Who are the best FF experts?

[Urlacher54 0]

Im getting ready for my 3rd year of FF drafting. And The first two years ive played both leagues ended with my league-mates and I saying to each other "who the @#$% woulda saw that coming?" I was told that these past two years have been more suprising than other years of FF and ill just have to take peoples word for it. But this year im considering not even looking at rankings, and just making educated guesses. I mean look at this.

 

My first year the consenus top 3 wr were:

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Chad johnson/ochocinco

3. Steve Smith

 

all of them were generally busts

 

My second year the consensus top 3 wr were:

 

1. Reggie wayne

2. T.O.

3. And i think maybe even steve smith again i cant remember or was it Braylon?

 

Busttown, USA. Although some wayne was decent, but he wasnt No. 1.

 

So for those of you guys who have been playing longer than i have, what FF experts do you feel are consistent, because predictions always seem incorrect and every year the top 10 rbs have like a 50% bust rate (i made that number up so dont flame me). Funston's big board changes like the wind, and looks totally different from the start to the end of the season, so im afraid to use it. Guys like TMR have fun to read articles, but every other one is about a bad call he made adn the hate mail he gets. Andy behrens is a great writer as well but he doesnt really make many predictions he just kind ofstates facts, which can be helpful. All these guys make valid points, but hardly anyone makes accurate predictons. So what website or expert do you guys feel really makes good predictions? Back up your arguement. Dont give me 100 guys saying FFTODAY!!! Who picks the best sleepers and busts and so on? Also what do you guys think of predictons doing more harm than good because they are seemingly so innaccurate?

[dksmith17380 0]

The best site no one has heard of.

 

http://www.fantasydc.com/

[Ray_T 753]

Im getting ready for my 3rd year of FF drafting. And The first two years ive played both leagues ended with my league-mates and I saying to each other "who the @#$% woulda saw that coming?" I was told that these past two years have been more suprising than other years of FF and ill just have to take peoples word for it. But this year im considering not even looking at rankings, and just making educated guesses. I mean look at this.

 

My first year the consenus top 3 wr were:

1. Marvin Harrison

2. Chad johnson/ochocinco

3. Steve Smith

 

all of them were generally busts

 

My second year the consensus top 3 wr were:

 

1. Reggie wayne

2. T.O.

3. And i think maybe even steve smith again i cant remember or was it Braylon?

 

Busttown, USA. Although some wayne was decent, but he wasnt No. 1.

 

So for those of you guys who have been playing longer than i have, what FF experts do you feel are consistent, because predictions always seem incorrect and every year the top 10 rbs have like a 50% bust rate (i made that number up so dont flame me). Funston's big board changes like the wind, and looks totally different from the start to the end of the season, so im afraid to use it. Guys like TMR have fun to read articles, but every other one is about a bad call he made adn the hate mail he gets. Andy behrens is a great writer as well but he doesnt really make many predictions he just kind ofstates facts, which can be helpful. All these guys make valid points, but hardly anyone makes accurate predictons. So what website or expert do you guys feel really makes good predictions? Back up your arguement. Dont give me 100 guys saying FFTODAY!!! Who picks the best sleepers and busts and so on? Also what do you guys think of predictons doing more harm than good because they are seemingly so innaccurate?

 

Valid points.

 

however, that is the reason I lean towards RB's and QB's more than WR's in drafts. There are more things that can affect the production of a WR.

 

The obvious downsides are typically injury to the player himself, or a change of coaching or a change of team (if it happens)

 

The less obvious things are:

 

1) if the Starting QB gets hurt or has a down year.

2) if the O-Line has a down year. (this will affect wideouts who run more deep patterns than it will slot receivers)

 

these seem to account for some of the poor performances noted above.

 

even the best expert cannot predict some of these things.

[KSB2424 3,148]

No website has a crystal ball, well maybe mrscloe.com might, but you get the picture. It is just speculaton and prediction based on past performance, opinion, and guesswork. The bottom line is that most of this stuff is luck. You can help negate some of that luck with knowing your scoring system, savvy trades, handcuffing, and good FA pickups. However at the end of the day if half your drafted team underachieves or gets hurt you're screwed.

 

It's like betting on ball games. Some prognosticators are better than others over time because they have seen trends before (experience), know gambling stratagies, and do their homework. However my grandma can go 5-0 any given night just as easy betting on ball games.

 

The bottom line is that this site is as good or better than any at predicting these things, but in the end you draft the best guys YOU think will succeed. Then just pray.

[~OMM~ 0]

Somebody did a review of about a dozen sites after the fact a few years ago. FFtoolbox had the best overall rankings that year, I think 2007. They also added a filter to enter your scoring system and it shoots out a custom list for your leagues scoring system. I don't use anybody elses list exclusively...I read a bunch of information and create my own. Although I will refer to some IDP lists for my 26 round 12 team keeper IDP league in the later rounds most likely.

[MTSkiBum 1,620]

Valid points.

 

however, that is the reason I lean towards RB's and QB's more than WR's in drafts. There are more things that can affect the production of a WR.

 

Actually a RB is less likely to repeat than a WR. There are 3 articles that were written either 2 or 3 years ago on this site that showed how likely different positions were to repeat in the top 10. Top 10 runningbacks had a 40% chance, top 10 WR's had a 50% chance, and top 10 QB's had a 60% chance.

 

The article is pretty easy to find digging through the archives.

[remote controller 143]

Somebody did a review of about a dozen sites after the fact a few years ago. FFtoolbox had the best overall rankings that year, I think 2007. They also added a filter to enter your scoring system and it shoots out a custom list for your leagues scoring system. I don't use anybody elses list exclusively...I read a bunch of information and create my own. Although I will refer to some IDP lists for my 26 round 12 team keeper IDP league in the later rounds most likely.

Lost all respect for th TOOLS last year with the putrid effort from they're IBL squad. The losers talked alot of smack then laid down when they got their a$$es beat the first third of the season. TRUE TOOLS!

[remote controller 143]

The best site no one has heard of.

 

http://www.fantasydc.com/

Must be Daniel Smith.

[KSB2424 3,148]

All I know is that this is the only website I look at, and I dominate every year. Speaking of which, anybody seen the soilist?

[enis_44 0]

Matt Waldman is the only actual person I've found who's opinions mean squat to me. Reason is he appears to actually watch tape and writes about actual football reasons for his predictions. None of this "Jerious Norwood will be more involved so bump down Turner" crap that others parrot.

 

Other than that, I form my own opinions. The board is fun, but mostly you just get "group think" after awhile and the same old opinions being propogated.

 

Search the web for actual training camp reviews and figure out for yourself who is worth taking a flier on.

[The Next Generation 10]

Matt Waldman is the only actual person I've found who's opinions mean squat to me. Reason is he appears to actually watch tape and writes about actual football reasons for his predictions. None of this "Jerious Norwood will be more involved so bump down Turner" crap that others parrot.

 

Other than that, I form my own opinions. The board is fun, but mostly you just get "group think" after awhile and the same old opinions being propogated.

 

Search the web for actual training camp reviews and figure out for yourself who is worth taking a flier on.

 

Doesn't that mean that his opinions actually don't mean anything to you? I think you mean to say, "Matt Waldman is the only person's opinions that actually mean anything to me. Everyone else's mean squat. " But whatever....I get you.

[BoltAddiction 0]

I think the problem with this thread is that there are a number of writers who go into lemming mode and follow the herd. There are also a number of guys who utilize sound independent thinking and analysis, but are still wrong as much as, if not more than, they are right. I agree with the others that I find Waldman's insight on running backs helpful because he actually watches these running backs before they ever hit the NFL as opposed to simple number crunching.

 

Personally, I try to take in as much information as possible from as many writers, but I don't rely on any one of them to give me the coveted golden nugget. Nothing is more rewarding than picking that sleeper that none of the writers even thought of and doing it on your own hard work. Philosophically speaking, and I know this is not answering your question, the busts are going to always occur - so drafting with depth at those positions that are more likely to bust will have you saying "I may not have seen that coming, but damn it I was prepared for it anyways."

[LOD01 198]

Obviously I am.

[Raider 84 29]

The Soilist without doubt!

[hosierjoe 3]

2 words DRAFT BUDDY!!!

 

Look at their projections read and read some more. Make some modifications, next thing you know you are going back to back.

[ed_jones 0]

Dude, I understand where you are coming from.When I first started I thought, grab a book and follow it.....WRONG. Now, going into my 16th year the best advice I can give you is to make your own projections.Take into account a players past numbers, injuryies, team and any trends that you see developing as well as your own opinion of that player and his team.You wont get every player right but nobody does. Eventually you will get to the point where you honestly know more than these so called "experts".

[Ras66not99 0]

No website has a crystal ball, well maybe mrscloe.com might, but you get the picture. It is just speculaton and prediction based on past performance, opinion, and guesswork. The bottom line is that most of this stuff is luck. You can help negate some of that luck with knowing your scoring system, savvy trades, handcuffing, and good FA pickups. However at the end of the day if half your drafted team underachieves or gets hurt you're screwed.

 

It's like betting on ball games. Some prognosticators are better than others over time because they have seen trends before (experience), know gambling stratagies, and do their homework. However my grandma can go 5-0 any given night just as easy betting on ball games.

 

The bottom line is that this site is as good or better than any at predicting these things, but in the end you draft the best guys YOU think will succeed. Then just pray.

gotta agree with this right here...

[Patriotsfatboy1 1,432]

I think that the "experts" here are good at giving you a combination of info that is up-to-date and mixed with perceptions from homers. Add in some projections and you have enough information to make your own decisions. If you really think that coming to a site like this or buying a book is going to bring you a championship, then you have no clue what you are doing anyway.

[Bert 1,128]

Speaking of which, anybody seen the soilist?

 

He is in Tyler trying to hook up with Recliner Pilot.

[Mike FF Today 723]

2 words DRAFT BUDDY!!!

 

Look at their projections read and read some more. Make some modifications, next thing you know you are going back to back.

 

Thanks for the plug hosierjoe!

 

This has always been an interesting topic to me and accountability is something we've made an effort to display over the years here at FF Today. I emphasize to wrtiers to go back and compare previous years results in their articles even if the outcome is not so flattering. It helps the learning process and shows just how difficult the prognostication business is.

 

 

No doubt, I've had my ups and downs over the years doing projections/rankings but I definitely feel the quality improves every year. FF Today did finish 5th overall last season in the FSTA Accuracy Analysis (run by the FF Librarian) for our projections/rankings which is something I'm very proud of. We'll take part again and see how we measure up in 2009.

 

FYI - We will also return the weekly series "Analyzing The Experts" this fall which will keep an eye not only FF Today's weekly projections but those of other notable prognosticators across the interweb.

[The Football Guru 222]

A few things to note when it comes to "experts":

 

1) suppose I told everyone prior to last season that DeAngelo Williams would finish as the top fantasy back. Not only would I have been mocked by the fantasy football world, very few people would remember that someone got it "right". It would take another year of getting it "right" before anyone believed I was on to something. After two years of getting it right, what would be the chances I would fall on my face in the third year? Pretty good.

 

2) regardless of what anyone says, injuries can make/break any fantasy owner's season. Injuries in football, more than any other fantasy sport, can determine fortune/failure. For example, Walter Jones goes down, which leads to Matt Hasselbeck getting hurt, which leads to a poor rushing attack because Seneca Wallace doesn't garner the same respect in the passing game that Hasselbeck does (plus no WR could play more than two games w/o getting hurt). On the other hand, everyone on Carolina's line stays healthy, Stewart is hobbled off and on all season long and the perfect storm of Williams taking his job seriously and everyone staying healthy happens. Another example of health: Miami had something like nine player-games missed at one point late in the season. For the most part, the teams that finish at the top each season are the healthiest.

 

3) along the same lines, fantasy owners typically aren't privy to the seriousness of a player's injury until after the season (i.e. LT, McFadden). For those of us who have no commitments on Sunday mornings, we have less than 90 minutes to react if our player is inactive. We have even less clue if the injury is to a Patriot.

 

4) there are so many different scoring systems out there. As a simple example, Wes Welker either was a rock-solid fantasy WR1 for you in PPR leagues last season or a disappointing WR2 in non-PPR leagues. Compare him to Bernard Berrian, who outscored him in most non-PPR leagues. However, in PPR leagues, Welker beat Berrian by 60 points or more. Similar things could be said about Santana Moss and Vincent Jackson. "Head west, young man" may be good advice for someone on the east coast, but not someone standing on a cliff. The point is that unless the "expert" is in the same situation as you are (or using the same scoring system in this case), it's hard for them to be of the most help.

 

5) just like in college, some players emerge in their first year, others in the second, still others in their third and fourth years. More than half of scholarship players have little to no impact on their college teams and the same thing could probably be said about drafted players. Fortunately, fantasy players have a few hard and fast rules to go by that can help us determine (to a degree) when a player may break out, but even those are hardly 100%.

 

 

I know the thread was meant more for season projection than week-to-week, but the point is that experts don't know who is going to go down the first week of the season any better than you do. Because football is the ultimate team game, a long-term injury to someone like Julius Peppers influences the offense, which will probably have to pass more since the defense will be weaker. Likewise, did the Colts' have the league's worst rushing game because all their RBs had bad years or because three of their linemen were gone for various parts of the season?

 

A good fantasy draft in my book is one in which you hit on about 70% of the players you draft; anybody that says they hit much higher on average than that is probably lying. Using that percentage, there is a good chance at least 30 of the players in anybody's top 100 will disappoint.

 

In my experience, fantasy titles go to the owners who outmanage the rest of the league in-season after setting themselves up well with a good draft and then, in the words of Ras66not99 "just pray."