QB Sleeper of the Year: Kyle Orton

[DankNuggs 305]

No! I want talk about complexity, and multi-factorial analysis. T-functions....you know, like some hardcore mathematic calculations interspersed with football talk....accented with condescension.

 

And is someone in here drawing comparison between Carson Palmer, Tom Brady and Kyle Freaking Orton?

 

To your first point... its pretty much VBD analysis and relative positional strength... if you accept the fact that people are idiots if they draft a kicker before the last round, that theory extrapolated covers all relative positional strength...

 

To your second point, Matt Cassell proved himself a worthy FF contributor last year and got himself $28mm in guaranteed money by playing in the patriots system... talent vs opportunity vs system can be argued all day long. Orton finds himself in a relatively similar situation. To dismiss it completely may be ignorant... i think thats the point of this thread.

 

 

[maxdog 0]

Orton elevated his game out of the trashheap where it existed entirely, except for five measly games last year. Beyond 30 ards, he can't hit the broad side of a barn.

[The Hood 9]

New quarterback Kyle Orton, acquired from Chicago for Pro Bowl passer Jay Cutler in the biggest NFL trade of the offseason, was booed by the crowd of 13,402 at his unofficial debut at Invesco Field when he threw two interceptions and several bad passes during a structured scrimmage Thursday night.

 

Orton drew the fans' ire when he was picked off twice by cornerback Andre' Goodman, the second of which was returned for a long touchdown.

 

Orton also was jeered when he threw behind receiver Chad Jackson, again when he missed a wide-open Jabar Gaffney in the end zone and also when he floated a pass down the middle that Champ Bailey busted up.

[FeelingMN 273]

Orton drew the fans' ire when he was picked off twice by cornerback Andre' Goodman, the second of which was returned for a long touchdown.

 

Orton also was jeered when he threw behind receiver Chad Jackson, again when he missed a wide-open Jabar Gaffney in the end zone and also when he floated a pass down the middle that Champ Bailey busted up.

 

Orton threw interceptions in his first three series during a disastrous Denver debut

 

Top 10 my ass.

[joefry 0]

I hate to pile on but wtf are people thinking projecting this dude as a top 10 qb? He has always been held in low regard by Chi town brass, only getting opportunities because Grossman was so bad. Even at that, he was a pedistrian qb...I don't buy the weapons argumant either...qbs are the straw that stirs the drink. We have all seen many situations where the qb goes down, and all skill players follow suit. Conversely a good qb should make ordinary players into stars.

 

Avoid Orton, if you havn't already blown your draft.

 

Avoid all other Denver skill players, unless you are getting them on the cheap...meaning <4th round for Marshall, <8th round for Royal, <11th for evryone else, I guess Moreno might be worth taking in the 6th if you are in a keeper though.

 

I have to say though...reading through this thread, a lot of energy has been spent pimping this choad, its gotta make you laugh. At this early point, Orton probably has lost his starting job to Simms. Maybe we should start a Simms thread?

[b.j. booker 0]

Time to get an alias, KarmaRooster

[DamageIncVacc 6]

I agree , Orton isnt a starting QB talent in the NFL. I cant even say hes a good backup. Would not be suprised to see Simms beat him out.

[winner23 0]

Wow, is thread ever going to come back and bite someone in the butt. Orton shouldn't be the starter, much less a sleeper.

[RLLD 3,455]

Denver is going to be a mess this year, one can only hope that given some time this collection of misfits is able to string together some decent scoring (FF-wise) over the waning games of the season.

 

A new coach, who frankly is pretty much a moron IMHO, brings in a new system and new QB to learn that system, and the QB he brings in needs time in a system to be effective.

 

This hurts the value of everything on that team. The defense isn't going to have much of a season to speak of, and offense is going to 3-and-out so often that they are going to get rolled in the second half, forcing them to become a one-dimensional passing-based team....

 

The problem being that with a new coach and new offensive scheme, and with the substandard QB of Orton the other quality members of the team (FF-wise) are going to be worthless.

 

The best thing going for this team at this time is that OL, and f Moreno can stay healthy he and the TE are going to be the only Broncos worth having at all...

 

Its really a damb shame....

[karmarooster 0]

To come up with some projections for Orton, i think you have to consider Denver, Chicago, and New England. There's alot of variables here so it's certainly guesswork. In NE, McDaniels had a run/pass ratio of 49/51 last year... Denver's defense will prevent him from maintaining that. I'll adjust that to 45/55. We can just use an even 1000 offensive plays as a baseline, so that gives 550 pass attempts. Orton should be able to match Cassel's 7.1 yards/att but maybe not Cutler's 7.3 yards/att.

 

550 x 7.25 = 3,987 yards passing. 550/23 = 23.9 TDs. For INTs, we can take the average from NE(11), Denver(18), and Orton's pro-rated season(9) = 12.6 INTs. Orton also rushed for 49 yards, but pro-rate his first 7 games and you get 85 yards... also had 3 rushing TDs. I'll give him just 1 rushing TD. Orton had 5 fumbles, Cassel had 4. Subtract 8 points...

 

3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS, 85 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 fumbles ===> 288.8 points. In 2008, that would've been #8 QB, after McNabb (290.7) and ahead of Cassel (288.6). Denver's defense will be atrocious once again, but that's a recipe for big points from QB, WRs, and a pass-catching RB. Orton's passing yardage could exceed 4,000, and his total points could push 300 putting him near Manning (302.6) and #6 QB last year.

I have to admit, even I am surprised after that terrible pre-season. Unfortunately, I only grabbed Orton in one league, choosing Edwards and Shaun Hill in a few leagues as my QB2s and late QBBCs. I settled on Schaub and Rodgers as my main guys in 4 or 5 leagues.

 

Through 5 games, having played the Bengals, Browns, Raiders, Cowboys, and Patriots, Orton has the following stats:

104 completions on 165 attempts (63%, 7.5 yards per attempt), 1236 yards, 7 TDs and 1 INT. 88.2 points.

 

Projected for 16 games:

333 completions on 528 attempts, 3955 yards, 22 TDs, and 1 INT. 282 points.

 

My July prediction:

3,987 yards, 24 TDs, 12 INTs. 288.8 points.

 

His numbers are so far dead on what I said, but he's a bit lower on the QB list (15th in PPG), esp. considering he hasn't had the bye week yet, because of some great QB performances (Manning, Schaub, Rodgers).

 

I expected Orton to have a lot of garbage time production on account of a weak defense. The fact that:

1) the Broncos are winning and

2) their defense is leading the league in points allowed

 

...and Orton STILL has this kind of production is really surprising. In fact, the most likely reason Orton won't be a top 10 QB at the end of the season is because of Nolan's defense, and not Orton's (perceived) lack of skill or McDaniels' (perceived) incompetency.

 

From MMQB:

As impressed as I am with Josh McDaniels in the wake of his 20-17 overtime victory over his mentor, Bill Belichick (I detailed much of that in last week's column), I'm just as impressed with Orton. Will it last? I don't know. Will the bubble burst? I don't know. But right now, he's every bit the surprising find to McDaniels' Denver team as Tom Brady was to the Patriots in 2001.

 

Underline this and put it in your mental bold print: I'm not saying Orton is as good as Brady or ever will be; what I am saying is that he's doing for the Broncos in 2009 what Brady did when Drew Bledsoe went down with an injury in 2001. Brady led the Patriots to a Super Bowl win no one saw coming. Can you sit there right now and say Orton might not do the same thing?

 

Exhibit A: Sunday at Invesco Field at Mile High (what a silly stadium moniker), Orton led the Broncos on scoring drives of 90, 66, 98 and 58 yards. With 10 minutes left in the game, New England led 17-10, and Denver was starting at its own 2. The Broncos weren't going to have many more chances -- two, maybe -- and Orton knew the significance when he went out to the huddle.

 

"We'd had a 95-yard drive earlier,'' Orton told me last night. (Actually, it was 90.) "And after we scored on that drive, I never had so much confidence in us as an offense before. It was a big game and we made a big drive. So here we were at the 2, and I got in the huddle and said, 'We did it once for 95 yards. What's three yards more?' '' And that was it for the inspiration.

 

The Patriots D looked gassed, even though it had been on the field for a reasonable 46 snaps to that point. But Orton only needed one third-down conversion and four and a half minutes to buzz down the field. He got 27 yards on a smart screen to Knowshon Moreno to put Denver into New England territory. On first down from the Pats' 11, New England thought Brandon Marshall would run a fade in the end zone. Instead, McDaniels called for a fade/stop, with Marshall selling the fade and stopping short. Orton threw it to him near the goal line, and Marshall used his leverage to pry away from a defender and score.

 

"It was a big win,'' Orton said, "but what I liked was we prepared like we'd prepare for any game, like it was any other week. Josh does a good job of that. They create a lot of problems for an offense, and we spent the whole week on that, not on any of the stuff surrounding the game. We put a plan together this week to try to beat New England, which is different from the other game plans we've had, and I'm sure this coming week will be different. That's the way we play, the way we prepare.''

 

I reminded Orton of his first game with Denver, when the city was apoplectic after he threw three first-half interceptions in a Broncos' preseason game at San Francisco. Joe Bronco was petrified that they'd gotten shafted in the trade with Chicago, and the franchise would never recover from losing Jay Cutler. Well, here we are five weeks into the season. Cutler's a 64-percent passer, averaging 225 yards a game, with a plus-three TD-to-interception differential and passer rating of 89.3. Orton: 63 percent, 247 yards a game, plus-six, 97.4 rating.

 

"I just thought about that this week,'' Orton said. "And I actually took that as a positive. I'm serious. There was a lot of doubt about me locally, but not from the coach. It was great to have a game like that and have the coach back me the way he did, with no reservations. That's the first time in my career that ever happened to me. I know my game. I'm not a turnover guy. Now I had a coach who knew I wasn't either.''

 

As long as he's not a turnover guy -- Orton's first pick of the year came on a Hail Mary throw at the end of the first half Sunday -- the Broncos will be a contending offense.

[karmarooster 0]

Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

[jgcrawfish 232]

you know, I saw this thread posted yesterday while I was on briefly and it's been a burr in my saddle ever since. I posted in another thread that I believe that Orton will easily be 8-10 in the QB rankings when the year ends provided that Denver finds a way to hang on to Marshall. Marshall/Royal/Stokely/Moreno is a hell of a set of weapons and with a ball-control/pass-whacky McDaniels at the helm, I think Orton represents a GREAT value pick as a #2 QB who will easily produce like a #1. For all the abuse he takes over his neckbeard, the dude put up decent #'s in limited action last year and was important enough to be included in this deal. The issue, as pointed out, is that Jay Cutler couldn't QB this team to the playoffs last year with the same weapons and same defense, so it's a fairly safe assumption that Orton won't as well...and if the team faulters, a QB change could be in offing. That being said, this guy is one of the three guys I am targeting as good value at QB along with Schaub and Matt Ryan, or Aaron Rodgers if he falls. Last year I picked Cutler in the 7th and Rivers in the 11th of my main 10 teamer using the same logic and ended up with the 2nd and 3rd FF passers in that league. I don't believe in spending an early pick on a QB.

 

 

Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?

 

rooster, i was with ya my man...you were right.

[karmarooster 0]

Orton 2009 stats: 3802 yards, 62% comp, 21 TDs, 12 INT.

 

 

Interesting to look back....

 

I cannot believe he is even in the top 16 making him a starter in any league by week starter at best.

In fact, he finished with 262 points which was only QB16 in my league. However that would have made him QB9 in 2008

 

I can't relate to Kyle-O-Mania at all. The Bears, who know him best, were eager to give Denver two first-rounders and throw in Orton. If the Bears think Cutler is two firsts better than Orton, the odds are low that Kyle will light it up at Mile High.

How do you feel about the Bears ability to evaluate QBs now?

 

Yes, because God knows Orton hasn't been a back up for the majority of his focking career.

Yep, this guy is the real deal all right.

Classy.

 

untintelligent people presume last year = this year...

typical fool.....

Classy.

 

So, here's my projection: He will continue to be Kyle Orton. He's never completed 60% of his passes or thrown for 3000 yards, or for 20Td's. He's simply not that good. He's not gonna go to Denver and magically learn to throw a deep ball or read a defense. This isn't Drew Brees coming out of San Diego here. No, this is Kyle freaking Orton we're talking about. I'll pass.

He had never completed 60% of passes or thrown for 3000 yards. Odd how that changed, isn't it?

 

useful.

 

I hate to pile on but wtf are people thinking projecting this dude as a top 10 qb?

Avoid Orton, if you havn't already blown your draft.

I have to say though...reading through this thread, a lot of energy has been spent pimping this choad, its gotta make you laugh. At this early point, Orton probably has lost his starting job to Simms. Maybe we should start a Simms thread?

Well, you were right, he wasn't top 10.

 

Time to get an alias, KarmaRooster

Nah, time to get a new board.

 

I agree , Orton isnt a starting QB talent in the NFL. I cant even say hes a good backup. Would not be suprised to see Simms beat him out.

Simms for the season: 5/17, 23 yards, and an INT.

 

Wow, is thread ever going to come back and bite someone in the butt. Orton shouldn't be the starter, much less a sleeper.

Note that this was said before the regular season began.

[karmarooster 0]

Who says pro-rated stats aren't useful?

 

I'm developing a major bromance for Kyle Orton this year in Denver with McDaniels.

Let's take a look at Orton's stats last year for Chicago before he sprained his ankle in week 8 vs. Detroit.

• 7 games played
  
• 1669 yards
  
• 10 TDs
  
• 4 INTs
  
• 62.2% completions
  

Prorated to 16 games, that's 3814 yards, 22.8 TDs, and 9.1 INTs.

Actual stats: 3802, 21 and 12. I'd say that's pretty damn close.

 

But please, delete the above quote from your topic and mind. No one cares what someone prorated stats would be. If you got injured, you got injured. Its the worst argument anyone can use in a player's favor.

Despite the Andre Johnson example I pointed out, you still refused to believe it could be useful.

 

yes i know every player can get injured, but to dismiss his injury entirely and not look at what he did when healthy is to ignore some evidence. look at Andre Johnson two years ago... 9 games played, 60 receptions for 851 yards. Prorated to 16 games, that's 106 receptions for 1512 yards.... his stats when healthy in 2009 were 115 receptions for 1575 yards. How can pro-rated stats not be useful?

 

 

Always love the "prorating" part. Man, we usually have to wait a while for that around here.

 

"Seneca Wallace had 11 TD's and 1,500 yards in only EIGHT games!! Dude, if you project that out, he's DEFINITELY a top TEN QB this year!!"

The only way Orton's going to make "Sleeper of the year" is if he develops Narcolepsy.

 

Thank you sir, may I have another?

 

 

I don't know about the pro-rating of stats.... there are several QBs near or below his ADP whom I like better for those upside/backup purposes (Hasselback, Edwards, and Garrard).

1 out of 3 isn't bad.

 

I think Orton makes for a very solid QB2, but it's a stretch to think he'll approach Rivers/Warner/Rodgers of 2008.

Truth. Actually the best thing said in the entire thread. I was over-ambitious, but my predictions were closer than most were willing to admit/accept.

 

3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS, 85 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 fumbles ===> 288.8 points.

Almost 200 yards too much. 3 too many TDs. and the Rushing TD. and about 16 points over. Margin of error works out to about 1 point per game.

 

I think this can be attributed almost exclusively to Mike Nolan's defense.

[enis_44 0]

Who says pro-rated stats aren't useful?

Actual stats: 3802, 21 and 12. I'd say that's pretty damn close.

Despite the Andre Johnson example I pointed out, you still refused to believe it could be useful.

Thank you sir, may I have another?

1 out of 3 isn't bad.

Truth. Actually the best thing said in the entire thread. I was over-ambitious, but my predictions were closer than most were willing to admit/accept.

Almost 200 yards too much. 3 too many TDs. and the Rushing TD. and about 16 points over. Margin of error works out to about 1 point per game.

 

I think this can be attributed almost exclusively to Mike Nolan's defense.

You are here bragging cause Orton went 3800 21 and 12?

That's not even fantasy start-able.

To be a sleeper, you have to actually be in fantasy lineups consistently.

Thus, every hater was correct.

 

Get a clue.

[OD99 0]

Oh come on - he was pretty much bang on about his prediction and Kyle Orton was a starter for a few teams I bet, at least for good match-up's and for teams that had injuries.

 

For a late pick and a player that most people didn't want to touch he was a very good, no great value. Whatever you want to define as a "sleeper" doesn't really matter for this thread.

 

Rooster put it out there, didn't attack people when he got tons of flak from 90% of the posters and is actually not being a pr!ck about being right now either...

 

Well done Rooster.

[karmarooster 0]

You are here bragging cause Orton went 3800 21 and 12?

That's not even fantasy start-able.

To be a sleeper, you have to actually be in fantasy lineups consistently.

Thus, every hater was correct.

 

Get a clue.

Wait, I'm sorry, who was right and who was wrong?

 

 

Stats and projections:

Here you go:

 

Kyle Orton

2005 15g 51.6%comp 1869yards 9Td 13int

2006 0g

2007 3g 53.8%comp 478yards 3Td 2int

2008 15g 58.5%comp 2972yards 18Td 12int

 

So, here's my projection: He will continue to be Kyle Orton. He's never completed 60% of his passes or thrown for 3000 yards, or for 20Td's. He's simply not that good. He's not gonna go to Denver and magically learn to throw a deep ball or read a defense. This isn't Drew Brees coming out of San Diego here. No, this is Kyle freaking Orton we're talking about. I'll pass.

Aside from the fact that you didn't actually post any projections.... you did fairly clearly state that he had no chance of doing 3 things that he, in fact, did. So did he or did he not complete more than 60 percent of his passes, throw for more than 3000 (4/5ths of the way to 4000 actually), and toss more than 20 TDs?

 

In fairness, Orton didn't turn out to be a starter... as in, not in the top 12 QBs. His stats were dead on, and he would've been QB9 in 2008. But those numbers were only good enough for QB16 in 2009. Why? I don't know. The QB10-QB16 guys are tightly bunched, separated by only 1.5 points per game.

 

I guess many QBs played the entire year because they stayed healthy and weren't pulled. Jason Campbell, David Garrard, McNabb, Romo, Big Ben, Favre, Schaub.... if memory serves me many of these guys missed time due to injury or had spells of being ineffective in 2008 but kept it together in 2009.

 

What I was looking for last summer was a QB who had the potential to be a Kurt Warner 2008... a very late draft pick with top 10 upside. The kind of pick that can make your season. In McDaniels system, Orton had serviceable, respectable, but not spectacular numbers. I attribute that to the defense. If the defense was as leaky as it was in 2008, he would've been playing catchup a lot more and that might've pushed him up to 4000 yard and given him a few more TDs.

 

In the end, he turned out not to be what I was looking for. He was a great value pick as a QB2 or a QB1 if you play in a larger league or took a QB very late.

 

QB Sleeper of the year? No, certainly not. It was Favre.

[We Tigers 71]

Interesting result! You hit very close on the stats, but he still only ended up finishing QB16. I think this shows that you were right in your assessment of his ability to perform pretty well in the Denver offense, but wrong in that it would make him a solid fantasy starter. Regardless of the statline, there were still 12 QBs who beat Orton's point total by at least 10%, which is not insignificant.

 

So: good player evaluation on Orton, but ultimately he still didn't really work out because of the surprising number of 4000-yard passers this year, plus the dozen guys who threw for 26 TDs or more. I guess that's a product of a fairly low ceiling, what with him being Kyle Orton and all. I think this kinda makes everyone right.

[karmarooster 0]

1 year too soon, apparently.

 

 

After 5 games, Orton is currently on pace for 5500 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs.

 

 

Obviously he won't maintain that pace, but 5000 yards isn't out of the question. He's going to blow up even my loftiest projections from July 2009: 3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS.

[PackYourNut 47]

1 year too soon, apparently.

 

 

After 5 games, Orton is currently on pace for 5500 yards, 26 TDs, and 10 INTs.

 

 

Obviously he won't maintain that pace, but 5000 yards isn't out of the question. He's going to blow up even my loftiest projections from July 2009: 3,987 yards passing, 23.9 TDs, 12.6 INTS.

 

 

More importantly who is your break out candidate for 2013?