When it happened I agreed with Bill Belichick's call to go for it

[TD Ryan2 316]

your understanding of the game is minimal at best if you truely believe that.

 

so you're losing and you resort to personal attacks?

 

very weak.

 

 

please address the percentages.

please tell me what Manning's odds of marching down and scoring in the 2 minute drill are.

 

If you believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I understand your thinking and we'll agree to disagree.

If you do NOT believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I don't understand why you're defending your position.

[We Tigers 71]

Had the ball been on the 50 yard line... maybe you have an argument to go for it (I would still punt it) but when you have the ball inside your own 30 yard line, you risk giving Peyton Manning an incredibly short field and opening up the Colts entire playbook which is something alot of people don't even consider.

 

2:00 drill with 70 yards to go? pass, pass, pass, pass

 

2:00 drill with 28 yards to go? you can run any play.

This times a thousand. That draw for Addai couldn't have happened with 70 yards to go. Given that everyone besides Wayne was either dropping balls all night (Collie, Garcon) or effectively contained (Clark) AND that Manning had already been baited into a pair of picks, I don't know how you don't punt that ball. You cannot put your team in jeopardy like that when you have the lead.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

it's pure, calculating, odds. momentum, feelings, psychology... none of that matters. All that matters are you mathematical ODDS to win the game.

 

this just isn't true

 

if it were, we should just replace players with robots and play a game of chance.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

so you're losing and you resort to personal attacks?

 

very weak.

please address the percentages.

please tell me what Manning's odds of marching down and scoring in the 2 minute drill are.

 

If you believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I understand your thinking and we'll agree to disagree.

If you do NOT believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I don't understand why you're defending your position.

 

i obviously believe they are worse than 50% but your logic that only the percentages matter is VERY VERY flawed. I've already pointed out a number of reasons why there is more to consider than the simple odds.

[parrot 789]

This times a thousand. That draw for Addai couldn't have happened with 70 yards to go. Given that everyone besides Wayne was either dropping balls all night (Collie, Garcon) or effectively contained (Clark) AND that Manning had already been baited into a pair of picks, I don't know how you don't punt that ball. You cannot put your team in jeopardy like that when you have the lead.

 

3-S.Gostkowski kicks 68 yards from NE 30 to IND 2. 35-C.Simpson to IND 21 for 19 yards (38-B.Lockett, 58-P.Woods). 
1-10-IND 21 (4:07) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai to IND 33 for 12 yards (28-D.Butler, 51-J.Mayo).

1-10-IND 33 (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 17-A.Collie to IND 39 for 6 yards (28-D.Butler).

2-4-IND 39 (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 17-A.Collie to NE 44 for 17 yards (25-P.Chung).

1-10-NE 44 (3:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Collie. PENALTY on NE-28-D.Butler, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play.

1-10-NE 13 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark to NE 4 for 9 yards (28-D.Butler) [91-M.Pryor].

2-1-NE 4 (2:30) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Wayne.

3-1-NE 4 (2:27) 29-J.Addai right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

Drive length, 79 yards. Elapsed time, 1 minute, 45 seconds. Number of runs, 1, for the touchdown.

[jgcrawfish 232]

so you're losing and you resort to personal attacks?

 

very weak.

 

 

please address the percentages.

please tell me what Manning's odds of marching down and scoring in the 2 minute drill are.

 

If you believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I understand your thinking and we'll agree to disagree.

If you do NOT believe those odds are WORSE than 50%, then I don't understand why you're defending your position.

 

Percentages don't matter, at all. Percentages measure past performance, and just like in stock market commercials, are not a guarantee of future results. If you think that a % that features stats which are more often than not collected from plays where the game is not on the line are relevant to a do-or-die situation like that, well, then you're just as insignificant as the stats to which you cleave. I'm sorry, but but team A successfully converting a 4th and 1/2 a yard on the opponents 45 yrd line in the 1st quarter because they realize the futility of a punt from there is irrelevant to 4th and 2 on your own 28 when you're ahead and the game is on the line for your opponent. There's a distinct different, the Colts HAD to have that play, the Pats didn't. Every play the Colts played on that drive was a "must win" type play, with a 4 pt lead, the Pats were playing with house money. It's not the same, no matter what you and your ridiculous stats say.

[TD Ryan2 316]

i obviously believe they are worse than 50%

 

 

then we just plain disagree.

you don't think Manning's odds of scoring in the two minute drill were that high. I do.

 

thank you for answering honestly though.

[edjr 6,580]

3-S.Gostkowski kicks 68 yards from NE 30 to IND 2. 35-C.Simpson to IND 21 for 19 yards (38-B.Lockett, 58-P.Woods). 
1-10-IND 21 (4:07) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai to IND 33 for 12 yards (28-D.Butler, 51-J.Mayo).

1-10-IND 33 (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 17-A.Collie to IND 39 for 6 yards (28-D.Butler).

2-4-IND 39 (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 17-A.Collie to NE 44 for 17 yards (25-P.Chung).

1-10-NE 44 (3:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Collie. PENALTY on NE-28-D.Butler, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play.

1-10-NE 13 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark to NE 4 for 9 yards (28-D.Butler) [91-M.Pryor].

2-1-NE 4 (2:30) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Wayne.

3-1-NE 4 (2:27) 29-J.Addai right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

 

Drive length, 79 yards. Elapsed time, 1 minute, 45 seconds. Number of runs, 1, for the touchdown.

 

[jgcrawfish 232]

Drive length, 79 yards. Elapsed time, 1 minute, 45 seconds. Number of runs, 1, for the touchdown.

 

 

um, that was the drive BEFORE the 4th down play.

 

 

 

#  New England Patriots at 02:23
# 1-P.McAfee kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to end zone, Touchback.
# Timeout #2 by NE at 02:23.
# 1-10-NE 20 (2:23) (Shotgun) 33-K.Faulk up the middle to NE 20 for no gain (79-R.Brock).
# Timeout #1 by IND at 02:18.
# 2-10-NE 20 (2:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-W.Welker to NE 28 for 8 yards (27-J.Lacey, 55-C.Session).
# Timeout #2 by IND at 02:11.
[b]# 3-2-NE 28 (2:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 83-W.Welker (25-J.Powers).
# Timeout #3 by NE at 02:08.
# 4-2-NE 28 (2:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-K.Faulk to NE 29 for 1 yard (33-M.Bullitt). WATCH HIGHLIGHT
# Indianapolis Colts at 02:00[/b]

 

 

Blunder #1 by Belicheat...throwing on 3rd down. Incomplete pass killed the clock. Run the ball there and 24 more seconds go off the clock.

 

 

# 1-10-NE 29 (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to NE 14 for 15 yards (24-J.Wilhite).
[b]# 1-10-NE 14 (1:20) 29-J.Addai up the middle to NE 1 for 13 yards (24-J.Wilhite).[/b]
[b]# 1-1-NE 1 (:36) 29-J.Addai left tackle to NE 1 for no gain (75-V.Wilfork, 92-R.Brace).[/b]
# 2-1-NE 1 (:16) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

 

 

Two runs on the last drive there skippy, be sure and look at how much time goes off the clock.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

then we just plain disagree.

you don't think Manning's odds of scoring in the two minute drill were that high. I do.

 

thank you for answering honestly though.

 

we don't just plain disagree.

 

simple odds are not the only thing to consider.

 

As JGCraw already said, a 50% chance to convert on 4th and 2 from the 50 or opponents 40 yard line early in the game is not the same situation as 4th and 2 with the game on the line, deep in your own territory when you have a 2nd, equally "viable" option.

[We Tigers 71]

Drive length, 79 yards. Elapsed time, 1 minute, 45 seconds. Number of runs, 1, for the touchdown.

So you think they'd just do it again? Would there be another 31-yard PI penalty, too? Would the Patriots perhaps think about doing a little more to jam Collie so he can't keep getting open? Would there be no more pressure on Manning and his receivers since the clock would be reading 20 seconds, 19 seconds, 18 seconds at the end of that drive? Would the Patriots not do anything differently?

 

The past doesn't matter here except for some very broad trending. Manning had two very good, fast, length-of-field TD drives. If you're guaranteeing that he'd have another, you must really think your team sucks.

[jgcrawfish 232]

we don't just plain disagree.

 

simple odds are not the only thing to consider.

 

As JGCraw already said, a 50% chance to convert on 4th and 2 from the 50 or opponents 40 yard line early in the game is not the same situation as 4th and 2 with the game on the line, deep in your own territory when you have a 2nd, equally "viable" option.

 

If Belicheat runs on 3rd down, even for no gain, the 2 minute warning hits or the Colts are forced to use that last timeout to stop the clock. Then you punt and Peyton has less than 2 minutes, and NO timeouts at that point. AND if Belicheat decides to go for it on 4th and the exact same play happens the exact same way, it gets reviewed by mandatory review by the booth and maybe overturned. Say what you want about Belicheat, but he blew it several times down the stretch culminating in a bad decision to go for it on 4th down.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

And again, the best part of all of this is had the Patriots punted the ball away and lost to an 80 yard, 2 minute drive by Manning, you would all be here saying it was the right call.

 

you would be pointing to the fact Clark has been held in check all night and you had picked Manning off twice and he had a long field.

 

In the end you would chalk it up to Manning being a great QB but im certain none of you would be clamoring that they should have gone for it on 4th and 2 from their own 28 because of the "great odds".

[donhaas 18]

You guys need to think this over as you try to compare this to the league-wide 4th down percentage.....

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, but you have to imagine a huge, huge, huge percentage of the 4th down league-wide success statistics are 4th and inches where the QB easily sneaks the inches.

 

That wasn't the case here.....

 

You have to think the second-biggest situation (although surely not close to the first) is scrub team starters down 37-10 in the dwindling minutes against 2nd and 3rd teamers successfully converting fourth downs....

 

That wasn't the case here....

 

These two situations, which make up the majority of your fourth-down statistics, skew your fourth-down success rate considerably....

 

 

 

You picked off Peyton twice, you've made him punt the ball more times than I've seen Indi put all year long....

 

Make him go 80 yards with one time out. One bad snap, one INT, one sack even..... ends the game....

 

Not being able to go 70-80 yards in less than 2 minutes against your Super Bowl caliber defense also ends the game.

[TD Ryan2 316]

we don't just plain disagree.

 

simple odds are not the only thing to consider.

 

As JGCraw already said...

 

I'm realizing this the more and more you two type into this thread.

There is a lot of emotion involved, a lot of psychology and anger.

It really is becoming clearer and clearer with each post why the facts and odds are not the deciding factor for some of you.

[TD Ryan2 316]

You guys need to think this over as you try to compare this to the league-wide 4th down percentage.....

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, but you have to imagine a huge, huge, huge percentage of the 4th down league-wide success statistics are 4th and inches where the QB easily sneaks the inches.

 

That wasn't the case here.....

 

this is a valid counter point.

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

I'm realizing this the more and more you two type into this thread.

There is a lot of emotion involved, a lot of psychology and anger.

It really is becoming clearer and clearer with each post why the facts and odds are not the deciding factor for some of you.

 

i think you probably feel that way because i said you have little understanding of the game.

 

while maybe i shouln't have said that, I think its pretty evident.

 

its just my opinion that anyone who thinks past statistics and percentages are the only things that matter on a play, is way off base.

 

for what its worth, the outcome of the game mattered very little to me. However, as a football fan, I find it insane that anyone could defend that coaching mistake.

[donhaas 18]

this is a valid counter point.

 

Don't get me wrong... I love the call... and as a football fan I don't ever want to see my punt.... Ever...

 

But that's why I'm a fan; and not a coach....

[parrot 789]

um, that was the drive BEFORE the 4th down play.

 

I'm fully aware of when it was. It was the previous drive, the one where the PASSED their way down the field (aided by a bs PI call) and scored on a short run. You know, exactly the kind of scenario they would have been faced with if the Pats had punted.

 

Blunder #1 by Belicheat...throwing on 3rd down. Incomplete pass killed the clock. Run the ball there and 24 more seconds go off the clock.

Then again, if they complete the pass, like Brady does 65%ish of the time, we ain't having this conversation. Hindsight sure is handy though.

 

Two runs on the last drive there skippy, be sure and look at how much time goes off the clock.

I know how many runs there were on the last drive. The short field gave them that luxury, no one is questioning that. The question is how unthinkable was it that they might have driven down a long field without much in the way of running plays, in the time left, and without using many timeouts. The previous drive - the one I posted - would suggest that it wasn't all that unthinkable, seeing as how it had JUST FOCKING HAPPENED TWO FOCKING MINUTES AGO. HTH...

 

Skippy.

[jgcrawfish 232]

I'm realizing this the more and more you two type into this thread.

There is a lot of emotion involved, a lot of psychology and anger.

It really is becoming clearer and clearer with each post why the facts and odds are not the deciding factor for some of you.

 

And each time you post something like this, you get less and less credibility. You are dead set on your "my statistics support my argument" theme, but in fact, they don't. Again, a 53% 4th down season conversion rate matters not when you're playing your arch-rival and you have their backs against the wall. Again, the Pats didn't have to have that play, but Indy did. If you want stats, go back to the one they showed last night, about how the last three meetings were won by the team that trailed in the 4th quarter. All the urgency, all the fear was with Indy. I've admitted that if I were a coach, I'd like to think I'd be the kind that didn't want to play it safe. I'd shun the punt as much as possible. But in this case I go and tell my kicker I'll give him $1000 out of my own pocket if he can kick the ball to the Colts endzone and a $1000 for each second of hangtime over 4 seconds. The point being, boom this thing away and give the Colts as much green in front of them as you can get.

[jgcrawfish 232]

this is a valid counter point.

 

why is it valid when he makes it but "hate" when I made it previously???

[WhiteWonder 2,734]

facts and odds are not the deciding factor for some of you.

 

I like to also factor in the human element since football is a game played by men.

 

Unless your statistical samples only include 4th and 2 situations against the Colts with the same exact personel on the field in the same high pressure situation... they become nothing more than a loose guideline.

[edjr 6,580]

You guys need to think this over as you try to compare this to the league-wide 4th down percentage.....

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, but you have to imagine a huge, huge, huge percentage of the 4th down league-wide success statistics are 4th and inches where the QB easily sneaks the inches.

 

That wasn't the case here.....

 

You have to think the second-biggest situation (although surely not close to the first) is scrub team starters down 37-10 in the dwindling minutes against 2nd and 3rd teamers successfully converting fourth downs....

 

That wasn't the case here....

 

These two situations, which make up the majority of your fourth-down statistics, skew your fourth-down success rate considerably....

You picked off Peyton twice, you've made him punt the ball more times than I've seen Indi put all year long....

 

Make him go 80 yards with one time out. One bad snap, one INT, one sack even..... ends the game....

 

Not being able to go 70-80 yards in less than 2 minutes against your Super Bowl caliber defense also ends the game.

 

Excellent point Donhaas.

 

I still like the decision to go for it, I just hate the play and the execution of it

[FeelingMN 273]

You guys need to think this over as you try to compare this to the league-wide 4th down percentage.....

 

I don't have the stats in front of me, but you have to imagine a huge, huge, huge percentage of the 4th down league-wide success statistics are 4th and inches where the QB easily sneaks the inches.

 

4th and 26

[We Tigers 71]

I'll defer to KSK for my final thoughts on the matter:

Know what other genius coach would have made that ballsy call, Boston fans? Mike Martz.

[McPhreak 0]

If I'm Belichick, I put the game in the hands of my HOF QB instead of in the hands of their HOF QB. How about we put the blame on Kevin Faulk who should have run a 5 yard out instead of a 2 yard out.

 

Some of you guys act like you're surprised Belichick went for it on 4th down as if he's all of a sudden turned into this egotistical gambling machine when in fact he's been that way all along.

[cribdog 0]

I thought it was the right call, but that is because I was rooting against the Pats.

 

If you think you can't stop Peyton going the length of the field, then why do you kick deep on kick-offs? Seems to me that if you think he is gonna score anyways, you should always onside kick and try to keep the ball. It makes just as much sense as going for it on 4th and 2 at your own 28.

[edjr 6,580]

If I'm Belichick, I put the game in the hands of my HOF QB instead of in the hands of their HOF QB. How about we put the blame on Kevin Faulk who should have run a 5 yard out instead of a 2 yard out.

 

Some of you guys act like you're surprised Belichick went for it on 4th down as if he's all of a sudden turned into this egotistical gambling machine when in fact he's been that way all along.

 

[donhaas 18]

4th and 26

 

I enjoy your sense of humor ; although not particularly being the target of it

[parrot 789]

If I'm Belichick, I put the game in the hands of my HOF QB instead of in the hands of their HOF QB. How about we put the blame on Kevin Faulk who should have run a 5 yard out instead of a 2 yard out.

Faulk's route was fine, if he catches the ball cleanly, they have the first down.

[FeelingMN 273]

If I'm Belichick, I put the game in the hands of my HOF QB instead of in the hands of their HOF QB. How about we put the blame on Kevin Faulk who should have run a 5 yard out instead of a 2 yard out.

 

Some of you guys act like you're surprised Belichick went for it on 4th down as if he's all of a sudden turned into this egotistical gambling machine when in fact he's been that way all along.

 

I've been watching football a long time....a lot of us have seen plenty of games over the years. Does anybody remember a similar situation playing out? I cannot recall another time when a team went for it on 4th down, on their side of the field, with the game in the balance. So, yeah....it's kinda surprising to see BB go for it....because neither he nor anyone else has done it as far as I can remember. And when you're doing sh!t no one else has done, yeah, you gotta look at it like it was an egotistical gamble.

[donhaas 18]

Excellent point Donhaas.

 

I still like the decision to go for it, I just hate the play and the execution of it

 

As a football fan, I love that decision.

 

Doesn't make it smart...

 

 

I agree that you are "disrespecting your defense" card can be overplayed and overanalyzed, but in this case.... it's right on... You can sugarcoat it all you want, but Belichek had zero faith in his defense to stop Manning from going an improbably 70-80 yards in less than 2 minutes with only one timeout.

 

Anything more than "zero faith" and Belichek punts away that ball.... No-brainer...

[KYSteel 0]

I think you can't really say it was the "right" call here. The what ifs and the %s mean nothing. The bottom line is: It didn't work, and it cost them the game.

 

Sure, maybe Manning does drive the field and score anyways, we don't know that.

 

So to me, maybe it wasn't the wrong call because they might have lost either way, but it wasn't the right call. It didn't get the 1st down. It gave the Colts a short field and the Pats lost because of it.

 

What's right about that?

[redtodd 7]

It was a bad move. It isn't like the Patriots were incapable of stopping Manning. They stopped him on several drives. Look at the previous seven possessions:

 

· Six plays, 79 yards, touchdown.

 

· One play, zero yards, interception.

 

· Five plays, 79 yards, touchdown.

 

· Six plays, 16 yards, punt.

 

· Four plays, 24 yards, interception.

 

· Five plays, 16 yards, punt.

 

· Three plays, no yards, punt.

 

Two of the last 7 drives were long successful drives (28.6%). Manning may have drove down the field and won it anyways, but I would rather him have to earn it than to do a risky gamble.

 

Bad call (and I strongly felt that way at the time).

[parrot 789]

Two of the last 3 drives were long successful drives (66.7%).

 

Fixed.

[Frank M 181]

Knowing Belichik, he probably did it for psychological advantage reasons, surmising that they'd see the Colts in the playoffs and he could fire up his guys by saying "They couldn't even stop us on 4th and 2 on their side of the field with the game on the line."

 

And for all of the guys who thought it was a good call, let me just say this: you're retards.

[donhaas 18]

It was a bad move. It isn't like the Patriots were incapable of stopping Manning. They stopped him on several drives. Look at the previous seven possessions:

Two of the last 7 drives were long successful drives (28.6%). Manning may have drove down the field and won it anyways, but I would rather him have to earn it than to do a risky gamble.

 

Bad call (and I strongly felt that way at the time).

 

 

Factor in crowd noise and the fact that the Colts could completely sell out to the 30-yard line (or should of been)... For the Colts, a 3 yard completion was the worst scenario; make them throw the low-percentage long ball..... if they have the time and they hit it for a TD, you're still better off then you were with the 3-yard completion....

 

This particular situation was low percentage

So we just can't look at the NFL 4th-down success rates and make a decision.... There were just too many factors.

This wasn't your normal 4th and inches QB sneak....

 

Much higher percentage was your defensive stoppage of Indi which they had previously done many times under circumstances much, much more favorable than 80 yards in less than 2 minutes, one timeout, and HAVING to get the touchdown.....

[edjr 6,580]

Factor in crowd noise and the fact that the Colts could completely sell out to the 30-yard line (or should of been)... For the Colts, a 3 yard completion was the worst scenario; make them throw the low-percentage long ball..... if they have the time and they hit it for a TD, you're still better off then you were with the 3-yard completion....

 

This particular situation was low percentage

So we just can't look at the NFL 4th-down success rates and make a decision.... There were just too many factors.

This wasn't your normal 4th and inches QB sneak....

 

Much higher percentage was your defensive stoppage of Indi which they had previously done many times under circumstances much, much more favorable than 80 yards in less than 2 minutes, one timeout, and HAVING to get the touchdown.....

 

in a must score TD situation, down 13 points on the previous drive the colts marched right down in less than 2 minutes and scored. the Patriots had just shown they were incapable of stopping Manning when they absolutely needed a stop.

 

Indianapolis Colts at 04:12 
3-S.Gostkowski kicks 68 yards from NE 30 to IND 2. 35-C.Simpson to IND 21 for 19 yards (38-B.Lockett, 58-P.Woods). 
1-10-IND 21 (4:07) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai to IND 33 for 12 yards (28-D.Butler, 51-J.Mayo).
1-10-IND 33 (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 17-A.Collie to IND 39 for 6 yards (28-D.Butler).
2-4-IND 39 (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 17-A.Collie to NE 44 for 17 yards (25-P.Chung).
1-10-NE 44 (3:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Collie. PENALTY on NE-28-D.Butler, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play. 
1-10-NE 13 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark to NE 4 for 9 yards (28-D.Butler) [91-M.Pryor].
2-1-NE 4 (2:30) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Wayne.
3-1-NE 4 (2:27) 29-J.Addai right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

[parrot 789]

Factor in crowd noise and the fact that the Colts could completely sell out to the 30-yard line (or should of been)... For the Colts, a 3 yard completion was the worst scenario; make them throw the low-percentage long ball..... if they have the time and they hit it for a TD, you're still better off then you were with the 3-yard completion....

 

This particular situation was low percentage

So we just can't look at the NFL 4th-down success rates and make a decision.... There were just too many factors.

This wasn't your normal 4th and inches QB sneak....

 

Much higher percentage was your defensive stoppage of Indi which they had previously done many times under circumstances much, much more favorable than 80 yards in less than 2 minutes, one timeout, and HAVING to get the touchdown.....

 

Where do we factor in that Chris Hanson has one of the worst net punting averages in the league at around 35 yards per? How long does it take to Manning to grab that 35 yards back with the Pats likely playing a soft zone and giving away the underneath? 2/3 plays, 20-25 seconds maybe? That's my guess. So basically you're eschewing a good chance to likely salt the game away to burn 25 seconds off the clock and very possibly be right back where you started. The Pats D still had a chance to stop them and they failed pretty miserably, with Indy having plenty of time to burn. I really think there is a good chance that it would have played out pretty similarly if they had punted it away.

[McPhreak 0]

Faulk's route was fine, if he catches the ball cleanly, they have the first down.

 

Obviously it wasn't. If he ran 5 yards instead of 2 then catching the ball cleanly wouldn't have been an issue.