Mr. Tomlinson

[Texansfan 0]

Is he the ultimate "buy low" canidate right now, or is he done?

 

Now seems like the time to strike.

 

He has the bye week to heal, and should be relatively "fresh" considering he's only had 20 carries through the 1st 4 games of the season.

 

Thoughts?

[mambokings 0]

You're too late, my friend. The time to buy low on LT was early in the season, when his owners were ready to throw in the towel on their fantasy season after seeing him get hurt in Week 1. Now he's back. Now he's healthy. And the Chargers have a BYE week to make some adjustments in their gameplan and hopefully fix the defense a little. Tomlinson had bad stats against the Steelers, but his owners were looking for one thing: health. He looked quicker than he did in the first game and came out of it healthy. Unless you get a really amateur FF owner, or are willing to pay a high price for a question mark, I don't see it happening. His owners have waited this long and he's finally ready to produce. LT has a nice schedule moving forward and we all know he hasn't come anywhere near his potential. They aren't going to sell cheap on a stock they've held on to which is now on the rise.

[TheGiantJets 18]

I remember all the buy low talk about Shaun Alexander years ago. Don't buy into him. I think he's on the decline

[TheGiantJets 18]

I remember all the buy low talk about Shaun Alexander years ago, he never was the same. Don't buy into LT. I think he's on the decline

[Jags_win_this_year 0]

frankly I'm not sure about Tomlinson but if you can get him for a song then it won't hurt you if he doesn't produce and if he does you will have a great ace in the hole. I own him in one league and I'm not letting him go until after I see him come out of his bye week.

[mambokings 0]

I remember all the buy low talk about Shaun Alexander years ago. Don't buy into him. I think he's on the decline

 

I remember all the buy low talk about Shaun Alexander years ago, he never was the same. Don't buy into LT. I think he's on the decline

 

I think we understood the first time

[Borat33 17]

It's time to take LT out to the pasture and finish him off. HE IS DONE!

[kmbryant09 1]

You're too late, my friend. The time to buy low on LT was early in the season, when his owners were ready to throw in the towel on their fantasy season after seeing him get hurt in Week 1. Now he's back. Now he's healthy. And the Chargers have a BYE week to make some adjustments in their gameplan and hopefully fix the defense a little. Tomlinson had bad stats against the Steelers, but his owners were looking for one thing: health. He looked quicker than he did in the first game and came out of it healthy. Unless you get a really amateur FF owner, or are willing to pay a high price for a question mark, I don't see it happening. His owners have waited this long and he's finally ready to produce. LT has a nice schedule moving forward and we all know he hasn't come anywhere near his potential. They aren't going to sell cheap on a stock they've held on to which is now on the rise.

What game were you watching??? He got 7 carries for 15 yards, and had about 3 or 4 carries where he literally took 2 steps toward the line of scrimmage and fell forward. He reminds me of Jamal Lewis moreso than anything. And his OLine is absolutely horrid in runblocking. Neither Sproles nor LT will find production on the ground this year.

[Ramrock 17]

I'm with Mambo on this one , The only team I think he could struggle running against the rest of the year is the Giants.

[TheGiantJets 18]

I think we understood the first time

 

Not sure what happened there. Maybe its a sign that it really is LT's time to make way for sproles

[DexterMorgan 5]

What game were you watching??? He got 7 carries for 15 yards, and had about 3 or 4 carries where he literally took 2 steps toward the line of scrimmage and fell forward. He reminds me of Jamal Lewis moreso than anything. And his OLine is absolutely horrid in runblocking. Neither Sproles nor LT will find production on the ground this year.

 

This is what i saw. He looks horrible.

[mambokings 0]

Not sure what happened there. Maybe its a sign that it really is LT's time to make way for sproles

1 - you can edit and delete your own posts

 

2- Sproles had a few weeks to prove he isn't suited to carrying the ball. I thought it was a very good sign that LT played the entire game against the Steelers, even up to the end, in a blowout, and got time in passing situations too. Remember it was believed that he'd get pulled on obvious passing downs? That wasn't the case now that he's healthy. That told me a lot about what to expect moving forward and LT owners should be happy with such a development. Tomlinson always had good hands so it didn't quite make sense to me that he was just going to be removed from the passing game entirely.

[Texansfan 0]

Since the majority of you are saying he's washed up and done, I guess now is indeed the time to buy low!

 

[GridIronAssassin#1 0]

I'd probably give you Donald Brown for LT. Not sure if you'd get Coffee or Kevin Smith though.

[mambokings 0]

I own him in one league and I'm not letting him go until after I see him come out of his bye week.

 

That's the whole point. LT owners have waited this long that now he's finally healthy and gets a BYE for the team to make adjustments, they'll want to see what comes of it. This is the worst time to go for LT because he's on the mend and his owners - if they've held on for this long - want to see him in a full game against someone other than the Pittsburgh Steelers. After the BYE, Tomlinson plays Denver, KC, and Oakland. I don't think the Broncos D is as good as advertised (look who've they've played) and the Raiders/Chiefs are among the worst against the run. Hell, even in these 1.5 games in which LT has played, he's been right there sniffing touchdowns. It's definitely worth waiting, if you own LT.

[lambert58 71]

I would buy him low..

 

Week 1 he has a touchdown

 

Injured and then comes back against the top ranked Defense from last year.

 

 

I can see him doing very well against KC and Oakland after the Bye.. Then you might want to look at selling.

[FlaHawker 24]

Take LT to the nearest glue factory; he's done.

[extrmmxer 2]

LT owner here. It's tough to admit but he's done as an elite. I had high hopes. After watching him miss blitz assignments and Rivers talking to him about it on the field, made me feel bad for him. Watching an all time greats demise right before our eyes.

 

A couple things I noted:

 

LT still has the vision and mindset to run but it's apparant his body wont let him. He's tripping over his own feet, falling down & foward without getting hit and dropping passes.

 

He's lost his confidence

 

Chargers offensive line is terrible. The line is clearly built for pass protection.

 

Chargers are built for passing only. Three - 6' 3 or taller Wideouts. Than you have Gates and Sproles.

 

Chargers defense is atrocious. You need a good D to run the ball. Bad D makes you throw all day.

 

Bottom line: it doesn't look good for LT. We LT owners can only hope the Chargers offensive line gets better and their defense improves. This should at least allow LT to be a serviceable RB2 or high end RB3. Keeping my fingers crossed.

 

I don't think you'll be able to buy low because as an LT owner it's hard to admit the above.

[Runningriot1966 6]

I have seen him just trip over his own feet two or three times. Two for sure were on the goalline. Either he is out of shape or getting clumsy. Im still hoping for some production from him and plan to see what happens after the bye with the ease up of the schedule. Im thinking he might be done however, I do have Sproles in case.

[PackYourNut 47]

LT is not a game changer anymore, but he's still the #1 back on a potent offense. They have some good match ups along the way as well. I would trade for him now if I could. While I don't see tons of yards he could still easily post 10 more TD's by years end. Who you gonna trade for that will do that?

[jgilkey513 6]

As an LT owner I've had about enough. Yes he looked decent cutting the ball, but there was nothing after that...no downhill running. Hell even the TD he scored in game 1 was questionable.

 

I'm thinking sell now because all he has is upside and you won't get real value later.

 

What about Andre Johnson in a trade straight up?

[Borat33 17]

As an LT owner I've had about enough. Yes he looked decent cutting the ball, but there was nothing after that...no downhill running. Hell even the TD he scored in game 1 was questionable.

 

I'm thinking sell now because all he has is upside and you won't get real value later.

 

What about Andre Johnson in a trade straight up?

 

If the Andre Johnson owner is dumb enough to make that trade then by all means pull the trigger. I think you would be lucky if you got a Houshmanzedah type for him myself.

[Terpnut 5 0]

I tried to trade him and got absolutely no interest. I was targeting guys like R. White and a couple of package deals. I tried S. Smith (NYG) and LT for Slaton, no dice. Granted my league doesn't trade a lot but my point is us LT owners are stuck with him. That being said, I feel he'll be a servicable RB2 moving forward maybe averaging 80 yards +/- a game a TD 2 out 3 games. That should put him close to 1,000 yards and 7-8 TD's. Maybe throw in a big game or two with some passing game production and you could end up with 1,100 and 10, which is decent for a RB2. The positives are his schedule really does ease up, Sproles has proven he's not able to handle the load, LT should be fresh and you would think the chargers brass would realize they need to run the ball to go deep in Jan. The main issue I see is the O-line. For a team that has so many weapons outside, defenses shouldn't be able to put 8 in the box and I don't think they are, which means SD should be able to run the ball but haven't. We'll see. I'm holding more due to lack of interest but I do feel he can help down the line.

[jgilkey513 6]

The Johnson owner (heh) is very slim at RB and is panicking a little. I guess I'll find out today. I'm praying to god.

[kmbryant09 1]

I tried to trade him and got absolutely no interest. I was targeting guys like R. White and a couple of package deals. I tried S. Smith (NYG) and LT for Slaton, no dice. Granted my league doesn't trade a lot but my point is us LT owners are stuck with him. That being said, I feel he'll be a servicable RB2 moving forward maybe averaging 80 yards +/- a game a TD 2 out 3 games. That should put him close to 1,000 yards and 7-8 TD's. Maybe throw in a big game or two with some passing game production and you could end up with 1,100 and 10, which is decent for a RB2. The positives are his schedule really does ease up, Sproles has proven he's not able to handle the load, LT should be fresh and you would think the chargers brass would realize they need to run the ball to go deep in Jan. The main issue I see is the O-line. For a team that has so many weapons outside, defenses shouldn't be able to put 8 in the box and I don't think they are, which means SD should be able to run the ball but haven't. We'll see. I'm holding more due to lack of interest but I do feel he can help down the line.

I'm really not trying to start an argument - but what have you seen out of LT in the last 6 weeks (dating back to last year's playoffs) that suggest he's good for ~80 yards a week and a score 2/3 of the time? So far this season he has 20 carries for 70 yards (3.5 ypa), and most of those came against the atrocious Raiders. He's already missed 2.5 games out of a possible 4, and hasn't done anything in the receiving game. Heck, even his TD was nothing more than a 1 yd plunger.

 

He does have some solid matchups, but also some very sh!tty matchups like the Giants, Broncos twice, Dallas, Tennessee. Even some of the other matchups are somewhat tougher than they appear, like Cincy and Philly.

 

I'm not an LT owner, but this dude looks done. As someone else pointed out, SD is now a pass first, pass second, heck even pass third team, with Rivers, Gates, Jackson, Sproles, Chambers, and Nanee. Their OLine can't create holes for LT, and LT certainly can't make room for himself anymore. Sorry guys, but I wouldn't even trade a Leon Washington type RB for LT.

[m4rk0 0]

Amen kmbryant09.

[Terpnut 5 0]

I'm really not trying to start an argument - but what have you seen out of LT in the last 6 weeks (dating back to last year's playoffs) that suggest he's good for ~80 yards a week and a score 2/3 of the time? So far this season he has 20 carries for 70 yards (3.5 ypa), and most of those came against the atrocious Raiders. He's already missed 2.5 games out of a possible 4, and hasn't done anything in the receiving game. Heck, even his TD was nothing more than a 1 yd plunger.

 

He does have some solid matchups, but also some very sh!tty matchups like the Giants, Broncos twice, Dallas, Tennessee. Even some of the other matchups are somewhat tougher than they appear, like Cincy and Philly.

 

I'm not an LT owner, but this dude looks done. As someone else pointed out, SD is now a pass first, pass second, heck even pass third team, with Rivers, Gates, Jackson, Sproles, Chambers, and Nanee. Their OLine can't create holes for LT, and LT certainly can't make room for himself anymore. Sorry guys, but I wouldn't even trade a Leon Washington type RB for LT.

 

Fair points but in week one he went 13 for 55 and a TD and didn't play the second half due to injury. If he's not hurt in that game he easily hits 80 yards and looked decent doing it. I put very little on the PIT game because they were down from the start and it was his first game back. The guy totaled almost 1,500 yards from scrimmage last season with 9 TD's while hurt. What have you seen that would lead you to feel he's completely washed up? They face one rush defense in the top 10 (TEN) the rest of the way and only DEN and CIN are in the top 20 rush defenses. Think those two will be that strong the rest of the way? I don't and will take my chances. Every other defense he faces is ranked 23 and below against the run including the NYG, PHI, KC (twice), DAL and so on. the reality is you don't generally win in the NFL throwing the ball all over the lot. SD will figure this out and start to utilize LT more. If they don't so be it but don't expect a deep playoff run. They don't have the defense to support an offense that can't sustain drives. I'm not sure why those projections are so unrealistic? Hell Bradshaw in NY, McCoy in PHI, Jones in DAL and several more could have those types of numbers or close to it and they don't even start. Like I said in my post, my real concern is the O line and if they don't get that squared away, it really doesn't matter.

 

Oh and BTW, you would trade Washington for LT.

[kmbryant09 1]

Fair points but in week one he went 13 for 55 and a TD and didn't play the second half due to injury. If he's not hurt in that game he easily hits 80 yards and looked decent doing it. I put very little on the PIT game because they were down from the start and it was his first game back. The guy totaled almost 1,500 yards from scrimmage last season with 9 TD's while hurt. What have you seen that would lead you to feel he's completely washed up? They face one rush defense in the top 10 (TEN) the rest of the way and only DEN and CIN are in the top 20 rush defenses. Think those two will be that strong the rest of the way? I don't and will take my chances. Every other defense he faces is ranked 23 and below against the run including the NYG, PHI, KC (twice), DAL and so on. the reality is you don't generally win in the NFL throwing the ball all over the lot. SD will figure this out and start to utilize LT more. If they don't so be it but don't expect a deep playoff run. They don't have the defense to support an offense that can't sustain drives. I'm not sure why those projections are so unrealistic? Hell Bradshaw in NY, McCoy in PHI, Jones in DAL and several more could have those types of numbers or close to it and they don't even start. Like I said in my post, my real concern is the O line and if they don't get that squared away, it really doesn't matter.

 

Oh and BTW, you would trade Washington for LT.

 

Fair points, but to address the bold...I dunno, I've seen him play this year, and the last two playoff performances Have you watched the games??? He hasn't looked good AT ALL, nor has his OLine. And the Pitt game is very telling to me for a few reasons: the Chargers DEF is awful at this point, which means they'll play from behind their fair share.. And if they aren't going to give LT the ball when they are behind, I don't care if you're AP, you're sh!t out of luck Also, RBs usually run the ball more successfully when behind big, on a ypc basis. Obviously this is because DEF's start defending the pass more, only leaving 6-7 players in the box. LT RAN 7 TIMES FOR 15 YARDS........What was his longest, like 5 yards???? Even against OAK, the 2 or 3 runs that he broke for 8+ yards, those were runs he used to break for 20+. That nice bounce to the outside against the Steelers, it took him about 6-8 steps to beat that defender to the outside. 3 Years ago, he made one juke, made that defender look silly, and bounced outside for 20 yards...This year??? 6 yards.

 

And to address trade matters, I've been offered LT and Manningham for Washington and S. Moss, and didn't even think twice before declining that trade. Heck, IF I was a Sproles owner, I wouldn't trade him straight up for LT.

[jbeef86 0]

bottom line is that Sproles is not an everydown back and cant run between tackles as seen the 2 weeks LT missed. If healthy LT is still the guy in SD. What does that mean? Who knows but he does have good value if healthy....not great value but good since the offense is nice and defenses cant just put 11 guys in the box like they do against the Raiders. The division is terrible on top of it and the teams will probably get worse as the season goes on.

[ProDiDaL_SoN 0]

If you are are trying to trade LT wait until he plays KC and Oak when he's fresh off the bye and running the clock out. he will put up at least 180 yds and 2 td's with some receptions. that way you get the best production from hime and can trade him away against the tougher defences..

[Jags_win_this_year 0]

Reality Checks:

 

1. I think we can all agree that Jamal Lewis has been an empty jersey for ATLEAST 2 years now on a terrible team that plays from behind and I think we can all agree he has been a low end RB2 high end RB3. I think a Jamal Lewis situation is a worse case Scenario.

 

2. No completition for him, Sproles is electric as a change of pace but not a feature guy, and when has Bennett has been given every chance in multiple places to produce.

 

3. LT is notorious for starting slow, many a championships has been won trading for LT2 after week 2-4 when his owners are in panic mode

 

I'll agree that sometimes they do just fall off the table with their production but I think we can easily gleen high end RB2 numbers from LT2 the rest of the way.

 

Disclosure, I own him in one league but thinking of making a play for him now that I see EVERYONE is so down on him, might be able to get him super cheap.

[PackYourNut 47]

Sorry guys, but I wouldn't even trade a Leon Washington type RB for LT.

 

Dude, wtf... LT vs Leon Washington???? I hope your just trying to make a point. But, in case your not. I will bet you anything you got that LT out points Leon from here on out! Seriously, anything. And I fully expect you to pay, just like I will pay. No big Willie bullsh!t.... just an honest mans bet... for whatever.

[The Football Guru 222]

I find this debate utterly interesting and amusing, after reading this thread. Interesting as a LT owner and amusting because there is a wealth of different opinions here considering we have all seen the same games. (With all the different opinions here on one of the most accomplished backs in NFL history, is it any wonder "talent evaluators" are wrong so often?)

 

On one hand, is this board full of hopeful LT owners vs. people who believe there are no exceptions to the over-30 rule? Or is it that people are seeing he still has something left vs. the people who simply buy into what the "major" fantasy sites out there say?

 

I, for one, don't know what Norv is thinking yet. In the opener, Sproles was in on just about every third-down chance and saw seven pass targets. Against PIT, Sproles gets one touch, one target and did little more than return kicks. And it's counterintuitive b/c against a heavier blitzing team like Pittsburgh, Sproles should have seen more action in the passing game than he did against Oakland. Was LT not healthy prior to the opener?

 

What I do know is that I liked what I saw the few times LT ran the ball. Granted, he isn't 27 anymore, but he still has enough to be a highly productive back in most matchups. I thought the 1-2 times he had a hole he could run through, he pressed b/c either he has become accustomed to not getting good blocking from his line or is still in "early season LT" mode. No one in their right mind had 2006 LT in mind when they drafted him, but something around 2008 LT was probably a reasonable expectation.

 

Another thing to note: while everyone knew Pittsburgh was a bad matchup, it should be recognized that only one other runner with significant carries in a game averaged over four yards/carry vs. Oakland - Correll Buckhalter. Not Knowshon Moreno, not Steve Slaton...not even Darren Sproles. LT did most of his damage on a sprained ankle.

 

SO, for LT's owners who will be going on five weeks of substandard LT production after his bye, is he still a RB2 in PPR leagues? In non-PPR?

[rallo 136]

i sort of want to make a move for him, but i don't know when the time would be... i feel it would be hard unless i gave a lot because of his 'name'... big name athletes are hard to trade away for some FF owners... i think the highest i'd want to go would be k. smith straight up... call me crazy but i don't know if i want to take that big of a risk for LT... i'd be more comfortable packaging a knowshon moreno type with a WR... but i don't feel that the LT owner would bite... i guess this is one of those parties that i'll just have to sit out...

 

(i'm unsure if the owner would even bite on k. smith straight up to tell you the truth)

[kmbryant09 1]

Dude, wtf... LT vs Leon Washington???? I hope your just trying to make a point. But, in case your not. I will bet you anything you got that LT out points Leon from here on out! Seriously, anything. And I fully expect you to pay, just like I will pay. No big Willie bullsh!t.... just an honest mans bet... for whatever.

Whooaaa relax - what happened to a gentleman's bet?? I wouldn't be surprised to see LT outproduce Leon, but here's why I wouldn't do the trade (besides thinking that LT is completely done):

-I have AP, Grant, and K. Smith - I'm not in the market for another every week RB, if thats what LT becomes. I don't need to take that chance. All I need is someone on my bench to put up 7-10 points when my RBs have a bye, or a tough matchup, or a small injury (like K. Smith).

-Leon Washington is in his prime, and has been a focal point of this offense this season. To be honest, I'm surprised he hasn't produced MORE points. He's had some tough matchups against TENN, NE, and NO. His schedule the rest of the way looks like a cake-walk.

-I play in a PPR league, Washington has 11 catches for 72 yards (I think those are much lower per game #s than what he'll finish with). LT has exactly 2 catches for 0 yards. Washington is that change-of-pace, electrifying, change-of-pace RB who can make a difference on 3rd and longs, trick plays, and certainly in the passing game. The Chargers have that, it just happens to be Sproles.

-Because of his involvement in the passing game, he's more matchup proof than is LT. With those tough matchups (and not performing great, IMO), Washington has put up 12 points, 8 points, 5 points, and 11 points. LT showed us Sunday night, and as one other person put it - when the Chargers get behind against a good team, LT is taken completely out of the gameplan.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Washington actually does outperform LT the rest of the way, but I certainly wouldn't "bet" on it. Simply put...on my team, in my league, in my opinion, Leon Washington is a better fit for me right now...that's all

[mambokings 0]

Because of his involvement in the passing game, he's more matchup proof than LT...LT showed us Sunday night, and as one other person put it - when the Chargers get behind against a good team, LT is taken completely out of the gameplan.

Did you even watch the game? Tomlinson played all four quarters, passing downs and all. Sproles barely saw the field, except for Special Teams duty. Even in the blowout against the Steelers, LT was there until the end. You should try watching some games and not just reading final stats, to avoid making further erroneous statements.

[The Football Guru 222]

Check out the deal I was just offered (PPR):

 

I receive:

Fred Taylor, Mike Wallace and LT

 

I give:

Bradshaw, Mike Bell, Giants DST (I have the Niners)

 

I don't care much about Taylor (although I have Faulk and Maroney in reserve...LOL), but I have Jacobs, so I'm a bit leery of leaving him unprotected by dealing Bradshaw. The deal would leave me with MJD, Jacobs, LT and Taylor at RB and Steve Smith (NYG), Megatron, A Gon, Garcon, Earl Bennett and Wallace at WR. I can start as many as 3 RBs and 4 WRs.

[Jags_win_this_year 0]

Check out the deal I was just offered (PPR):

 

I receive:

Fred Taylor, Mike Wallace and LT

 

I give:

Bradshaw, Mike Bell, Giants DST (I have the Niners)

 

I don't care much about Taylor (although I have Faulk and Maroney in reserve...LOL), but I have Jacobs, so I'm a bit leery of leaving him unprotected by dealing Bradshaw. The deal would leave me with MJD, Jacobs, LT and Taylor at RB and Steve Smith (NYG), Megatron, A Gon, Garcon, Earl Bennett and Wallace at WR. I can start as many as 3 RBs and 4 WRs.

 

I take that deal right now in a redraft.

 

this gives me hope on stealing LT away...

[steelers2101 7]

As an LT owner, here are a few facts and likely biased opinions:

 

1. He looks faster than he did last year, and he is healthier now than he was all last year with whatever he was dealing with (turf toe, etc...).

 

2. Last year, an unhealthier and slower LT had 1110 yards rushing and 426 yards receiving with 12 total TDs.

 

3. His rest of the year schedule includes: Oakland once, KC twice, Cleveland, Dallas, Cincy, Denver twice. His 3 difficult matchups are NYG, Philly and Tennessee.

 

Also, check out the deal my negotiating counterpart is (or pretending to be) hesitant to offer (in PPR keeper league):

 

His Welker, Mendenhall, Willie Parker

 

for

 

LT, Eddie Royal, Baltimore D (or Jets D)

 

I told him I'd consider it without Baltimore or Jets D included, but I don't know if it's worth giving up a D too (or which one I'd rather give up for that matter).

 

What do you guys think? Is doing it even without including on of my elite Ds a good idea? Or do you think I shouldn't be hesitant even with the Ds included?

[ROCKET 0]

LT was just dumped in my auction league for Mendenhall. He will hit waivers and someone will possibly pick him up but I doubt it. He went for 35 mil out of a 100 mil salary cap and to aquire him you need to pay at least 17.5 mil. There are'nt alot of other players you could dump that were busts who cost that much so I bet he sits on waivers barring injury to another rb.

 

He's done IMO opinion anyways. He might have two or three good games left and a bunch of terrible ones. I have Sproles on my bench and figure it's only a matter of time before LT breaks another hang nail. Personally I never liked the cry baby anyways so the sooner he goes away the better. SD will draft a rb early next year, damn fools should have moved LT and not Turner.