Thoughts on QB early....

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Im not really arguing either way on this subject, it's just always been one that has intrigued me.

 

Admittedly I have never been someone to draft a QB early. I usually like to come out of the first 3 rounds with 2 RB's and 1 WR... sometimes even 3 RB's if the chips fall right. And each offseason, people preach waiting on QB's because there is value to be had in the later rounds (think Warner, Rodgers last year).

 

But each year, when I look back at my scoring system and take a look at the top players, QB's are usually tops. This past season for example, out of the top 10 fantasy point scorers, 6 were QB's. It's a PPR league with 4 point passing TD's and 1 pt per 20 yards passing. So not exactly great QB scoring it would seem. But still the best QB's seem to rule.

(Those 6 QB's in order: Brees, Rodgers, Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Manning)

 

I do have my opinions on this but I want to remain objective and hear some thoughts from the board members on taking a QB early or waiting until the middle rounds. Do you always wait? Will you reach for one of the more "sure thing" QB's? Does it really come down to ADP and BPA? etc etc......

[VaTerp 0]

Im a guy who has won leagues taking a QB in the first and being the last guy to draft one. This past year I targeted Brees in the 2nd but he went 2 picks before me. QBs then flew off the board in my league and I ending up waiting until the 9th round and getting Favre. I ended up trading for Peyton when my backup Kitna got hurt and I knew I couldnt rely on just Favre. But I was undefeated at that point with Favre and Kitna and led wire to wire, going 15-1 and winning the Super Bowl. The second best team in the league was the only guy who hadnt taken a QB when I took Favre. He took Bulger but ended up getting pretty good value in a guy named Kurt Warner a few rounds later.

 

Point being that I think you can win taking QBs early, late, or whenver. It really is about BPA and who you feel comfortable taking. Im generally an RB guy simply b/c you have to start more of them and will need much more of them over the course of a season. But if I dont feel comfortable taking the RBs that fall to me then I go ahead and grab a stud QB. And league scoring doesnt really matter that much since its all relative. Its more about the discrepancy within positions.

[KSB2424 3,082]

Im a guy who has won leagues taking a QB in the first and being the last guy to draft one. This past year I targeted Brees in the 2nd but he went 2 picks before me. QBs then flew off the board in my league and I ending up waiting until the 9th round and getting Favre. I ended up trading for Peyton when my backup Kitna got hurt and I knew I couldnt rely on just Favre. But I was undefeated at that point with Favre and Kitna and led wire to wire, going 15-1 and winning the Super Bowl. The second best team in the league was the only guy who hadnt taken a QB when I took Favre. He took Bulger but ended up getting pretty good value in a guy named Kurt Warner a few rounds later.

 

Point being that I think you can win taking QBs early, late, or whenver. It really is about BPA and who you feel comfortable taking. Im generally an RB guy simply b/c you have to start more of them and will need much more of them over the course of a season. But if I dont feel comfortable taking the RBs that fall to me then I go ahead and grab a stud QB. And league scoring doesnt really matter that much since its all relative. Its more about the discrepancy within positions.

Pretty much what I was gonna say. I don't go in the draft with a set plan of taking a QB early or late. I let my tiers do the talking. For instance this season if you have Brees/Mannning/Brady in your top tier and your top teir RB's are gone and your top tier WR's are gone and it is your pick then I take a QB. If I still have a RB left at the bottom of my first tier then I take him. Same thing on down the line through the draft. Eventually I get a QB in a higher teir than a WR/RB on my board. Sometimes I end up with a Drew Brees and sometimes I end up drafting Pennington. But either way I maximized the value of my picks as I personally had them ranked.

[Ray_T 588]

Pretty much what I was gonna say. I don't go in the draft with a set plan of taking a QB early or late. I let my tiers do the talking. For instance this season if you have Brees/Mannning/Brady in your top tier and your top teir RB's are gone and your top tier WR's are gone and it is your pick then I take a QB. If I still have a RB left at the bottom of my first tier then I take him. Same thing on down the line through the draft. Eventually I get a QB in a higher teir than a WR/RB on my board. Sometimes I end up with a Drew Brees and sometimes I end up drafting Pennington. But either way I maximized the value of my picks as I personally had them ranked.

 

He is right.

 

Ideally you want to be the guy who starts the Run on a position not the guy who ends a run.

 

If you draft #8 and the first 7 picks are all RB's you may want to look at a WR or a QB.

 

and if you have only 1 top tier WR left and 3 Top end QB's left and you're drafting late in the 4th round of a Serpentine Draft, take the WR every time because the odds that all 3 QB's will go prior to your next pick is slim.

 

I cant really give you a formula for how to do it. A lot of it is really common sense.

 

At RB there are usually 3 or 4 players who stand above the rest, and then there are usually about 7-10 RB's Who, for all intents & purposes are pretty much equal in terms of the fantasy points you expect to get from them.

 

So if it's your pick and you need to fill one roster spot at RB, and there are at least 7 or 8 good RB's on the board, and your next pick is 9 spots away, I'd take my chances that at least one or two people will take a QB or WR between now and your next pick and at least one other will pick a RB who is ranked lower on your list, so I'd take my QB or WR at this point and look at taking a RB in the next round.

 

sometimes simple math is all it takes to figure out whether to take a player or hold off.

[IAMWood 6]

What these guys said.

 

plus

 

Sure your top 6 scorers in your league were QBs. To be sure, I would bet maybe 1 was in the top 6 projected scorers before the season started. You can say that about any position but be wary. I wouldn't necessarily be scared to take a QB early. I don't see myself taking any in the first 2 rounds of a redraft, this year. If manning, brees, or brady were around in the 3rd, which they won't, yeah okay. Other than that I am waiting.

 

Back before internet I had to figure out the tier method on my own, everyone would draft QBs first because they scored the most. I dominated the year Emmitt Smith (took in 1st round) set the TD record and took Jerry Rice in the 2nd round, he had the 2nd most TDs that year. Can't remember who my QB was, but he didn't hurt me.

 

[Ray_T 588]

What these guys said.

 

plus

 

Sure your top 6 scorers in your league were QBs. To be sure, I would bet maybe 1 was in the top 6 projected scorers before the season started. You can say that about any position but be wary. I wouldn't necessarily be scared to take a QB early. I don't see myself taking any in the first 2 rounds of a redraft, this year. If manning, brees, or brady were around in the 3rd, which they won't, yeah okay. Other than that I am waiting.

 

Back before internet I had to figure out the tier method on my own, everyone would draft QBs first because they scored the most. I dominated the year Emmitt Smith (took in 1st round) set the TD record and took Jerry Rice in the 2nd round, he had the 2nd most TDs that year. Can't remember who my QB was, but he didn't hurt me.

 

 

sound stragegy given the state of things at the time because I dont think there were any truly dominant QB's at that time.

 

in general, I'd consider taking Manning or Brady in the 2nd round if they were still there just because they will put up substantially better numbers than the other top QB's All the rest I'd wait until round 4 or 5 as there really isnt a huge difference in fantasy points per game between the #3 Guy and the #10 guy. So unless you are in a league where you start 2 QB's there is no reason to grab a QB early.

 

for WR's, once again there are a couple that stand out above the rest who you may want to take in round 2 (or late in round 1 if you pick at the end of the round), but after that, a lot of them blend in together in terms of what they can do.

[LordOpie 0]

Take two QBs in the middle rounds, play match-ups, you're gold Johnny, Gold.

[Dr. Octopus 0]

But each year, when I look back at my scoring system and take a look at the top players, QB's are usually tops. This past season for example, out of the top 10 fantasy point scorers, 6 were QB's. It's a PPR league with 4 point passing TD's and 1 pt per 20 yards passing. So not exactly great QB scoring it would seem. But still the best QB's seem to rule.

(Those 6 QB's in order: Brees, Rodgers, Cutler, Rivers, Warner, Manning)

 

This helps make the point to waiting on a QB. The bolded QBs were likely not drafted very early in most leagues - in fact Warner wasn't even named the starter for Arizona until after a lot of drafts took place.

 

I've always waited, and I'm usually one of the last drafters to take a QB each season. Admittedly some times this backfires and I scramble all year to find a QB but many times you get a gem that produces as well as the guys taken in Rounds 3,4, and 5.

 

This year I see some nice later round QBs that can easily finish among the #5-#10 ranked QBs:

 

Carson Palmer, Matt Cassell, Matt Shaub and even Daunte Culpepper just to name a few. Obviously all have some risk or they wouldn't be dropping, but all have every bit the upside that Don McNabb, Jay Cutler, Ben Rotehlisberger and Tony Romo have.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

Good stuff guys. I also wait for a QB. Like I said I just got the thinking after seeing year after year of QB's making up alot of the top scoring players... That and I never seem to hit with the guys I target late.

 

a little more food for thought.

 

If the best QB's score the most points and the top tier is smaller but more efficient (last year counting Brady's injury it was probably a 50-66% success rate Brees Peyton Romo Brady?) would it not make sense to target a top tier QB? I don;t mean to reach but lets say you still have some top tier RB's and some top tier QB's?

 

Im just playing devils advocate because when push comes to shove I will often take a high 2nd tier RB over a QB because I have always felt that RB's are more important in that you usually start more of them and there are fewer solid ones to go around.

[nordwave 2]

I have always felt that RB's are more important in that you usually start more of them

 

That's my angle. In a typical league you start two RBs but only one QB.

Two solid RBs will make up for an "average" QB.

 

This year I'll be happy with someone from the "Matt" tier: Matt RyanCasselHasselSchaub.

[Ray_T 588]

That's my angle. In a typical league you start two RBs but only one QB.

Two solid RBs will make up for an "average" QB.

 

This year I'll be happy with someone from the "Matt" tier: Matt RyanCasselHasselSchaub.

 

This will vary from league to league.

 

some larger leagues with 12-16 teams will only start one RB, one QB and 2 WR, 1 TE and maybe 2 or 3 flex positions.

 

I'm in a 12 team league where you start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR and 1 TE, 1 Kicker and 1 Defense.

 

QB's go earlier there because there arent enough starting QB's for every team to have a good backup.

 

There are some PPR leagues that give the 1 point bonus per reception for RB/WR/TE but also give a point (or half a point) for each completion the QB makes.

 

some other leagues give a QB 6 points for every passing TD a QB makes as well(as compared to 4 points in most leagues). The end result of rules like this is that QB's will go earlier than they would in a normal draft.

 

either way, you can analyze all this stuff but the bottom line is this:

 

a Good top Tier RB will put up good numbers consistently every game almost without fail, and injuries to a QB or a WR wont affect their production substantially in most cases.

 

Most QB's will be affected if their top WR or their top RB get hurt so they are more risky (even if 6 of the top 10 fantasy point producers in your league are QB's)

 

ditto for WR's. ie. Moss's numbers dropped badly last year after Brady got hurt. all the Indy WR's numbers also dropped last year because Manning played while injured.

 

These are the most important reasons why RB's should typically go earlier in the draft than any other position.

[Gepetto 982]

I always wait on QB and end up with a top 5 QB every year. This year it's Schaub or Palmer late, and back them up with Garrard or Hasselbeck (unless you can land both Schaub and Palmer, then you're really set.

[cblue 0]

Never take a QB in the 1st or 2nd or 3rd

[Jaxie 0]

I have never taken a QB before the 5th round and I've been in the top 3 of my league every year but 1... I try to get my RB/WR positions locked up early because I have to start more of them (like the other posters said). If I can get 2 top tier RBs and a top WR by waiting on my QB, you better believe I'm going to. I got Rivers (6th rd.) and Warner (8th rd.) last year!

[49ers_suck 0]

obviously theres a million approaches to draft strategy

 

my approach last yr was to target Brees 2nd round on. if i didnt get him, i'd wait till mid rounds for QB. i got him in my big league and won the championship. not entirely due to Brees, but he was consistent. i like having a "stud" QB and will reach for one IF i feel like it will work out. Brees is FF gold, period. i think the main thing is getting a feel for the draft and being able to adjust your strategy as you go.

[VaTerp 0]

obviously theres a million approaches to draft strategy

 

my approach last yr was to target Brees 2nd round on. if i didnt get him, i'd wait till mid rounds for QB. i got him in my big league and won the championship. not entirely due to Brees, but he was consistent. i like having a "stud" QB and will reach for one IF i feel like it will work out. Brees is FF gold, period. i think the main thing is getting a feel for the draft and being able to adjust your strategy as you go.

 

I think thats the main point here. Those saying to NEVER draft a QB early are off the mark. There are times when it is absolutely a good move. I remember back in 06' I was drafting at the back of the 1st. All the RBs I wanted went just before me. My options at that point were taking guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, or Lamont Jordan. I didnt feel comfortable with taking any of those RBs so I grabbed Peyton and came back in the later rounds with guys like Gore and MBIII and won the league.

 

Its all about who you feel comfortable with. In general I guess I would say Im a RB guy in the early rounds just like most people would say. But I ABSOLUTELY will not just draft a RB I dont really like just b/c Im dead set on taking a RB in the 1st, 2nd, or whatever. Id rather take a stud QB knowing Im likely gonna get solid production out of that position all year, and roll the dice with a few of the RBs that can be had later on.

 

I feel that too many people simply refuse to even consider drafting QBs early which is ridiculously to me when its a proven fact that 40 to 50 % of the top Rbs chosen will underperform anyway.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

I think thats the main point here. Those saying to NEVER draft a QB early are off the mark. There are times when it is absolutely a good move. I remember back in 06' I was drafting at the back of the 1st. All the RBs I wanted went just before me. My options at that point were taking guys like Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, or Lamont Jordan. I didnt feel comfortable with taking any of those RBs so I grabbed Peyton and came back in the later rounds with guys like Gore and MBIII and won the league.

 

Its all about who you feel comfortable with. In general I guess I would say Im a RB guy in the early rounds just like most people would say. But I ABSOLUTELY will not just draft a RB I dont really like just b/c Im dead set on taking a RB in the 1st, 2nd, or whatever. Id rather take a stud QB knowing Im likely gonna get solid production out of that position all year, and roll the dice with a few of the RBs that can be had later on.

 

I feel that too many people simply refuse to even consider drafting QBs early which is ridiculously to me when its a proven fact that 40 to 50 % of the top Rbs chosen will underperform anyway.

 

yup. I simply wanted to start a thread about this to get some discussion on different strats. I feel more and more that personally I lean toward waiting on a QB but if ADP and BPA absolutely demands I take Brees or someone similar, I will.

 

I wasn't looking to be talked into or out of any mind set.

[Melissa Stark 1]

I'm in a league(PPR) were Qb's get 6pts and 1pt every 25 passing

 

I have tried getting a Qb in 2nd rnd, didn't work out, since 89' I have only seen 1 leaguue member come close.

He drafted the best Qb and used the run and shoot(we allow, combo of 1 rb with 4 Wr's or 1 Te/ 3wr's)

 

Anymore, I'll stick with 2rb's and wr, maybe 3 rb's if BAP is a rb.

The 1 thing I will try and do though, is try and get 2 starting Qb's, I've found that more useful for trade bait and used my backup for

injuries. I prefer that than using most scrub backups.

 

Can it be done, I would assume so, say you had Manning or Brady when they went off, but I still think Rb is priority#1.

[jerryskids 5,188]

obviously theres a million approaches to draft strategy

 

my approach last yr was to target Brees 2nd round on. if i didnt get him, i'd wait till mid rounds for QB. i got him in my big league and won the championship. not entirely due to Brees, but he was consistent. i like having a "stud" QB and will reach for one IF i feel like it will work out. Brees is FF gold, period. i think the main thing is getting a feel for the draft and being able to adjust your strategy as you go.

And various scoring systems which impact the approach as well. This year is shaping up as you described for last year; I might grab Brees in an early round, but the other "top" QBs (Brady, Peyton, Romo, Warner) have too many question marks for me to grab unless they drop to an unpassable value pick. I'm inclined to wait and grab a Rivers, Rodgers, etc.