Deangelo Williams

[uwilose123 2]

Actually it was Tampa Bay that he torched for a metric @ssload of yards and 4 tds that week last year at home, on Sunday night if IRC.

 

That was week 14 my friend, 186 yards and 2 tds. The other two games were correct.

[TheBlade 3]

That was week 14 my friend, 186 yards and 2 tds. The other two games were correct.

 

You're right. My bad. It just seemed that bad that week as I was playing the guy that had DWill.

[The Football Guru 211]

Didn't he have 4 tds @GB in week 13 last year AND 4 tds @NYG in week 16 last year????

 

Read my post above...

 

"And before you say "look what he did vs. the Giants last year", look at how miserable the G-men's run defense was in December last season. New York is so deep now along its defensive front, I pity the teams that have to face it."

 

In short, the Giants sucked against the run the entire month of December (remember how poorly the entire team played after the Plax incident) - you can't tell me you expect a repeat with all the depth the G-men have up front now.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats....&LeagueID=1

 

GB was horrendous vs. the run last season.

[uwilose123 2]

Read my post above...

 

"And before you say "look what he did vs. the Giants last year", look at how miserable the G-men's run defense was in December last season. New York is so deep now along its defensive front, I pity the teams that have to face it."

 

In short, the Giants sucked against the run the entire month of December (remember how poorly the entire team played after the Plax incident) - you can't tell me you expect a repeat with all the depth the G-men have up front now.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/stats/fantasystats....&LeagueID=1

 

GB was horrendous vs. the run last season.

 

 

So was Detroit, Rams, blah blah blah. If you really want to try and paint a negative picture and downplay TWO 4 touchdown games...feel free. Pick somebody else then, I for one am not overanalyzing it. Its fantasy football, roll the dice with Steven Jackson or some other back you think will outperform, jus don't downplay two 4 td games b/c the defense was was bad a particular month...4 tds in a game is phenominal against anyone, anytime, anywhere!

[The Football Guru 211]

So was Detroit, Rams, blah blah blah. If you really want to try and paint a negative picture and downplay TWO 4 touchdown games...feel free. Pick somebody else then, I for one am not overanalyzing it. Its fantasy football, roll the dice with Steven Jackson or some other back you think will outperform, jus don't downplay two 4 td games b/c the defense was was bad a particular month...4 tds in a game is phenominal against anyone, anytime, anywhere!

 

You are right about that, 4 TD games are awesome, no doubt about it. But understand that GB and the December 2008 Giants defense aren't on the sked this year. Ignore whatever you want to ignore, but facts are facts, this from TJ Thomas' PSAs:

 

But before Williams' owners start sticking pins into their Stewart voodoo dolls (or vice versa), consider this for a second: through the Panthers' Week 9 bye last season, Williams had a modest five total TDs and two 100-yard games. Then, over the final eight games - five of which were against the worst eight rush defenses (Lions - worst, Raiders - 31st, Broncos - 27th, Packers - 26th, Falcons - 25th), he tripled both totals, capped off by a career-defining four-score outburst in Week 16 vs. the Giants.

 

Now you could argue that since each of those teams had to play CAR, that was one of the reasons why they were so poor against the run. But since four of the aformentioned teams surrendered 24 or more TDs to the RB position (Atlanta gave up 18), I don't think that is really the case.

 

Here's another thing I said earlier that apparently was overlooked:

 

"I own DeAngelo in my keeper league and I've liked him since I saw him play at Memphis, so I hope I'm wrong."

 

Do you know of many keeper league owners who willingly admit one of their guys may not meet expectations? I don't want him to do poorly, I just don't see how he is going to put up huge numbers sharing carries with Stewart (I'm not going to project Stewart to miss half the season) against a more difficult schedule. I'll be thrilled if he can give me 1450 total yards and 10 scores, which I think is pretty much his ceiling in 2009 barring a long-term injury to Stewart.

[Texansfan 0]

Answer me this then, for those of you that believe D-Will is a 1,500-yard, 12 TD fantasy RB.

 

How much of that production is going to come during the fantasy playoffs? Does it matter what he does during the fantasy regular season if all but one of his TDs come in the first 13 weeks? I'm all for having great end-of-the-year numbers, but is he going to go nuts vs. NE, MIN and NYG? If your answer is yes, then he is a top five RB, otherwise, he's only a fantasy RB that gets you to the playoffs and little more.

 

First of all, you have to make it to the playoffs to even worry about it. And secondly, it's very hard to predict what those defenses will look like 4 months from now. One key injury could change everything. And yeah, I think with the Panthers Oline and commitment to the run game, Williams will do fine even if those defenses are at full strenght.

[Reality 2,710]

Once again, it's like we can't believe our lying eyes. Give me the guy who has done it..

 

Nobody can predict what a defense is gonna look like 3 months from now. Minny will be tough of course, he torched NY last year, and why should anybody be scared of NE rush D?

 

I'm not saying D-Will is the #1 overall pick, but if you like the guy go with your gut and make the pick.

[Gladiators 1,904]

First of all, you have to make it to the playoffs to even worry about it. And secondly, it's very hard to predict what those defenses will look like 4 months from now. One key injury could change everything. And yeah, I think with the Panthers Oline and commitment to the run game, Williams will do fine even if those defenses are at full strenght.

 

This is the answer. As I've said before, after AP everyone has question marks or unknowns. If you're picking guys in the first 3 rounds based on the fantasy playoff schedule, you're expecting that you're going to make it to begin with which is probably not a safe assumption.

 

I'm a believer in starting your studs and D Will is as much a stud as any of the first round RB's. However, if you're really worried about the fantasy playoff schedule, make sure you grab a 3rd or 4th back that has a cupcake schedule during the fantasy playoffs. I also can't over-emphasize how important it is to grab great depth. If you make sure to have 4 RB's within the first 7 or 8 rounds with your RB3 and/or RB4 having big upside, you shouldn't have any issues anyway.

 

As the guy above said, we have no way of knowing what any of those defenses are going to look like in December. The chances of 1, 2, or 3 injuries occuring on a starting defense is relatively high. No defenses are 100% healthy by the end of the season.

[ROCKET 0]

Answer me this then, for those of you that believe D-Will is a 1,500-yard, 12 TD fantasy RB.

 

How much of that production is going to come during the fantasy playoffs? Does it matter what he does during the fantasy regular season if all but one of his TDs come in the first 13 weeks? I'm all for having great end-of-the-year numbers, but is he going to go nuts vs. NE, MIN and NYG? If your answer is yes, then he is a top five RB, otherwise, he's only a fantasy RB that gets you to the playoffs and little more.

 

 

It must be nice to have your playoff reservations already stamped in August. Some of us play in leagues with solid owners across the board where we are'nt guaranteed a playoff spot going in. Give me the rb who will get the most regular season points and I'll worry about playoffs if/when I'm in.

[hosierjoe 3]

It must be nice to have your playoff reservations already stamped in August. Some of us play in leagues with solid owners across the board where we are'nt guaranteed a playoff spot going in. Give me the rb who will get the most regular season points and I'll worry about playoffs if/when I'm in.

 

 

 

Like I have said I have the 4th pick this year. I am really thinking of picking him with my pick. My draft is next Saturday so I have some time but if it were today he would be my pick. I will worry about the playoffs if and when I make it.

[ed_jones 0]

First of all, you have to make it to the playoffs to even worry about it. And secondly, it's very hard to predict what those defenses will look like 4 months from now. One key injury could change everything. And yeah, I think with the Panthers Oline and commitment to the run game, Williams will do fine even if those defenses are at full strenght.

 

 

 

This is exactly what I tried to say earlier about Defenses, things change and thus Strength of Scheduling should not be the defining factor in drafting a guy, rather just a small "part" of making that decision. That reminds me, I better go and setup my reservations for the playoffs before they're all taken

[The Football Guru 211]

It must be nice to have your playoff reservations already stamped in August. Some of us play in leagues with solid owners across the board where we are'nt guaranteed a playoff spot going in. Give me the rb who will get the most regular season points and I'll worry about playoffs if/when I'm in.

 

It has nothing to do with "having my playoff reservations already stamped in August". I will be in three $250 entry-fee leagues and one $150 league. Those kind of leagues are not filled with simpletons. However, I do play to win the championship in each league, so I think it's kind of foolish to "worry about the playoffs if/when I'm in" because I - for one - expect to get in. Thus, I want to dominate once I'm there. If I have a RB that is going up against NE, MIN and NYG during that time, it's going to be hard for me to dominate. Call it conceited if you want, but I expect to win period.

 

"Give me the rb who will get the most regular season points" - Perhaps my most painful c'ship loss was in 2006 when I was in line for the $1600 championship prize. I had LT during his magical year and picked up Willie Parker in a trade in the middle of the season. Long story short, LT's long scoring streak came to an end vs. Seattle and FWP was shut down by the Ravens. (If I had played Ron Dayne vs. the Colts instead of FWP, I would have won easily.) So in a league where scoring 90 points was about average (and coming off about a six-week stretch of scoring well over 100 points/game, I lost in the title game 58-57. I was the league's highest scoring team by a large margin, but it didn't matter b/c I didn't play the matchup that week.

 

The point: It's great to have the best regular season team. It's even better to have the team that wins the money in December.

[Reality 2,710]

Anybody happen to catch D-Will's TD last night?

 

Some guys just have abilities that others dont have.

[Doozer 0]

It has nothing to do with "having my playoff reservations already stamped in August". I will be in three $250 entry-fee leagues and one $150 league. Those kind of leagues are not filled with simpletons. However, I do play to win the championship in each league, so I think it's kind of foolish to "worry about the playoffs if/when I'm in" because I - for one - expect to get in. Thus, I want to dominate once I'm there. If I have a RB that is going up against NE, MIN and NYG during that time, it's going to be hard for me to dominate. Call it conceited if you want, but I expect to win period.

 

"Give me the rb who will get the most regular season points" - Perhaps my most painful c'ship loss was in 2006 when I was in line for the $1600 championship prize. I had LT during his magical year and picked up Willie Parker in a trade in the middle of the season. Long story short, LT's long scoring streak came to an end vs. Seattle and FWP was shut down by the Ravens. (If I had played Ron Dayne vs. the Colts instead of FWP, I would have won easily.) So in a league where scoring 90 points was about average (and coming off about a six-week stretch of scoring well over 100 points/game, I lost in the title game 58-57. I was the league's highest scoring team by a large margin, but it didn't matter b/c I didn't play the matchup that week.

 

The point: It's great to have the best regular season team. It's even better to have the team that wins the money in December.

(Bold parts made me laugh.) Hilarity of this post aside...

 

<3 the cherry picked story that fits your argument... but could you have honestly have predicted that Ron Dayne would outscore LT/FWP? 10/10 times I'd pick FWP/LT over Ron Dayne regardless of the matchup.

 

For me, if a RB has a good playoff schedule its a slight tick up, a bad one a slight tick down, but not a dealbreaker by any means. What people have repeated in this thread again and again, that football guru fails to realize, is that judging week 14/15/16, or 15/16/17 running defenses in August is the equivalent of stabbing yourself in the eye with a needle... dumb and unnecessary. Not to mention the converse of his argument actually has more merit. Tough to use that fluff playoff SoS in August if you are unable to make the playoffs in the first place.

 

Thanks for adding the amount of money to your leagues... it adds a sense of realism, makes me really impressed, and adds nothing to your argument.

[nobody 2,037]

The thing that bothers me about Williams is that now everyone is calling him a beast and an animal, but last year everyone was taking Stewart in the 5th and Williams in the 9th. In fact I even read a thread last year talking about how Williams was good value and 80% of the responses were people saying Williams sucks and Stewart is the guy to get. All the sudden Williams became some beast after he couldn't separate himself from a guy that isn't even on a roster 2 years later. That just bugs the fock out of me.

[Doozer 0]

The thing that bothers me about Williams is that now everyone is calling him a beast and an animal, but last year everyone was taking Stewart in the 5th and Williams in the 9th. In fact I even read a thread last year talking about how Williams was good value last year and 80% of the response were people saying Williams sucks and Stewart is the guy to get. All the sudden Williams became some beast after he couldn't separate himself from a guy that isn't even on a roster 2 years later. That just bugs the fock out of me.

That's because a lot of value in FF is based on hype. John Fox also <3s his vets, Foster was more effective than Davis for quite some time before Foster got the starting gig, something similar happened with Williams... not to mention DeShaun Foster healthy and three years ago was no joke, he was a pretty good back.

[Franknbeans 46]

The thing that bothers me about Williams is that now everyone is calling him a beast and an animal, but last year everyone was taking Stewart in the 5th and Williams in the 9th. In fact I even read a thread last year talking about how Williams was good value and 80% of the responses were people saying Williams sucks and Stewart is the guy to get. All the sudden Williams became some beast after he couldn't separate himself from a guy that isn't even on a roster 2 years later. That just bugs the fock out of me.

It should

[mdm_1971 0]

The ude can run and when gets into the open he is hard to catch.....he hits the hole harder then a lot of backs.....I am glad I dont have to choose cause i get to keep him as my 4th rounder......I am planning on him being my # 1 and will be happy doing it

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

You are right about that, 4 TD games are awesome, no doubt about it. But understand that GB and the December 2008 Giants defense aren't on the sked this year. Ignore whatever you want to ignore, but facts are facts, this from TJ Thomas' PSAs:

 

But before Williams' owners start sticking pins into their Stewart voodoo dolls (or vice versa), consider this for a second: through the Panthers' Week 9 bye last season, Williams had a modest five total TDs and two 100-yard games. Then, over the final eight games - five of which were against the worst eight rush defenses (Lions - worst, Raiders - 31st, Broncos - 27th, Packers - 26th, Falcons - 25th), he tripled both totals, capped off by a career-defining four-score outburst in Week 16 vs. the Giants.

 

Now you could argue that since each of those teams had to play CAR, that was one of the reasons why they were so poor against the run. But since four of the aformentioned teams surrendered 24 or more TDs to the RB position (Atlanta gave up 18), I don't think that is really the case.

 

Here's another thing I said earlier that apparently was overlooked:

 

"I own DeAngelo in my keeper league and I've liked him since I saw him play at Memphis, so I hope I'm wrong."

 

Do you know of many keeper league owners who willingly admit one of their guys may not meet expectations? I don't want him to do poorly, I just don't see how he is going to put up huge numbers sharing carries with Stewart (I'm not going to project Stewart to miss half the season) against a more difficult schedule. I'll be thrilled if he can give me 1450 total yards and 10 scores, which I think is pretty much his ceiling in 2009 barring a long-term injury to Stewart.

 

and whats to say some of the "harder" defenses Williams faces won't have a bad month or two? Its such a poor argument in terms of dismissing what a guy did last year.

 

i take it you are one of those people who over values strength of schedule. Its a nice tool but don't put too much emphasis on it. Teams change quickly and tough defenses have "bad months" all the time.

[Filthy Fernadez 2,696]

I'm sold on the guy but am drafting 8th in 10 team PPR redraft. Some of the guys have pulled some boners in years past and DWIII may fall to me.

[The Football Guru 211]

(Bold parts made me laugh.) Hilarity of this post aside...

 

<3 the cherry picked story that fits your argument... but could you have honestly have predicted that Ron Dayne would outscore LT/FWP? 10/10 times I'd pick FWP/LT over Ron Dayne regardless of the matchup.

 

For me, if a RB has a good playoff schedule its a slight tick up, a bad one a slight tick down, but not a dealbreaker by any means. What people have repeated in this thread again and again, that football guru fails to realize, is that judging week 14/15/16, or 15/16/17 running defenses in August is the equivalent of stabbing yourself in the eye with a needle... dumb and unnecessary. Not to mention the converse of his argument actually has more merit. Tough to use that fluff playoff SoS in August if you are unable to make the playoffs in the first place.

 

Thanks for adding the amount of money to your leagues... it adds a sense of realism, makes me really impressed, and adds nothing to your argument.

 

Honestly, I wrestled the whole week over that decision, better player vs. top-notch defense or worst player against league-worst defense. Back for that stretch of time, Dayne was getting 15-20 carries, so it was a legit dilemma.

 

Using my best Herman Edwards impression, you play to win the game. In our case, we play to win fantasy league titles. I'm not interested in cruising into the playoffs and getting knocked off once I'm there. The schedule, along with talent, supporting cast and scheme are the things I care about. I don't put the schedule at the top of the list, but you are crazy to not seriously factor it into your decision.

 

If you don't like the fact that I mentioned the money I am laying down for my leagues, consider that I do not currently have a cush full-time job to finance my little expenditure. In other words, I am insane beyond belief or very confident in my ability to make money at this little hobby. Since my "dumb and unnecessary" judgements led to four points titles last season, two league titles and over $2000 in prize money, I'm going to say there is a little credibility to what I am preaching here. If you want a piece of this "easy money", come on over to Fuzzy's Fantasy Football and enter into the $250 leagues.

 

Now, back to Williams. What no one has answered yet is this: 1) Why won't Jonathan Stewart get another 180 or so carries this season? 2) What makes everyone so sure he won't be the first-half D-Will as opposed to the second-half D-Will? 3) Can you honestly say you want your RB1 to oppose a Bill Belichick defense, followed by a Vikings defense that has led the league in rushing defense the last three seasons capped off by a showdown against one of the deepest defenses in the league in the Giants? I'll be the first to tell you that no one can predict December in August, but I may as well jam a needle in my eye if I expect my RB1 to produce like one against that run of defenses. 4) If the loss of DT Maake Kemoeatu makes the Panthers run defense an average unit, how is Carolina going to run all day when it doesn't have the ball or the lead?

 

Once again, just because I state the importance of the schedule doesn't mean that is the only thing I'm looking at. But let me ask something real quick: when a RB has a down game, do each of you blame: 1) him, 2) the tough defense, 3) circumstance (such as his team falling behind early) or 4) bad luck? I assure you Michael Turner didn't decide to have 5-6 bad days last year on his own or that D-Will thought he should start the season slow last year just to make his second half look better.

 

In all my years of fantasy football, I can only think of two RBs who produced regardless of the opponent over a period of years: Marshall Faulk and Brian Westbrook (both for a short time and both when they were younger and healthier). As I stated earlier, D-Will is one of my three keepers in a league I'm in and I hope he joins that group...but I'm not counting on it.

 

Look, if you believe there is nothing to what I'm saying, keep doing it your way. My way has netted me at least one league title in every season since 1999 and made me a few thousand dollars and since I started paying closer attention to the schedule, I have won more often and more money. Suffice it to say, I like my way

[The Football Guru 211]

and whats to say some of the "harder" defenses Williams faces won't have a bad month or two? Its such a poor argument in terms of dismissing what a guy did last year.

 

i take it you are one of those people who over values strength of schedule. Its a nice tool but don't put too much emphasis on it. Teams change quickly and tough defenses have "bad months" all the time.

 

Really? I'm not counting on Plax shooting himself in the leg again. Don't try to tell me that you think it's coincidence that the Giants' play fell off across the board after that happened. The second part of what you said, I'm on board to a certain extent. But it's our job as fantasy owners is to figure out in the preseason how those changes affect the teams and to adjust our thinking quickly to the teams we were wrong about during the season.

 

Either way, between this post and my last one, if I haven't changed a mind by now, I probably won't ever be able to change it. Just don't try to make a case for D-Will being 1-2 with Peterson or 1-2-3 with AD and MJD.

[surferskin 30]

Anybody happen to catch D-Will's TD last night?

 

Some guys just have abilities that others dont have.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-pl...ay-Williams-way

[DeaLerZ 0]

i really don't understand why Stewart is still getting alot of hype?? at the beginning of last season the panthers didn't have a clear cut #1 running back so they were splitting carries to see which one emerged..a healthy competition to get the best production.. and what happenned.. DeAngelo Williams matured and has become the feature back.. and he was the most productive back by far.. he averaged 25.5 fantasy points per game the second half of the season once he got the full time role ...

 

stewart is already injured.. and he will do nothing more than spell deangelo for 5-10 carries a game.. nothing more than a change of pace back...

 

i am not sitting here saying that he is going to get the same production as last year, alot of factors go into that kind of production.. i am not saying he should be drafted #1...but regardless he is the feature back at Carolina for a lot of reasons, and he has amazing talent to get out in the open field.. that run he had vs miami in the pre season game on Saturday is a good example of something he does ALL THE TIME... those are NOT coincidences, or highlight plays that rarely occur... he is one of the best cut back runners in the game and one of the most elusive backs... anyone who is making up crap about stewart, or saying STAY AWAY from DeAngelo just doesn't want to believe that they were fooled by the FF Experts and didn't draft him themselves... he will be a top 5 back, and the reason he tore apart the Giants Defense wasn't because Plaxico left.. it was because he ran all over them... he had FOUR 1 yd TD runs... where was Stewart on those plays??? NO WHERE.. cause DeAngelo can do everything just fine, and more than just fine at that

[RLLD 3,455]

DeWill managed to feast on weak teams, or teams struggling. His half-season burst as an aberration for him, and to invest in that half season given that he has never been able to put it all together, and faces a far more challenging season this year would be inadvisable. Let someone else overspend on him....

[gridiron whirlwinds 2]

Anybody that actually watches this kid and can not tell that he is the real deal, is blind.

 

I mean seriously, this kids vision, ability to to stop on a dime, cutback across the grain, break tackles and just for good measure, he never fumbles.....he is something special.

 

Plain and simple , he has what I call the "IT" factor.

[DeaLerZ 0]

DeWill managed to feast on weak teams, or teams struggling. His half-season burst as an aberration for him, and to invest in that half season given that he has never been able to put it all together, and faces a far more challenging season this year would be inadvisable. Let someone else overspend on him....

 

Keep convincing yourself otherwise.... A guy has an amazing 8 games when he is given the full load.. and you have the audacity to say "His half-season burst was an aberration for him, and to invest in that half season given that he has never been able to put it all together, and faces a far more challenging season this year would be inadvisable"

 

i guess i didn't get the memo that 8 games at #1 isn't enough to consider a guy a dominant force... good luck convincing us all otherwise at the end of the season

[RLLD 3,455]

Keep convincing yourself otherwise.... A guy has an amazing 8 games when he is given the full load.. and you have the audacity to say "His half-season burst was an aberration for him, and to invest in that half season given that he has never been able to put it all together, and faces a far more challenging season this year would be inadvisable"

 

i guess i didn't get the memo that 8 games at #1 isn't enough to consider a guy a dominant force... good luck convincing us all otherwise at the end of the season

 

 

Thank you for allowing me to implement reason and objective analysis into my assessment, I really do appreciate it.

 

Good luck checking that broken thermostat

[nordwave 2]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-cant-miss-pl...ay-Williams-way

 

Nice TD run, but quite a few players in that video look a bit sunday-afternoon-flag-football-damn-it-is-hot-out-here-and-we-are-out-of-gatorade-so-i-am-gonna-jog-instead-of-run tired. Even DWill is jogging it into the end zone.

All that aside, I can probably think of 4 RBs I would take ahead of him. But I'd take him as high as 6.

The point is, go with your gut and ignore people who give you sh1t for it. DWill won't make it to the second round, so you better take him if you want him.

[Gladiators 1,904]

DeWill managed to feast on weak teams, or teams struggling. His half-season burst as an aberration for him, and to invest in that half season given that he has never been able to put it all together, and faces a far more challenging season this year would be inadvisable. Let someone else overspend on him....

 

The thing is, last year was also the first year he was given the chance to start. He's 26 years old and this will be his 4th year in the league. It's not like he's been given the opportunities in the past and didn't capitalize on them. I don't see why he can't pick up where he left off.

 

Another argument I've heard from so many people is that he's only done it for 1 year. Well, so have most of the other top 10 RB's other than AP, LT, and maybe Gore (I'd argue that he hasn't really produced as a RB1, but I'll concede that he's done it for multiple years for argument's sake).

 

MJD - first year as the main man

Turner - 1 year as the main man under his belt

Forte - 1 year as the main man under his belt

Slaton - 1 year as the main man under his belt

C Johnson - 1 year as mostly the main man under his belt

D Will - 1 year as mostly the main man under his belt

S Jax - 1 year that he truly produced as a RB1 (IMO)

 

I don't see how you can say any of the other guys on the list are any more deserving of a #4 pick than D Will. You're basically saying that he's only done it for 1/2 of a season, but that was one hell of a 1/2 season in his first real opportunity to do it.

 

With respect to the strength of schedule argument...Grab solid depth at RB and you won't have to worry about it. Take a guy that's going to have a cupcake schedule that you can get in round 5 or 6. Since you're in the big money leagues and know so much, you should know that you can't assume your team is going to be injury free and that you're going to make the playoffs. If you take a guy in the first round that gets injured, it doesn't matter what his schedule would have been. Grab good depth and you'll be okay though.

[RLLD 3,455]

The thing is, last year was also the first year he was given the chance to start. He's 26 years old and this will be his 4th year in the league. It's not like he's been given the opportunities in the past and didn't capitalize on them. I don't see why he can't pick up where he left off.

 

Another argument I've heard from so many people is that he's only done it for 1 year. Well, so have most of the other top 10 RB's other than AP, LT, and maybe Gore (I'd argue that he hasn't really produced as a RB1, but I'll concede that he's done it for multiple years for argument's sake).

 

MJD - first year as the main man

Turner - 1 year as the main man under his belt

Forte - 1 year as the main man under his belt

Slaton - 1 year as the main man under his belt

C Johnson - 1 year as mostly the main man under his belt

D Will - 1 year as mostly the main man under his belt

S Jax - 1 year that he truly produced as a RB1 (IMO)

 

I don't see how you can say any of the other guys on the list are any more deserving of a #4 pick than D Will. You're basically saying that he's only done it for 1/2 of a season, but that was one hell of a 1/2 season in his first real opportunity to do it.

 

With respect to the strength of schedule argument...Grab solid depth at RB and you won't have to worry about it. Take a guy that's going to have a cupcake schedule that you can get in round 5 or 6. Since you're in the big money leagues and know so much, you should know that you can't assume your team is going to be injury free and that you're going to make the playoffs. If you take a guy in the first round that gets injured, it doesn't matter what his schedule would have been. Grab good depth and you'll be okay though.

 

Running backs tend to not be fungible, there must be a certain analysis applied with regard to their specific circumstance, and while you have touted some provocative subjects by which one could measure the performance of the suddenly interesting Williams....strength of schedule has always been a factor for the FF enthusiast; more advanced members of the hobby prefer to use this assessment along with seemingly silly notions of O-line rankings, and changes in coaching or personnel to help them better place players on their draft sheet.

 

It may seem nonsensical on its face, but for those who follow it closely it can yield rewards, or at least help to avoid mistakes.

[surferskin 30]

Thank you for allowing me to implement reason and objective analysis into my assessment, I really do appreciate it.

 

Good luck checking that broken thermostat

I look forward to when you actually show us some factual "reasons" for your objective analysis.

[RLLD 3,455]

I look forward to when you actually show us some factual "reasons" for your objective analysis.

 

Perhaps your reading comprehension skills will arrive and join the class too

[Gladiators 1,904]

Running backs tend to not be fungible, there must be a certain analysis applied with regard to their specific circumstance, and while you have touted some provocative subjects by which one could measure the performance of the suddenly interesting Williams....strength of schedule has always been a factor for the FF enthusiast; more advanced members of the hobby prefer to use this assessment along with seemingly silly notions of O-line rankings, and changes in coaching or personnel to help them better place players on their draft sheet.

 

It may seem nonsensical on its face, but for those who follow it closely it can yield rewards, or at least help to avoid mistakes.

 

There are definitely a ton of factors that go into deciding where to rank guys and I've posted my reasoning for having him as a top 5 back in other D Will threads. I just don't buy the counter arguments I've seen in this thread. They're stretches IMO.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I'm beginning to change my opinion of DeAngelo. Kid is running like is freakin pants are on fire.

[KSB2424 3,082]

He went 3rd in my local draft yesterday.

[RLLD 3,455]

There are definitely a ton of factors that go into deciding where to rank guys and I've posted my reasoning for having him as a top 5 back in other D Will threads. I just don't buy the counter arguments I've seen in this thread. They're stretches IMO.

 

 

I think your argument in opposition to them is solid for what its worth, but I am not subscribing to your side of the argument at this time.

[VaTerp 0]

The thing that bothers me about Williams is that now everyone is calling him a beast and an animal, but last year everyone was taking Stewart in the 5th and Williams in the 9th. In fact I even read a thread last year talking about how Williams was good value and 80% of the responses were people saying Williams sucks and Stewart is the guy to get. All the sudden Williams became some beast after he couldn't separate himself from a guy that isn't even on a roster 2 years later. That just bugs the fock out of me.

 

I have heard this argument several times in regards to Williams and I just don't understand it.

 

1) To say that Williams couldn't separate himself from Foster is inaccurate. As a rookie he averaged 4.1 ypc to Foster's 4.0 on a Carolina team that struggled with O-line injuries all year. In the passing game though, Williams nearly doubled Foster's production on basically the same number of catches. The next year Williams averaged 5.0 ypc to Foster's 3.5. I'd say that averaging 1.5 more yards per carry is separating yourself. And in the 2 seasons they played together Williams scored the same number of TDs despite having over 200 less touches. For whatever reason (veteran trust/loyalty, etc.), Fox chose to give Foster over 100 more carries than Williams both years but DeAngelo was clearly the more productive RB. Sometimes NFL coaches don's always make the best decisions in terms of sitting veterans for younger players. It happens.

 

2) I'd like to see the thread where 80% of the responses said Williams "sucks." Even if it exists, then it really doesn't mean anything. NFL coaches are often wrong and we know about 1/10 of the football that they do. Last year Stewart was a shiny new toy in FF but even guys who were really high on him, like Waldman, noted that he would be sharing the backfield with a very talented RB in Williams.

 

3) DeAngelo Williams is a big time talent, period. He is the NCAA's all time leader in all purpose yards and 4th in career rushing yards. Say what you want about college stats but those are impressive numbers and indicative of a highly talented football player. Last year, in the only NFL season in which he got over 150 carries, he ran for over 1500 yards, averaged a ridiculous 5.5 ypc, and scored 20 total TDs. I don't care how you break down the schedule, thats an impressive year, especially when you consider that he had less than 300 total touches.

 

4) When you watch the guy play his talent is pretty obvious. He runs low, has great cutback ability, and is explosive in getting to the second level. He has also become stronger each year and now packs a pretty powerful frame on his 5'9 stature. You can break down all the stats you want but sometimes you have to go back to the "eye test." And my eyes tell me that Williams is an elite guy with the football in his hands.

 

In the end, you can make an argument for any number of RBs out there. Every RB out there has some reasons for concern so its really a matter of personal preference at this point. If you want to pass on Williams b/c of the presence of Stewart or the Panther's tougher schedule, or maybe some other reason then that is understandable but to say you're bothered by the false notion that he couldnt separate himself from DeShaun Foster in 06' and 07' is just illogical.

 

The fact is that once given the opportunity, Williams produced like a beast. Doesnt guarantee that he will be a top 5 FF RB this year but you cant guarantee that for anybody. He certainly merits consideration in the top half of drafts and is a 1st round pick pretty much anyway you look at it.

[DeaLerZ 0]

I have heard this argument several times in regards to Williams and I just don't understand it.

 

1) To say that Williams couldn't separate himself from Foster is inaccurate. As a rookie he averaged 4.1 ypc to Foster's 4.0 on a Carolina team that struggled with O-line injuries all year. In the passing game though, Williams nearly doubled Foster's production on basically the same number of catches. The next year Williams averaged 5.0 ypc to Foster's 3.5. I'd say that averaging 1.5 more yards per carry is separating yourself. And in the 2 seasons they played together Williams scored the same number of TDs despite having over 200 less touches. For whatever reason (veteran trust/loyalty, etc.), Fox chose to give Foster over 100 more carries than Williams both years but DeAngelo was clearly the more productive RB. Sometimes NFL coaches don's always make the best decisions in terms of sitting veterans for younger players. It happens.

 

2) I'd like to see the thread where 80% of the responses said Williams "sucks." Even if it exists, then it really doesn't mean anything. NFL coaches are often wrong and we know about 1/10 of the football that they do. Last year Stewart was a shiny new toy in FF but even guys who were really high on him, like Waldman, noted that he would be sharing the backfield with a very talented RB in Williams.

 

3) DeAngelo Williams is a big time talent, period. He is the NCAA's all time leader in all purpose yards and 4th in career rushing yards. Say what you want about college stats but those are impressive numbers and indicative of a highly talented football player. Last year, in the only NFL season in which he got over 150 carries, he ran for over 1500 yards, averaged a ridiculous 5.5 ypc, and scored 20 total TDs. I don't care how you break down the schedule, thats an impressive year, especially when you consider that he had less than 300 total touches.

 

4) When you watch the guy play his talent is pretty obvious. He runs low, has great cutback ability, and is explosive in getting to the second level. He has also become stronger each year and now packs a pretty powerful frame on his 5'9 stature. You can break down all the stats you want but sometimes you have to go back to the "eye test." And my eyes tell me that Williams is an elite guy with the football in his hands.

 

In the end, you can make an argument for any number of RBs out there. Every RB out there has some reasons for concern so its really a matter of personal preference at this point. If you want to pass on Williams b/c of the presence of Stewart or the Panther's tougher schedule, or maybe some other reason then that is understandable but to say you're bothered by the false notion that he couldnt separate himself from DeShaun Foster in 06' and 07' is just illogical.

 

The fact is that once given the opportunity, Williams produced like a beast. Doesnt guarantee that he will be a top 5 FF RB this year but you cant guarantee that for anybody. He certainly merits consideration in the top half of drafts and is a 1st round pick pretty much anyway you look at it.

 

i agree completely... thanks for taking the time to write what i wanted to say.. but i can't get away from work for 5 minutes to put that much time into a response

[Kent 228]

How come no one ever mentions Chester Taylor stealing carries from Peterson? How is Stewart any more a threat than Taylor? I'd actually argue that Taylor is better than Stewart and sure seems alot more durable. That whole arguement is bs to me. To me D-Will is 1B and Adrian is 1A. If I picked #1 overall I'd personally be torn between the two.

 

Because AP had had like 360 carries last year. Not much of a committee going on in Min.