Darren McFadden the far and away winner of the "most talented Rookie Back" award last year?

 

True enough about the unpredicatability of our little hobby, but McFadden didn't win any awards from me. Those who were around last off-season probably remember him as on of the most controversial players going into 2008. You loved him or hated him. I thought he didn't have the lower body strength to be a good NFL back, and that his highlight reel is full of big gains from breaking runs outside, which tells you very little about what kind of NFL back he will be. Then again, I also thought Felix Jones would amount to little more than a kick returner, and he looked like a pretty good back until he got hurt.

[enis_44 0]

True enough about the unpredicatability of our little hobby, but McFadden didn't win any awards from me. Those who were around last off-season probably remember him as on of the most controversial players going into 2008. You loved him or hated him. I thought he didn't have the lower body strength to be a good NFL back, and that his highlight reel is full of big gains from breaking runs outside, which tells you very little about what kind of NFL back he will be. Then again, I also thought Felix Jones would amount to little more than a kick returner, and he looked like a pretty good back until he got hurt.

I'm with you. There's still plenty of time for Fjones to be a good NFL back. Dude showed some real ability early on last year.

 

Also, every one of us fell for the Rice hype in one league or another. It was out of control. At least I'm not the guy in my dynasty league that took Rice one pick in front of Chris Johnson.