You're Sitting At 12, And You Draft Pierre Thomas

[Kent 228]

Well, I agree. why take someone at 1.12 when there is a legitimate chance you can get him at 3.12.

 

but I guess this would be a 'know your league' issue.

 

if this guy has been in his league a number of years, he should be able to predict with some level of accuracy what kind of players his opponents will select.

 

Let's face it... there are guys in every league who will refuse to draft a rookie or an unproven player (as Pierre Thomas would be classified)

 

There are others who draft the same players from year to year.

 

so if you know your league reasonably well, and you think there is a good chance to get him in round 3, why wouldnt you go down that road?

 

to clarify (as I"m sure someone here will bring it up) I classify Pierre Thomas as unproven. the main reason is he has not played a full season as a starter.

 

it is one thing to come in as a replacement for a guy who was supposed to start when the opposing defense has game planned for someone else (in this case Bush). a player can even put up a few good games until teams learn how to shut you down. So until he has played a full 16 game grind (or close to it) and put up good numbers I will consider him to be unproven.

 

do I think he has the ability to be a starter? Yes.

will he be a starter? Maybe.

will he put up top 10 numbers as a starter? questionable.

 

as such, he should probably be considered around the third round. I know some people will take him in the second, some will get him in the fourth.... but the third round is where the guy has at least a decent chance of outperforming his draft position. (which is what you want)

 

You game plan to stop the Saints passing attack. Last time I checked, Brees went for 5,000 yards. That bodes well for the RBs in New Orleans. Its kind of why Pierre has such huge potential.

 

The teams game planning to shut down the Saints rushing attack are getting blown out of the stadium.

[Quickolas1 80]

While you wont win your pool with your first round pick, you can sure make it easy for yourself to lose if you miss on it.

 

disagree on both counts

have seen several people win leagues when missing on their #1 pick (an owner who took kevan barlow comes to mind)

 

two years ago an owner in one of my 12-team leagues took tom brady & randy moss at the 1.12/2.01 turn. i think the draft was 11 rb's in a row until that point. he was a pats fan. there was definitely laughter. that guy destroyed the whole league, i dont think it mattered who the rest of his lineup was each week (as long as he had players that could breathe om sundays).

[edjr 6,580]

in a 12 teamer, I drafted Dorsey Levens at 1.12 in 1997.

 

Most of the people in my league laughed. I knew Bennett was out for the year and Levens looked good when he got a chance to play and he was huge catching it out of the backfield (double points for RB catching a TD)

 

I drafted Eddie George at 2.1

 

I won the title that year.

[Ray_T 753]

disagree on both counts

have seen several people win leagues when missing on their #1 pick (an owner who took kevan barlow comes to mind)

 

two years ago an owner in one of my 12-team leagues took tom brady & randy moss at the 1.12/2.01 turn. i think the draft was 11 rb's in a row until that point. he was a pats fan. there was definitely laughter. that guy destroyed the whole league, i dont think it mattered who the rest of his lineup was each week (as long as he had players that could breathe om sundays).

 

I'm not saying it cannot be done. I did it once too. I picked Marshall Faulk in the first round of a keeper league the first year of my league(8 teamer). he was hurt more often than not and wasnt worth much to me.

 

but I grabbed a guy named McNabb in the 2nd round and Priest Holmes in the third round and a young kid named Tomlinson in round 5 and crushed everybody that year (I think I finished 14-2 or something stupid like that).

 

but what I am saying is I like your chances of winning a lot more if you can hit on that first pick than if you miss.

 

and I think we'd all be fools to deny that.

[Franknbeans 46]

I chose him as my RB #1 (2.3) in a PPR league over guys like Turner and D Williams :bag:

[ppierce 2]

The ADP and all that garbage is based on magazine rankings and internet site rankings. No major publication has the balls to actually use some forsight and rank guys like Thomas higher then stiffs like sjax and gore, who are always hurt. They always go off the previous years ending rankings. Which if anybody realized, never is the same 2 years in a row.

 

Use some logic. Do you want the starting and goaline running back on the best offense in the league? Duh, obviously. Don't give me that Reggie Bush garbage either. He's still banged up and is NOT an everydown back. T

[Ray_T 753]

I chose him as my RB #1 (2.3) in a PPR league over guys like Turner and D Williams :bag:

okay I gotta wonder what kinda league you are in when guys like Turner and D Williams are available in the 2nd round. 6 team league?

 

either way, Turner is a surefire top 5 RB and williams may well be the same if JStew remains on the sideline.

 

it is one issue to take Thomas when guys like this are gone, and you're looking at Ronnie Brown, but to take him when guys like this are still on the board? This would be the equivalent of taking him with a top 5 pick.

 

either way, we dont know your leagues rules. if the scoring is such that QB's are highly regarded, and if the league is PPR that may explain it.... but I still do not agree with the call you have made.

[Jarvis Basnight 119]

I chose him as my RB #1 (2.3) in a PPR league over guys like Turner and D Williams :bag:

 

Whoa. No thanks. You are seriously leaving your franknbeans flapping in the wind on that decision.

[Chuckml97 0]

The ADP and all that garbage is based on magazine rankings and internet site rankings. No major publication has the balls to actually use some forsight and rank guys like Thomas higher then stiffs like sjax and gore, who are always hurt. They always go off the previous years ending rankings. Which if anybody realized, never is the same 2 years in a row.

 

Use some logic. Do you want the starting and goaline running back on the best offense in the league? Duh, obviously. Don't give me that Reggie Bush garbage either. He's still banged up and is NOT an everydown back. T

 

What is ADP? Average draft Position, right? It is not a prediction of the future player performance. It is not the same as pre-season ranking. Please don't get confuse.

 

ADP is an average. It give some insight of when a player is getting drafted in average. I drafted Pierre Thomas, because of what you said, starting and goaline running back on the best offense. But I drafted him not in the first round, but in third. I drafted Chris Johnson in the 1 st round, and Calvin Johnson in the 2nd round.

 

I could have draft PT in the first, CJ in the second, then drafted Thomas Jones or some RB in the 3 rd. You get my point?

 

You can only get the best value of the draft by using ADP as one of the tool.

[Ray_T 753]

What is ADP? Average draft Position, right? It is not a prediction of the future player performance. It is not the same as pre-season ranking. Please don't get confuse.

 

ADP is an average. It give some insight of when a player is getting drafted in average. I drafted Pierre Thomas, because of what you said, starting and goaline running back on the best offense. But I drafted him not in the first round, but in third. I drafted Chris Johnson in the 1 st round, and Calvin Johnson in the 2nd round.

 

I could have draft PT in the first, CJ in the second, then drafted Thomas Jones or some RB in the 3 rd. You get my point?

 

You can only get the best value of the draft by using ADP as one of the tool.

I dont think anyone is arguing against selecting Thomas in the third.

 

we are saying he is not a first round pick.

[cubbie5150 0]

I see no problem taking Thomas at 1.12... I've got a 12 team redraft league draft (.5 PPR) this coming weekend, and I am hoping to be picking around the 10th spot. If so, I plan to go best WR in the 1st (if the 1st Rd goes as I expect) and Thomas w/ my 2nd Rd pick. Hell, depending on who is drafting after me in the first Rd regardless of where I pick other than 12th), it's highly likely Thomas won't be available by the time my 2nd Rd pick comes up. He is a very known commodity in this league, and all of the owners are located in the Midwest, so it's not a Saints homerism thing.

[Franknbeans 46]

okay I gotta wonder what kinda league you are in when guys like Turner and D Williams are available in the 2nd round. 6 team league?

 

either way, Turner is a surefire top 5 RB and williams may well be the same if JStew remains on the sideline.

 

it is one issue to take Thomas when guys like this are gone, and you're looking at Ronnie Brown, but to take him when guys like this are still on the board? This would be the equivalent of taking him with a top 5 pick.

 

either way, we dont know your leagues rules. if the scoring is such that QB's are highly regarded, and if the league is PPR that may explain it.... but I still do not agree with the call you have made.

 

Not many would but it is indeed a twelve team league. I swung for the fences because it's a best ball,PPR format and I really don't like Turner or DWill in that format. Maybe I'm whacked but we shall see... I followed Thomas up with Moreno and Lynch. Lots of questions heading into the season but that's what makes the world go round.

[Chuckml97 0]

I dont think anyone is arguing against selecting Thomas in the third.

 

we are saying he is not a first round pick.

 

What I am saying is, I like PT myself too. But I don't ignore the ADP. I don't reach for him in the first round.

[Ray_T 753]

I see no problem taking Thomas at 1.12... I've got a 12 team redraft league draft (.5 PPR) this coming weekend, and I am hoping to be picking around the 10th spot. If so, I plan to go best WR in the 1st (if the 1st Rd goes as I expect) and Thomas w/ my 2nd Rd pick. Hell, depending on who is drafting after me in the first Rd regardless of where I pick other than 12th), it's highly likely Thomas won't be available by the time my 2nd Rd pick comes up. He is a very known commodity in this league, and all of the owners are located in the Midwest, so it's not a Saints homerism thing.

I disagree. if the draft is serpentine, there is a decent chance Pierre thomas will be available.

 

I'd say anywhere between pick 18 and pick 28 is where I'd expect him to go. This is an upgrade from my initial estimate because it looks like Bush may still have issues with his knee. so to me, this means the mid to late second round is the ideal place to be targetting a player like this.

[rozniarek 0]

I got him in the 4th round after Turner,Westbrook, and Jennings.Didnt want to go RB 3 times in 4 rounds but couldnt pass him up especially with Westbrooks history.

[cubbie5150 0]

I disagree. if the draft is serpentine, there is a decent chance Pierre thomas will be available.

 

I'd say anywhere between pick 18 and pick 28 is where I'd expect him to go. This is an upgrade from my initial estimate because it looks like Bush may still have issues with his knee. so to me, this means the mid to late second round is the ideal place to be targetting a player like this.

 

In your league(s), perhaps he would fall that far (& yes, it is a serpentine draft). One key to drafting is knowing your fellow owners. This league has been together for 14 years now, and we've had very minimal owner turnover. We know each other's tendencies, and I can say for a fact, in this particular league, Thomas will not make it back to me in the 3rd Rd assuming I get the 10th overall pick (which is actually where I want to pick). Look, I'm not saying Thomas should be a lock for early 2nd Rd...I'm just saying I can understand if he is taken that early, and that I will take him that early ASSUMING the first Rd goes as expected--I'm not overlooking the possibility an owner or two will throw a curveball & draft against their tendencies.

[tackle_football 0]

Not trying to high jack but didn't want to start another PT thread. I am in a 10 team keeper league, keeping Roddy White, and I have the 10th pk.

 

Running backs I know 100% that will be gone (keepers and drafted players)

 

MJD, Peterson, Forte, Slaton, C Johnson, S. Jax, LT, Westbrook, Turner, D. Williams

 

Rbs I have a feeling may go....Gore, Jacobs

 

That leaves me Portis, Barber, Grant, PT, and maybe Jacobs or Gore.

 

 

Think PT is worth one of my 2 picks? Or do you think I should risk it and hope he falls to me in the 3rd?

[Ray_T 753]

In your league(s), perhaps he would fall that far (& yes, it is a serpentine draft). One key to drafting is knowing your fellow owners. This league has been together for 14 years now, and we've had very minimal owner turnover. We know each other's tendencies, and I can say for a fact, in this particular league, Thomas will not make it back to me in the 3rd Rd assuming I get the 10th overall pick (which is actually where I want to pick). Look, I'm not saying Thomas should be a lock for early 2nd Rd...I'm just saying I can understand if he is taken that early, and that I will take him that early ASSUMING the first Rd goes as expected--I'm not overlooking the possibility an owner or two will throw a curveball & draft against their tendencies.

well, then this is a know your league issue. In the average league, this is my estimate of where he should go. However each league is different and I cant speak to that unless I am in your league.

[Ray_T 753]

Not trying to high jack but didn't want to start another PT thread. I am in a 10 team keeper league, keeping Roddy White, and I have the 10th pk.

 

Running backs I know 100% that will be gone (keepers and drafted players)

 

MJD, Peterson, Forte, Slaton, C Johnson, S. Jax, LT, Westbrook, Turner, D. Williams

 

Rbs I have a feeling may go....Gore, Jacobs

 

That leaves me Portis, Barber, Grant, PT, and maybe Jacobs or Gore.

Think PT is worth one of my 2 picks? Or do you think I should risk it and hope he falls to me in the 3rd?

I dont know that I'd draft PT ahead of Gore or Portis. I'm not a big fan of Grant, but he's not sharing any carries, and that alone gives him some value that many on this list dont have. I do like Barber more than any of them, but he will share carries for sure, and does get hurt, so I dont know if I'd recommend him at this point (although hes not a horrible selection at this point in the draft)

 

you also havnt listed any QB's or WR's. is it that there are no good ones available or just that you have no desire to pick one at this point in the draft?