Gladiators 1,987 Posted June 27, 2009 This ended up being a much longer post than I anticipated, but the stats are pretty interesting. I stated earlier that I've drafted 85 in the past, and he seemed to always have a few huge weeks and a bunch of "turd" weeks. If you look at the game logs over the last 3 seasons, you can see the huge inconsistencies. I know you can make arguements about injuries to Palmer, but hey, that's something you're taking a risk on when you draft 85. In 2008, he had over 60 yards 1 time...Enough said. In 2007, he had some solid games, but he scored 3 td's in the first 2 weeks and then nothing until week 12. He was also held under 100 yards in 6 of those 8 games. He had a 103 yard and 3 td performance in week 12, but then failed to hit the 100 yard mark until week 17. He had 131 yards and 2 td's in week 17. In 2006, he had didn't break 100 yards until week 10 and had only 2 touchdowns in those first 8 games. Then he exploded in weeks 10 and 11 for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. After these two huge weeks, he failed to score in any of the remaining 6 games and topped 100 yards in only 2 of those games. The other point I'd like to make is he is not contributing much, if anything, to your team in the playoffs. In 2008 he played weeks 13-15 and didn't top 80 yards and had 0 tds. In 2007 his highest output in weeks 13-16 was 86 yards and he had 0 tds in that span. He had 2 tds and 131 yards in week 17, but none of my leagues play in week 17. In 2006 he had one 100 yard performance between weeks 13 and 16 and posted 0 tds. Weeks 15 and 16 he failed to put up over 40 yards. While 85 might end up posting a solid number for total fantasy points, he's not going to be consistent. If you draft a solid WR1, yeah, take a chance on 85 to put up a few monster weeks that pull out wins for you in those weeks. 2008 game logs rec yds tds 1 -- 22 -- 0 4 -- 37 -- 0 3 -- 29 -- 0 3 -- 28 -- 1 3 -- 43 -- 0 5 -- 57 -- 0 8 -- 52 -- 1 5 -- 44-- 0 5 -- 37 -- 2 Bye -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 -- 34 -- 0 -- -- -- 4 -- 45 -- 0 5 -- 79 -- 0 3 -- 33 -- 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- 2007 game logs rec yds tds 5 -- 95 -- 1 11 209 -- 2 9 138 -- 0 3 -- 53 -- 0 Bye -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8 -- 83 -- 0 3 102 -- 0 5 -- 51 -- 0 3 -- 48 -- 0 4 -- 73 -- 0 8 -- 86 -- 0 12 103 -- 3 6 -- 86 -- 0 2 -- 60 -- 0 6 -- 78 -- 0 4 -- 44-- 0 4 -- 131 -- 2 2006 game logs rec yds td's 5 -- 48 -- 0 6 -- 78 -- 1 1 -- 11 -- 0 6 -- 64 -- 0 Bye -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 6 -- 99 -- 0 6 -- 73-- 0 6 -- 78 -- 1 4 -- 31 -- 0 11 260 -- 2 6 190 -- 3 7 123 -- 0 8 -- 91 -- 0 5 101 -- 0 3 -- 37 -- 0 3 -- 32 -- 0 4 -- 53 -- 0 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_risen_demon 0 Posted June 27, 2009 There was a similar thread about Turner and his presumed inconsistency. I argued then (as I will here) that you cannot make a claim that player X is inconsistent unless you juxtapose his stats with the stats of comparable player Y and show that X is less consistent than Y. I ran the numbers on Turner and a few other top backs and decided he wasn't significantly less consistent than they were. I'll leave it to someone else to do the heavy lifting here. On a side note, I never really bought into the idea that a given player was more or less likely to perform in weeks 14 and 15 (relative to their usual production) because they had failed to do so in the past. Unless someone can make an argument about why their stats were lower then and why that trend is likely to continue, I'm inclined to chalk it up to random fluctuations and the luck of the weeks 14-15 schedule. I wouldn't let it affect my expectations of future performance absent other evidence. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gladiators 1,987 Posted June 27, 2009 There was a similar thread about Turner and his presumed inconsistency. I argued then (as I will here) that you cannot make a claim that player X is inconsistent unless you juxtapose his stats with the stats of comparable player Y and show that X is less consistent than Y. I ran the numbers on Turner and a few other top backs and decided he wasn't significantly less consistent than they were. I'll leave it to someone else to do the heavy lifting here. On a side note, I never really bought into the idea that a given player was more or less likely to perform in weeks 14 and 15 (relative to their usual production) because they had failed to do so in the past. Unless someone can make an argument about why their stats were lower then and why that trend is likely to continue, I'm inclined to chalk it up to random fluctuations and the luck of the weeks 14-15 schedule. I wouldn't let it affect my expectations of future performance absent other evidence. I agree for the most part, but I do think he's relatively inconsistent. I thought I'd post some information I found interesting. The thing for me is that I generally don't play matchups when it comes to my stud players....I start my studs. If you consider 85 to be a stud based on the fact he's historically been at or near the top 10 each year for WR's, you might be inclined to start him every week. But, if you get sick of him not performing for 4 weeks in a row and sit him, you might miss out on his 1 or 2 explosive games each year. I'm not sure how to insert links so you can click them and go directly to the site, but if you copy and paste the following into a new browser you can see TJ's numbers for 2006 - 2008. 2008 was not a good year (it was similar to 85's), but 2007 and 2006 were relatively consistent. In 2006 he scored in 8 of 13 games played during the normal FF schedule (including playoffs). He also had 90 yards or better in 7 of the 13 games. Not great, but the td's are much more spread out than 85's. In 2007, he scored in 10 of the 15 fantasy football weeks (so not including the bye week or week 17). He only topped 100 yards 3 times in those 15 games, which is not good, but the total scoring on a weekly basis is much more consistent. http://www.nfl.com/players/t.j.houshmandza...amp;season=2006 http://www.nfl.com/players/t.j.houshmandza...amp;season=2007 http://www.nfl.com/players/t.j.houshmandza...amp;season=2008 I am not saying I wouldn't take 85. If I have a team with a strong RB core and a solid QB, 85 is a great guy to have in the mix. Especially if you can get him in the 5th round. He might put you over the hump, or nearly single handedly win a few weeks for you when he explodes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeaLerZ 0 Posted June 29, 2009 How so? 2004 TJ- 73 rec/ 978 yds/ 4 TD/ 31 FF WR rank 85- 95 rec/ 1274 yds/ 9 TD/ 9 FF WR rank 2005 TJ- 78 rec/ 956 yds/ 7 TD/ 14 FF WR ran 85- 97 rec/ 1432 yds/ 9 TD/ 4 FF WR ran 2006 TJ- 90 rec/ 1081 yds/ 9 TD/ 11 FF WR rank 85- 87 rec/ 1369 yds/ 7 TD/ 4 FF WR rank 2007 TJ- 112 rec/ 1143 yds/ 12 TD/ 7 FF WR rank 85- 93 rec/ 1440 yds/ 8 TD/ 6 FF WR rank 2008 TJ- 92 rec/ 904 yds/ 4 TD/ 31 FF WR rank 85- 53 rec/ 540 yds/ 4 TD/ 50 FF WR rank From 2004-2007, TJ was BEHIND 85 in fantasy points and receiving yards. From 2004-2006, TJ was BEHIND 85 in yardage, and from 2004-2005, TJ was BEHIND 85 in TDs. The only year you could make the claim that TJ passed 85 was 2007, and even then TJ finished behind 85 in fantasy rankings (non-PPR). The bottom line is that the Cincy offense sucked last year. It started with Palmer's injury, but they also had a BAD O-line. As a result, Cincy had to rely on dink and dunk passes. These are the routes that TJ runs, not 85. Therefore, TJ's production suffered less. Couple that with the fact that 85 is a prima donna type WR and he pouted when he realized the team wasn't going to win and he wasn't getting the opportunity to put up #s. Do you realize that Cincy was dead last in YPA last year (actually tied with Cleveland at 5.2 YPA)? They were 10th in 2007, 5th in 2006, & 7th in 2005. It wasn't just 85 who had a bad year last year, it was the entire offense. Now, look at these factors: 1-85 is not hurt (yet) as he was going into the season last year 2-Palmer is back, is reportedly healthy 3-TJ is gone, but Coles is a more than adequate replacement to keep teams from just focusing on 85 4-The O-line should be improved 5-The schedule-it's not easy: games against Baltimore (2x), Steelers (2x), Vikings, Chargers, Packers, Texans, and maybe the Jets figure to be games the Bengals will be/get behind and have to throw more Based on the fact that 85's bad year wasn't his alone, but a wasted year for the whole team, I'm reluctant to say he's done. 83 catches (a low projection-before last year, he hasn't had less than 87 catches since his second year) 1200 yards (again a low projection-this averages out to 14.4 YPC; his career average is 14.6 YPC, and that includes his rookie year and last year which were well below his other year's averages) 6 TDs (also a low projection-he's averaged 6.7 TDs/year, and that is including his 1 TD rookie year, and his 4 TD year last year) That would have made him the 12 ranked WR in 2008 (non-PPR), and makes him my 13th rank WR for 2009 projections. I consider those to be his floor projections (barring injury), with the potential for another 100-200 yards and 2-3 TDs, which would make his ceiling projections around 1400 yards, 9 TDs. Those numbers put him in my top 5 WR projections. So for me, I see a good WR2 as his floor, and a good WR1 as his ceiling. Right now his ADP is an early to mid 5th round pick. Getting a (possibly) top 5 WR there is good value. I completely agree with this, as well as the posts about his inconsistency... so to SUM it all up he is a Great #2 WR to have on your roster, and has great VALUE if you can get him in rounds 5-6 because he isn't the most consistent guy by any means, but he can have Explosive games that are sometimes the best fantasy outings for a WR of the year, and you don't want to miss out on those 30-40pt weeks.... so Chad's VALUE is at its peak when you don't rely on him for consistent points, but for occasional weeks where he alone wins the game for you, which means if you could somehow land him as your number 3 WR you would have an elite WR line up... and by years end he ends up somewhere around the top 10 in WR's because of the 2-3 filthy weeks of the season... 10 team RE-DRAFT... check this out... WHAT A JOKE even for a 10 team league... but the point is if you had Chad in this situation i'd say your doing pretty good QB Phillip Rivers RB Ladainian Tomlinson RB Kevin Smith WR Randy Moss WR Anquan Boldin WR Chad Ochocinco TE Jeremy Shockey K None Currently DEF Washington Back-ups RB Ryan Grant RB Joseph Addai RB Darren Spoles WR Donald Driver WR Derrick Mason QB David Garrard DEF Arizona Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
