LT at #4? Crazy?

[ebterp 0]

Am I crazy to take LT at #4 - I just am not buying into all the bs that is pushing him so far down. In my league last year he was the 7th best RB in a down year - If he puts up those #'s or better he will end up top 5 easily as I think there will be a couple of busts elsewhere. Relatively easy schedule - good offense - honestly outside of AP and Forte he may be the safest play as well.

 

EZ

[Kent 228]

Am I crazy to take LT at #4 - I just am not buying into all the bs that is pushing him so far down. In my league last year he was the 7th best RB in a down year - If he puts up those #'s or better he will end up top 5 easily as I think there will be a couple of busts elsewhere. Relatively easy schedule - good offense - honestly outside of AP and Forte he may be the safest play as well.

 

EZ

 

Not at all crazy. He had a bad year last year for him and still was fine.

 

A good LT year and you've got a stud.

 

A great LT year and you've got a fantasy championship.

[DeaLerZ 0]

Not at all crazy. He had a bad year last year for him and still was fine.

 

A good LT year and you've got a stud.

 

A great LT year and you've got a fantasy championship.

 

I picked him at #4 too

[Phil Simms 11 127]

i say bad move. Have you seen SD's O-line?

[da_mane_man 1]

how exactly does san diego have a bad o-line?

 

their LT is McNeil. a pro bowler. and he's young

 

their LG is Dielman. a pro bowler in 2007. he's 28,

 

thier C is Hardwick. pro bowler in 2007. he's 27

 

at RG they have Forney. not the best guy, but certainly serviceable. he was a pro bowl alternate in 2005.

 

at RT they've got Jeromey Clary. he's 25 and he's big. probably the weakest link, but he did beat out Shane Olivea 2 years ago.

 

 

now, how in the world is that a bad line? and remember, LT doesn't exactly need a line full of pro bowlers to get things done. he can make people miss too.

[9-Route 0]

how exactly does san diego have a bad o-line?

 

their LT is McNeil. a pro bowler. and he's young

 

their LG is Dielman. a pro bowler in 2007. he's 28,

 

thier C is Hardwick. pro bowler in 2007. he's 27

 

at RG they have Forney. not the best guy, but certainly serviceable. he was a pro bowl alternate in 2005.

 

at RT they've got Jeromey Clary. he's 25 and he's big. probably the weakest link, but he did beat out Shane Olivea 2 years ago.

now, how in the world is that a bad line? and remember, LT doesn't exactly need a line full of pro bowlers to get things done. he can make people miss too.

 

1] clary is b-r-o-k-e. read the reports----they did not run right in half their games, and it made them predictable. this was per HC turner and GM smith.

 

2] making people miss, or trying to do so, is what's getting him hurt. his body is not the same as it was less 2600 carries ago, along with the slides and jukes and fakes and stuttersteps. starting out 100% healthy right now is not the issue or problem---it is having the body to make those elite football moves repeatedly, and recover from them to continue to do so.

[Flaximus 2]

1] clary is b-r-o-k-e. read the reports----they did not run right in half their games, and it made them predictable. this was per HC turner and GM smith.

 

2] making people miss, or trying to do so, is what's getting him hurt. his body is not the same as it was less 2600 carries ago, along with the slides and jukes and fakes and stuttersteps. starting out 100% healthy right now is not the issue or problem---it is having the body to make those elite football moves repeatedly, and recover from them to continue to do so.

 

 

I have to agree with not picking him that early. The risk is just too great to invest a high pick on someone in his position. His odometer is going up not down. Trying to say that he is going bounce back to form from 2 years ago is wishful at best. A back at his age with that many carries can deteriorate very rapidly. His #'s in just about every category have declined for 3 years in a row. The chances are much, much greater that he will continue that decline rather than bounce back. I see too many younger, up and coming backs available than trying to gamble your 2009 squad with him at #4

 

my $.02

[jerryskids 5,172]

I have to agree with not picking him that early. The risk is just too great to invest a high pick on someone in his position. His odometer is going up not down. Trying to say that he is going bounce back to form from 2 years ago is wishful at best. A back at his age with that many carries can deteriorate very rapidly. His #'s in just about every category have declined for 3 years in a row. The chances are much, much greater that he will continue that decline rather than bounce back. I see too many younger, up and coming backs available than trying to gamble your 2009 squad with him at #4

 

my $.02

This.

[Kent 228]

I have to agree with not picking him that early. The risk is just too great to invest a high pick on someone in his position. His odometer is going up not down. Trying to say that he is going bounce back to form from 2 years ago is wishful at best. A back at his age with that many carries can deteriorate very rapidly. His #'s in just about every category have declined for 3 years in a row. The chances are much, much greater that he will continue that decline rather than bounce back. I see too many younger, up and coming backs available than trying to gamble your 2009 squad with him at #4

 

my $.02

 

Of course his numbers are going to decline when you set the bar at 20 plus TDs. His numbers may decline but that's not a valid knock on him IMO. He had crazy numbers 3 years ago in every category. He's still elite with declining numbers. And he's got the every down back thing going for him strong in todays RBBC fantasy world.

 

The other young RBs like Slaton and Johnson scored like 12 TDs last year each. For LT, that's no sweat. For a guy like Johnson and Slaton, 12 could be their ceiling.

[Flaximus 2]

Of course his numbers are going to decline when you set the bar at 20 plus TDs. His numbers may decline but that's not a valid knock on him IMO. He had crazy numbers 3 years ago in every category. He's still elite with declining numbers. And he's got the every down back thing going for him strong in todays RBBC fantasy world.

 

The other young RBs like Slaton and Johnson scored like 12 TDs last year each. For LT, that's no sweat. For a guy like Johnson and Slaton, 12 could be their ceiling.

 

I believe that meeting the #'s of these young backs WILL be a sweat for LT. He seemed to finish anywhere from 5th to 7th for RB's in most people's scoring systems last year. Unless you think his #'s are going to improve, why take him at # 4. If you think that than go for it, but I would rather gamble on someone like CJ or Slaton improving on their rookie #'s.

[Kent 228]

I believe that meeting the #'s of these young backs WILL be a sweat for LT. He seemed to finish anywhere from 5th to 7th for RB's in most people's scoring systems last year. Unless you think his #'s are going to improve, why take him at # 4. If you think that than go for it, but I would rather gamble on someone like CJ or Slaton improving on their rookie #'s.

 

Well, LT had his numbers and he was hurt. He's not hurt right now and is the man all by himself in San Diego. I think he's a much lesser risk. But its just my opinion.

 

I like the young RBs too. Heck, I had CJ last year. But at #4, I have no issue with LT and am having a hard time picking a different back over him when he's 100%.

[da_mane_man 1]

i dont see it. he has missed one game in 8 years. think about that for a second. his training is crazy.

 

his line is definitely better this year and he doesn't have turf toe this year. how could he be worse? i could see all the carries scaring people away from clinton portis who has a history of injuries, but LT doesn't.

 

is it just the thinking of "oh, he's 30, he's bound to break down soon"?? i mean, i agree with that and i don't. rbs with that many carries have to break down at some point, but you would have said the same thing about favre...

 

all in all, LT is a risk at 4 (or in my case, 5) but i don't see any other sure things in there either. fitz could easily be outperformed by 2 or 3 other receivers this year. chris johnson has lendale vulturing tds from him and he's only in his second year. slaton is not a big dude, and he will never be a goal line back. he could get a lot of yards, but i don't think he'll ever put up tds to warrant that kind of pick. he also seems very injury prone to me. idk why, maybe his WV days? was he hurt back then? speaking of injury prone, that brings me to deangelo williams. it seems like he was always Questionable the first 3 years of his career. he's got jonathan stewart who looks very impressive. he's also got the most brutal fantasy playoff schedule i've ever seen i think.

 

all these guys have question marks.

[WhiteWonder 2,171]

im actually agreeing with Kent on something? amazing

 

for all the LT nay-sayers, what about his situation has gotten worse? Last year with toe and groin injuries and a weaker o-line than usual, he still put up top 5 RB numbers in PPR.

 

so lets see, toe and groin are fine as of now. Hardwick *his center* has not missed all of training camp, pre season and 3 regular season games with a foot injury like he did last year. I won't say Clary will be better but another offseason and camp could have helped him a bit.

 

I just see nothing but improvements. And certainly nothing that tells me it will be hard to match last years production.

 

In non PPR i don't think I would take him 4th but in PPR's he is one of those special guys.

[PATSSOX 22]

go with LT he is healthy and has a chip on his shoulder and last year had a dreaded toe injury for a RB and still produced

[RonsRockers 0]

I think LT hits the big 30 this year, thats like 50 for a RB He's had alot of touches and has a burner on the bench chomping at the bit.

on the plus side I also think he has a chip on his shoulder to prove he sill is a dominate rusher in the league. good line, good skill position players around him, I also think he will have many opportubities to get in the endzone this year.

[TAM2020 0]

I took him at #4 in a 1 pt ppr league. He's the feature back in a very good offense. He does not get taken out at the goal line and he catches lots of passes. He plays Denver, Oakland, and KC 6 times.

 

He may, and I stress may, not get as many rushing yards as Turner (who usually goes at 4) but I think he gets more TD's and he gets exponentially more passes.

 

When you compare all of the intangibles with Turner, SJAX, even Forte, I think its not unreasonable to take him at #4.

[studlyLT 0]

actually you would be silly not taking him of AP, forte and Turner are gone. He had a horrible year, and still finsihed 7th. He is a freak. 30 means nothing, and he looks good in preason. Not good numbers, but quick.

[enoto 0]

im actually agreeing with Kent on something? amazing

 

for all the LT nay-sayers, what about his situation has gotten worse? Last year with toe and groin injuries and a weaker o-line than usual, he still put up top 5 RB numbers in PPR.

 

so lets see, toe and groin are fine as of now. Hardwick *his center* has not missed all of training camp, pre season and 3 regular season games with a foot injury like he did last year. I won't say Clary will be better but another offseason and camp could have helped him a bit.

 

I just see nothing but improvements. And certainly nothing that tells me it will be hard to match last years production.

 

In non PPR i don't think I would take him 4th but in PPR's he is one of those special guys.

 

Umm, the obvious answer to the question is....age, more wear and tear? He is certainly not getting younger and his tires aren't getting more tred on them. Not saying saying he is washed up or not worth a high pick...but you did ask what has gotten worse.